January 1 Start Time 6:15am

Should be sporty in the morning with wind slab hidden by 8" of new. At 12:30 today we just got all the front side open. So we should hit the Mill Valley with doubles in the morning and get skiers on it before a potenial warm period. So Happy New Year-Ski Deep Powder-Drink Rye Wiskey and never through one stick of dynomite where 12 will make a louder BOOM.

SPOT WEATHER FORECAST

12/31/2008 Weather Discussion: There won’t be much of a break before the next front hits the mountains tomorrow. The wind should begin to subside but still be blustery through the day. Long-term models show active winter weather continuing until early Friday morning when things will settle down. Friday and Saturday look pretty quiet for now, but there are more storms tracking in for Sunday/Monday. Forecast from Wednesday 4pm to Thursday 4am Precipitation .75 in. Water 6-10” in. Snow Temperatures Low 24 High 26 Winds 5-15 W Forecast for Thursday 4am to 4pm Precipitation .5 -.75 in. Water 4-8 in. Snow Temperatures Low 24 High 34 Winds 0-10 S TRENDS AND TIMING Precipitation: Moderate snow should continue through the night. A warm front will pass through midday tomorrow bringing a short period of wet heavy snow or even rain between 10am and 4pm. The main energy seems to be directed to the south of Snoqualmie pass so doesn’t look like we will get the brunt of the storm. Freezing levels: Freezing levels should remain low through the night. There is a 5000’ freezing level spike expected tomorrow mid morning. Freezing levels are then expected to drop back down soon after 4pm or so. Winds: A 90mph gust was recorded at the top of Tye Mill this morning – if you were wondering what the holdup was. The wind should slowly subside through the day with night skiing being pretty manageable. Winds are expected to swing south with tomorrow warm front and then NW with the following cold front. Another wind event will be possible tomorrow afternoon/evening, but it shouldn’t be as strong as today.

Start Time Wednesday 6:15am

Will try it again in the morning. Maybe at least ridge tops to get through the day. Might get interesting around Thursday with some warm up. Later Jon

SPOT WEATHER FORECAST

12/30/2008 Weather Discussion: It will be a well deserved break in the weather today but it won’t last long. There is another strong storm expected to hit the mountains late tonight and tomorrow bringing more wind and snow. Long-term models show another significant storm on Thursday evening and Friday – however there won’t be much of a break between these two systems. Thursday’s storm has a high freezing level spike that we will have to keep an eye on. Forecast from Tuesday 4pm to Wednesday 4am Precipitation .5 in. Water 6-8 in. Snow Temperatures Low 24 High 32 Winds 5-10 E Forecast for Wednesday 4am to 4pm Precipitation .5 in. Water 6-8 in. Snow Temperatures Low 24 High 16 Winds 10-20 Gust 40+ TRENDS AND TIMING Precipitation: Light snow should fall today with the main front hitting after 10pm tonight. Moderate snow should fall through the night and most of tomorrow. Early morning convergence zone development could bump up the snow totals a bit. Freezing levels: Freezing levels will spike up to 4000 - 4500’ with the arrival of the warm front, however, east flow should help to keep surface temperatures below the freezing mark. Freezing levels should fall below pass level after 2am and continue to fall to 2000’ by noon tomorrow. Winds: Light east wind will develop today and strengthen tonight. East flow will eventually give way to SW then Westerly wind as the cold front moves through early tomorrow morning. Another convergence wind event is possible for tomorrow - similar to yesterdays.

Tuesday Start Time 6:15am

Howdy, 6:15am start time Tuesday. Mill Valley openned this morning and already skied out, sorry.

