January 31, 2009

Start Time 7:30am Sunday Feb 1, 2009

SPOT WEATHER FORECAST

1/31/2009 Weather Discussion: Whoa - a crazy night last night with 75 mph ridge top winds, rain, freezing rain and snow – nice job night crew keeping everyone safe. The cold front has passed, so we should settle in to some nice snow showers for the rest of the day. A warm front is currently tracking in for tomorrow evening. Long-term models show high pressure building on Monday, which will bring dry and sunny weather to the PNW for the first part of next week. A sign of another weather event is showing up for late next week. Forecast from Saturday 4pm to Sunday 4am Precipitation Lt. 10 in. Water 0-2 in. Snow Temperatures Low 20 High 26 Winds 5-10 SW Forecast for Sunday 4am to 4pm Precipitation Lt. 10 in. Water trace in. Snow Temperatures Low 22 High 26 Winds 0-5 SW TRENDS AND TIMING Precipitation: Light snow showers will slowly taper off through the next 12 hours. A warm front will approach the mountains tomorrow afternoon bringing more snow and possible rain before things dry out again on Monday. Freezing levels: Freezing levels will slowly trend up from the current 2000’ to pass level after 4pm tomorrow. Freezing levels are expected to climb to 5 or 6000’ on Monday and then even higher on Tuesday. Winds: The wind is currently tapering and should not be much of a nuisance for the remainder of the weekend.

January 30, 2009

SPOT WEATHER FORECAST

1/30/2009 Weather Discussion: A beautiful morning with good snow conditions. High clouds just appearing to the west are signs of the approaching cold front. This system is weak but should still bring a little snow for the morning. Long-term models show another system for Sunday/Monday and then another dry period for the middle of the week. Forecast from Friday 4pm to Saturday 4am Precipitation .15 in. Water 1-3 in. Snow Temperatures Low 20 High 32 Winds 5-15 W gusty Forecast for Saturday 4am to 4pm Precipitation .10 in. Water 0-3 in. Snow Temperatures Low 20 High 24 Winds 5-15 W gusty TRENDS AND TIMING Precipitation: Should start to see the white stuff falling sometime after 4pm today. Light snow showers will continue with some dry periods thrown in there through the weekend. Freezing levels: Freezing levels will trend down today reaching pass level around 4pm. Freezing levels are expected to fall to 1000’ or lower over night. Warming on Sunday. Winds: Gusty winds will accompany the cold front tonight, so expect blustery condition. Shouldn’t be a show stopper but could see a few gust to 40mph. Winds should taper by midmorning.

Start Time Saturday 31st--7:30am

The skiing is even better than yesterday.

January 29, 2009

Start Time Friday 30th--7:30am

The skiing is slowly improving. Will see what the warm up brings.

SPOT WEATHER FORECAST

1/29/2009 Weather Discussion: A short live dry period will happen today and tomorrow as high pressure brushes the southern portion of the state. A cold front will arrive sometime tomorrow evening bringing snow to the mountains for Saturday. Long-term models show Sunday being dry. Beyond that, there are still questions on how the storms will track in. Forecast from Thursday 4pm to Friday 4am Precipitation 0 in. Water 0 in. Snow Temperatures Low 26 High 34 Winds 0-5 W Forecast for Friday 4am to 4pm Precipitation .10 in. Water trace in. Snow Temperatures Low 26 High 40 Winds 5-15 SW TRENDS AND TIMING Precipitation: The next 24 hours will be dry due to building high pressure to our south. A cold front is expected to arrive after 4pm tomorrow. So, snow for Saturday morning but amounts are still a question – I will wait until tomorrow to get a better handle on storm totals for the weekend – not expecting a huge amount. Freezing levels: Today’s high pressure will also bring rising freezing levels. Freezing levels expect to reach 5-6000’ sometime this evening and stay there until the cold front passes through tomorrow night. The good news is that we shouldn't get much moisture with the warming. Winds: The gusty winds during the past 24 hours should come to an end this morning. Light westerly flow will continue until the cold front passes through tomorrow afternoon. Keep a watch out for some gusty frontal winds tomorrow evening.

