January 30, 2011

Blocking Ridge Development

A stubborn high pressure ridge will most likely block any storms from tracking toward the PNW for the next 6-8 days.  The cold air will hopefully preserve the snow we do have.

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8:00 AM Start for Monday January 31st

January 29, 2011

8:00 AM Start time for Sunday January 30th

Fraser River Out Flow

If you read other weather discussions, you know of the the Fraser River out flow.  This is a geographical event that directs cool arctic air from interior Canada into Washington.  It is interesting how it splits and fills around the north/south oriented mountains.  This event is what will bring cool temperatures during the up coming days.  

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STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER

1/29/2011 Weather


24HR SNAP SHOT starting at NOON today

Water - .25 -.5  Snow - 3-5
Freezing Levels -  4000'  dropping to 2500'
Winds - 0-10 W shifting E


General Discussion: Those lower temps are sure taking their sweet time getting here. The precipitation will continue today. High pressure will begin to build tomorrow bringing and end to the moisture.

Long-term: Cool and clear conditions will greet the coming week.


TRENDS AND TIMING
Precipitation: Snow will continue until 4am tomorrow morning. The rain mix potential should dwindle as cooler air makes its way south today.

Freezing levels: Freezing levels will hover near pass level until later today. Cool air streaming in from the NE will quickly drop temperatures well below freezing by tomorrow.

Winds: Westerly flow will give way to easterly flow tonight. East winds will push through the Pass tomorrow and Monday.

January 28, 2011

800 AM start for Saturday January 29th

STEVENS PASS MOUTAIN WEATHER

1/28/2011 Weather

24HR SNAP SHOT starting at NOON today

Water - .5  Snow 4-6
Freezing levels - 4500' falling to 3500'
Winds 5-20 W



General Discussion: A cold front will drop down from the north today bringing a round or precipitation to the mountains through tomorrow.

Long-term: Snow showers will linger into Sunday morning. A high pressure ridge coupled with off shore/east flow will bring a cool and dry start to the week ahead.



TRENDS AND TIMING
Precipitation: There will be a mixed bag of moisture today consisting of snow/rain/snow mix. Lowering freezing levels will change all moisture to snow overnight. Snow is expected to slowly taper off by early Sunday morning.

Freezing levels: Freezing levels will slowly fall through the next 24hrs. Freezing levels will continue to fall through the weekend, possible reach 1000’ or lower on Sunday.

Winds: Westerly flow will strengthen today. 20+mph ridge top winds will be possible following the front. Winds will quickly taper off and shift east tomorrow.

January 27, 2011

Start Time Friday---8:00am

GROWNING CORN AT STEVENS PASS

1/27/2011 Weather

24HR SNAP SHOT  starting at NOON today

Water - .10  Snow 1-2
Freezing levels -  7500' falling to 4000'
Winds 0-10 W



General Discussion: Great corn skiing conditions today. Clouds will thicken today as a cold front approaches the coast. Snow is expected tomorrow and Saturday.

Long-term: High pressure is expected to re-build on Sunday. This will to set up a multiple day dry period with cool NE flow returning seasonally normal temperatures.


TRENDS AND TIMING
Precipitation: Tonight will remain dry. Snow will develop mid morning tomorrow. Light to moderate snow will continue through the day.

Freezing levels: Freezing levels are expected to fall to 4000’ after 4am and remain near pass level through the day. Cooler air from the NE will bring a return to seasonal temperatures over the weekend.

Winds: Light westerly flow will continue for the next 24 hrs. Some moderate gust should be expected as the front moves through tomorrow. East flow will likely develop on Saturday.

January 26, 2011

Start Time Thursday---8:00am

STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER

1/26/2011 Weather


24HR SNAP SHOT starting at NOON today

Water - 0
Freezing Levels -  7000'+
Winds - 0-10 W


General Discussion: High pressure aloft will keep the mountains dry and warm today. Total blue bird condition probable won’t happen due to these persistant high clouds hanging around.

Long-term: The high pressure is expected to weaken on Friday. This should open the door for a few weak disturbances to make their way inland over the weekend. At this point, the freezing levels appear to be in our favor for snow on Friday and Saturday.