SPOT WEATHER FORECAST

12/29/2008 Weather Discussion: A cold front will arrive today bringing more snow to the mountains for the today. There will be a slight break tomorrow as another system prepares its approach for Tuesday night/Wednesday. Long-term models show a strong NW storm track continuing to produce active winter weather well into the New Year. Forecast from Monday 4pm to Tuesday 4am Precipitation .25 in. Water 3-6” in. Snow Temperatures Low 20 High 24 Winds 5-15 W Gust 20 Forecast for Tuesday 4am to 4pm Precipitation lt.25 in. Water 1-3” in. Snow Temperatures Low 22 High 30 Winds 0-10 SE TRENDS AND TIMING Precipitation: A Puget Sound Convergence will develop behind the front enhancing snow fall through the day. (storm totals of 6-10” possible) Snow will begin to taper off after midnight – there will be a lull in the activity until the next front arrives sometime late tomorrow night or early Wednesday morning. Freezing levels: Freezing levels will trend down from 3500’ to below 2000’ with the passing of the front. Freezing levels will stay low through the night –Tuesday/Wednesday’s warm front will bring a spike in temps but not looking like it will reach 4000’ here at Stevens, but something to keep an eye on. Winds: As usual, we can expect some gust westerly’s with the convergence flow. Models are showing winds picking up through the day and staying pesky through the night. Gust to 40pmh not out of the question. Winds should taper during the early morning hours, and then swing SW to East.

Start Time 6:15am Monday 12/29/08

Start time 6:15am Sunday 12/28/08

SPOT WEATHER FORECAST

12/27/2008 Weather Discussion: The approaching warm front has stalled and is currently over the Olympics. This means we could still see some wind and possible a few degrees warmer before the day ends. Precipitation will continue through the weekend. Long-term models show a low pressure system in the Gulf of Alaska spinning cool, wet disturbances into the PNW well into next week. Forecast from Saturday 4pm to Sunday 4am Precipitation .5-.75 in. Water 6-10” in. Snow Temperatures Low 24 High 32 Winds 5-15 W Gust 20 Forecast for Sunday 4am to 4pm Precipitation .5 in. Water 4-6” in. Snow Temperatures Low 24 High 26 Winds 5-10 W TRENDS AND TIMING Precipitation: Moderate snow should continue today and tonight with a nice convergence flow well established. Snow should begin to taper to showers through tomorrow. Freezing levels: Freezing levels could trend slightly up today before they fall later this evening. Freezing levels should be well below pass level by midnight tonight if not before. Freezing levels should hover around 2500’ tomorrow. Winds: A moderate wind event is still possible as the front passes through the mountains in a few hours. Probable won’t get huge winds but we should expect some gusty periods this afternoon.

SPOT WEATHER FORECAST

12/26/2008 Weather Discussion: Snow will increase today as a major winter storm bears down on the PNW. Higher freezing levels and high winds will also be in the mix as this system pushes through tonight and tomorrow. Long-term models show cooler temperatures with a nice stream of moisture flowing into the mountains well into next week. Forecast from Friday 4pm to Saturday 4am Precipitation .5-.75 in. Water 8-12” in. Snow Temperatures Low 26 High 36 Winds 10 -20 W Gust 30+ Forecast for Saturday 4am to 4pm Precipitation .5 -.75 in. Water 6-8” in. Snow Temperatures Low 24 High 36 Winds 10 -20 Gust 40 TRENDS AND TIMING Precipitation: Snow will steadily increase today and become moderate to heavy after 4pm. Snow will become wet and heavy early tomorrow morning as a warm spike moves through. It will be possible to get a snow rain mix between 4am and noon. The precipitation should be all snow sometime afternoon. A Convergence Zone will develop tomorrow morning enhancing precipitation. Freezing levels: Freezing levels will trend up from 2000’ to 5000’ by 7am tomorrow morning. This spike in temps should be short live with freezing levels dropping back down below pass level by noon or soon after. Winds: Strong frontal winds will also accompany this system. The wind should start to kick in around midnight. Winds will start out as SW and swing west through the early morning hours. A Puget Sound Convergence will also develop tomorrow morning bringing consistent winds. Winds are expected to slowly taper off by 4pm.

Start Time 6:15am Satruday 12/27/08

Start Time Friday--7:30am

Boy Howdy, Index got 16" of snow in the last 24hrs and Stevens Pass got 9". Whats with that?? Rest up for a sporty weekend. 7:30 start time for Friday. Jon