January 28, 2009

Weird Snowpack

Good forecast JM right on. The big question throughout North America is What do we do with this snow pack of crusts and facets? This is an on going discussion all over how do you forecast load on what seems to be a more Inter mountain snow pack in the US and Canada. Read the latest Avalanche Review. Jon

Start Time Thursday 29th--7:30am

SPOT WEATHER FORECAST

1/28/2009 Weather Discussion: Nice snow, 9" in 24hrs – should be good skiing today. Light mountain snow showers will continue today and then taper off tomorrow. Things will begin to warm up and dry out tomorrow and Friday. Steeps are sliding down to the hard pack. Long-term models show a disturbance sliding down from the north sometime Friday evening. I am still wondering what the influence of the high pressure off the coast will be. For now, another front is tracking in for Sunday/Monday. Forecast from Wednesday 4pm to Thursday 4am Precipitation Lt .25 in. Water 0-3 in. Snow Temperatures Low 26 High 30 Winds 10-20 W gusty Forecast for Thursday 4am to 4pm Precipitation .25 in. Water 0-2 in. Snow Temperatures Low 26 High 34 Winds 5-15 W gusty TRENDS AND TIMING Precipitation: Passing mountain snow showers will continue today and tomorrow. It will be possible to get a brief period of light rain midday tomorrow. Freezing levels: Freezing levels expected to trend down today to 2000’ and then rebound back up to pass level by tomorrow. Should reach 4000’ by midmorning and then continue to climb to 5500’ sometime tomorrow night. Winds: Winds will continue to be gusty through tomorrow. Could get periods of troublesome 40+ gust but they should be short-lived and not much stronger.

January 27, 2009

Start Time Wednesday 28th--6:15am

6:15am start time, Day Crew only. Maybe some ridge top control, maybe not. Will have to practise how to hold a charge on a rock hard surface.

SPOT WEATHER FORECAST

1/27/2009 Weather Discussion: A warm front today quickly followed by a cold front tonight will provide a nice snowy period for the mountains through tomorrow. Be on the watch for some pockets freezing rain on the road later today. (below 3000’) Long-term models show snow showers persisting for the rest of the week. Beyond that is a big question due to high-pressure building off the coast of California. If this moves north then we could see a dry weekend. If not, we could get some weather tracking in from the NW – stay tuned. Forecast from Tuesday 4pm to Wednesday 4am Precipitation .25 in. Water 2-4 in. Snow Temperatures Low 24 High 30 Winds 5-20 W gusty Forecast for Wednesday 4am to 4pm Precipitation Lt .25 in. Water 1-3 in. Snow Temperatures Low 24 High 26 Winds 5-10 W TRENDS AND TIMING Precipitation: Snow totals are still on track for today. Good orographics could even bump those totals up a few inches. Snow should taper to showers through the evening and become light through tomorrow. Freezing levels: Freezing levels will trend up to reach 3500’ this afternoon and then quickly fall back down to 1000’ by tomorrow morning. Winds: Models are showing a gusty wind event today. (Sometime around noon if the front does not stall) Gust to 40 possible – wind should mellow a bit this evening but we can expect blustery conditions to continue through the night.

