November 30, 2011
November 29, 2011
High pressure building
High pressure builds in starting tomorrow. Temperature don't appear to be as warm as previously thought. With some luck the cool air over the interior north will help keep the melting potential low.
STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER
11/29/2011 Weather
General Discussion: A fast moving cold front will sweep across the PNW tonight bringing snow to the mountains.
Long-term: High pressure will begin to build over the PNW coast tomorrow. This will be the start of a dry weather pattern with seasonally average temperatures expected to last well into next week.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Tuesday
Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight= .15
“water by 4am= .10
24hr total “of water = .25
24hr Snow Total= 2-5”
Trend and Timing:
Snow will begin to fall this afternoon. The front is expected to move though fairly fast, so the snow will likely come to a quick end just after midnight. Clouds will begin to thin and clear out tomorrow.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 24 High: 30
Freezing level: +- 3000’ - 4000’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will fall to around 3000’ in the wake of the approaching cold front. Surface temperatures will climb above freezing tomorrow with the aid of the sun. Freezing levels are expected to climb to 5000’ on Thursday.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
5-10 W with gusts above 20 possible.
Trend and Timing:
Westerly flow will strengthen today in collaboration with the approaching front. Gusty frontal winds will be possible, but short lived. Winds will shift N then E as the front moves east of the mountains and the pressure begins to rise.
General Discussion: A fast moving cold front will sweep across the PNW tonight bringing snow to the mountains.
Long-term: High pressure will begin to build over the PNW coast tomorrow. This will be the start of a dry weather pattern with seasonally average temperatures expected to last well into next week.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Tuesday
Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight= .15
“water by 4am= .10
24hr total “of water = .25
24hr Snow Total= 2-5”
Trend and Timing:
Snow will begin to fall this afternoon. The front is expected to move though fairly fast, so the snow will likely come to a quick end just after midnight. Clouds will begin to thin and clear out tomorrow.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 24 High: 30
Freezing level: +- 3000’ - 4000’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will fall to around 3000’ in the wake of the approaching cold front. Surface temperatures will climb above freezing tomorrow with the aid of the sun. Freezing levels are expected to climb to 5000’ on Thursday.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
5-10 W with gusts above 20 possible.
Trend and Timing:
Westerly flow will strengthen today in collaboration with the approaching front. Gusty frontal winds will be possible, but short lived. Winds will shift N then E as the front moves east of the mountains and the pressure begins to rise.
STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER
11/29/2011 Weather
General Discussion: A fast moving cold front will sweep across the PNW tonight bringing snow to the mountains.
Long-term: High pressure will begin to build over the PNW coast tomorrow. This will be the start of a dry weather pattern with seasonally average temperatures expected to last well into next week.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Tuesday
Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight= .15
“water by 4am= .10
24hr total “of water = .25
24hr Snow Total= 2-5”
Trend and Timing:
Snow will begin to fall this afternoon. The front is expected to move though fairly fast, so the snow will likely come to a quick end just after midnight. Clouds will begin to thin and clear out tomorrow.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 24 High: 30
Freezing level: +- 3000’ - 4000’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will fall to around 3000’ in the wake of the approaching cold front. Surface temperatures will climb above freezing tomorrow with the aid of the sun. Freezing levels are expected to climb to 5000’ on Thursday.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
5-10 W with gusts above 20 possible.
Trend and Timing:
Westerly flow will strengthen today in collaboration with the approaching front. Gusty frontal winds will be possible, but short lived. Winds will shift N then E as the front moves east of the mountains and the pressure begins to rise.
General Discussion: A fast moving cold front will sweep across the PNW tonight bringing snow to the mountains.
Long-term: High pressure will begin to build over the PNW coast tomorrow. This will be the start of a dry weather pattern with seasonally average temperatures expected to last well into next week.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Tuesday
Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight= .15
“water by 4am= .10
24hr total “of water = .25
24hr Snow Total= 2-5”
Trend and Timing:
Snow will begin to fall this afternoon. The front is expected to move though fairly fast, so the snow will likely come to a quick end just after midnight. Clouds will begin to thin and clear out tomorrow.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 24 High: 30
Freezing level: +- 3000’ - 4000’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will fall to around 3000’ in the wake of the approaching cold front. Surface temperatures will climb above freezing tomorrow with the aid of the sun. Freezing levels are expected to climb to 5000’ on Thursday.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
5-10 W with gusts above 20 possible.
Trend and Timing:
Westerly flow will strengthen today in collaboration with the approaching front. Gusty frontal winds will be possible, but short lived. Winds will shift N then E as the front moves east of the mountains and the pressure begins to rise.
November 28, 2011
STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER
11/28/2011 Weather
General Discussion: Today and most of tomorrow will be dry and mild, might even get a peek at the sun.
Long-term: A weak low pressure system will slide down the BC coast late Tuesday. This will bring the possibility of some snow. High pressure is expected to build along the PNW coast on Wednesday; this will bring dry and warm weather for the remainder of the week and most likely through the weekend.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Monday
Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight= 0
“water by 4am=0
24hr total “of water = 0
24hr Snow Total= 0
Trend and Timing:
No moisture is expected until tomorrow afternoon or evening.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 28 High: 34
Freezing level: 3000’ 4500’
Trend and Timing:
Warm SW air will allow freezing levels to rise above Pass level today. Cooler air will accompany tomorrow afternoons system.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
0-5 SW
Trend and Timing:
Light SW flow will continue today.
General Discussion: Today and most of tomorrow will be dry and mild, might even get a peek at the sun.
Long-term: A weak low pressure system will slide down the BC coast late Tuesday. This will bring the possibility of some snow. High pressure is expected to build along the PNW coast on Wednesday; this will bring dry and warm weather for the remainder of the week and most likely through the weekend.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Monday
Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight= 0
“water by 4am=0
24hr total “of water = 0
24hr Snow Total= 0
Trend and Timing:
No moisture is expected until tomorrow afternoon or evening.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 28 High: 34
Freezing level: 3000’ 4500’
Trend and Timing:
Warm SW air will allow freezing levels to rise above Pass level today. Cooler air will accompany tomorrow afternoons system.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
0-5 SW
Trend and Timing:
Light SW flow will continue today.
November 27, 2011
The High Pressure Change
Models show a High pressure cell building off the PNW coast next week. This will shift the storm track well to the north and allow unseasonable warm temperatures to move in.