SPOT WEATHER FORECAST

12/25/2008 Weather Merry Christmas Discussion: Snow showers will linger in the mountains until the next significant system brings heavy precipitation to the Cascades for the weekend. Long-term models show a steady stream of storms tracking toward the PNW for the next 6-10 days. Forecast from Thursday 4pm to Friday 4am Precipitation .10 in. Water 0-2 in. Snow Temperatures Low 16 High 22 Winds 0-5 W Forecast for Friday 4am to 4pm Precipitation Lt .10 in. Water trace in. Snow Temperatures Low 16 High 28 Winds 5-10 W TRENDS AND TIMING Precipitation: Snow showers will taper off through the day with little to no snow tomorrow. A major storm tracking toward the PNW will hit the mountains tomorrow afternoon. This system is packing a punch with possible storm totals of 1-4” of water. This system will start out as snow, possible turn to rain/snow mix, and then back to snow by Sunday. Freezing levels: Freezing levels will remain near sea level for the next 24 hours. Freezing levels will begin to rise with the arrival of tomorrow front. Freezing levels are expected to reach 4000’-5000’ early Saturday morning. This spike in temps hopefully won’t last long. The freezing are expected to fall back down below pass level Saturday night. Winds: Light Westerly’s will continue until Friday’s system arrives. Strong convergent winds will accompany Friday storm with +-40mph gust possible on Saturday.

Merry Christmas from Jon Andrews

How you doing? No control this morning. Nice forecast Meriwether, right on. Looks like an exciding storm cycle through the weekend on our contenintal snowpack in our meritime terrain with a maritime storm cycle on top.

Start Time 12-25-08

How you doin. 6:15 Start time for Thursday----Christmas

SPOT WEATHER FORECAST

12/24/2008 Weather Discussion: Cold and Snowy conditions will continue today with a relatively quiet Christmas day to follow. A strong storm is tracking in for Friday/Saturday which will bring warmer temperatures and heavy snow to the Cascades. This storm will be sporty with a mix of precipitation types and strong winds. Long-term models show multiple storms stacked out in the big pond which will bring a more typical NW weather pattern for the next week or so. More typical winter temperatures should also accompany this new active weather pattern. Forecast from Wednesday 4pm to Thursday 4am Precipitation .25-.5 in. Water 3-6 in. Snow Temperatures Low 10 High 18 Winds 5-10 E Forecast for Thursday 4am to 4pm Precipitation Lt .25 in. Water 1-3 in. Snow Temperatures Low 10 High 20 Winds 5-10 W TRENDS AND TIMING Precipitation: Today’s storm totals have been slightly upgrades to 8-10” of snow by midnight tonight. Unstable air will keep the threat of passing snow showers through Christmas day. The next storm is currently timing out to arrive sometime Friday afternoon. Freezing levels: Freezing levels trend up to 2000’ today and then fall back down to sea level or lower tonight. Low freezing levels will persist until Friday’s warm front brings them up to near pass level. Winds: Light east winds will slowly shift to westerly through the night. NW winds will strengthen tomorrow afternoon in response to Friday’s warm front. A strong westerly influence will keep gusty conditions in the mix through the weekend.

SPOT WEATHE FORECAST

12/23/2008 Weather Discussion: A somewhat unorganized winter storm will slide down the North West coast today bringing snow to the Cascades through tomorrow. Long-term models show another strong system moving in late Friday/Saturday with higher freezing levels. Forecast from Tuesday 4pm to Wednesday 4am Precipitation Lt .25 in. Water 1-3 in. Snow Temperatures Low 12 High 15 Winds 0-5 SE Forecast for Wednesday 4am to 4pm Precipitation .5 in. Water 4-6 in. Snow Temperatures Low 10 High 20 Winds 0-5 ESE TRENDS AND TIMING Precipitation: Very light snow will fall through the day with the main moisture front hitting during the ealry morning hours. Snow will continue tomorrow and begin to taper off Thursday. The unorganized nature of this system will probably be more shower like than steady snow. Freezing levels: Freezing levels will trend up from 500’ to 2000’ by tomorrow. Freezing levels are then expected to drop back down after the passing of the front sometime tomorrow afternoon/evening. Winds: Not much happening with the wind for the next few days. Light SE flow will persist through tomorrow. Westerly’s will take over on Thursday.

