Over the next 48 hours there will be some powder skiing and some uaaa. The 1st of January is my 24th wedding anniversry and I will be taking the kids to McDonalds and supper sizing the frise.
Jon
December 31, 2009
SPOT WEATHER FORECAST
12/31/2009 Weather
Short term: There is a strong warm front pushing those dark clouds in from the west. This will bring heavy precipitation to the mountains today. A cold front will follow tomorrow dropping freezing levels and bringing another push of heavy moisture.
Long-term: The cold front that will pass through tomorrow will bring high winds and convergence conditions – could pick up some nice snow by Saturday morning. A high-pressure ridge will begin to dry things out for the start of the week.
24 hour forecast starting at noon on Thursday
Precipitation
“ Water: .75-1+
“ of Snow: 6-10 more if we dodge the rain bullet.
Temperatures (F):
4000’ Low: 30 High: 36
5000’ Low: 28 High: 32
Winds speed/Direction
Pass level: 5-10 E – shifting SW
Ridge top: 5-15 SE – Shifting SW
TRENDS AND TIMING
Precipitation:
Snow will rapidly increase as the day progresses. There will be a period tonight for the risk of rain below 5000’ - hopefully this will be short lived if at all. The rain should turn back to heavy snow tomorrow and continue into Saturday. Storm totals by Saturday morning could exceed +3” of water – impressive.
Freezing levels:
Models are showing the freezing levels reaching 4000’ sometime after 7pm tonight. Freezing levels will peak near 5500’ sometime during the night. Freezing levels will then drop back down to 4000’ and stay there through tomorrow. Temperatures should be low enough for snow for most of tomorrow.
Winds:
East flow will hold in there through most of the day. Eventually, it will be overtaken by strong SW flow as the front passes. Look for a high wind event tomorrow afternoon as the winds shift from SW to W. JDM
Short term: There is a strong warm front pushing those dark clouds in from the west. This will bring heavy precipitation to the mountains today. A cold front will follow tomorrow dropping freezing levels and bringing another push of heavy moisture.
Long-term: The cold front that will pass through tomorrow will bring high winds and convergence conditions – could pick up some nice snow by Saturday morning. A high-pressure ridge will begin to dry things out for the start of the week.
24 hour forecast starting at noon on Thursday
Precipitation
“ Water: .75-1+
“ of Snow: 6-10 more if we dodge the rain bullet.
Temperatures (F):
4000’ Low: 30 High: 36
5000’ Low: 28 High: 32
Winds speed/Direction
Pass level: 5-10 E – shifting SW
Ridge top: 5-15 SE – Shifting SW
TRENDS AND TIMING
Precipitation:
Snow will rapidly increase as the day progresses. There will be a period tonight for the risk of rain below 5000’ - hopefully this will be short lived if at all. The rain should turn back to heavy snow tomorrow and continue into Saturday. Storm totals by Saturday morning could exceed +3” of water – impressive.
Freezing levels:
Models are showing the freezing levels reaching 4000’ sometime after 7pm tonight. Freezing levels will peak near 5500’ sometime during the night. Freezing levels will then drop back down to 4000’ and stay there through tomorrow. Temperatures should be low enough for snow for most of tomorrow.
Winds:
East flow will hold in there through most of the day. Eventually, it will be overtaken by strong SW flow as the front passes. Look for a high wind event tomorrow afternoon as the winds shift from SW to W. JDM
December 30, 2009
SPOT WEATHER FORECAST
12/30/2009 Weather
Short term: Light snow will continue today. A vigorous warm front will move through tomorrow bringing snow rain and wind. Sporty.
Long-term: Active weather with mild temperatures will continue through the weekend. The New Year will start with a mixed bag of weather as a few weak systems try and make their way through the maze of pressure ridges.
24 hour forecast starting at noon on Wednesday
Precipitation
“ Water: lt .25
“ of Snow: 1-3
Temperatures (F):
4000’ Low: 22 High: 30
5000’ Low: 24 High: 26
Winds speed/Direction
Pass level: 0-5 W shifting E
Ridge top: 5-10 W shifting E
TRENDS AND TIMING
Precipitation: These light snow showers will slowly taper off through today. There will be a brief dry period tonight before a warm front brings snow to start the day tomorrow. We will then play the rain snow game starting sometime after 4pm - should get a good dose of snow (6-8”) before the risk of rain comes later in the evening.
Freezing levels: Freezing levels will stay around 3000’ through tonight. Freezing
levels will then rise to 4000’ in the wake of the warm front tomorrow night.
freezing levels will continue to rise reaching 5000’ early Friday morning.
Winds: West flow will continue through the night. A brief period of east flow will
develop before the front passes tomorrow afternoon. Strong WSW flow will
eventually erode the east flow and bring gusty conditions through the pass
tomorrow night. JDM
Short term: Light snow will continue today. A vigorous warm front will move through tomorrow bringing snow rain and wind. Sporty.
Long-term: Active weather with mild temperatures will continue through the weekend. The New Year will start with a mixed bag of weather as a few weak systems try and make their way through the maze of pressure ridges.
24 hour forecast starting at noon on Wednesday
Precipitation
“ Water: lt .25
“ of Snow: 1-3
Temperatures (F):
4000’ Low: 22 High: 30
5000’ Low: 24 High: 26
Winds speed/Direction
Pass level: 0-5 W shifting E
Ridge top: 5-10 W shifting E
TRENDS AND TIMING
Precipitation: These light snow showers will slowly taper off through today. There will be a brief dry period tonight before a warm front brings snow to start the day tomorrow. We will then play the rain snow game starting sometime after 4pm - should get a good dose of snow (6-8”) before the risk of rain comes later in the evening.
Freezing levels: Freezing levels will stay around 3000’ through tonight. Freezing
levels will then rise to 4000’ in the wake of the warm front tomorrow night.
freezing levels will continue to rise reaching 5000’ early Friday morning.
Winds: West flow will continue through the night. A brief period of east flow will
develop before the front passes tomorrow afternoon. Strong WSW flow will
eventually erode the east flow and bring gusty conditions through the pass
tomorrow night. JDM
December 29, 2009
SPOT WEATHER FORECAST
12/29/2009 Weather
Short term: Finally, a couple of systems, although small, will bring some snow to the mountains.
Long-term: The second of the systems, schedule to arrive on Thursday, will draw up warm air from the SW. We therefore will be fighting the freezing levels as they rise to 4000. So far there seems to be enough cool air to keep us in snow. The first week of the New Year looks dry as another high-pressure ridge develops off the coast.