November 26, 2011
Tomorrow's Cold Front
Impressive leading edge to tomorrow''s cold front. Too bad it has such a SW fetch of moisture leading the way. We might get some snow towards the tail end of this storm. It depends on how the cooler air mixes with the moisture stream.
STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER
11/26/2011 Weather
General Discussion: The snow expected last night stalled just off of the BC coast, so it didn’t quite make it to the mountains, bummer. Today will be gray with light mixed rain and snow possible. Most of the moisture is just to our north. A warm front will bring warmer temperatures and rain to the Pass tomorrow.
Long-term: A cold front expected to move in tomorrow evening will bring and end to the precipitation and lower temperatures. The weather pattern will change Monday as the northern jet stream shifts north into Canada. This will bring mild temperatures and a prolonged dry period.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Saturday
Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight=.10
“water by 4am= .10
24hr total “of water = .25 -.5
24hr Snow Total= 0
Trend and Timing:
Light snow mixed with rain will be possible today. Rain will intensify tomorrow morning and continue through the day. The precipitation will turn to snow and then begin to taper off tomorrow night. Storm totals by midnight tomorrow will be around 1” of water.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 30 High: 40
Freezing level: 4000’ 7000’
Trend and Timing:
East flow will temporarily help hold surface temperature just below freezing for most of today. Freezing levels will rise to near 7000’ by midnight tonight. Freezing levels will then begin to slowly fall to Pass level during the day tomorrow.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
ESE 0-10
Trend and Timing:
Cool air trapped in the eastern basin will be pushed through the pass by southerly flow today. Southerly flow will shift SW then W tomorrow.
General Discussion: The snow expected last night stalled just off of the BC coast, so it didn’t quite make it to the mountains, bummer. Today will be gray with light mixed rain and snow possible. Most of the moisture is just to our north. A warm front will bring warmer temperatures and rain to the Pass tomorrow.
Long-term: A cold front expected to move in tomorrow evening will bring and end to the precipitation and lower temperatures. The weather pattern will change Monday as the northern jet stream shifts north into Canada. This will bring mild temperatures and a prolonged dry period.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Saturday
Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight=.10
“water by 4am= .10
24hr total “of water = .25 -.5
24hr Snow Total= 0
Trend and Timing:
Light snow mixed with rain will be possible today. Rain will intensify tomorrow morning and continue through the day. The precipitation will turn to snow and then begin to taper off tomorrow night. Storm totals by midnight tomorrow will be around 1” of water.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 30 High: 40
Freezing level: 4000’ 7000’
Trend and Timing:
East flow will temporarily help hold surface temperature just below freezing for most of today. Freezing levels will rise to near 7000’ by midnight tonight. Freezing levels will then begin to slowly fall to Pass level during the day tomorrow.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
ESE 0-10
Trend and Timing:
Cool air trapped in the eastern basin will be pushed through the pass by southerly flow today. Southerly flow will shift SW then W tomorrow.
November 25, 2011
Pattern change next week
The general flow pattern is expected to shift north next week. This will likely bring a prolong dry period to the PNW.
Model for next week. Notice the Isobars in Canada with High pressure forecasted to develop over the Western US.
Model for next week. Notice the Isobars in Canada with High pressure forecasted to develop over the Western US.
STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER
11/25/2011 Weather
General Discussion: The atmosphere is trying to stabilize itself which will change the snow to isolated showers this afternoon. Moderate snow showers will continue to be likely in the mountains tonight and tomorrow.
Long-term: The approaching warm front will raise freezing levels through the weekend with moderate rain likely on Sunday. Cooler temperatures and a developing drier weather pattern will bring us into December.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Friday
Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight=.25
“water by 4am= +.25
24hr total inches of water =.5
24hr Snow Total= 6-8
Trend and Timing:
Moderate bands of snow showers will continue to form over the Cascades through the night. Snow will change to light rain mid day tomorrow. Saturday night will be relatively dry with rain likely on Sunday.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 24 High: 36
Freezing level: 1000’ 6000’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels are expected to rise to Pass level early tomorrow morning and continue rising through the day. Freezing levels could peak near or above 7000’ late Saturday or early Sunday morning. Surface temperatures could climb into the mid 40’s.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
0-10 ESE
Trend and Timing:
Westerly flow will taper off today and briefly shift easterly tonight. SW flow will take over tomorrow and last through the weekend.
General Discussion: The atmosphere is trying to stabilize itself which will change the snow to isolated showers this afternoon. Moderate snow showers will continue to be likely in the mountains tonight and tomorrow.
Long-term: The approaching warm front will raise freezing levels through the weekend with moderate rain likely on Sunday. Cooler temperatures and a developing drier weather pattern will bring us into December.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Friday
Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight=.25
“water by 4am= +.25
24hr total inches of water =.5
24hr Snow Total= 6-8
Trend and Timing:
Moderate bands of snow showers will continue to form over the Cascades through the night. Snow will change to light rain mid day tomorrow. Saturday night will be relatively dry with rain likely on Sunday.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 24 High: 36
Freezing level: 1000’ 6000’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels are expected to rise to Pass level early tomorrow morning and continue rising through the day. Freezing levels could peak near or above 7000’ late Saturday or early Sunday morning. Surface temperatures could climb into the mid 40’s.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
0-10 ESE
Trend and Timing:
Westerly flow will taper off today and briefly shift easterly tonight. SW flow will take over tomorrow and last through the weekend.
November 24, 2011
STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER
11/24/2011 Weather
General Discussion: A nice NW storm will bring more snow to the mountains today with snow showers tomorrow.
Long-term: A strong SW front will bring warmer air and more moisture to the PNW over the weekend.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Thursday
24hr Precipitation totals
“Water: .75 -1 “Snow: 8-12
Timing:
“water by midnight- .5
“water by 4am- .75
Trend:
Snow will begin to fall around noon today and increase through the evening. Good westerly flow will enhance orographics tonight, which could increase snow totals a touch. Snow will decrease to showers during the early morning hours with just some light snow showers tomorrow.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 24 High: 30
Freezing level: 2500’ – 3500’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will remain below pass level through tomorrow. A minimal rise in temps will occur today as the front moves through. Cooler air will fill in from the NW tomorrow. Freezing levels could reach 2000’ or lower tomorrow.
Winds Speed/Direction
5-15 W gusty
Trend and Timing:
East flow will swing SW then W through the next 24 hrs. Gusty westerly winds will likely accompany the front. Due to moderate gradients and SW flow, strong sustained winds at Stevens are not likely. However, there are high wind advisories for the Puget Sound region.