January 26, 2009

SPOT WEATHER FORECAST

1/26/2009 Weather Discussion: Enjoy the sun today because a system sliding in from the NW will bring snow to the mountains tomorrow. Long-term models show snow showers continuing through Wednesday with a more organize front arriving on Thurs/Friday. Forecast from Monday 4pm to Tuesday 4am Precipitation 0 in. Water 0 in. Snow Temperatures Low 8 High 22 Winds 0-10 W Forecast for Tuesday 4am to 4pm Precipitation .25-.5 in. Water 4-6 in. Snow Temperatures Low 22 High 30 Winds 10-20 W Gusty TRENDS AND TIMING Precipitation: The snow should arrive after 4am tomorrow. Snow should continue into the evening and even be enhanced by a Puget Sound Convergence Zone development. (We like it when that happens) Freezing levels: Freezing levels should trend up to near 3500’ overnight and then begin to fall after noon. Cooler NW flow will keep freezing levels down on Wednesday but they are expected to rise back up to near pass level with Thursday’s front. Winds: Wind will also return as the front passes through tonight. East flow will do its familiar swing to westerly sometime this evening. Strong westerly flow will give us some grief tomorrow- models indicate possible gust to 40mph but hopefully, they will not get much higher than that.

January 24, 2009

Start Time 7:30am Sunday 1/25/09

SPOT WEATHER FORECAST

1/24/2009 Weather Discussion: The change in the weather pattern is slowly happening. Cold, dry air will pour in from the NE tonight dropping surface temperatures. Tomorrow a weak disturbance will bring light snow to the region. Long-term models show more changes starting with a storm on Tuesday and then again on Thurs/Friday. It is a bit far out to get a handle on the details but we should see a return to some active winter weather. Forecast from Saturday 4pm to Sunday 4am Precipitation Lt .10 in. Water 0-2 in. Snow Temperatures Low 10 High 22 Winds 0-5 E Forecast for Sunday 4am to 4pm Precipitation Lt .10 in. Water 0-2 in. Snow Temperatures Low 8 High 16 Winds 0-10 NE TRENDS AND TIMING Precipitation: Light snow will develop this evening. The second part of tomorrow as well as Monday will be dry. Freezing levels: Freezing levels will trend down to near sea level tonight influenced by cold NE air. Winds: Light E/NE flow will be the wind pattern through the weekend.

January 23, 2009

Start Time 7:30am Sat. 1/24/09

SPOT WEATHTER FORECAST

1/23/2009 Weather Discussion: More of the same for the short term, but change is in the air for the long term. We can expect two more days of this weather pattern with the addition of cold arctic air from our friends to the north. A small disturbance is showing up for Sunday, but won’t be much of a snow producer for the mountains. Long-term models show promise by the middle of next week as the northern jet begins to track south. Right now, it is looking like we could get some snow for the second part of next week, and if lucky, extend into the weekend. Forecast from Friday 4pm to Saturday 4am Precipitation 0 in. Water 0 in. Snow Temperatures Low 16 High 24 Winds 0-5 E Forecast for Saturday 4am to 4pm Precipitation 0 in. Water 0 in. Snow Temperatures Low 16 High 24 Winds 0-5E TRENDS AND TIMING Precipitation: Dry though Saturday. Freezing levels: Freezing levels will slowly trend down from 4000’ today to reach sea level by Sunday morning. Cold air from the NE could bring single digit lows on Sunday/Monday. Winds: East flow should remain solid through the weekend. Cold air from the NE will strengthen the wind on Sunday.

January 21, 2009

SPOT WEATHER FORECAST

1/21/2009 Weather Discussion: This benign weather pattern will stick with us for the rest of the week. Temperatures will cool as air moves in from the interior north. Long-term models show little hope for any significant change until the northern jet takes a more southerly path. There are some longer term models showing that possibility late in the weekend. Forecast from Wednesday 4pm to Thursday4am Precipitation 0 in. Water 0 in. Snow Temperatures Low 18 High 28 Winds 0-5 NW Forecast for Thursday 4am to 4pm Precipitation 0 in. Water 0 in. Snow Temperatures Low 18 High 30 Winds 0-5 W TRENDS AND TIMING Precipitation: Dry conditions will prevail. Freezing levels: Freezing levels will trend down as northern air moves down and the high pressure continues to retrograde. Diurnal swings in surface temperatures will continue. Winds: East flow will switch to light westerly tonight as the center of the weakening high pressure drifts south. East flow will redevelop late Thursday or Friday.