24 hour forecast starting at noon on Tuesday
Precipitation
“ Water: .25
“ of Snow: 2-4
Temperatures (F):
4000’ Low: 20 High: 28
5000’ Low: 18 High: 26
Winds speed/Direction
Pass level: 0-5 E
Ridge top: 0-10 SE
TRENDS AND TIMING
Precipitation: Light snow will develop tonight and taper to showers tomorrow afternoon. Snow showers will linger until the next system arrive on Thursday.
Freezing levels: Freezing levels will continue to stay low through the night, influenced by the east flow. Freezing levels will rise to 3000’ after 10 am tomorrow.
Winds: East flow will continue through noon tomorrow. SW flow will then develop in preparation of Thursday’s front-not expecting any significant wind events with these systems. JDM
Short term: Finally, a couple of systems, although small, will bring some snow to the mountains.
Long-term: The second of the systems, schedule to arrive on Thursday, will draw up warm air from the SW. We therefore will be fighting the freezing levels as they rise to 4000. So far there seems to be enough cool air to keep us in snow. The first week of the New Year looks dry as another high-pressure ridge develops off the coast.
24 hour forecast starting at noon on Tuesday
Precipitation
“ Water: .25
“ of Snow: 2-4
Temperatures (F):
4000’ Low: 20 High: 28
5000’ Low: 18 High: 26
Winds speed/Direction
Pass level: 0-5 E
Ridge top: 0-10 SE
TRENDS AND TIMING
Precipitation: Light snow will develop tonight and taper to showers tomorrow afternoon. Snow showers will linger until the next system arrive on Thursday.
Freezing levels: Freezing levels will continue to stay low through the night, influenced by the east flow. Freezing levels will rise to 3000’ after 10 am tomorrow.
Winds: East flow will continue through noon tomorrow. SW flow will then develop in preparation of Thursday’s front-not expecting any significant wind events with these systems. JDM
December 28, 2009
December 27, 2009
SPOT WEATHER FORECAST
12/27/2009 Weather
Short term: Enjoy the sun today because high clouds will move in later, marking the beginning of a change to come.
Long-term: The high-pressure ridge will begin to break down as it is shoved east by the approaching systems.
24 hour forecast starting at noon on Sunday
Precipitation
“ Water: .10
“ of Snow: trace - 2
Temperatures (F):
4000’ Low: 14 High: 24
5000’ Low: 12 High: 22
Winds speed/Direction
Pass level: 0-5 E
Ridge top: 5-10 SE
TRENDS AND TIMING
Precipitation: A weak system will drift up from the south tomorrow morning. This will bring light snow to the pass. Another slightly bigger system will arrive late Tuesday.
Freezing levels: Freezing levels will begin to rise to 3000’ over the next 24 hours. However, east flow will keep surface tempertures low over the North Central Cascades.
Short term: Enjoy the sun today because high clouds will move in later, marking the beginning of a change to come.
Long-term: The high-pressure ridge will begin to break down as it is shoved east by the approaching systems.
24 hour forecast starting at noon on Sunday
Precipitation
“ Water: .10
“ of Snow: trace - 2
Temperatures (F):
4000’ Low: 14 High: 24
5000’ Low: 12 High: 22
Winds speed/Direction
Pass level: 0-5 E
Ridge top: 5-10 SE
TRENDS AND TIMING
Precipitation: A weak system will drift up from the south tomorrow morning. This will bring light snow to the pass. Another slightly bigger system will arrive late Tuesday.
Freezing levels: Freezing levels will begin to rise to 3000’ over the next 24 hours. However, east flow will keep surface tempertures low over the North Central Cascades.
Winds: East flow will weaken but remain intact through the middle of the week. JDM
December 26, 2009
SPOT WEATHER FORECAST
12/26/2009 Weather
Short term: It is nice that the inversion layer dissipated this morning-what a beautiful day. We will have a few more nice days before the change begins on Monday.
Long-term: Things will slowly start to change early next week. The Northern Jet Stream is still thinking about moving north during the middle of next week. Still hopeful for some snow to bring in the New Year.
24 hour forecast starting at noon on Saturday
Precipitation
“ Water: 0
“ of Snow: 0
Temperatures (F):
4000’ Low: 10 High: 22
5000’ Low: 8 High: 20
Winds speed/Direction
Pass level: 5-10 E
Ridge top: 5-15 E
TRENDS AND TIMING
Precipitation: No precipitation expected to reach the mountains until the middle of next week.
Freezing levels: Freezing levels will continue to hover between 2000’ and 3000’ for the rest of the weekend. Clear nights will allow surface temps to dip into the single digits.
Winds: The pool of cool air, still east of the crest, will continue to force brisk east winds through the pass for the next 24 hours. JDM
Short term: It is nice that the inversion layer dissipated this morning-what a beautiful day. We will have a few more nice days before the change begins on Monday.
Long-term: Things will slowly start to change early next week. The Northern Jet Stream is still thinking about moving north during the middle of next week. Still hopeful for some snow to bring in the New Year.
24 hour forecast starting at noon on Saturday
Precipitation
“ Water: 0
“ of Snow: 0
Temperatures (F):
4000’ Low: 10 High: 22
5000’ Low: 8 High: 20
Winds speed/Direction
Pass level: 5-10 E
Ridge top: 5-15 E
TRENDS AND TIMING
Precipitation: No precipitation expected to reach the mountains until the middle of next week.
Freezing levels: Freezing levels will continue to hover between 2000’ and 3000’ for the rest of the weekend. Clear nights will allow surface temps to dip into the single digits.
Winds: The pool of cool air, still east of the crest, will continue to force brisk east winds through the pass for the next 24 hours. JDM
December 25, 2009
SPOT WEATHER FORECAST
12/25/2009 Weather
Short term: High pressure aloft with cool air trapped in the eastern basin has created this strong inversion layer. The sun will make a good go at trying to burn off the lower level clouds, but it may not be able to. Inversion conditions will continue for the next few days.
Long-term: This dry weather pattern will continue through the weekend as the approaching systems split and go around us. There is some promise next week as the Northern Jet Stream tries to break down the split flow. This will be our next chance for snow – hopefully to bring in the New Year. Happy Holidays.