General Discussion: A nice NW storm will bring more snow to the mountains today with snow showers tomorrow.
Long-term: A strong SW front will bring warmer air and more moisture to the PNW over the weekend.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Thursday
24hr Precipitation totals
“Water: .75 -1 “Snow: 8-12
Timing:
“water by midnight- .5
“water by 4am- .75
Trend:
Snow will begin to fall around noon today and increase through the evening. Good westerly flow will enhance orographics tonight, which could increase snow totals a touch. Snow will decrease to showers during the early morning hours with just some light snow showers tomorrow.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 24 High: 30
Freezing level: 2500’ – 3500’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will remain below pass level through tomorrow. A minimal rise in temps will occur today as the front moves through. Cooler air will fill in from the NW tomorrow. Freezing levels could reach 2000’ or lower tomorrow.
Winds Speed/Direction
5-15 W gusty
Trend and Timing:
East flow will swing SW then W through the next 24 hrs. Gusty westerly winds will likely accompany the front. Due to moderate gradients and SW flow, strong sustained winds at Stevens are not likely. However, there are high wind advisories for the Puget Sound region.
November 23, 2011
STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER
11/23/2011 Weather
General Discussion: A cold front passing over the Cascade Crest this morning will begin to cool things off, as well as, dry us out - a good time to catch a breather from the precipitation. The next front is expected to bring more snow to the mountains starting tomorrow afternoon and lasting through Friday.
Long-term: A passing high pressure ridge is expected to bring dry weather Friday night and Saturday. Strong SW flow is expected to bring high freezing levels on Sunday/Monday. The good news is, the moisture associated with the Pineapple express seems to be splitting, and thus at the moment, is not looking like a huge rain event. But, we will likely receive temperatures well above freezing.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Wednesday
24hr Precipitation totals
“Water: .25 “Snow: 2-4
Timing:
“water by midnight- .15
“water by 4am- .10
Trend:
The rain will turn to snow and then begin to taper off this afternoon. Light snow will persist through the night. Snow will return after 10am tomorrow.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 24 High: 32
Freezing level: 4500’ 3500’
Trend and Timing:
The timing was a little inaccurate with last night’s temperature spike – about 12hrs off. The passing cold front will begin to lower freezing levels today. The freezing level should remain at or just below 4000’ through tomorrow. Cooler temperatures are expected on Friday.
Winds Speed/Direction
0-10 W
Trend and Timing:
Light westerly flow will fill in behind today’s front. East flow will try to make a showing tomorrow morning before strong westerly flow accompanies the tomorrow’s front.
General Discussion: A cold front passing over the Cascade Crest this morning will begin to cool things off, as well as, dry us out - a good time to catch a breather from the precipitation. The next front is expected to bring more snow to the mountains starting tomorrow afternoon and lasting through Friday.
Long-term: A passing high pressure ridge is expected to bring dry weather Friday night and Saturday. Strong SW flow is expected to bring high freezing levels on Sunday/Monday. The good news is, the moisture associated with the Pineapple express seems to be splitting, and thus at the moment, is not looking like a huge rain event. But, we will likely receive temperatures well above freezing.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Wednesday
24hr Precipitation totals
“Water: .25 “Snow: 2-4
Timing:
“water by midnight- .15
“water by 4am- .10
Trend:
The rain will turn to snow and then begin to taper off this afternoon. Light snow will persist through the night. Snow will return after 10am tomorrow.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 24 High: 32
Freezing level: 4500’ 3500’
Trend and Timing:
The timing was a little inaccurate with last night’s temperature spike – about 12hrs off. The passing cold front will begin to lower freezing levels today. The freezing level should remain at or just below 4000’ through tomorrow. Cooler temperatures are expected on Friday.
Winds Speed/Direction
0-10 W
Trend and Timing:
Light westerly flow will fill in behind today’s front. East flow will try to make a showing tomorrow morning before strong westerly flow accompanies the tomorrow’s front.
Cold front on the coast
The cold front is just now moving on shore - once is passes over the mountains - snow levels should drop. With some luck we should get a few more inches of snow on top of the mush. Good base fixens'.
November 22, 2011
STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER
11/22/2011 Weather
General Discussion: The snow Gods fought well last night. This complex weather system will continue today with heavy snow and periods of mixed rain still possible.
Long-term: A strong active weather pattern will continue well into the holiday weekend with several more fronts gearing up to hit the PNW. As of now, Friday and Saturday looks dry with another storm on Sunday/Monday.
Note: I am playing around with some formatting to make things clearer– please let me know if you have questions or comments.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Tuesday
24hr Precipitation totals
“Water: 1-1.25 “Snow: 12-15
Timing:
“water by midnight -.5
“water by 4am- .75
Trend:
Heavy precipitation will continue through most of tomorrow. It will be possible to get a short period of mixed rain or all rain this evening, changing back to all snow tomorrow. There will be a short break in the action Wednesday night with more snow likely on Thursday.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 28 High: 34
Freezing level: 4500’ 4000’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels are currently holding steady around 4500’. Freezing levels will drop a bit this afternoon and spike back up to near 5000’ this evening. Temperatures will then fall below freezing tomorrow.
Winds Speed/Direction
5-10 SE
Trend and Timing:
Wind will be shifty as fronts move through. No significant winds are expected at the Pass through Wednesday. Westerly flow will develop tomorrow afternoon.
General Discussion: The snow Gods fought well last night. This complex weather system will continue today with heavy snow and periods of mixed rain still possible.
Long-term: A strong active weather pattern will continue well into the holiday weekend with several more fronts gearing up to hit the PNW. As of now, Friday and Saturday looks dry with another storm on Sunday/Monday.
Note: I am playing around with some formatting to make things clearer– please let me know if you have questions or comments.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Tuesday
24hr Precipitation totals
“Water: 1-1.25 “Snow: 12-15
Timing:
“water by midnight -.5
“water by 4am- .75
Trend:
Heavy precipitation will continue through most of tomorrow. It will be possible to get a short period of mixed rain or all rain this evening, changing back to all snow tomorrow. There will be a short break in the action Wednesday night with more snow likely on Thursday.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 28 High: 34
Freezing level: 4500’ 4000’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels are currently holding steady around 4500’. Freezing levels will drop a bit this afternoon and spike back up to near 5000’ this evening. Temperatures will then fall below freezing tomorrow.