January 20, 2009

SPOT WEATHER FORECAST

1/20/2009 Weather Discussion: The good news is that the high pressure is beginning to breakdown; the bad news is that we will remain dry for the rest of the week while temperature fall to more seasonal levels. Long-term models show some possibility of change by the weekend but not seeing much in the way of any significant storm track developing. Forecast from Tuesday 4pm to Wednesday 4am Precipitation 0 in. Water 0 in. Snow Temperatures Low 22 High 32 Winds 0-5 E Forecast for Wednesday 4am to 4pm Precipitation 0 in. Water 0 in. Snow Temperatures Low 24 High 40 Winds 0-5 E TRENDS AND TIMING Precipitation: No moisture expected. Freezing levels: Freezing levels will trend down to near pass level tonight and then fluctuate between 4000’ and 5000’ for the most of the week. Surface temps will fall quickly at sun down and rebound quickly with the sun’s return. Winds: Light east winds will continue to move through the pass for the next several days.

Start Time 21st January 7:30am

I will be testifying on the explosives House Bill 1280 on Friday.

January 18, 2009

Is this all we have to say on this web site, start times and weather? This is what happened to the West Wide and American Avalanche Association web sites, no one communicated or commented on issues. This ski patrol site could turn into a great communication avenue such as weather, snowpack, training and a day to day account of events at the pass. Don't loose it.

Start Time 7:30am Monday 1/19/09

January 17, 2009

Start Time 7:30am Sunday 1/18/09

SPOT WEATHER FORECAST

1/17/2009 Weather Discussion: High pressure parked over the Pacific Northwest will continue to produce spring like weather well into next week. Long-term models show this weather pattern lasting for most of next week. Forecast from Saturday 4pm to Sunday 4am Precipitation 0 in. Water 0 in. Snow Temperatures Low 32 High 38 Winds 5-15 E Forecast for Sunday 4am to 4pm Precipitation 0 in. Water 0 in. Snow Temperatures Low 30 High 40 Winds 0-10 ESE TRENDS AND TIMING Precipitation: Dry conditions prevail. Freezing levels: Freezing levels will remain well above pass level. However, cooler air from the east will keep surface temps cool at night, while day time temps continue their wide ranges. Winds: East flow will strengthen tonight and then begin to taper through tomorrow.

January 16, 2009

Start Time 7:30am Sat. 1/17/09

Start Time Saturday 17th 7:30am

Come on up and enjoy the 50+ degree weather. Great spring skiing.

SPOT WEATHER FORECAST

1/16/2009 Weather Discussion: A dome of high pressure will continue to bring warm day time temperatures and very dry conditions through the holiday weekend. Long-term models show a pattern change sometime next week. The jury is still out on what that change might be. Forecast from Friday 4pm to Saturday 4am Precipitation 0 in. Water 0 in. Snow Temperatures Low 26 High 36 Winds 0-5 E Forecast for Saturday 4am to 4pm Precipitation 0 in. Water 0 in. Snow Temperatures Low 30 High 45 Winds 0-10 E TRENDS AND TIMING Precipitation: Dry. Freezing levels: Freezing levels west of the crest are expected to top out near 12,000’ today and tomorrow. Interest lies in the strengthening inversion and cooling to the east. Surface temps may fall due to cooler air being drawn from the eastern basin. Winds: East flow will develop tonight and strengthen tomorrow. A well established east flow pattern should persist MLK day.

January 15, 2009

Start Time for Friday 1/15: 7:30 National Safety Week and Martin Luther King weekend. Should be a good one.