TRENDS AND TIMING
Precipitation: 0

Freezing levels: High freezing levels will continue for the next few days. Hopefully, these high level clouds will burn off and allow some cooling to occur overnight.

Winds: Light westerly flow will continue through Friday.

January 25, 2011

Start Time Wednesday---8:00am

STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER

1/25/2011 Weather

24HR SNAP SHOT starting at NOON today

Water - 0
Freezing levels - 4000' rising to 7000'
Winds - 0-10 W



General Discussion: High pressure will build today bringing warm and dry conditions to the PNW.

Long-term: Mild spring like condition will continue through the week. Watch for a melt freeze cycle to create great corn snow conditions.


TRENDS AND TIMING
Precipitation: A drying trend will start today.

Freezing levels: Freezing levels could reach as high as 8000’ by Thursday. However, clear nights will allow temperatures to dip near the freezing mark.

Winds: Easterly flow will give way to light westerly flow during the next 24hrs.

January 24, 2011

January 23, 2011

8:00am Start Time for Monday, Jan. 24th, 2010

High pressure builds

High pressure building over the north west next week will bring a prolonged warm and dry period.  Storm track heads north to southern Alaska.

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January 22, 2011

Climate vs Weather

La Nina/El Nino is a climate prediction.   A climate prediction is a big picture look at an entire season/year or series of years. A weather forecast attempt to predict what existing weather will do on a daily basis. How it will travel, how it gains or losses energy as it moves along.   Yes, La Nina influences general weather patterns that will have a effect on a seasonal climate - such as cooler and wetter in the PNW.  But it does not take responsibility for individual storm cycles or rain/snow events. 

Also when La Nina predictions talk about the PNW they mean from southern Alaska to Southern Oregon.  Stevens Pass is a small area that may or may not get the goods in any given weather event. (case in point so far this year)

Text book definitions:
Climate = the composite or generally prevailing weather conditions of a region, as temperature, air pressure, humidity, precipitation, sunshine, cloudiness, and winds, throughout the year, averaged over a series of years

Weather = the current state of the atmosphere with respect to wind, temperature, cloudiness, moisture, pressure, etc.

8:00am Start Time for Sunday, January 23rd, 2011

La Nina

Some discussions on what happenend to La Nina are floating around.  Well, she is well established.  I will be posting a few thoughts on the difference between weather and climate and how La Nina fits into that concept.

 For now, here is a summary of the National Climate La Nina predicition.

STRONG LA NINA CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE TROPICAL PACIFIC OCEAN...    ...PACIFIC OCEAN CONTINUES TO CLEARLY REFLECT MATURE LA NINA CONDITIONS. CONVECTION IS ENHANCED OVER INDONESIA, AND SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCED OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN.

TEMPs
THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR FEBRUARY 2011 CALLS FOR ENHANCED ODDS OF BELOW AVERAGE MEAN TEMPERATURES ALONG THE WEST COAST, IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES AND FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THERE ARE ENHANCED ODDS OF BELOW AVERAGE MEAN TEMPERATURES ALSO OVER MOST OF ALASKA, INCLUDING THE
ENTIRE PANHANDLE REGION.

PRECIP.
THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR FEBRUARY 2011 CALLS FOR ELEVATED ODDS OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES, (PNW) IN THE GREAT LAKES AND IN THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THERE ARE ELEVATED ODDS OF BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO TEXAS AND ACROSS THE EAST GULF COAST REGION INCLUDING ALL OF FLORIDA, AND THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST, AS WELL AS FOR A NARROW BAND OVER THE SOUTHERN COAST OF ALASKA, FROM KODIAK ISLAND TO NEAR YAKUTAT. 

STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER

1/22/2011 Weather

24HR SNAP SHOT starting at NOON today

Water - .25  Snow 1-3
Freezing levels -  3500 rising to 5k
Winds - 0-15 W


General Discussion: Building high pressure will begin to dry and stabilize the atmosphere today. Hopefully we will get some sun today as well. We will once again play the snow/rain game tomorrow and Monday as a few weak fronts, with freezing levels around 4500’ move through.

Long-term: High pressure is expected to build again on Tuesday. This is likely to produce warm and dry weather to finish out the week. Dare I say spring like?