Winds Speed/Direction
5-10 SE
Trend and Timing:
Wind will be shifty as fronts move through. No significant winds are expected at the Pass through Wednesday. Westerly flow will develop tomorrow afternoon.
November 21, 2011
STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER
11/21/2011 Weather
General Discussion: Today we will begin to feel the effects of a series of strong weather fronts preparing to hit the PNW. The real show won’t begin until tomorrow with heavy snow and rain expected.
Long-term: Another similar, but slightly cooler event, is expected on Thursday with heavy snow possible. The weekend’s system looks tropical with the famed “Pineapple express” taking shape.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Monday
Precipitation
“Water: .25-.5 by 4am. Total by noon = 1
“Of Snow: 2-4 by 4am. Total by noon 4-8
Trend and Timing:
Snow showers will lighten up this afternoon before the main front hits early tomorrow morning. Heavy mixed rain and snow below 5000’ is expected after 4am and will continue through the day. Periods of all rain are anticipated as the freezing levels fluctuate between 4500’ and 5500’.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 30 High: 36
Freezing level: 4000’ 5000’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will rise to 4000’ after 4pm today. Freezing levels will bounce between 4500’ and 5500’ with the passing of imbedded fronts. Freezing levels will hover in this range until mid day on Wednesday when they are expected to fall to 3000’.
Note: Freezing levels are not the same as snow levels. Depending on many factors, the snow level can be equal to, or as low as, a 1000’ below the freezing levels.
Winds Speed/Direction
15-20mph SSW
Trend and Timing:
East flow will eventually get eroded by strong southerly flow. There are 50-70mph winds slamming the Olympic today. We are usually sheltered by SW winds, but with winds speeds so high, it will be interesting to see what we get. In other words, head up on the potential wind.
General Discussion: Today we will begin to feel the effects of a series of strong weather fronts preparing to hit the PNW. The real show won’t begin until tomorrow with heavy snow and rain expected.
Long-term: Another similar, but slightly cooler event, is expected on Thursday with heavy snow possible. The weekend’s system looks tropical with the famed “Pineapple express” taking shape.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Monday
Precipitation
“Water: .25-.5 by 4am. Total by noon = 1
“Of Snow: 2-4 by 4am. Total by noon 4-8
Trend and Timing:
Snow showers will lighten up this afternoon before the main front hits early tomorrow morning. Heavy mixed rain and snow below 5000’ is expected after 4am and will continue through the day. Periods of all rain are anticipated as the freezing levels fluctuate between 4500’ and 5500’.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 30 High: 36
Freezing level: 4000’ 5000’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will rise to 4000’ after 4pm today. Freezing levels will bounce between 4500’ and 5500’ with the passing of imbedded fronts. Freezing levels will hover in this range until mid day on Wednesday when they are expected to fall to 3000’.
Note: Freezing levels are not the same as snow levels. Depending on many factors, the snow level can be equal to, or as low as, a 1000’ below the freezing levels.
Winds Speed/Direction
15-20mph SSW
Trend and Timing:
East flow will eventually get eroded by strong southerly flow. There are 50-70mph winds slamming the Olympic today. We are usually sheltered by SW winds, but with winds speeds so high, it will be interesting to see what we get. In other words, head up on the potential wind.
8:00am Start Time for Tuesday 22nd November
STORMS AH BREWIN. Hey I like that, Will start a micro brew, Stevens Pass Storm Aile.
Cold, Faceted, Shallow Snowpack with some warm crud on Tuesday should settle her down.
Cold, Faceted, Shallow Snowpack with some warm crud on Tuesday should settle her down.
November 20, 2011
Tripple Point
A tripple point is where a warm front, a cold front and a occluded front all rotate around a similar axis. Tripple point currently off the northern BC coast, heading our way.
STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER
11/20/2011 Weather
General Discussion: Today will be the calm before the storm. A series of strong frontal systems will begin to affect the PNW starting tomorrow with snow and rain likely.
Long-term: Late fall storms will continue to batter the Cascade Mountains through all of next week. The freezing levels will bounce above and below Pass level as these systems move through. Precipitation models are showing an impressive +5”of water by Thanksgiving.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Sunday
Precipitation
“Water: .10 by 4am. 24hr total by noon .25-.5
“Of Snow: 1-2 by 4am. 24hr total by noon 4-6
Trend and Timing:
Snow will begin to fall after 4am tomorrow morning. Mixed rain and snow below 4500/5000’. Heavy wet snow mixed with rain will be on the menu for Tuesday.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 16 High: 30
Freezing level: 500’ 3500’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels are expected to reach Pass level by tomorrow afternoon. East flow will help keep surface temperatures near or just below freezing. Freezing levels are expected to briefly reach 5000’ sometime late tomorrow night or early Tuesday morning. Freezing levels will fall below Pass level on Tuesday.
Winds Speed/Direction
0-5 E
Trend and Timing:
East flow will remain intact until mid-day tomorrow. The front will bring a period of strong SW winds.
General Discussion: Today will be the calm before the storm. A series of strong frontal systems will begin to affect the PNW starting tomorrow with snow and rain likely.
Long-term: Late fall storms will continue to batter the Cascade Mountains through all of next week. The freezing levels will bounce above and below Pass level as these systems move through. Precipitation models are showing an impressive +5”of water by Thanksgiving.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Sunday
Precipitation
“Water: .10 by 4am. 24hr total by noon .25-.5
“Of Snow: 1-2 by 4am. 24hr total by noon 4-6
Trend and Timing:
Snow will begin to fall after 4am tomorrow morning. Mixed rain and snow below 4500/5000’. Heavy wet snow mixed with rain will be on the menu for Tuesday.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 16 High: 30
Freezing level: 500’ 3500’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels are expected to reach Pass level by tomorrow afternoon. East flow will help keep surface temperatures near or just below freezing. Freezing levels are expected to briefly reach 5000’ sometime late tomorrow night or early Tuesday morning. Freezing levels will fall below Pass level on Tuesday.
Winds Speed/Direction
0-5 E
Trend and Timing:
East flow will remain intact until mid-day tomorrow. The front will bring a period of strong SW winds.
November 19, 2011
Impressive
Check on the beginning of Mondays Storm - NW Alaska - upper left of photo - significant vorticity curl with a long SW fetch of moisture entrained.
STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER
11/19/2011
General Discussion: The weekend is shaping up to be very nice for hanging out in the mountains.
Long-term: The next significant weather event is expected to hit the mountains early Monday morning. This will bring rising freezing levels, heavy precipitation and winds to the PNW for the Thanksgiving week.