SOPT WEATHER FORECAST

BE SURE TO LOOK AT IMPORTANT EXPLOSIVE LICENSING INFO BELOW 1/15/2009 Weather Discussion: High pressure will remain centered over the PNW through the weekend. There is some high clouds spilling over the ridge from the north – this could provide some insolating qualities which may push surface temps up a bit. Long-term models are showing this high pressure beginning to weaken and moving out sometime next week. Forecast from Thursday 4pm to Friday 4am Precipitation 0 in. Water 0 in. Snow Temperatures Low 26 High 36 Winds 0-5 E Forecast for Friday 4am to 4pm Precipitation 0 in. Water 0 in. Snow Temperatures Low 28 High 44 Winds 0-5 W TRENDS AND TIMING Precipitation: None. Freezing levels: Freezing levels will remain high through the weekend. East flow developing on the weekend could draw some cooler air to the eastern basin. Winds: Light east flow will shift to westerly as the high pressure shifts slightly east tomorrow. A stronger east flow is expected to develop during the weekend.

Exciting Information

Greetings, The House Bill we have been working on regarding the explosives license renewal cycle has been dropped. This means the bill is in the Legislative works process. Thank you for all the support on this issue and keep sending me your signatures. What we need right now is for you to e-mail your Washington State Representative if you support this bill. Go to http://access.wa.gov/leg/legnews.aspx and find your State Representative to e-mail. The House Bill # 1280 is on the web site with more information to follow. We have until 2:00pm Friday to do this. Please contact your friends and associates to sign off on this bill as I do not have all their contact information. So far I have 350-400 supportive signatures from you with more on the way that I will take to the Legislature and testify on behalf of this bill. Once again please contact those that are not on this list to contact their Legislatures. Jon Andrews

January 14, 2009

Start Time Thursday 15th 7:30am

Great Spring skiing today on the groomed on cold snow. Temps last night up high were upper 30s low 40s, allowing us to open all lifts today. Regarding the house bill for our explosives license cycle change-Cary Condotta will drop the house bill over the next couple of days. When this happens it is very important that you e-mail your locate State Representative individually in support of the bill. You will need to do so by 2:00pm the day the bill is assigned. Go to http://access.wa.gov/leg/legnews.aspx to see when this happens. Jon

SPOT WEATHER FORECAST

1/14/2009 Weather Discussion: World class groomed corn greeted my skis this morning - might as well embrace spring while it’s here. A very dry atmosphere with warm day time temps and cooler nights will be on the menu for this week. Long-term models show this pattern continuing through the weekend. Some longer range models show the possibility of the high pressure breaking down by the middle of next week. Forecast from Wednesday 4pm to Thursday 4am Precipitation 0 in. Water 0 in. Snow Temperatures Low 30 High 34 Winds 0-5 E Forecast for Thursday 4am to 4pm Precipitation 0 in. Water 0 in. Snow Temperatures Low 32 High 40 Winds 0-5 E TRENDS AND TIMING Precipitation: No moisture expected until the middle of next week. Freezing levels: Freezing levels will climb to +10k today and remain there through the weekend. Temperature inversions with east flow should bring early morning pass level temps to near freezing. Upper air temperature, above +- 4500’ should remain well above freezing through the weekend. Winds: Light east flow will develop today.

January 13, 2009

Start Time Wednesday 14th 7:30am

How you doing? Be prepared for unusual Spring ski conditions,that normally happen around mid-February,in mid January.

SPOT WEATHER FORECAST

1/13/2009 Weather Discussion: One has to ponder the influence of the warming climate on these extreme weather cycles. Especially, when you consider that it all happened in less than a month. Our next weather challenge will be high freezing levels of 10,000’ or more producing very warm temperature for the remainder of the week. Inversion fog will also be produced near the Cascade Crest. Long-term models show a prolonged period or spring like conditions lasting well into the weekend. Forecast from Tuesday 4pm to Wednesday 4am Precipitation 0 in. Water 0 in. Snow Temperatures Low 26 High 32 Winds 0-10 NNW Forecast for Wednesday 4am to 4pm Precipitation 0 in. Water 0 in. Snow Temperatures Low 28 High 40 Winds 0-5 NE TRENDS AND TIMING Precipitation: No moisture will be possible with strong high pressure over the PNW. The high pressure ridge is expected to remain stationary through the weekend. Freezing levels: Freezing levels will hover near 5000’ until tomorrow when they are expected to raise to 10,000 or higher. Clear nights could help bring surface temps close to the freezing mark tonight and tomorrow night. Winds: Light northern flow tonight will slowly swing to a light easterly sometime tomorrow.