TRENDS AND TIMING
Precipitation: These light snow showers will taper off today. Light snow rain mix will return after 4am tomorrow.

Freezing levels: Freezing levels will rise to 5000’ today. Sun breaks could push surface temperatures near 40f at times today. Freezing levels will bounce between 4000’ and 5000’ through Monday.

Winds: Westerly flow will continue through the weekend. Gusty frontal winds will be possible during early morning hours.

January 21, 2011

Start Time Saturday---8:00am

STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER

1/21/2011 Weather

24HR SNAP SHOT  starting at NOON today

Water - .25  Snow - 2-4
Freezing levels -  4500'  fallling to 3000'
Winds 5-20  W



General Discussion: The precipitation will begin to taper off this evening as high pressure builds over the region.

Long-term: The weekend will start out dry with mild temperatures. A weak system is expected to brush the mountains on Sunday. The long range outlook appears to be relatively dry with high freezing levels.

TRENDS AND TIMING
Precipitation: We should get a nice dose of snow today before it tapers off this evening.

Freezing levels: Freezing levels will slowly fall through the day.

Winds: Expect gusty westerly winds to continue today.

January 20, 2011

6:15AM START TIME Friday, Jan 21st

STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER

1/20/2011 Weather

24HR SNAP SHOT starting at NOON today

Water - .75  Snow -  6-10
Freezing levels -   3000' rising to 4500'
Winds - 5-20 W  gusty



General Discussion: Two frontal systems will pass through the mountains today and tomorrow. There will be a wide variety of outdoor experiences – rain, snow, and wind…

Long-term: High pressure is expected to build over the weekend. This will produce a dry and mild period for the PNW lasting well into next week..


TRENDS AND TIMING
Precipitation: Snow will develop today and intensify over night. Convergence conditions are possible. There will be a very brief interlude early tomorrow morning before the next front hits. Rain and or rain/snow mix will be possible below 4500’. The upper mountain should be all snow. There is a chance that it will be all snow – cross all your digits.

Freezing levels: Freezing levels are expected to reach 4000’ later this evening. Freezing levels will hover right at or just above pass level through tomorrow.

Winds: Westerly winds will also ramp up today as these storms intensify.

January 19, 2011

8:00 am Start Time for Thurs. January 20th, 2011

Could luck be with us? Think 3D

 Rain/snow mix will be possible but, cool air aloft is expected to fill in from the NW. 

700mb temp model. Notice the cooler air filling in from the NW coast line.  This could be the luck we need to keep snow levels in our favor. We will see.

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STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER

1/19/2011 Weather


24HR SNAP SHOT starting at NOON today

Water - <.25  Snow 1-3
Freezing levels - 1000' rising to 3500"
Winds - 0-10 W


General Discussion: Some of these clouds should burn off today as high pressure briefly builds over the region. Enjoy the sun, and the amazing moon, if you can.

Long-term: A system sliding down the BC coast will bring the next chance of precipitation tomorrow. Snow with a little rain mix will be possible during this 2 day storm. High pressure appears to re-build on Saturday so the weekend looks dry for now.

TRENDS AND TIMING
Precipitation: Today will be dry. Snow will develop mid morning tomorrow and fall through the day. There is a possibility of a mixed rain event tomorrow evening, but details are fuzzy at this point. Tune in tomorrow for a better handle on the possible rain.

Freezing levels: With clearing skies tonight, surface temps will dip into the teens. Freezing levels will slowly rise tomorrow morning. Freezing levels will reach 4000’ by mid to late afternoon. At this point, it looks like freezing levels will inch up to 4500’ and then begin to fall through the night.

Winds: Light westerly flow will continue through the night. Watch for ridge top winds to ramp up tomorrow as the frontal system approaches.

January 18, 2011

8:00 am Start Time for Wed. January 19, 2011

The rain has ended, and it was great skiing on 7th Heaven.

Yippee!!!

STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER

1/18/2011 Weather

24HR SNAP SHOT starting at NOON today

Water  <.25,  Snow 1-3
Freezing levels - 2500'  falling  >1000'
Winds  0-10 WNW



General Discussion: The storm cycle precipitation totals from Tuesday the 11th through yesterday morning was 13.19”of water - pretty impressive. The snow pack faired pretty well. Some light snow showers will be possible tonight with cooler temperatures settling in.