It is still a bit too far out to be confident in the details of the approaching storm. But, as of now, the models suggest that we will get moderate to heavy snow on Monday with the snow changing to rain sometime late Monday night or early Tuesday morning -freezing levels rising to +5000’. A cold front is expected on Tuesday with another round of heavy snow. Early precipitation water equivalent storm totals are +3” by Thanksgiving day.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Saturday
Precipitation
“Water: lt.10 by 4am. 24hr total by noon= lt.10
“Of Snow: Trace by 4am. 24hr total by noon= trace
Trend and Timing:
Some light snow showers mixed with the sunshine will be possible today and tomorrow.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 16 High: 24
Freezing level: 500’ - 1000’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will dip below 1000’ today and tomorrow. Day time surface temperatures could push into the upper 20’s with the aid of the sun.
Winds Speed/Direction
0-5 E
Trend and Timing:
East flow will continue to move through the Pass until Monday. With some luck, the east flow will hold off the rain Gods for longer than the models are currently indicating.
General Discussion: The weekend is shaping up to be very nice for hanging out in the mountains.
Long-term: The next significant weather event is expected to hit the mountains early Monday morning. This will bring rising freezing levels, heavy precipitation and winds to the PNW for the Thanksgiving week.
It is still a bit too far out to be confident in the details of the approaching storm. But, as of now, the models suggest that we will get moderate to heavy snow on Monday with the snow changing to rain sometime late Monday night or early Tuesday morning -freezing levels rising to +5000’. A cold front is expected on Tuesday with another round of heavy snow. Early precipitation water equivalent storm totals are +3” by Thanksgiving day.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Saturday
Precipitation
“Water: lt.10 by 4am. 24hr total by noon= lt.10
“Of Snow: Trace by 4am. 24hr total by noon= trace
Trend and Timing:
Some light snow showers mixed with the sunshine will be possible today and tomorrow.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 16 High: 24
Freezing level: 500’ - 1000’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will dip below 1000’ today and tomorrow. Day time surface temperatures could push into the upper 20’s with the aid of the sun.
Winds Speed/Direction
0-5 E
Trend and Timing:
East flow will continue to move through the Pass until Monday. With some luck, the east flow will hold off the rain Gods for longer than the models are currently indicating.
November 18, 2011
STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER
11/18/2011 Weather
General Discussion: Thanks to cold temperatures and the Convergence Zone, we were able to get some nice snow. The weekend is shaping up nicely with sun breaks and passing snow showers to keep it interesting. Have a great, safe, opening weekend.
Long-term: A series of vigorous systems is expected to arrive early Monday morning. These systems will bring in plenty of moisture and warmer temperatures. We may have to deal with a little rain next week, but hopefully it will be confined to the coast.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Friday
Precipitation
“Water: .25 by 4am. 24hr total by noon= .25
“Of Snow: 1-3 by 4am. 24hr total by noon= 2-4
Trend and Timing:
Light snow showers will persist through the night and tomorrow. Sunday looks to be mostly dry.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 16 High: 24
Freezing level: 500-1500’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will remain unseasonable low through the weekend.
Winds Speed/Direction
0-5 W shifting E
Trend and Timing:
East flow will develop during the early morning hours. SW flow is then expected to begin on Sunday.
SNOW TALK:
Heads up - It is easy to find the ground. High winds scoured upper ridges so its isn't as deep as it looks. We had 10 - 12" with .6% water content. Low angle smooth terrain is where the early season goods are.
General Discussion: Thanks to cold temperatures and the Convergence Zone, we were able to get some nice snow. The weekend is shaping up nicely with sun breaks and passing snow showers to keep it interesting. Have a great, safe, opening weekend.
Long-term: A series of vigorous systems is expected to arrive early Monday morning. These systems will bring in plenty of moisture and warmer temperatures. We may have to deal with a little rain next week, but hopefully it will be confined to the coast.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Friday
Precipitation
“Water: .25 by 4am. 24hr total by noon= .25
“Of Snow: 1-3 by 4am. 24hr total by noon= 2-4
Trend and Timing:
Light snow showers will persist through the night and tomorrow. Sunday looks to be mostly dry.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 16 High: 24
Freezing level: 500-1500’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will remain unseasonable low through the weekend.
Winds Speed/Direction
0-5 W shifting E
Trend and Timing:
East flow will develop during the early morning hours. SW flow is then expected to begin on Sunday.
SNOW TALK:
Heads up - It is easy to find the ground. High winds scoured upper ridges so its isn't as deep as it looks. We had 10 - 12" with .6% water content. Low angle smooth terrain is where the early season goods are.
November 17, 2011
STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER
11/17/2011 Weather
General Discussion: A low pressure system, currently tracking down the southern BC coast, will begin to push the moisture south and bring and end to this storm after midnight tonight.
Long-term: There will be some spotty remnants snow showers circulating around the low on Friday and Saturday. The next system is expected to arrive sometime late Sunday/Monday with rising freezing levels and plenty of moisture to start out the week.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Thursday
Precipitation
“Water: .25-.5 by 4am. 24hr total by noon <.5
“Of Snow: 4-6 by 4am. 24hr total by noon = 4-6
Trend and Timing:
A small imbedded band of snow will pass through after 4pm. The snow begins to taper off after midnight.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 18 High: 26
Freezing level: 3000’ 1000’
Trend and Timing:
Cool air will settle over the region bringing lowering freezing levels and night time surface temperatures in the teens. Freezing levels could be as low as 500’ on Saturday.
Winds Speed/Direction
10-20 W tapering.
Trend and Timing:
This pesky westerly wind will finally begin to taper off tonight. Expect relatively light westerly flow tomorrow.
General Discussion: A low pressure system, currently tracking down the southern BC coast, will begin to push the moisture south and bring and end to this storm after midnight tonight.
Long-term: There will be some spotty remnants snow showers circulating around the low on Friday and Saturday. The next system is expected to arrive sometime late Sunday/Monday with rising freezing levels and plenty of moisture to start out the week.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Thursday
Precipitation
“Water: .25-.5 by 4am. 24hr total by noon <.5
“Of Snow: 4-6 by 4am. 24hr total by noon = 4-6
Trend and Timing:
A small imbedded band of snow will pass through after 4pm. The snow begins to taper off after midnight.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 18 High: 26
Freezing level: 3000’ 1000’
Trend and Timing:
Cool air will settle over the region bringing lowering freezing levels and night time surface temperatures in the teens. Freezing levels could be as low as 500’ on Saturday.