January 12, 2009

Stuff happening this week

Chelan County Avalanche Rescue training with Stevens Pass BARK. Dog shirts for sale. $20 for employees $25 for others Snow layer study block training Route leader check offs Good spring skiing Clay's Birthday

Start Time Tuesday 13th 7:30am

Foggy and windy today but expecting sunny and warm Tuesday. With the weather forecast for this week and the layer structure we have it should get sporty by Thursday. I will post snow profiles tommorow. Jon

January 10, 2009

SPOT WEATHER FORECAST

1/10/2009 Weather Discussion: A strengthening warm front will push through today bringing snow and rain to the mountains through Monday. Long-term models show high pressure building Monday producing a dry and mild week of weather for the North Central Cascades. Forecast from Saturday 4pm Sunday 4am Precipitation .5 - .75 in. Water 6-10” in. Snow Temperatures Low 30 High 34 Winds 5-10 W Forecast for Sunday 4am to 4pm Precipitation .5 -.75 in. Water 0-2 in. Snow Temperatures Low 32 High 36 Winds 5-10 W TRENDS AND TIMING Precipitation: Light snow will continue today and then intensify later this evening. Snow will turn to rain on the lower mountain overnight and then eventually be all rain tomorrow. Rain will slowly taper to showers Monday - dry from Tuesday through the rest of the week. Freezing levels: Freezing levels will trend up to 4000’ through the day and then continue its climb to 5 or 6000’ through the night. Mild temperatures are expected to continue well into next week. Winds: Some gusty frontal winds can be expected this afternoon, but overall there are no significant wind concerns at this time. Westerly flow should continue through the weekend.

January 9, 2009

Start Time 6:15am 1/10/09

SPOT WEATHER FORECAST

1/9/2009 Weather Discussion: The next 24 hours will be dry - a well deserve break. A system is expected to bring some wet snow and or rain tomorrow afternoon and Sunday. Long-term models show high pressure building on Tuesday which should bring dry and mild weather to the PNW for the remainder of the week. Forecast from Friday 4pm to Saturday 4am Precipitation 0 in. Water 0 in. Snow Temperatures Low 24 High 32 Winds 5-10 WSW Forecast for Saturday 4am to 4pm Precipitation .25 in. Water 2-4” in. Snow Temperatures Low 30 High 32 Winds 5-10 WSW TRENDS AND TIMING Precipitation: A stabilizing atmosphere should dry things out today. A moisture stream sagging down from the north should arrive sometime after noon tomorrow. Snow is expected at first but then it should turn to snow/rain mix through the evening and mostly rain on Sunday. The precipitation changes to shower on Monday with a drying trend developing for the remainder of the week. Freezing levels: Freezing level will trend up from 3000’ to 4500’ by noon tomorrow and then rise to 5000’ later in the day. Winds: Light WSW winds will be the rule for most of the weekend. There might be some brief gusty periods as a few weak fronts move through but not expecting much for winds through the weekend.

January 8, 2009

SPOT WEATHER FORECAST

1/8/2009 Weather Discussion: Building high pressure will bring an end the precipitation tonight. Friday should bring dry and cooler weather. Long-term models show it staying dry through most of Saturday with a weak disturbance moving through on Saturday night or Sunday. High pressure is expected to rebound on Monday producing for a dry and mild week. Forecast from Thursday 4pm to Friday 4am Precipitation Lt .10 in. Water 0-2 in. Snow Temperatures Low 18 High 26 Winds 5-10 W Forecast for Friday 4am to 4pm Precipitation 0 in. Water 0 in. Snow Temperatures Low 18 High 24 Winds 0-10 W TRENDS AND TIMING Precipitation: Snow should taper off through the day with a dry night ahead. No precipitation is expected until late Saturday or Sunday. Freezing levels: Freezing levels will trend down to reach 2000’ tonight and stay low through tomorrow. Freezing levels will then slowly rise to 5000’ for the weekend. Winds: Winds should taper through the day as well and shouldn’t be much of a factor through the weekend.