Long-term: A quiet couple of days are in store with a chance of some precipitation and rising freezing levels on Thursday/Friday.


TRENDS AND TIMING
Precipitation: Light passing snow showers will be possible through the day. Dry tomorrow.

Freezing levels: Freezing levels will fall below 1000’ tonight. Cool temperatures will settle in for the next 2 days.

Winds: Not much in the wind department but light northwesterly flow.

January 16, 2011

8:00 am Start Time for Monday Jan. 17th,2011

As of 12:00 noon, we have recieved 3.24 inches of precip. since 4:00pm yesterday.

STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER

1/16/2011 Weather
24HR SNAP SHOT starting at NOON today

Water - 1-2 Snow - 4-6
Freezing Levels -  6000' fallling to 3500'
Winds -  5-20 W gusty
General Discussion: One more very soggy day before this wet subtropical frontal system begins wane tomorrow. Snow tomorrow.

Long-term: A pattern change will begin tonight, thank goodness. Snow will return for the start of the week with building high pressure generating dry weather on Tuesday and Wednesday.


TRENDS AND TIMING
Precipitation: Heavy rain will continue for the next 12-16 hours. Cooler air will turn this precipitation to snow early tomorrow morning.

Freezing levels: Freezing levels will slowly fall through the night reaching pass level after 4am tomorrow.

Winds: Pesky ridge top winds will continue through the night. Winds will mellow as they switch NW tomorrow.

January 15, 2011

8am Start Time Sunday the 16th

Warm air and moisture driving in

STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER

1/15/2011 Weather


24HR SNAP SHOT starting at NOON today

Water - 1-3 Snow - 0
Freezing levels -   6500'
Winds -  10-20 W  gusty


General Discussion: The next round of heavy rain will hit the mountains this afternoon.

Long-term: Cooler air is expected to bring snow on Monday and Tuesday.


TRENDS AND TIMING
Precipitation: Heavy rain is expected for the next 24-36hrs. A brief period of mixed rain and snow will be possible this evening, but it will all be rain after midnight tonight.

Freezing levels: Freezing levels will rise to +6000’ by midnight tonight. Freezing levels will begin to fall early Monday morning.

Winds: Strong westerly flow will accompany today’s front. 20-40mph ridge top gust will be likely.

January 14, 2011

Hope on Monday

Jet stream model for Monday.  A better NW orientation.

Animation of Jet Stream Forecasts

STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER

1/14/2011 Weather


24HR SNAP SHOT starting at NOON today

Water - .25  Snow 0-3
Freezing Levels -  4500 to 5500'
Winds - 5-20 W  gust to 40 possible

General Discussion: Warm and wet conditions will continue through Sunday.

Long-term: Long range models are showing signs of cool NW flow with snow starting on Monday. Get your snow dances going.


TRENDS AND TIMING
Precipitation: There will be a break in the precipitation tonight and most of the day tomorrow. The next warm front will move in tomorrow afternoon bringing more heavy rain to the Pass.

Freezing levels: Freezing levels will continue to bounce between 4500’ and 5500’ through the weekend.

Winds: High ridge top winds will continue to accompany these fronts as they pass.

Start Time Saturday---8:00am

January 13, 2011

Start Time Friday---8:00am

STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER

1/13/2011 Weather



24HR SNAP SHOT starting at NOON today

Water - 1-1.25 Snow 4-6
Freezing levels -  4000'  to 6000'
Winds - 10-30 W


General Discussion: A steady stream of moisture with fluctuating freezing levels will continue for the next few days.

Long-term: This weather pattern will continue through the weekend. Long range models differ considerable on when this will all end, so stay warm and dry if you can.

TRENDS AND TIMING
Precipitation: Heavy rain is likely below 5000’ for the next 12-16hrs. Brief periods of mixed rain and snow will be possible.

Freezing levels: Freezing levels will lift to 5500’ today. Freezing levels will bounce between 4500’ and 5500’ for the next several days.

Winds: Winds will continue to be a factor as strong westerly flow gets well established. Ridge top gust near 50mph will be possible again tonight.