24 hour forecast starting at noon on Friday
Precipitation
“ Water: 0
“ of Snow: 0
Temperatures (F):
4000’ Low: 12-20 High: 24-34
5000’ Low: 18-24 High: 24- 40
Winds speed/Direction
Pass level: 5-15 E
Ridge top: 10-20 E
TRENDS AND TIMING
Precipitation: 0
Freezing levels: It’s hard to imagine the Freezing levels above the inversion layer reaching 8000’ but that will be possible in the next 24 hours. Temps will remain quite cool below the inversion layer. The surface temperature will depend on what elevation you are standing at, could be a 20+ degree difference.
Winds: Strong east/west temperature gradients will push east winds through the Pass today and tomorrow. It will be possible to get east wind gust in the 20’s
Short term: High pressure aloft with cool air trapped in the eastern basin has created this strong inversion layer. The sun will make a good go at trying to burn off the lower level clouds, but it may not be able to. Inversion conditions will continue for the next few days.
Long-term: This dry weather pattern will continue through the weekend as the approaching systems split and go around us. There is some promise next week as the Northern Jet Stream tries to break down the split flow. This will be our next chance for snow – hopefully to bring in the New Year. Happy Holidays.
24 hour forecast starting at noon on Friday
Precipitation
“ Water: 0
“ of Snow: 0
Temperatures (F):
4000’ Low: 12-20 High: 24-34
5000’ Low: 18-24 High: 24- 40
Winds speed/Direction
Pass level: 5-15 E
Ridge top: 10-20 E
TRENDS AND TIMING
Precipitation: 0
Freezing levels: It’s hard to imagine the Freezing levels above the inversion layer reaching 8000’ but that will be possible in the next 24 hours. Temps will remain quite cool below the inversion layer. The surface temperature will depend on what elevation you are standing at, could be a 20+ degree difference.
Winds: Strong east/west temperature gradients will push east winds through the Pass today and tomorrow. It will be possible to get east wind gust in the 20’s
December 24, 2009
Start Time Friday--7:30am
Spring skiing baby!
All leads for the Avalanche Forecasting and Control in January give Richard a short outline of your topics.
Jon
All leads for the Avalanche Forecasting and Control in January give Richard a short outline of your topics.
Jon
December 23, 2009
Start Time Thursday--7:30am
Training
Avalanche Forecasting & Control January 5th – 18th
Topics:
Route Reviews will be done daily as time permits.
Lead-All
Dates: January 5th-18th
Avalanche Forecasting will be 15 minuet sessions on 7:30 start time mornings.
Lead-Jon, Patty
Dates: January 5th, 10th Tuesday & Sunday
Pro-Activeness will be 15 minuet sessions on 7:30 start time mornings.
Lead-Josh, Tyler, Erin
Dates: January 6th, 11th Wednesday & Monday
Evaluating Avalanche Paths will be half hour sessions out on the hill on 7:30 start time mornings.
Lead-Guy, Dan
Dates: January 7th, 13th, 18th Thursday, Wednesday & Monday
GWAG Snow Profile program will be out on the hill during the day.
Lead-Patty and Gals
Dates: January 5th-18th
Explosives & Procedures will be 15 minuet sessions on 7:30 start time mornings.
Lead-John Schaffer
Dates: January 8th, 14th, 17th Friday, Thursday, Sunday
Avalanche Forecasting & Control January 5th – 18th
Topics:
Route Reviews will be done daily as time permits.
Lead-All
Dates: January 5th-18th
Avalanche Forecasting will be 15 minuet sessions on 7:30 start time mornings.
Lead-Jon, Patty
Dates: January 5th, 10th Tuesday & Sunday
Pro-Activeness will be 15 minuet sessions on 7:30 start time mornings.
Lead-Josh, Tyler, Erin
Dates: January 6th, 11th Wednesday & Monday
Evaluating Avalanche Paths will be half hour sessions out on the hill on 7:30 start time mornings.
Lead-Guy, Dan
Dates: January 7th, 13th, 18th Thursday, Wednesday & Monday
GWAG Snow Profile program will be out on the hill during the day.
Lead-Patty and Gals
Dates: January 5th-18th
Explosives & Procedures will be 15 minuet sessions on 7:30 start time mornings.
Lead-John Schaffer
Dates: January 8th, 14th, 17th Friday, Thursday, Sunday
SPOT WEATHER FORECAST
12/23/2009 Weather
Short term: Building pressure will stabilize the atmosphere further today allowing more clearing to occur. Therefore, we see more of the sun as the week moves along.
Long-term: This high-pressure ridge should remain over the PNW through the weekend. There is sign of the high pressure ridge starting to breaking down over the weekend, this could possible allow some weak disturbances to move in.
24 hour forecast starting at noon on Wednesday
Precipitation
“ Water: 0
“ of Snow: 0
Temperatures (F):
4000’ Low: 16 High: 26
5000’ Low: 18 High: 24
Winds speed/Direction
Pass level: 0-3 N
Ridge top: 0-5 NE
TRENDS AND TIMING
Precipitation: 0
Freezing levels: Freezing levels will slowly rise tonight as warm air invades from the south. Not expecting freezing levels to rise above pass level, but day time surface temps will be a few degrees warm tomorrow.
Winds: Not much wind out there until the east flow develops in a few days. JDM
Short term: Building pressure will stabilize the atmosphere further today allowing more clearing to occur. Therefore, we see more of the sun as the week moves along.
Long-term: This high-pressure ridge should remain over the PNW through the weekend. There is sign of the high pressure ridge starting to breaking down over the weekend, this could possible allow some weak disturbances to move in.
24 hour forecast starting at noon on Wednesday
Precipitation
“ Water: 0
“ of Snow: 0
Temperatures (F):
4000’ Low: 16 High: 26
5000’ Low: 18 High: 24
Winds speed/Direction
Pass level: 0-3 N
Ridge top: 0-5 NE
TRENDS AND TIMING
Precipitation: 0
Freezing levels: Freezing levels will slowly rise tonight as warm air invades from the south. Not expecting freezing levels to rise above pass level, but day time surface temps will be a few degrees warm tomorrow.
Winds: Not much wind out there until the east flow develops in a few days. JDM
December 22, 2009
SPOT WEATHER FORECAST
12/22/2009 Weather
Short term: A ridge of high pressure is building off the western coast; this will produce dry and cool weather for the remainder of the week - might even get some sun.
Long-term: There is an interesting large low-pressure system developing in the Gulf of Alaska – It may be strong enough to push through the blocking ridge by the weekend. Stay tuned as that develops.
24 hour forecast starting at noon on Tuesday
Precipitation
“ Water: 0
“ of Snow: 0
Temperatures (F):
4000’ Low: 16 High: 24
5000’ Low: 18 High: 22
Winds speed/Direction
Pass level: 0-5 NW
Ridge top: 0-10 N
TRENDS AND TIMING
Precipitation: The few snow flurries floating around today will end as high pressure builds over the area.