January 7, 2009

Closed on Thursday

Our goal is to reopen the ski area on Friday the 9th. We are approching 10 plus inches of rain on a conntenintal snow pack. Though we really do not have a deep snow pack it is one of the most unpradictable situations I have seen, even more so than the large avalanche cycle last season. Today on the hill some explosives tests produce a few small class 1s. Explosives do not responed or work well or give you an indication of instability or stability. Right now there is so much free water in the snow pack that areas I am thinking about are Sunny Slope, Show Case, Race Course Knoll areas where water can pool on top and cause mogualed or ski slopes to avalanche. With the forecast we should drain the rain by tomorow night and begain to refreeze. From what I saw today we could see 1-3' of snow above 5000' by tomorow morning. More later Jon

January 6, 2009

Start Time Thursday 8th January-----Maybe

The ski area will not be open tomorow, Wednesday but will shoot to reopen on Thursday the 8th. Today as it gradually warmed to around 4500' we where able to trigger surface slides and eventually natural activity around noon 30. Then Old Faithfull shut the hwy down around 1:30pm and we bailed. Ski Patrol Training over the next two to three weeks: (Testing Snow Stability Tests) 1) Pick a snow layer of choice and watch trends over time in the same location. 2) Pick two snow stability tests and conduct four times over the two week period. 3) Graph trends from your observations, forms avalible. Over this two to three week period we should come up with about 4-500 entries. I think we can all learn from this project and it may turn into a good ISSW presentation. Resources: SWAG, the Avalanche Handbook and 60 ski patrol. Hopefully there will be a snow pack left when we get back on Thursday. Corey, Patty you got anything to add? Later, Jon

SPOT WEATHER FORECAST

1/6/2009 Weather Discussion: A weather feature known as the Pineapple Express will pound the PNW with heavy rain and high mountain snow for the next 36-48 hours. Could be record setting with some models showing storm totals of 10-20” of water by Thursday morning. To put that into perspective, Hurricane Katrina dumped 10” of water in 48 hours. Long-term models show the stream of moisture being cut off by building high pressure late Thurs/Friday. The weekend looks dry for now. Forecast from Tuesday 4pm to Wednesday 4am Precipitation 2-4” in. Water 4-6 in. Snow Temperatures Low 32 High 36 Winds 5-15 SW gusty Forecast for Wednesday 4am to 4pm Precipitation 2-4” in. Water 4-6 in. Snow Temperatures Low 32 High 36 Winds 5-15 SW gusty TRENDS AND TIMING Precipitation: Heavy snow will turn to heavy rain in the base area and reach the higher mountain by this evening. Heavy rain is expected through tomorrow night. Cold air aloft mixing will bring periods of rain snow mix on the higher mountain. Freezing levels: The freezing levels will trend up to 5000’ by this evening and hover between 4500’ and 5000’ until a cold front moves through early Thursday morning. Winds: Models show high SW winds of + 40mph, however we are usually shielded by the mountains when the wind comes from the SW. So I am not expecting huge winds to hit Stevens with this impressive storm.