6:15 Start for Sunday 12/21/08

SPOT WEATHER FORECAST

12/20/2008 Weather Discussion: Burrrr! We should make it through most of the day before the real action starts. A strong winter storm will pummel the PNW tonight. We can look forward to snow as far down as sea level with high east winds pushing through the mountain passes tonight. Long-term models show dry and warmer weather for the first part of next week. Another system is currently tracking toward the coast for later in the week. Forecast from Saturday 4pm to Sunday 4am Precipitation .5- .75 in. Water 6-10 in. Snow Temperatures Low -5 High 5 Winds 15-30 E Gust 40+ Forecast for Sunday 4am to 4pm Precipitation .25 in. Water 4-6 in. Snow Temperatures Low 0 High 15 Winds 5-15 E tapering TRENDS AND TIMING Precipitation: We shouldn’t see much snow before 4pm today. Snow will intensify over night and continue through most of tomorrow. Precip models are showing the snow turning to showers after noon and then ending around 7pm. Freezing levels: The temperature trend is the big mystery with this storm. Warm air approaching the mountains from the west and cold air to the east will battle, thus creating a strong temperature gradient (hence the high winds). Freezing levels should trend up from sea level to 2500’ through the night and then drop back down to 1000’ tomorrow. Surface temperatures here at the Pass are anyones guess. Winds: We can expect the wind to slowly pick up through the day and really start cranking after 4pm - gust to 50+mph possible. The wind event should be over by mid morning.

SPOT WEATHE FORECAST

12/19/2008 Weather Discussion: This cold dry weather will stick around for 2 more days. A strong winter storm tracking toward the PNW will bring warmer temperatures and snow late Saturday night and Sunday. This system is complex on many levels so confidence in the details is low at this point. Long-term models show snow Sunday and Monday, then dry for a few days with another storm developing for the second part of the week. Forecast from Friday 4pm to Saturday 4am Precipitation 0 in. Water 0 in. Snow Temperatures Low 0 High 12 Winds 0-5 SE Forecast for Saturday 4am to 4pm Precipitation Lt .10 in. Water Trace in. Snow Temperatures Low -4 High 10 Winds 10-20 E Gust 20+ TRENDS AND TIMING Precipitation: The air mass will remain dry through most of tomorrow. The warm front approaching is currently expected to hit the mountains after 7pm tomorrow evening. An early estimate of storm total are around 8-12” by Monday morning Freezing levels: Freezing levels will remain below sea level until tomorrow night. Negative single digits lows are expected tonight. Freezing levels will then trend up to 3000’ by Sunday morning. Winds: A strong east /west gradient will develop tomorrow afternoon producing very strong east winds. Sustained winds of 20 -30mph with gust to 50 will be possible tomorrow night.

SPOT WEATHER FORECAST

12/18/2008 Weather Discussion: Snow should taper off tonight with cold air from the north to follow. Friday and Saturday will be cold and dry. A return to normal temperatures is expected over the weekend. Long-term models show a nice NW storm track setting up for Sunday – this should bring the potential for more snow and warmer temps early next week. Have a good opening day. Forecast from Thursday 4pm to Friday 4am Precipitation .10 in. Water 0-1 in. Snow Temperatures Low 8 High 15 Winds 0 -5 W Forecast for Friday 4am to 4pm Precipitation 0 in. Water 0 in. Snow Temperatures Low 0 High 10 Winds 5-10 NW TRENDS AND TIMING Precipitation: Snow showers will taper off this evening. No additional precipitation expected until Sunday. Freezing levels: Freezing levels will trend down from 1000’ today to well below sea level tomorrow. A warming trend will accompany the front on Sunday. Winds: Light winds will swing from westerly to northwest overnight.

6:15 Snow Control Start - Thursday Dec. 18th

Early Start Thursday Dec. 18th

avalanche news

Aspen Backcountry December 14 2008 1 skier caught, buried, and killed PRELIMINARY REPORT Sometime during the afternoon hours of Sunday December 14th, a lone backcountry skier was caught and killed in an avalanche in the Richmond Ridge area, just south of Aspen Mountain. The victim was last seen around 1 pm while skiing at the resort. Sometime between 1 and 3 pm he exited the resort through a backcountry gate heading southeast of the ski area and entered backcountry terrain in an area known as “Powerline”. Since he was traveling alone, the exact times and events leading up to the accident are not known. US Avalanche Fatalities Updated 12/15/2008 2008-09 SEASON 2 fatalities in the US Activity Fatalities Skier 1 Snowboarder 0 Snowmobiler 0 Snowshoer/Climber/Hiker 0 In bounds skier/boarder 1 Other 0 Date Location State Description Link 12/14 Near Aspen Ski Area CO 1 skier caught, buried, and killed CAIC Report 12/14 Snowbird Ski Area UT 1 inbounds skier caught, buried, and killed UAC Report 2007-08 SEASON 36 fatalities in the US for more info: http://avalanche.state.co.us/pub/accidents_co.php?accident=20081214_aspen