Freezing levels: Surface temperature will be held low due to cool air coming in from the northeast and clearing skies. Freezing levels will be well below Pass level through the next few days.
Winds: Northerly flow will eventually swing east by tomorrow afternoon. JDM
Short term: A ridge of high pressure is building off the western coast; this will produce dry and cool weather for the remainder of the week - might even get some sun.
Long-term: There is an interesting large low-pressure system developing in the Gulf of Alaska – It may be strong enough to push through the blocking ridge by the weekend. Stay tuned as that develops.
24 hour forecast starting at noon on Tuesday
Precipitation
“ Water: 0
“ of Snow: 0
Temperatures (F):
4000’ Low: 16 High: 24
5000’ Low: 18 High: 22
Winds speed/Direction
Pass level: 0-5 NW
Ridge top: 0-10 N
TRENDS AND TIMING
Precipitation: The few snow flurries floating around today will end as high pressure builds over the area.
Freezing levels: Surface temperature will be held low due to cool air coming in from the northeast and clearing skies. Freezing levels will be well below Pass level through the next few days.
Winds: Northerly flow will eventually swing east by tomorrow afternoon. JDM
December 21, 2009
TRAINING
Hill Safety / Risk Management:
Read the handouts at bump (RCW, Intoxicated Guests)
Camera use and Paperwork Forms w/ A.I. team member
Learn where all the Ski schools are; Lyons...Stevens....Olympic...Kids' Club.....
Complete any missed trainings:
Partner search, Dispatch / Aid room, Explosives Security, Evac skills and Rack, Section Chief.
(Just ask for help and you will get it)
Read the handouts at bump (RCW, Intoxicated Guests)
Camera use and Paperwork Forms w/ A.I. team member
Learn where all the Ski schools are; Lyons...Stevens....Olympic...Kids' Club.....
Complete any missed trainings:
Partner search, Dispatch / Aid room, Explosives Security, Evac skills and Rack, Section Chief.
(Just ask for help and you will get it)
December 20, 2009
SPOT WEATHER FORECAST
12/20/2009 Weather
Short term: It is nice to know that Mother Nature has a few tricks left to fool us all. The moisture just didn’t quite make it far enough east. Radar continues to show the bulk of the moisture just west of the crest. A big change tomorrow as a strong cold front drives in, dropping freezing levels and allowing the moisture to turn to snow.
Long-term: A high-pressure ridge will build mid week producing dry cool weather for remainder of the week.
24 hour forecast starting at noon on Sunday
Precipitation
“ Water: .25-.5
“ of Snow: Trace – maybe an inch or two on the ridge.
Temperatures (F):
4000’ Low: 28 High: 34
5000’ Low: 24 (tomorrow am) High: 36
Winds speed/Direction
Pass level: 0-5 SSE
Ridge top: 0-10 SSE
TRENDS AND TIMING
Precipitation: Expect this saturation to continue through the night. Snow should show up after 7am tomorrow, hopefully we will get some nice snow on the ground before things completely dry out on Tuesday.
Freezing levels: Freezing levels will remain high (6-7000’) through the night. Temperatures will then drop in the wake of the approaching cold front tomorrow morning. Freezing levels should drop below Pass level by noon tomorrow and then continue its decline, reaching a 1000’ or lower on Tuesday.
Winds: Southerly flow will continue until the cold front passes through tomorrow morning. Expect gusty westerly’s (20+ mph) when front arrives sometime after 10 am tomorrow. JDM
Short term: It is nice to know that Mother Nature has a few tricks left to fool us all. The moisture just didn’t quite make it far enough east. Radar continues to show the bulk of the moisture just west of the crest. A big change tomorrow as a strong cold front drives in, dropping freezing levels and allowing the moisture to turn to snow.
Long-term: A high-pressure ridge will build mid week producing dry cool weather for remainder of the week.
24 hour forecast starting at noon on Sunday
Precipitation
“ Water: .25-.5
“ of Snow: Trace – maybe an inch or two on the ridge.
Temperatures (F):
4000’ Low: 28 High: 34
5000’ Low: 24 (tomorrow am) High: 36
Winds speed/Direction
Pass level: 0-5 SSE
Ridge top: 0-10 SSE
TRENDS AND TIMING
Precipitation: Expect this saturation to continue through the night. Snow should show up after 7am tomorrow, hopefully we will get some nice snow on the ground before things completely dry out on Tuesday.
Freezing levels: Freezing levels will remain high (6-7000’) through the night. Temperatures will then drop in the wake of the approaching cold front tomorrow morning. Freezing levels should drop below Pass level by noon tomorrow and then continue its decline, reaching a 1000’ or lower on Tuesday.
Winds: Southerly flow will continue until the cold front passes through tomorrow morning. Expect gusty westerly’s (20+ mph) when front arrives sometime after 10 am tomorrow. JDM
December 19, 2009
SPOT WEATHER FORECAST
12/19/2009 Weather
Short term: Things should briefly dry out today before the next system tracks in tonight. A low-pressure system will stall when it hits land this evening. This will spin bands of moisture through the mountains for the next few days.
Long-term: Confidence is still low in long-term models. Could get a little snow on Monday. A ridge of high pressure may develop midweek producing a few dry, cool days. Beyond that is anyone’s guess.
24 hour forecast starting at noon on Saturday
Precipitation
“ Water: .75+
“ of Snow: if snow – 6-10”
Temperatures (F):
4000’ Low: 32 High: 36
5000’ Low: 28 High: 34
Winds speed/Direction
Pass level: 0-5 E
Ridge top: 0-10 ESE
TRENDS AND TIMING
Precipitation: A very saturated air mass will begin to move east today and bring a brief dry period this afternoon. A juicy warm front will bring a mixed bag of freezing rain, rain and snow to the Pass tonight. Could get snow above 4500’ if we are lucky.
Freezing levels: There is hope that the developing east flow will overtake the warm advection from the west tonight but that is uncertain. Freezing levels may drop to 4500’ this afternoon but not much further. Freezing levels will rise to 6000’ tomorrow before a cold front moving in on Monday drops them below pass level.
Winds: East flow is expected to develop tonight. This will eventually be overtaken by SW flow tomorrow. JDM
Short term: Things should briefly dry out today before the next system tracks in tonight. A low-pressure system will stall when it hits land this evening. This will spin bands of moisture through the mountains for the next few days.