Winds Speed/Direction
10-20 W tapering.
Trend and Timing:
This pesky westerly wind will finally begin to taper off tonight. Expect relatively light westerly flow tomorrow.
November 16, 2011
Weather Geek Speak
Puget Sound Convergence Zone.
Most Cascade Mountain old timers (yes, Clay and Jack this means you) when they hear Puget Sound Convergence Zone they immediately think of huge snow in the mountains. Why? The Puget Sound Convergence Zone is a phenomenon that occurs over Puget Sound. It is formed when the large-scale air flow splits around the Olympic Mountains and then converges over Puget Sound. This zone generally occurs between north Seattle and Everett and can cause updrafts and convection, which leads to a narrow band of precipitation. The air, and its moisture, is then accelerated up the Hwy 2 corridor or up the I-90 corridor. Text book mountain orographics take over from there.
Which Pass gets the goods depends on how the prevailing winds hit the Olympics. If the surface winds (between sea level and 4-5000’) hit the Olympics directly from the west, the convergence zone will be over Everett. This sets up Stevens just perfectly. If the wind hits the Olympics from the NW then Snoqualmie gets the goods.
This approaching storm has good PS Convergent qualities to enhance mountain orographics at Stevens Pass. Look at the forecasted wind direction along the coast tonight. Being pushed directly out of the west by a cold front. - a good recipe for heavy snow. My only concern is the wind speed - the higher the wind speed the further east the higher accumulations. Mainly my house-not ready to start plowing just yet.
Most Cascade Mountain old timers (yes, Clay and Jack this means you) when they hear Puget Sound Convergence Zone they immediately think of huge snow in the mountains. Why? The Puget Sound Convergence Zone is a phenomenon that occurs over Puget Sound. It is formed when the large-scale air flow splits around the Olympic Mountains and then converges over Puget Sound. This zone generally occurs between north Seattle and Everett and can cause updrafts and convection, which leads to a narrow band of precipitation. The air, and its moisture, is then accelerated up the Hwy 2 corridor or up the I-90 corridor. Text book mountain orographics take over from there.
Which Pass gets the goods depends on how the prevailing winds hit the Olympics. If the surface winds (between sea level and 4-5000’) hit the Olympics directly from the west, the convergence zone will be over Everett. This sets up Stevens just perfectly. If the wind hits the Olympics from the NW then Snoqualmie gets the goods.
This approaching storm has good PS Convergent qualities to enhance mountain orographics at Stevens Pass. Look at the forecasted wind direction along the coast tonight. Being pushed directly out of the west by a cold front. - a good recipe for heavy snow. My only concern is the wind speed - the higher the wind speed the further east the higher accumulations. Mainly my house-not ready to start plowing just yet.
STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER
11/16/2011 Weather
General Discussion: A strong frontal system will descend on the PNW today bringing snow, rain, and wind, to Stevens. This storm will begin to break up late tomorrow with just scattered snow showers on Friday.
Long-term: Models are currently showing the next storm sliding south down the coast line over the weekend, and thus, it is not expected to make it to the mountains. This strong NW storm track is expected to continue pumping storms through the PNW throughout the Thanksgiving week.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Wednesday
Precipitation
“Water: .5-.75 by 4am. 24hr total by noon .75 -1
“Of Snow: 6-10 by 4am. 24hr total by noon 8-12
Trend and Timing:
Snow is just now entering the mountains. A short lived rain, snow/rain mix, below 4500’ is expected this evening. The upper mountain should get some nice coverage. Rain will shift back to snow after midnight and continue through tomorrow. PS convergence flow will enhance snow fall in the early morning hours.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 24 High: 34
Freezing level: 2500’ 4500’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing level will rise through the day reaching 4500’ this evening. Freezing levels will then rapidly fall after midnight. Freezing levels may drop below 2000’ by Friday.
Winds Speed/Direction
5-10 E shifting 15-20 W
Trend and Timing:
East flow will eventually be overtaken by WSW flow this evening. Strong westerly flow is expected after midnight. 15-20mph winds with strong gust (40+ ridge top) can be expected.
General Discussion: A strong frontal system will descend on the PNW today bringing snow, rain, and wind, to Stevens. This storm will begin to break up late tomorrow with just scattered snow showers on Friday.
Long-term: Models are currently showing the next storm sliding south down the coast line over the weekend, and thus, it is not expected to make it to the mountains. This strong NW storm track is expected to continue pumping storms through the PNW throughout the Thanksgiving week.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Wednesday
Precipitation
“Water: .5-.75 by 4am. 24hr total by noon .75 -1
“Of Snow: 6-10 by 4am. 24hr total by noon 8-12
Trend and Timing:
Snow is just now entering the mountains. A short lived rain, snow/rain mix, below 4500’ is expected this evening. The upper mountain should get some nice coverage. Rain will shift back to snow after midnight and continue through tomorrow. PS convergence flow will enhance snow fall in the early morning hours.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 24 High: 34
Freezing level: 2500’ 4500’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing level will rise through the day reaching 4500’ this evening. Freezing levels will then rapidly fall after midnight. Freezing levels may drop below 2000’ by Friday.
Winds Speed/Direction
5-10 E shifting 15-20 W
Trend and Timing:
East flow will eventually be overtaken by WSW flow this evening. Strong westerly flow is expected after midnight. 15-20mph winds with strong gust (40+ ridge top) can be expected.
November 15, 2011
An impressive storm a brewin'
Impressive vorticity values with this storm. Specific details tomorow.
November 14, 2011
The Shark Fin
A feature that I look for on temperature forecast model is what I call the "Shark Fin". No one that I know of but me, calls this feature this. On the Forecast model below, look where the white color meets the green - right where the number 132 is. There are actually 2 shark fin features on this model. One off the southern BC coast and one just entering the Aleutian Islands.
This air tempeature transition is the leading edge of a warm front followed by a cold front - it looks like a sharks fin to me. You can find this feature on the GFS 850mb 36k model as well.
This is an important feature to keep an eye on when watching freezing level spikes. How sharp the fin feature is, and how it stays in tact as it approaches, gives a good sense of how drastic a temperature spike will be.
This air tempeature transition is the leading edge of a warm front followed by a cold front - it looks like a sharks fin to me. You can find this feature on the GFS 850mb 36k model as well.