SPOT WEATHER FORECAST

12/17/2008 Weather Discussion: The snow should continue to fly through tomorrow morning. A cold air mass flowing in from Canada will bring another round of very cold and dry weather Friday and Saturday. Long-term models show nice system taking aim at the PNW Sunday/Monday. This system is coming from the NW, a more typical storm track for us. This is looking promising of bringing warmer temps and a good dose of snow. Game on. Forecast from Wednesday 4pm to Thursday 4am Precipitation .5 in. Water 4-6” in. Snow Temperatures Low 8 High 18 Winds 5-15 W Forecast for Thursday 4am to 4pm Precipitation Lt .10 in. Water 0-2 in. Snow Temperatures Low 6 High 10 Winds 0-10 W TRENDS AND TIMING Precipitation: Original water equivalent totals of .75+ are still on track for today. A showery pattern will develop tomorrow morning and taper off through the day - Precipitation should over by 4pm. Freezing levels: Freezing levels will trend down from 1500’ to sea level tonight. Freezing levels will remain very low through Saturday. Winds: The current east flow should be short lived as the center of the low passes over. A return to westerly flow is expected this afternoon. Wind speeds should be light tomorrow as the cold NE air moves in.

SPOT WEATHER FORECAST

12/16/2008 Weather Discussion: One more clear cold day before a low pressure system slides down from the interior north. This will bring snow to the PNW on Wednesday and Thursday. Long-term models show a return of cold dry arctic air for the weekend. There are early signs of some potential snow late in the weekend or early next week. Forecast from Tuesday 4pm to Wednesday 4am Precipitation .10 in. Water 0-2 in. Snow Temperatures Low 8 High 15 Winds 5-10 W Forecast for Wednesday 4am to 4pm Precipitation .75 in. Water 8-10 in. Snow Temperatures Low 15 High 20 Winds 10-20 W Gusty 40 TRENDS AND TIMING Precipitation: Snow should develop during the early morning hours and increase through the day. Snow should turn to showers Wednesday night and then slowly taper off through Thursday. Storm totals are currently calculating out to be around 8-12” by the end of Thursday. Freezing levels: Freezing levels will trend up tonight from Sea Level to a whopping 1500’. Freezing temps will then drop back to sea level by Thursday morning. Cold temps expected to remain entrenched through the weekend. Winds: Westerly winds will override the east flow later today. Strong westerly winds are expected to pick up and become gusty with the approaching system – could get ridge top wind gust to 40mph tonight and tomorrow. Wind should begin to taper off later in the day.

Steve Saugen's 30th Birthday

Ok, he's not a patroler anymore but think about all those years of service.... Either way we will be celebrating his 30th on this Saturday evening the 20th with a big, very big, Saugen fire. River Rd, Plain - you cant miss it. Cheers

SPOT WEATHER

12/15/2008 Weather Discussion: Clear, dry, cold, windy conditions (see wind chill chart below) will continue through tomorrow. A system dropping down from the north will bring snow to the PNW on Wednesday – this storm has similar characteristics as the last one so hopefully it will bring another good dose of snow. Long-term models show snow lasting through Thursday with the next potential snow event happening Sunday/Monday. These unusually cold temperatures are expected to continue through the weekend. Forecast from Monday 4pm to Tuesday 4am Precipitation 0 in. Water 0 in. Snow Temperatures Low -4 High 10 -20 wind chill Winds 5-15 E Forecast for Tuesday 4am to 4pm Precipitation 0 in. Water 0 in. Snow Temperatures Low 0 High 20 Winds 5-10 E TRENDS AND TIMING Precipitation: No precipitation expected until early Wednesday morning. It’s a bit too early to bank on snow totals for Wed/Thurs, but, for now it looks to be in the 6-10” range. Tomorrows weather models will dial those numbers in a bit better. Freezing levels: Tonight will be the coldest temperatures thus far. Freezing levels will slowly trend up from well below sea level to 2000’ late Tuesday. Freezing levels are expected to stay well below pass level through the week. Winds: Brisk east winds will increase today and tonight. Tomorrow, east winds will taper and shift westerly in response to Wednesday’s front.