Long-term: Confidence is still low in long-term models. Could get a little snow on Monday. A ridge of high pressure may develop midweek producing a few dry, cool days. Beyond that is anyone’s guess.
24 hour forecast starting at noon on Saturday
Precipitation
“ Water: .75+
“ of Snow: if snow – 6-10”
Temperatures (F):
4000’ Low: 32 High: 36
5000’ Low: 28 High: 34
Winds speed/Direction
Pass level: 0-5 E
Ridge top: 0-10 ESE
TRENDS AND TIMING
Precipitation: A very saturated air mass will begin to move east today and bring a brief dry period this afternoon. A juicy warm front will bring a mixed bag of freezing rain, rain and snow to the Pass tonight. Could get snow above 4500’ if we are lucky.
Freezing levels: There is hope that the developing east flow will overtake the warm advection from the west tonight but that is uncertain. Freezing levels may drop to 4500’ this afternoon but not much further. Freezing levels will rise to 6000’ tomorrow before a cold front moving in on Monday drops them below pass level.
Winds: East flow is expected to develop tonight. This will eventually be overtaken by SW flow tomorrow. JDM
December 18, 2009
Training
New : Hill safety / Risk management starting Saturday
Old : Get your 5 minute Partner search, your Lift evac skills & backside rack & your Dispatch / Aid room done. People are here to help you, just ask.
Old : Get your 5 minute Partner search, your Lift evac skills & backside rack & your Dispatch / Aid room done. People are here to help you, just ask.
SPOT WEATHER FORECAST
12/18/2009 Weather
Short term: A weak system will bring a chance of some light snow tonight. The next system will drive up from the south tomorrow night bringing a mix snow and rain event to the Cascades tomorrow night. If we get lucky with the temps, this could be a good snow producer for us.
Long-term: Next week is very uncertain due to the inconsistency of the models. In general is it looking cooler with some weak systems being spun in mid week or so. No huge weather events expected at this time. Sorry, that’s all I got for now.
24 hour forecast starting at noon on Friday
Precipitation
“ Water: lt .25
“ of Snow: trace-2
Temperatures (F):
4000’ Low: 30 High: 36
5000’ Low: 30 High: 32
Winds speed/Direction
Pass level: 0-5 SE
Ridge top: 0-10 SW – East tomorrow
TRENDS AND TIMING
Precipitation: Light snow will develop tonight and then quickly taper off as the atmosphere stabilizes a bit. Clouds will thicken tomorrow as the next system approaches. Snow/rain mix will begin after 4pm tomorrow.
Freezing levels: Freezing levels will remain right on the cusp for the next 24-36 hours –(4500’) East flow will help to hold surface temperature near freezing during tomorrow evenings moisture event Should be snow above 4500’ but could be rain at the base. . Let’s hope for the best.
Winds: Not much in the way of winds for the next 24 hours. East flow will develop tomorrow. jdm
Short term: A weak system will bring a chance of some light snow tonight. The next system will drive up from the south tomorrow night bringing a mix snow and rain event to the Cascades tomorrow night. If we get lucky with the temps, this could be a good snow producer for us.
Long-term: Next week is very uncertain due to the inconsistency of the models. In general is it looking cooler with some weak systems being spun in mid week or so. No huge weather events expected at this time. Sorry, that’s all I got for now.
24 hour forecast starting at noon on Friday
Precipitation
“ Water: lt .25
“ of Snow: trace-2
Temperatures (F):
4000’ Low: 30 High: 36
5000’ Low: 30 High: 32
Winds speed/Direction
Pass level: 0-5 SE
Ridge top: 0-10 SW – East tomorrow
TRENDS AND TIMING
Precipitation: Light snow will develop tonight and then quickly taper off as the atmosphere stabilizes a bit. Clouds will thicken tomorrow as the next system approaches. Snow/rain mix will begin after 4pm tomorrow.
Freezing levels: Freezing levels will remain right on the cusp for the next 24-36 hours –(4500’) East flow will help to hold surface temperature near freezing during tomorrow evenings moisture event Should be snow above 4500’ but could be rain at the base. . Let’s hope for the best.
Winds: Not much in the way of winds for the next 24 hours. East flow will develop tomorrow. jdm
December 17, 2009
Start Time Friday--7:30am
I expected more activity this morning on control down to the faceted layer on the Late November crust but Hunter reminded me the layering is there but no energy in the pack yet.
Will haunt us in February.
See you in the morning.
Jon
Will haunt us in February.
See you in the morning.
Jon
SPOT WEATHER FORECAST
12/17/2009 Weather
Short term: Another warm front will hit the coast tomorrow morning bringing more moisture and mild temperatures to PNW.
Long-term: Saturday will be an interim day of dry weather before the next frontal system arrives sometime on Sunday. Active weather is expected to continue next week with several systems in line for the PNW.
24 hour forecast starting at noon on Thursday
Precipitation
“ Water: .25
“ of Snow: 2-4
Temperatures (F):
4000’ Low: 30 High: 34
5000’ Low: 28 High: 32
Winds speed/Direction
Pass level: 0-5 ESE
Ridge top: 0-10 SE
TRENDS AND TIMING
Precipitation: Light snow showers will continue through the night. The main push of moisture will arrive after 4am tomorrow, thus, expect rain/snow mix tomorrow morning tapering to showers by noon or so. A drying trend will develop tomorrow night lasting through Saturday.
Freezing levels: Freezing levels will rise from 4000’ to 5000’ today. East flow will help keep surface temperatures close to freezing through the night. Freezing levels will hover between 4000’ and 5000’ until Saturday morning when they are expected to fall.
Winds: Light east flow will develop today and remain in place until the front passes through sometime tomorrow afternoon. JDM
Short term: Another warm front will hit the coast tomorrow morning bringing more moisture and mild temperatures to PNW.
Long-term: Saturday will be an interim day of dry weather before the next frontal system arrives sometime on Sunday. Active weather is expected to continue next week with several systems in line for the PNW.
24 hour forecast starting at noon on Thursday
Precipitation
“ Water: .25
“ of Snow: 2-4
Temperatures (F):
4000’ Low: 30 High: 34
5000’ Low: 28 High: 32
Winds speed/Direction
Pass level: 0-5 ESE
Ridge top: 0-10 SE
TRENDS AND TIMING
Precipitation: Light snow showers will continue through the night. The main push of moisture will arrive after 4am tomorrow, thus, expect rain/snow mix tomorrow morning tapering to showers by noon or so. A drying trend will develop tomorrow night lasting through Saturday.