January 12, 2011

Start Time Thursday---6:15am

Looks like tomorrow morning will be the trickiest throughout this storm cycle.

STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER

1/12/2011 Weather

24HR SNAPSHOT starting at NOON today

Water - .75 - 1 Snow - 3-10
Freezing levels -  4000'  rising 5500'
Winds -  10-40 W


General Discussion: Nice storm. The next system, with continued warming is expected to arrive just after midnight. The precipitation will switch back and forth from snow to rain and everything in between for the next 2-5 days.

Long-term: This active SW storm track will continue to drive wet systems into the PNW well into the weekend. Impressive storm cycle totals in the range of 10-12”of water are being forecasted by the end of the weekend. Cool air will return early next week.


TRENDS AND TIMING
Precipitation: Snow will taper off this afternoon with light showers until midnight. The next hit of moisture will begin shortly after midnight. Heavy rain in the base area with snow rain mix is expected tomorrow morning below 5000’.

Freezing levels: Freezing levels will continue to rise today reaching 5500’ by early tomorrow morning. Freezing levels will then bounce between 4000’ and 5000’ as waves of cool air move through. Freezing levels are expected to stay at or above Pass level through the weekend.

Winds: Winds too will be a factor as strong westerly flow sets in today. Ridge top winds could exceed 50mph this afternoon. Winds will briefly switch easterly before the next front hits early tomorrow morning.

January 11, 2011

Start Time Wednesday---6:15am

Clay's Birthday present.

STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER

1/11/2011 Weather

24HR SNAPSHOT starting at NOON today

Water - .75 -1  Snow 8-12"
Freezing levels - 500' rising to 4000'
Winds  5-20 WSW gusty



General Discussion: A series of vigorous fronts tracking in from the SW will begin to pound the PNW tonight.

Long-term: This very active weather pattern will continue through the weekend. Freezing levels will be uncomfortable high after Thursday with rain, rain snow mix likely into the weekend.

TRENDS AND TIMING
Precipitation: Snow will begin to fall this afternoon and ramp up over night. Heavy snow will fall through noon tomorrow. There will be a break in the action tomorrow afternoon before the next warmer front moves in. Rain is expected below 4500’ on Thursday.

Freezing levels: Freezing levels will rise to 4000’ after 7am tomorrow. Snow levels will remain just at or below pass level through tomorrow. Freezing levels are expected to rise to 5000’ on Thursday.

Winds: East flow will strengthen tonight and then be overridden by SW flow sometime tomorrow. Strong winds will accompany these fronts so watch for high ridge top winds through these storms.

January 10, 2011

Start Time Tuesday---8:00am

Along with JMs avalanche warning comes the potential for older layers to react. About 10" of snow on the crust from late last week developed by wet snow above 4500' with multiple wind layers underneath.

Avalanche "Watchout"

This approaching storm is significant.  Specific details still need some time to be ironed out, but -  Storm totals in water equiv. are currently +2-4" It will be possible to get a few feet of snow and then a rain event.  An avalanche "watch out" situation on Thursday.

Warm front in red.

STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER

1/10/2011 Weather
24HR SNAPSHOTstarting at NOON today

Water - 0  snow 0
Freezing levels - Sea Level
Winds  5-15  E
General Discussion: Skies will try and clear today as high pressure builds. Things will get interesting tomorrow as a strong warm front tracks toward the PNW from the southwest. This approaching storm is packing a punch with heavy snow to start and possibly changing to rain on Thursday. Water totals may be in the several inches category. Stay tuned for details in tomorrow’s discussion.

Long-term: A southwest storm track will bring a very active weather pattern with lots of moisture and warm temperatures to cap off the week.


TRENDS AND TIMING

Precipitation: Other than few snow flurries this morning the next 24hrs will be mostly dry. Snow will arrive tomorrow afternoon.

Freezing levels: Freezing levels will drop to sea level today. Freezing levels will rapidly rise early Wednesday morning.

Winds: East flow will strengthen today and remain in place through early Wednesday morning.

January 9, 2011

A storm track?

A storm track is developing, but it is not from a favorable direction.   Several storms are setting up to track toward the PNW - from the SW.

There they are.