SPOT WEATHE FORECAST

12/12/2008 Weather Discussion: Today’s winter storm is right on schedule with snow currently falling at the Pass. The snow should intensify through the night. Cold air will then push in from the northern interior bringing cold dry weather to the PNW by Sunday. Long-term models show snow showers lingering in the mountains through Sunday. Cold dry arctic air will then settle over PNW for a very chilly week ahead. Forecast from Friday 4pm to Saturday 4am Precipitation .75 -1 in. Water 10 -14” in. Snow Temperatures Low 20 High 26 Winds 5-15 W Gusty Forecast for Saturday 4am to 4pm Precipitation .25 in. Water 2-4 in. Snow Temperatures Low 10 High 20 Winds 0-10 NE TRENDS AND TIMING Precipitation: Snow will intensify through the day. A Puget Sound convergence will enhance *orographics this evening. Snow will begin to taper after 10am tomorrow. Storm totals will depend where the center of the low tracks. (which the models disagree on) If the center tracks north of Stevens Pass we could see 2 feet of snow by the end of tomorrow, but if it tracks directly over us then we will get less accumulation. For now storm totals are calculating out to be 12 -16”. A weak showery pattern will persist through Sunday which could provide a few more inches of very cold dry snow. Freezing levels: Freezing levels will trend down from 3500’ to 2000’ by 4am tomorrow. Then freezing levels will continue to drop reaching sea level later in the day. Cold NE air will follow in late Saturday night bringing single digit temps for Sunday. Winds: There is still a question whether the high winds will affect the center of the state – they seem to be targeting the coast and the southern lowlands. The best chance of high winds will be during the convergence period this evening. Wind will shift to NE during the day tomorrow. *Weather fun fact: orographics – how weather is influenced by the mountains. As air moves into mountains it has to rise right. Rising air cools, moisture condenses, and you get rain or snow. This is the best set up for squeezing the maximum amount of moisture out of an air mass.

STOT WEATHER FORECAST

12/11/2008 Weather Discussion: Today will be pleasant in preparation of a strong winter storm bearing down on the PNW. This storm is packing very high winds and snow along very cold arctic air in tow. The southern part of the region will get the brunt of the activity. Long-term models show this storm being over sometime early Sunday morning. Then there will be a cold dry period through the middle of next week. Forecast from Thursday 4pm for Friday 4am Precipitation 0 in. Water 0 in. Snow Temperatures Low 28 High 34 Winds 0-10 W SW Forecast for Friday 4am to 4pm Precipitation .25 in. Water 2-4” in. Snow Temperatures Low 24 High 30 Winds 5-15 SW gusty TRENDS AND TIMING Precipitation: We should start to see the snow fly sometime tomorrow. Snow will intensify through the night with the best hours of accumulation between 4pm and 4am. Snow should taper to showers Saturday night with drying on Sunday. Storm totals are currently calculating out to be about a 1” of water which will be somewhere around a foot of snow by Saturday 4pm. Convergence zone influence could push those numbers up a bit. Freezing levels: Freezing levels will trend down from 4000’ to 2000’ tomorrow and eventually reaching sea level by Saturday. Cold temps will remain entrenched through the middle of next week.