Freezing levels: Freezing levels will rise from 4000’ to 5000’ today. East flow will help keep surface temperatures close to freezing through the night. Freezing levels will hover between 4000’ and 5000’ until Saturday morning when they are expected to fall.
Winds: Light east flow will develop today and remain in place until the front passes through sometime tomorrow afternoon. JDM
December 16, 2009
Start Time Thursday--6:15am
Current Avalanche Potential conditions-3" of snow overnight-at 12:30am an aditional 4" with warming. No natural activity observed but skier trigger 12-14" in places not skied, running full distance, no hazard.
Pattys snow profile from Saturday showed around 20cms of multi-layered snow on the late November crust.
Skiing around today found collapsing in areas that have not slid on the late November crust.
So with around 74 cms of multi-layered snow on the late November crust will see what happens tonight with the additional warming and snow load.
Possible ridge tops in the morning to flush some of those areas out.
Jon
Pattys snow profile from Saturday showed around 20cms of multi-layered snow on the late November crust.
Skiing around today found collapsing in areas that have not slid on the late November crust.
So with around 74 cms of multi-layered snow on the late November crust will see what happens tonight with the additional warming and snow load.
Possible ridge tops in the morning to flush some of those areas out.
Jon
SPOT WEATHER FORECAST
12/16/2009 Weather
Short term: This wet snow will continue through the night. Could see some rain mixed in there as the freezing levels rise a bit this evening.
Long-term: Several warm wet frontal bands will pass over the North Central Cascades for the remainder of the week. The weekend should start out dry with another wet system moving in on Sunday/Monday.
24 hour forecast starting at noon on Wednesday
Precipitation
“ Water: .5-.75
“ of Snow: 6-10 on upper mountain
Temperatures (F):
4000’ Low: 32 High: 36
5000’ Low: 30 High: 34
Winds speed/Direction
Pass level: 5-15 WSW gusty
Ridge top: 10-20 WSW gusty
TRENDS AND TIMING
Precipitation: If this east flow holds in there, we should stay in snow for most of the day. It will be possible to get rain at the base and mixed rain and snow below Hogs Back and heavy show on the upper mountain tonight.
Freezing levels: Freezing levels are currently at 4500’ and are expected to inch up to 5000’ tonight. Snow levels will hopefully stay near 4000’ but could rise as the cool air trapped in the eastern basin erodes.
Winds: Stronger westerly flow will override today bringing with it some gusty conditions. Expect ridge top wind gust to exceed 30mph tonight. Winds should taper as they swing SW again tomorrow.
Short term: This wet snow will continue through the night. Could see some rain mixed in there as the freezing levels rise a bit this evening.
Long-term: Several warm wet frontal bands will pass over the North Central Cascades for the remainder of the week. The weekend should start out dry with another wet system moving in on Sunday/Monday.
24 hour forecast starting at noon on Wednesday
Precipitation
“ Water: .5-.75
“ of Snow: 6-10 on upper mountain
Temperatures (F):
4000’ Low: 32 High: 36
5000’ Low: 30 High: 34
Winds speed/Direction
Pass level: 5-15 WSW gusty
Ridge top: 10-20 WSW gusty
TRENDS AND TIMING
Precipitation: If this east flow holds in there, we should stay in snow for most of the day. It will be possible to get rain at the base and mixed rain and snow below Hogs Back and heavy show on the upper mountain tonight.
Freezing levels: Freezing levels are currently at 4500’ and are expected to inch up to 5000’ tonight. Snow levels will hopefully stay near 4000’ but could rise as the cool air trapped in the eastern basin erodes.
Winds: Stronger westerly flow will override today bringing with it some gusty conditions. Expect ridge top wind gust to exceed 30mph tonight. Winds should taper as they swing SW again tomorrow.
December 15, 2009
Spot weather forecast
SORRY HAVING PROBLEMS PASTEING MY FORECAST TO THE BLOG.
Go to ALLPSI Stevens Email for forecast.
John Schafer - can you look into this. It might be a problem on my end - but not sure.
Thanks
December 14, 2009
SPOT WEATHER FORECAST
12/14/2009 Weather
Short term: Several strong frontals system will bring snow to the Pass tonight and then again tomorrow night.
Long-term: Active weather will continue through the week. A warmer system with freezing levels rising above pass level is expected by the weekend. Long-term models differ on the precipitation associated with the weekend weather so I will leave that for later in the week.
24 hour forecast starting at noon on Monday
Precipitation “ Water: .5-.75 “ of Snow: 6-10” |
temperatures (F): 4000’ Low: 14 High: 32 5000’ Low: 12 High: 30 |
Winds speed/Direction Pass level: 0-5 E Ridge top: 5-10 SE shifting SW |
TRENDS AND TIMING
Precipitation: Snow showers will persist today ahead of fast approaching frontal system. Look for snow to ramp up tonight as the system moves through -should have most of the snow on the ground by 7am. Snow will quickly turn to shower tomorrow in preparation for the next system expected to move in tomorrow night.
Freezing levels: East flow will help hold freezing levels low over the crest through the night. Freezing levels will rise to 4000’ after 7 am tomorrow and hover between 4000’ and 5000’ for the day. Snow levels should stay below pass level for most of the day.
Winds: East flow at the surface will persist through the day. Winds will slowly shift S then SW through the night. SW flow will continue through most of the week. jdm
December 13, 2009
December 12, 2009
SPOT WEATHER FORECAST
Humm? I was unable to copy and paste my forecast to this page. Not sure why.
Check with Jon, Patty or Chris to post the forecast from the Stevens Pass email.
December 11, 2009
SPOT WEATHER FORECAST
Andrews might get his captial wish that he ordered.
12/11/2009 Weather
Short term: A few drier, but warmer days are in store before things slowly begin to change over the weekend. Clouds will thicken, which will help us maintain reasonable temperatures through the night.
Long-term: Finally, there is weather worth watching. A weak system will engulf the PNW on Sunday bringing some light snow to the Pass. A more interesting system to watch is a low-pressure system currently tracking toward PNW coast. There is still a lot of time for things to change, but for now, the potential of significant snow is looking better for late Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday.
24 hour forecast starting at noon on Friday
Precipitation “ Water: 0 “ of Snow: 0 |
temperatures (F): 4000’ Low: 16 High: 24 5000’ Low: 18 High: 26 |
|
Winds speed/Direction Pass level: 0-5 W Ridge top: 5-10 W |
TRENDS AND TIMING
Precipitation: 0
Freezing levels: Freezing levels will continue to inch up, reaching 2000’ by noon tomorrow. There is still plenty of cold air trapped in the eastern valleys, so the warm air aloft will struggle to warm the surface. Freezing levels will hover around 2000’ through most of the weekend.