This is an important feature to keep an eye on when watching freezing level spikes. How sharp the fin feature is, and how it stays in tact as it approaches, gives a good sense of how drastic a temperature spike will be.
STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER
11/14/2011 Weather
General Discussion: An upper level high pressure ridge passing through the region will begin to break things up this afternoon. The rest of the day and tomorrow will be mostly dry with some sun. Enjoy.
Long-term: The NW storm track will continue to stay active through the next 4-10 days. Another strong system is expected to bring more moderate to heavy snow Wednesday- Friday.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Monday
Precipitation
“Water: lt.25 by 4am. 24hr total by noon =.25
“Of Snow: 1-2 by 4am. 24hr total by noon = 2
Trend and Timing:
With the exception of a few lingering snow showers, the precipitation will become very light tonight. Tomorrow will be mostly dry.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 22 High: 30
Freezing level: 4000’ 2000’
Trend and Timing:
Cool air will descend on the mountains today dropping temperatures into the low 20’s. Freezing levels will remain well below pass level through tomorrow.
Winds Speed/Direction
5-10mph W gusty
Trend and Timing:
These pesky westerly winds will begin to mellow out this evening. Light NW flow is expected tomorrow.
General Discussion: An upper level high pressure ridge passing through the region will begin to break things up this afternoon. The rest of the day and tomorrow will be mostly dry with some sun. Enjoy.
Long-term: The NW storm track will continue to stay active through the next 4-10 days. Another strong system is expected to bring more moderate to heavy snow Wednesday- Friday.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Monday
Precipitation
“Water: lt.25 by 4am. 24hr total by noon =.25
“Of Snow: 1-2 by 4am. 24hr total by noon = 2
Trend and Timing:
With the exception of a few lingering snow showers, the precipitation will become very light tonight. Tomorrow will be mostly dry.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 22 High: 30
Freezing level: 4000’ 2000’
Trend and Timing:
Cool air will descend on the mountains today dropping temperatures into the low 20’s. Freezing levels will remain well below pass level through tomorrow.
Winds Speed/Direction
5-10mph W gusty
Trend and Timing:
These pesky westerly winds will begin to mellow out this evening. Light NW flow is expected tomorrow.
November 13, 2011
STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER
Forget everything I said at this mornings Patrol Refresher.
11/13/2011 Weather
General Discussion: The Puget Sound Convergence Zone is currently well aimed at Stevens Pass. This will enhance snow fall for the rest of the day and tomorrow. Tuesday will be a dry day with the next storm expected to arrive on Wednesday.
Long-term: Another strong frontal system riding on the NW jet stream is expected to bring another round of heavy snow to the mountains on Wednesday/Thursday.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Sunday
Precipitation
“Water: .75 by 4am. 24hr total by noon = 1
“Of Snow: 8-10 by 4am. 24hr total by noon = 10-14
Trend and Timing:
Moderate mountain snow is expected to continue through tomorrow. Snow will begin to taper off tomorrow afternoon.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 24 High: 34
Freezing level: 4000’ 3000’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will hover near 4000’ though most of the night. Temps will fall tomorrow as cooler air filters in behind the approaching cold front.
Winds Speed/Direction
10-20 W
Trend and Timing:
Strong westerly flow will continue through noon tomorrow. Winds will begin to taper off tomorrow evening.
11/13/2011 Weather
General Discussion: The Puget Sound Convergence Zone is currently well aimed at Stevens Pass. This will enhance snow fall for the rest of the day and tomorrow. Tuesday will be a dry day with the next storm expected to arrive on Wednesday.
Long-term: Another strong frontal system riding on the NW jet stream is expected to bring another round of heavy snow to the mountains on Wednesday/Thursday.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Sunday
Precipitation
“Water: .75 by 4am. 24hr total by noon = 1
“Of Snow: 8-10 by 4am. 24hr total by noon = 10-14
Trend and Timing:
Moderate mountain snow is expected to continue through tomorrow. Snow will begin to taper off tomorrow afternoon.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 24 High: 34
Freezing level: 4000’ 3000’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will hover near 4000’ though most of the night. Temps will fall tomorrow as cooler air filters in behind the approaching cold front.
Winds Speed/Direction
10-20 W
Trend and Timing:
Strong westerly flow will continue through noon tomorrow. Winds will begin to taper off tomorrow evening.
November 11, 2011
NW flow
This 850mb models shows the NW flow (polar jet) tracking right over the PNW. Good for a nice late fall/winter storm cycle.
India Show
Great slide show last night on the ski trip in India - Stevens Pass patrollers do some incredible things. Congrats on a great expedition.
STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER
11/11/2011 Weather
General Discussion: A series of frontal systems from the Gulf of a Alaska will begin our first active winter weather pattern of the year.
Long-term: The NW jet stream centered over the PNW will keep the storm track active through most of next week.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Friday
Precipitation
“Water: .75 by 4am. 24hr total by noon .75
“of Snow: 4-6 by 4am. 24hr total by noon 6
Trend and Timing:
Expect mixed rain and snow changing to snow throughout the day. Snow will decrease overnight before the next front hits tomorrow afternoon. Snow totals by 4am Sunday are currently calculating out to be around 12-15”
Temperatures (F):
Low: 24 High: 34
Freezing level: 4500’ 2500’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will fall to 4500’ today and then continue descending through the night. Freezing levels are expected to bounce back up to near or slightly above pass level tomorrow and Sunday.
Winds Speed/Direction
10-20 W
Trend and Timing:
Strong westerly winds will accompany these fronts. Periods of 30-40mph gusts will be likely.
General Discussion: A series of frontal systems from the Gulf of a Alaska will begin our first active winter weather pattern of the year.
Long-term: The NW jet stream centered over the PNW will keep the storm track active through most of next week.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Friday
Precipitation
“Water: .75 by 4am. 24hr total by noon .75
“of Snow: 4-6 by 4am. 24hr total by noon 6
Trend and Timing:
Expect mixed rain and snow changing to snow throughout the day. Snow will decrease overnight before the next front hits tomorrow afternoon. Snow totals by 4am Sunday are currently calculating out to be around 12-15”
Temperatures (F):
Low: 24 High: 34
Freezing level: 4500’ 2500’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will fall to 4500’ today and then continue descending through the night. Freezing levels are expected to bounce back up to near or slightly above pass level tomorrow and Sunday.
Winds Speed/Direction
10-20 W
Trend and Timing:
Strong westerly winds will accompany these fronts. Periods of 30-40mph gusts will be likely.