SPOT WEATHER FORECAST

12/10/2008 Weather Discussion: Radar shows a few light showers lingering in the mountains. The atmosphere should begin to dry out as high pressure builds over the PNW during the next few days. Long- term models shows a nice cool wet system arriving Friday. This will be a good snow producer for the mountains. Cold arctic air will then flow down from the Frazer River valley flooding the state with unseasonable cold temperatures. Could see low temps near or below 0f by Sunday/Monday. (protect those pipes) Forecast from Wednesday 4pm to Thursday 4am Precipitation 0 in. Water 0 in. Snow Temperatures Low 28 High 32 Winds 0-5 W Forecast for Thursday 4am to 4pm Precipitation 0 in. Water 0 in. Snow Temperatures Low 28 High 30 Winds 0-5 N TRENDS AND TIMING Precipitation: The light precip. should be done sometime after 4pm today. Dry conditions will persist until Friday morning. Friday’s storm is just a bit too far out to be confident in snow totals, so I will leave that for tomorrow. Freezing levels: Freezing levels will slowly trend down from 5000’ to 4000’ overnight. Freezing levels should hover near pass level tomorrow before they fall further on Friday. Winds: Light westerly winds will shift to north then east tomorrow. There could be a much more interesting wind issues during the weekend.

SPOT WEATHER FORECAST

12/9/2008 Weather Discussion: A warm front pushing through the state will bring light precipitation and rising temperatures to the mountains today and tomorrow. Long term models show Thursday and Friday as relatively dry before the big change. This change is the polar jet shifting its pattern to a NNW flow. This will bring us very cold air from the Gulf of Alaska by the weekend. There is a storm currently tracking toward the PNW for late Friday – If this holds its course, and mixes well with the cold air, it could be a good snow producer. Forecast from Tuesday 4pm to Wednesday 4am Precipitation .25 in. Water 1-3 in. Snow Temperatures Low 32 High 34 Winds 5-15 W Gust 20+ Forecast for Wednesday 4am to 4pm Precipitation Lt .10 in. Water 0 in. Snow Temperatures Low 34 High 40 Winds 5-10 W tapering TRENDS AND TIMING Precipitation: Hopefully we will pick up a few inches of snow before it turns to rain. The rain should be light and eventually taper to showers through tomorrow. Dry for Thursday/Friday. Freezing levels: Freezing levels should trend up from 3500’ to 5000’ by tomorrow morning. Models show freezing levels reaching pass level late this afternoon. Freezing levels will begin to descend reaching sea level by the weekend. Winds: The wind should pick up as the warm front approaches the mountains later this afternoon/evening. Could see some gust to 20 -25mph tonight. Wind should taper as front moves east early tomorrow morning.

SPOT WEATHER FORECAST FOR STEVENS PASS

12/8/2008 Weather Discussion: Today will be dry as high pressure builds over the mountains. The center of the high is expected to drift south tomorrow, this could allow a similar event as yesterday, hopefully bringing some more snow to the mountains. Long-term models shows Thursday and Friday as dry with a slow change to a much cooler pattern by the weekend. This is a bit far out to have much confident in the timing but for now there is hope for snow late Friday/Saturday… Forecast from Monday 4pm to Tuesday 4am Precipitation 0 in. Water 0 in. Snow Temperatures Low 30 High 32 Winds 0-5 W Forecast for Tuesday 4am to 4pm Precipitation .10-.25 in. Water 1-3 in. Snow Temperatures Low 30 High 34 Winds 5-15 W gusty TRENDS AND TIMING Precipitation: A drying atmosphere will move in for the next +- 24hrs. A system from the north will sag down around noon tomorrow bringing snow at first, then probably changing to rain by Wednesday. Freezing levels: Freezing levels will trend up from 3000’ to 4000’ by 4pm tomorrow. Freezing levels are expected to then rise to 5000’ on Wednesday. Winds: Light westerly winds will persist through the night. The approaching warm front will push wind speeds up tomorrow. Could see some gusty winds 20 30+mph late tomorrow.

STEVEN PASS SPOT WEATHER FORECAST

12/5/2008 Weather Discussion: High clouds will develop today in response to a warm air invasion from the west. A sagging disturbance from the north will bring some rain and then eventually snow to the mountains for the remainder of the weekend. Long-term models show drying on Monday with another system tracking toward the PNW for the middle of the week. Models don’t currently agree on the timing or details for next week, so I will leave the guessing out for now. Forecast from Friday 4pm to Saturday 4am Precipitation .10 in. Water 0 in. Snow Temperatures Low 34 High 40 Winds 0-5 W Forecast for Saturday 4am to 4pm Precipitation .10 in. Water 1-3 in. Snow Temperatures Low 32 High 40 Winds 5-15 W TRENDS AND TIMING Precipitation: A possible short lived frontal wave could bring a few rain drops this afternoon/evening. But for the most part no precipitation expected until Tomorrow afternoon. The timing of the moisture is currently after 2pm tomorrow – We could see some rain to start but that is expected to slowly turn to snow through the night. Freezing levels: Freezing levels will trend up from 2500’ to 6000’ or higher by tonight. Freezing levels are expected to slowly lower tomorrow afternoon to around 4000’. They should be well below Pass level by Sunday morning. Winds: Winds are expected to increase tomorrow afternoon with the arrival of the cold front. Not expecting any huge winds with this system.