8:00am Start Time for January 10th,2011

WEATHER NOTE FOR NEXT WEEK

A few snow showers are still lingering in the PS Convergence Zone conveyer belt this morning.  A few cold and relatively dry days will follow.

 A unique and interesting weather event is shaping up for the middle of next week.  The battle between cold arctic air from the northeast, and a warm moist system tracking up from the south, will begin on Wednesday.  Snow in Seattle will be likely - snow/rain event on Thursday will also be  possible in the mountains. Stay tuned for all of that. 

850mb model for Wednesday - notice the center of the low centered off the Washington coast - this will be the driver that pushes the southern system toward the cold polar air sunk in the eastern basin.   It will be sporty.

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January 8, 2011

Puget Sound Convergence Hanging in there

Might get some snow out of this after all.  Check out the radar.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=ATX&product=NCR&overlay=11111111&loop=yes

Now thats what I'm takin about--GO Seahawks

8:00am Start Time for January 9th, 2010

STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER

1/8/2011 Weather

24HR SNAPSHOT starting at NOON today

Water - .10  Snow - 0-2
Freezing levels - falling to 500'
Winds - tapering shifting N than E.


General Discussion: The atmosphere will begin to stabilize today which will be the start of a cold, dry period.

Long-term: Cold air will fill in from the NE (Canada) during the next few days. This will create offshore/east flow which will produce surface temperatures in the single digits for the start of the week. A storm is tracking up from the south on Wednesday – a long ways out to be confident in the details, but if it holds true, it could be a big snow producer for the PNW.


TRENDS AND TIMING
Precipitation: Light snow showers will taper off today. Dry tomorrow and Monday.

Freezing levels: Freezing levels will fall to near sea level tomorrow. Surface temps below 0 will be possible on Monday.

Winds: These gusty westerly winds will mellow out and shift N than E during the next 12-24 hours.

January 7, 2011

8:00 Start Time for January 8th, 2011

Looks like we will have a few mini convergences throughout the evening.  Probably will be ski cutting in the morning.

Yippee!!!

Cold air on the way

Haner, meterologist with the Nationa Weather service said it best:  A BUILDING CONTINENTAL POLAR SURFACE HIGH OVER INTERIOR B.C. WILL PROMPT THE INITIATION OF COLD AND DRY FRASER (river) OUTFLOW.

Burr.

25(900x800) images (2,084,997 bytes)

The start of next week.

 Haner, meterologist from the National Weather Serviec said it best: "A BUILDING CONTINENTAL POLAR SURFACE HIGH OVER INTERIOR B.C. WILL PROMPT THE INITIATION OF COLD AND DRY FRASER (River) OUTFLOW.
MM5 850mb model for Monday.  Burr.
    25(900x800) images (2,084,997 bytes)

STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER

1/7/2011 Weather

24HR SNAPSHOT starting at NOON today

Water - .25 -.5  Snow - 3-6
Freezing levels - 4000' falling
Winds 5-15 W


General Discussion: Cooler air and tapering precipitation will follow the approaching cold front today. Hopefully we will get some nice snow before it all comes to and end tomorrow.

Long-term: The weekend will be cool with a chance of light snow showers lingering over the Cascade Crest. Sunday/Monday will by clear and cold. No significant storms on the horizon through most of next week.


TRENDS AND TIMING
Precipitation: Rain will slowly change over to snow through the day. Moderate snow showers will be possible with nice westerly flow. The precipitation will change to showers overnight and taper off through the day tomorrow.

Freezing levels: Freezing levels will drop to 4000’ this afternoon. Temperatures will continue to fall through the weekend with freezing levels reaching sea level by Sunday.

Winds: Strong westerly flow will continue along the ridge tops. Winds will taper tomorrow and swing NNE for the weekend.

January 6, 2011

Start Time Friday---8:00am

Looking for some signs of storm track organization.

Not a lot of organization out there for storm track to beable to take shape. 

59(800x800) images (5,822,248 bytes)
Not much in the jet either.

Animation of Jet Stream Forecasts

STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER

1/6/2011 Weather

24HR SNAPSHOT starting at NOON today

Water - .25-.5  Snow - 3-6
Freezing Levels -  4500'  dropping 4k
Winds 5-20 W  gusty

General Discussion: Today will remain rather soggy and mild. A cold front will bring snow and cooler temperatures tomorrow.