January 5, 2009

6:15 Start Time Tuesday 1/6/09

SPOT WEATHER FORECAST

1/5/2009 Weather Discussion: Snow showers, temperatures near the freezing mark and gusty winds will be on tap today as a strong on shore flow continues over the PNW. Things will then get very interesting as a SW fetch of moisture and warmer air get ready to hit the mountains tomorrow. There is a lot of uncertainty with this complex weather approaching, mainly in the freezing levels. Long-term models show the moisture stream continuing through Thursday. The light at the end of the tunnel is a high pressure ridge developing Friday – This could bring a dry period for the weekend. Forecast from Monday 4pm to Tuesday 4am Precipitation .5 in. Water 4-8” in. Snow Temperatures Low 30 High 32 Winds 10-20 W gusty Forecast for Tuesday 4am to 4pm Precipitation 1-2” in. Water 6-15” in. Snow Temperatures Low 32 High 36 Winds 5-15 SW gusty TRENDS AND TIMING Precipitation: Precipitation totals have been slightly down graded today due to temps and shifting wind pattern – but we can still expect periods of heavy showers pumping through the mountain by our convergence zone friend. Precipitation will increase tomorrow and become heavy mid-day. Best chance of rain or snow/rain mix is sometime after 10am tomorrow. 72 hour water totals could exceed 4”. Snow totals have a wide range do to the fact that it could be rain at 5000’ and below. Freezing levels: We will have to keep a close eye on the freezing levels as they inch up to near or above 5000’ by midday tomorrow. Cold air aloft may save us from a significant rain event above 4000’ but that is a big maybe. Winds: Winds will continue to be troublesome until they shift SW sometime tonight or early tomorrow morning. Pesky winds will stick around until early Thursday.

January 4, 2009

SPOT WEATHER FORECAST

1/4/2009 Weather Discussion: The leading edge of the next weather event to hit the PNW is currently a few miles off the coast. The warm front is expected to reach the mountains this evening bringing rising freezing levels, very heavy snow and yes, more wind. Long-term models show a very wet warm week ahead as a strong SW flow drives in heavy moisture through the middle of the week. Forecast from Sunday 4pm to Monday 4am Precipitation .75 in. Water 8-10” in. Snow Temperatures Low 16 High 30 Winds 5-10 SW Forecast for Monday 4am to 4pm Precipitation .75-1 in. Water 10-15” in. Snow Temperatures Low 30 High 32 Winds 10-20 W Gust 40 TRENDS AND TIMING Precipitation: The moisture should show up around 4pm and intensify through tonight. There should be enough cold air left over to hopefully prevent any rain, but we can expect heavy snow through tomorrow. Storm totals could be as high as +3” of water by Monday evening with more on the way. Freezing levels: Freezing levels will trend up to 4000-4500’ by midnight tonight and remain there until it begins to rise higher on Tuesday. Winds: Light E/SE flow should develop today but quickly swing south, southwest and then westerly through the night. Strong westerly with convergence flow should be established by first light. It will be possible to see gust 40+ through tomorrow morning.

Start time 6:15am Monday 1/5/09

S

January 2, 2009

Start Time 7:30am Sat. 1/3/09

SPOT WEATHER FORECAST

1/2/2009 Weather Discussion: A fast moving cold front moved through this morning bringing us these blustery conditions. Things should calm down, cool down, and dry out down through the day. Light snow showers will persist through most of the weekend with cool temps. Should be really good sliding. Long-term models show a strong warm front hitting Sunday bringing another round of heavy show and higher freezing levels to the mountains. Forecast from Friday 4pm to Saturday 4am Precipitation .10 in. Water 0-2 in. Snow Temperatures Low 8 High 16 Winds 5-15 NW Forecast for Saturday 4am to 4pm Precipitation Lt .25 in. Water 0-3 in. Snow Temperatures Low 12 High 24 Winds 0-10 W TRENDS AND TIMING Precipitation: A lingering convergence zone will shift south today bringing an end to the snow here at Stevens. Snow showers will pass through from time to time but not expecting any significant accumulation until Sunday. Freezing levels: Freezing levels will trend down to near sea level tonight and remain low through Sunday. Winds: NW winds will continue to be blustery today but shouldn’t be a show stopper. Winds will begin to calm later this evening with light westerly’s developing for the weekend.

January 1, 2009

Start Time Friday 2nd 6:15am

Be prepared for continued sport and don,t stop on the hiway. Jon

0800 Thurs March 28th, No ABS