Winds: Westerly flow will remain light for the next 24 hours. Westerly flow will then strengthen as the weekend progresses. JDM
December 10, 2009
Start Time Friday--7:30am
I made a capitol request for 24" of snow for the Christmas week. However due to buisness levels the company granted capitol money for 14". At least its something. Now it is up to Meriwether to produce.
Here is our Explosives Security Plan that we need to review. It is also posted on the weather board.
Jon
Stevens Pass Explosives Security
Winter Season
Ski Patrol will check daily- Locks on Magazine Doors and Locks on Make Up Room door.
-Insure locks are locked and that no tampering has taken place.
-Document on the Daily Hill log time and initial w/radio number.
-Forecaster will check daily- Magazines in the Make Up Room.
Summer Season
Weekly Inventories and Magazine Inspections will take place.
Theft of Explosives-Persons requesting a Magazine Inspection
-When you do the Magazine Inspections and find magazines unlocked or tampered with or if a person says they need to do an Inspection----------
First- Notify in this order-Jon Andrews (206)949-7112, Steve Allen (206)949-7167
Patty Morrison (206)949-1353
Second- If a person approaches you and says they need to do an Inspection of the Explosives Magazines----Ask for their identification and hold onto it. Call security Paul Rohrbach (509)630-7532 or ext. 4248 or channel 1- if Jon Andrews, Steve Allen or Patty Morrison is not available. These three are the only individuals that will allow access to the Magazines.
If you find Magazines unlocked or Tampered with Notify in this order
Jon Andrews (206)949-7112, Steve Allen (206)949-7167, Patty Morrison (206)949-1353
Theft of Explosives Notify
State L and I Mason Reiter (360)902-5569, Geri Woods (360)416-3037
ATF 1-888-283-2662
SPOT WEATHER FORECAST
12/10/2009 Weather
Short term: Dry with progressively warmer conditions will continue today. Clear nights will continue to create very low temperatures, but the days should be pleasant.
Long-term: Overriding warming will continue as this pattern slowly changes. A low- pressure system tracking into Organ on Saturday will extend north bringing a chance of light snow to the southern Cascades. Not sure if it will make it as far north as Stevens Pass. The middle of next week is looking like the next best chance of any significant snow.
24 hour forecast starting at noon on Thursday
Precipitation
“ Water: 0
“ of Snow: 0
temperatures (F):
4000’ Low: 10 High: 26
5000’ Low: 12 High: 28
Winds speed/Direction
Pass level: 0-5 WNW
Ridge top: 0-5 WNW
TRENDS AND TIMING
Precipitation: 0
Freezing levels: Surface temps will dip low again tonight but should rebound nicely to the mid to upper 20’s tomorrow. FL’s should reach 2-2500’ tomorrow and stay around that level through the weekend.
Winds: Very light winds will continue through the weekend. Flow aloft will be predominantly westerly through the weekend.JDM
December 9, 2009
Start Time Thursday--7:30am
IMAGIN THAT 7:30 start time. I don't know what to say different right now other than it was warmer today than yesterday.
Jon
SPOT WEATHER FORECAST
12/9/2009 Weather
Short term: The high pressure that has gripped us the last week will begin to degrade and slowly move east. This will allow warm air from the southwest to invade. In fact, it is currently a few degrees warmer on the upper mountain than in the base area. This transition will be very slow so expect the sun with some high clouds to stick around for the remainder of the week. Watch for an inversion layer to develop as dew points and humidity’s rise.
Long-term: This slow pattern change will continue into the weekend. A system tracking up from Oregon could bring the potential for some precipitation on Saturday. Details on this system are still sketchy- these “wrap around” (tracking in from the south east) events are not usually big snow producers. But, it’s a start.
24 hour forecast starting at noon on Wednesday
Precipitation
“ Water: 0
“ of Snow: 0
temperatures (F):
4000’ Low: 14 High: 20
5000’ Low: 16 High: 24
Winds speed/Direction
Pass level: 0-5 NNW
Ridge top: 0-5 NNW – shifting W
TRENDS AND TIMING
Precipitation: 0
Freezing levels: Freezing levels should lift from sea level today and reach 2000’ by Friday morning. We will continue to have cool nights with day time temperature reaching the 20’s. This diurnal temperature pattern could produce a melt freeze cycle above 4000’ during the next 2-4 days.
Winds: Very light winds out of the north will slowly swing westerly in the next 24 hours. Light westerly flow will continue into the weekend. Could see some light east flow at the surface as gradients fight for position, but for the most part, the winds will be very light regardless of direction. JDM
December 8, 2009
Start Time Wednesday--7:30am
I think this morning might be our coldest part of the cold spell at -7 this morning.
If we market the streets of Seattle it seems it would be about the same type of ski conditions.
SPOT WEATHER FORECAST
12/8/2009 Weather
Short term: -6 this morning, burr…. The good news is that the low temperatures may have hit bottom for the week. A very slow warming trend will begin tonight.
Long-term: Cold and dry condition will continue for the rest of the week. Warmer air from the SW will slowly begin to affect our weather pattern by the weekend. No significant precipitation is expected in the Cascades until next week.
24 hour forecast starting at noon on Tuesday
Precipitation
“ Water: 0
“ of Snow: 0
temperatures (F):
4000’ Low: -6 High: 12
5000’ Low: -10 High: 10
Winds speed/Direction
Pass level: 0-5 E
Ridge top: 0-5 NE
TRENDS AND TIMING
Precipitation: 0
Freezing levels: Surface temperatures will struggle to get out of the single digits today. Freezing levels will begin to rise tonight. It will be a slow climb but freezing levels should be around 2000’ by Friday.
Winds: Light east flow will continue today and then shift northerly. JDM
December 7, 2009
Local Long range weather thoughts and El Nino influences
The storm track tells the story of the influences of El NINO. Take a look at this jet streak model from the UofM atmospheric Center: (streak is correct, it is not technically a continuous stream)
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?h250_wind+/-168//
You will notice that the jet streak splits with the main streak heading south to California, then accross the southern US, and then up the eastern seaboard. During the run you will notice the big void running North South up the coast - that is the big blocking ridge that has been the culprit of this cold dry pattern. This is typical El Nino influences.