Long-term: Snow showers will begin to taper off tomorrow night with cooler temperatures and light snow showers lingering in the mountains for the weekend. Look for a return of the cold temperatures next week with lows in the single digits returning.


TRENDS AND TIMING
Precipitation: Light mixed rain and snow will continue through the night. The precipitation will change over to snow after 7am tomorrow morning. Tomorrow is looking rather snowy-could be pretty good day of riding.

Freezing levels: Freezing levels will hover about where they are now (4500’) through most of the night. Temperatures will begin to fall after the front passes through tomorrow morning.

Winds: Gusty ridge top westerly winds will continue. There is potential to get a strong, short lived, high wind event tomorrow as the front approaches the mountains.

January 5, 2011

Start Time Thursday---6:15am

STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER

1/5/2011 Weather

24HR SNAPSHOT starting at NOON today

Water - .75
Freezing Levels -  3000' rising to 5000'
Winds 5-20 WSW 


General Discussion: The incoming system slowed its approach a bit and nudged further north last night. Will there be all snow, snow rain mix or all rain? That is the big question.

Long-term: Long range models differ considerable beyond Friday. For now, its looks like a chance of light snow on Friday with cool dry air moving in for the weekend.


TRENDS AND TIMING
Precipitation: The precipitation will ramp up today and tonight. I am still not ruling out the possibility of rain in the base area tonight. If luck is with us, it will stay snow on the upper mountain. A Puget Sound Convergence Zone condition is possible tonight. This could enhance precipitation totals.

Freezing levels: The freezing temperatures will be right on the cusp for rain or rain snow mix for the next 24-36 hrs mainly below 4500’. Freezing levels will begin to fall back below pass level on Friday.

Winds: Strong westerly flow will be possible along the ridge tops. Surface winds don’t appear to be as strong. Westerly flow will continue for the remainder of the week.

January 4, 2011

Start Time Wednesday---8:00am

STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER

1/4/2011 Weather

24HR SNAPSHOT starting at NOON today

Water- .25 -.5  Snow 3-6
Freezing levels - 2000'  rising to 4500'
Winds -  5-15  WSW


General Discussion: A warm front approaching the coast will bring warmer air and moisture to the PNW tonight and tomorrow. Snow and rain with snow showers on the tail end of the storm will all be possible during the next few days.

Long-term: A cold front will arrive late Thursday night which will bring cooler air and tapering precipitation on Friday. The weekend looks dry as of now.


TRENDS AND TIMING
Precipitation: Snow is expected to develop after 4pm today. Snow will fall through the night and change to rain/snow mix below 5000’ and possible all rain at Pass level during the day tomorrow. With cool air still trapped in the eastern basin, snow amounts will depend on when, and at what elevation, the warm air mixes.

Freezing levels: The upper atmosphere will begin to warm up today as warm SW air overrides the cooler air to the east. Freezing levels will reach pass level mid day tomorrow and continue to rise to 5000’ through the day.

Winds: Winds will shift westerly and strengthen through the next 24hrs Strong ridge top winds will ramp up tomorrow evening.

January 1, 2011

8:00am Start Time for January 2nd,2011

Melt/Freeze cycle potential

See forecast below

STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER

1/1/2011 Weather

24HR SNAPSHOT starting at NOON today

Water - 0
Freezing levels - 500 rising 3000'
Winds -  0-10 W


General Discussion: A gorgeous day to bring in the New Year. Warmer air is coming. Watch the potential of a melt freeze cycle to begin with diurnal temperature development.

Long-term: Look for some potential changes starting on Wednesday.

TRENDS AND TIMING
Precipitation: Dry condition will continue through the weekend.

Freezing levels: We should have experienced our lowest temperatures this morning. Freezing levels will begin to rise today and possible reach 4000’ by Monday.  Cool early morning temps with warm day time temps (diurnal) will develop as the warm air moves in.

Winds: Light westerly flow aloft will develop today as a weak front brushes the coast. Easterly flow will most likely remain at the surface until the eastern basin begins to warm up in a few days.

8:00am Start for Friday 3/29/2024 No ABS

 Warm and dry weather is on the way.