Stevens Pass Spot Weather Forecast

12/3/2008 Weather Discussion: Building high pressure will bring dry weather to the PNW well into the weekend. Temperatures will also begin to rise as warm air moves in from the south on Friday. Long-term models show the first signs of change towards the end of the weekend. The northern jet begins to slide south which could set up some winter storms sometime next week. Keep your fingers crossed and do the snow dance... Forecast from Wednesday 4pm to Thursday 4am Precipitation 0 in. Water 0 in. Snow Temperatures Low 24 High 30 Winds 0-5 E Forecast for Thursday 4am to 4pm Precipitation 0 in. Water 0 in. Snow Temperatures Low 22 High 30 Winds 5-10 E TRENDS AND TIMING Precipitation: The atmosphere is quickly drying and stabilizing which will bring an end to any lingering moisture. No precipitation expected until the weekend. Freezing levels: The surface temps will be interesting. Cold NE air flowing in from Canada will battle with the warm advection happening to our west – a good recipe for an inversion cloud layer. Freezing levels should trend up from 2500’ to 6000’ by Friday, then even higher for the weekend. Winds: East/offshore flow is currently developing and should strengthen through the night. A SW warm front should overtake the east flow on Friday.

Steven Pass Weather

12/2/2008 Weather Discussion: Light rain will remain over the Cascade Crest through the day. Building high pressure will bring a dry Wednesday. Long-term models show high pressure lasting through Friday with a change in the pattern by the weekend. Forecast from Tuesday 4pm to Wednesday 4am Precipitation .10 in. Water trace in. Snow Temperatures Low 28 High 36 Winds 0-5 W Forecast for Wednesday 4am to 4pm Precipitation 0 in. Water 0 in. Snow Temperatures Low 28 High 34 Winds 0-5 SE TRENDS AND TIMING Precipitation: Rain showers will slowly taper off after 4pm today. The rest of the week will be dry. Freezing levels: Freezing levels will trend down from 4500’ this afternoon to 3000’ or lower tomorrow. Air streaming in from the Canadian interior will bring cold temperatures to eastern Washington on Thursday. Winds: A slow shift to east/offshore flow will develop through tomorrow. Stiff east wind will blow through the Pass on Thursday.

Stevens Pass Weather

12/1/2008 Weather Discussion: A cold front approaching the coast will bring rain to the mountains tonight. High pressure will begin to build tomorrow afternoon for a return to dry weather for the 2nd half of the week. Long-term models show the possibility of the high pressure breaking down late in the week. This should allow the jet stream to dig south and set up the recipe for a NW storm track. The timing is too far out to bank on the details, but there is some hope for some snow through the weekend. Forecast from Monday 4pm to Tuesday 4am Precipitation .25 in. Water 0 in. Snow Temperatures Low 34 High 40 Winds 0-10 SW Forecast for Tuesday 4am to 4pm Precipitation .25 in. Water 0 in. Snow Temperatures Low 32 High 38 Winds 5-10 W TRENDS AND TIMING Precipitation: Rain should begin this afternoon and increase after 4pm. Rain, with a little snow mixed in, should continue through most of tomorrow. The precipitation should be over soon after sundown tomorrow. It is possible to get a short period of snow toward the tail end of this system tomorrow afternoon or evening. Freezing levels: The current 8000’ freezing levels will slowly drop in the wake of the cold front. Freezing levels will reach 4000’ sometime tomorrow. A cool air mass filtering down from Canada’s Frazer River will drop freezing levels east of the crest tomorrow night and Wednesday. Winds: SW flow will slowly swing westerly by tomorrow. The clock wise swing will continue to eventually settle on a east flow pattern by Thursday.