Hope - Towards the end of the model series you will see it inch up toward Org/Wa border. If this hold true, it will draw up warmer air from the SW. Because warm air typically holds more moisture it is likely for this to be be our next best chance to get snow. ...JDM
EL NINO forecast
Below is some of the synopsis from NOAA's Climate predicion center on El NINO. It is paraphrased a bit. If you want the whole thing go to:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/
JDM
El Niño is expected to continue strengthening and last through at least the Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-2010. ...During October 2009, sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies increased across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean ...Consistent with the historical evolution of El Niño, a peak in SST anomalies is expected sometime during November-January...the most likely outcome is that El Niño will peak at least at moderate strength (3-month Niño-3.4 SST index of +1.0°C or greater) and last through at least the Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10...
Expected El Niño impacts during November 2009-January 2010 include enhanced precipitation over the central tropical Pacific Ocean and a continuation of drier-than-average conditions over Indonesia. For the contiguous United States, potential impacts include above-average precipitation for Florida, central and eastern Texas, and California, with below-average precipitation for parts of the Pacific Northwest. Above-average temperatures and below-average snowfall is most likely for the Northern Rockies, Northern Plains, and Upper Midwest, while below-average temperatures are expected for the southeastern states.
December 6, 2009
TRAINING
"Dispatch training"
Get with dispatch for a Reveiw / Refresher.
trainers are 226, 202, 234, 228, 208, 236 & 219
December 4, 2009
THE SPOT WEATHER FORECAST
12/4/2009 Weather
Short term: Windy! The pressure gradients between the east and the west are producing these gusty conditions. It will remain breezy today as cool NE air moves into the region. Could see a flurry or two as a system passes to the northeast.
Long-term: A blocking ridge off the northwestern coast will drive the main storm track into southern California through most of next week. This will only allow small disturbances into the PNW.
24 hour forecast starting at noon on Friday
Precipitation
“ Water: lt .10
“ of Snow: 0-2
temperatures (F):
4000’ Low: 16 High: 24
5000’ Low: 12 High: 20
Winds speed/Direction
Pass level: 5- 10 N
Ridge top: 5-15 NE gusty
TRENDS AND TIMING
Precipitation: Flurries possible today as a system drift past to the northeast. The rest of the weekend will be dry with a chance of some more light snow on Sunday.
Freezing levels: Freezing levels will drop today to reach sea level or below tomorrow. Temperatures will remain very low through the weekend. Lows will drop to single digits on Sunday.
Winds: Winds should taper today as the flow swings more easterly. Gusty easterlies will continue through the weekend. Could have a strong east flow wind event on Sunday. jdm
)
December 3, 2009
Start Time Friday 7:30am
Being how we are not in a melt-freeze cycle the skiing is actually improving. With these cold temps. the crust is breaking down to more faceted and surface hoar snow.
Jon
SPOT WEATHER FORECAST
12/3/2009 Weather
Short term: Another beautiful day with some warmer temperatures is in store for the Pass today. A system drifting by to the north will bring some high clouds, but for the most part we should remain dry and mild for the next 24 hours.
Long-term: The headlines for the weekend will be cold. Cold and dry arctic air will flow in from the Canadian interior; this will bring freezing levels to sea level for the weekend. Keep an eye on those water pipes. The next chance of some snow will hopefully start to show up by the middle of next week.
24 hour forecast starting at noon on Thursday
Precipitation
“ Water: very light .10
“ of Snow: flurries.
temperatures (F):
4000’ Low: 24 High: 30
5000’ Low: 20 High: 28
Winds speed/Direction
Pass level: 0-5 SE
Ridge top: 5-10 SE shifting W gusty
TRENDS AND TIMING
Precipitation: A system dropping down from Canada will brush the NE corner of the state tonight, we might get a flurry or two but no accumulation expected. Dry through the weekend.
Freezing levels: Freezing levels will briefly climb to 4000’ tonight before they plummet tomorrow afternoon. Cold arctic air will flow in through the infamous Frazer River Gap tomorrow evening; This will produce the coldest temperatures of the season thus far. Watch for those single digit lows in the upper Wenatchee Valley over the weekend.
Winds: The flow aloft will circle the clock during the next 24-48hours. East to South to West to Northwest and then back to East . Winds will be gusty at times as the temperature rises and falls. jdm
December 2, 2009
SPOT WEATHER FORECAST
12/2/2009 Weather
Short term: Bluebird.
Long-term: High-pressure limbo through the weekend. A weak disturbance moving north of the state will bring some warmer temps and some clouds on Friday, but for the most part, it will remain dry and cool through the weekend. Next chance of some precipitation will not be until the middle of next week.
24 hour forecast starting at noon on Wednesday
Precipitation
“ Water: 0
“ of Snow: 0
temperatures (F):
4000’ Low: 15 High: 24
5000’ Low: 10 High: 22
Winds speed/Direction
Pass level: 0-5 E
Ridge top: 5-10 ENE
TRENDS AND TIMING
Precipitation: With dew points in the single digits and RH levels less than 50%, it will be hard for even a cloud to form.
Freezing levels: 13 degrees as a low this morning, burr. We can expect the same tonight and tomorrow. Freezing levels will be pretty high west of the crest (7000’) and remain cold to the east. East flow will keep surface temps very low.
Winds: East flow at the surface will continue to be driven by NE flow aloft for the next. jdm
December 1, 2009
Start Time Wednesday 7:30am
Good spring skiing today and should be tommorow. Near surface faceted layers starting to develope.
SPOT WEATHER FORECAST
12/1/2009 Weather
Short term: We can expect patchy clouds with sun breaks today. Clouds should thin with over all clearing through the night as high pressure builds over the region.
Long-term: A high-pressure cell taking up the entire gulf of Alaska will bring dry and cold weather to the PNW for the extended period. When will this dry spell end? Long-range models are fighting over this – For now, let’s say late in the weekend or early next week.
24 hour forecast starting at noon on Tuesday
Precipitation
“ Water: 0
“ of Snow: 0
temperatures (F):
4000’ Low: 20 High: 26
5000’ Low: 16 High: 24
Winds speed/Direction
Pass level: 0-5 E
Ridge top: 5-10 E
TRENDS AND TIMING
Precipitation: High pressure and a stabilizing atmosphere imply no moisture available.
Freezing levels: Freezing levels will hover around the 3000’ mark. But, as cool air filters in from the northeast interior, coupled with clear skies, surface temperatures could dip quite low during the next few days.
Winds: East/off shore flow will continue through Thursday. jdm
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