November 9, 2011
STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER
11/9/2011 Weather
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Wednesday
Precipitation
“ Water: 0 by 4am 24hr total by noon = 0
“ of Snow: 0 by 4am 24hr total by noon = 0
Trend and Timing:
The rest of today and tomorrow will be dry with sun breaks. The next front with rain and snow will arrive on Friday.
Temperatures (F):
Low: 34 High: 45
Freezing level: 5000’-+6000’
Trend and Timing:
Warm air streaming in from the SW will push temperature up today. Freezing levels are expected to peak around 6500’ tomorrow. Temperatures will begin to fall late tomorrow night.
Winds Speed/Direction
0-5 E
Trend and Timing:
Light easterly flow will shift westerly tomorrow morning. Gusty westerly winds should be anticipated with the arriving fronts on Friday.
General Discussion: A few days of some amazing weather is starting to shape up. Enjoy the sun and warmth, because it is not going to last.
Long-term: The NW Jet stream is expected to take a run at the PNW starting on Friday. Significant mountain snow will be possible throughout the weekend. I will wait until tomorrow to get specifics on timing and amounts.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Wednesday
Precipitation
“ Water: 0 by 4am 24hr total by noon = 0
“ of Snow: 0 by 4am 24hr total by noon = 0
Trend and Timing:
The rest of today and tomorrow will be dry with sun breaks. The next front with rain and snow will arrive on Friday.
Temperatures (F):
Low: 34 High: 45
Freezing level: 5000’-+6000’
Trend and Timing:
Warm air streaming in from the SW will push temperature up today. Freezing levels are expected to peak around 6500’ tomorrow. Temperatures will begin to fall late tomorrow night.
Winds Speed/Direction
0-5 E
Trend and Timing:
Light easterly flow will shift westerly tomorrow morning. Gusty westerly winds should be anticipated with the arriving fronts on Friday.
General Discussion: A few days of some amazing weather is starting to shape up. Enjoy the sun and warmth, because it is not going to last.
Long-term: The NW Jet stream is expected to take a run at the PNW starting on Friday. Significant mountain snow will be possible throughout the weekend. I will wait until tomorrow to get specifics on timing and amounts.
Historical Alaskan storm
Check out Cliff Mass weather blog on the historical storm hitting Alaska:
http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/
http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/
November 8, 2011
STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER
11/8/2011 Weather
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Tuesday
Precipitation
“ Water: .10 by 4am 24hr total by noon .10
“ of Snow: trace by 4am 24hr total by noon 0
Trend and Timing:
Light rain with snow mixed above 4500’ will move through tomorrow. The remainder of the week will be dry.
Temperatures (F):
Low: 28 High: 34
Freezing level: 4000’ - 5000’
Trend and Timing:
Temperatures will rise today influenced by southerly flow. Freezing levels are expected to reach 6000’ or higher by Thursday morning. Mild temperatures will hang around for the remainder of the week.
Winds Speed/Direction
0-10 E
Trend and Timing:
Light east surface winds will stick around for the remainder of the week.
General Discussion: Southerly flow combined with rising pressure has brought us some fine weather today. Clouds will thicken this afternoon as a weak system prepares to move through the mountains tomorrow. The sun, with mild temperatures is anticipated on Thursday/Friday.
Long-term (4-6days): A NW jet stream is looking promising for the weekend. This is expected to drive cooler air and moisture into the PNW over the weekend. This will be our next best chance for any significant snow. Fingers crossed.
Looking further out: The November outlook from the Climate Prediction Center calls for below normal temperatures and above average precipitation in the PNW. A good sign.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Tuesday
Precipitation
“ Water: .10 by 4am 24hr total by noon .10
“ of Snow: trace by 4am 24hr total by noon 0
Trend and Timing:
Light rain with snow mixed above 4500’ will move through tomorrow. The remainder of the week will be dry.
Temperatures (F):
Low: 28 High: 34
Freezing level: 4000’ - 5000’
Trend and Timing:
Temperatures will rise today influenced by southerly flow. Freezing levels are expected to reach 6000’ or higher by Thursday morning. Mild temperatures will hang around for the remainder of the week.
Winds Speed/Direction
0-10 E
Trend and Timing:
Light east surface winds will stick around for the remainder of the week.
General Discussion: Southerly flow combined with rising pressure has brought us some fine weather today. Clouds will thicken this afternoon as a weak system prepares to move through the mountains tomorrow. The sun, with mild temperatures is anticipated on Thursday/Friday.
Long-term (4-6days): A NW jet stream is looking promising for the weekend. This is expected to drive cooler air and moisture into the PNW over the weekend. This will be our next best chance for any significant snow. Fingers crossed.
Looking further out: The November outlook from the Climate Prediction Center calls for below normal temperatures and above average precipitation in the PNW. A good sign.
November 7, 2011
STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER
11/7/2011 Weather
Precipitation
“ Water: lt .25 by 4am Total by noon=.25
“ of Snow: 1-2 by 4am Total by noon=1-2
Trend and Timing:
Light snow will begin to taper off tomorrow morning with Tuesday through Thursday looking mostly dry.
Temperatures (F):
Low: 26 High: 32
Freezing levels: 3000’ – 4000’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing level will rise to 4000’ by tomorrow. Freezing levels will continue to climb through the week, reaching 6000’ by Thursday.
General Discussion: With the exception of a few snow flurries making it to the mountains, high pressure, centered over the SE portion of the state will keep any significant precipitation confined to the NW portion of the state.
Long-term: A NW flow pattern may allow some cool wet weather to reach the mountains by the weekend.
JDM
Precipitation
“ Water: lt .25 by 4am Total by noon=.25
“ of Snow: 1-2 by 4am Total by noon=1-2
Trend and Timing:
Light snow will begin to taper off tomorrow morning with Tuesday through Thursday looking mostly dry.
Temperatures (F):
Low: 26 High: 32
Freezing levels: 3000’ – 4000’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing level will rise to 4000’ by tomorrow. Freezing levels will continue to climb through the week, reaching 6000’ by Thursday.
General Discussion: With the exception of a few snow flurries making it to the mountains, high pressure, centered over the SE portion of the state will keep any significant precipitation confined to the NW portion of the state.
Long-term: A NW flow pattern may allow some cool wet weather to reach the mountains by the weekend.
JDM
November 1, 2011
STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER
Hello,
I will begin my daily forecast regiment next week.
In the mean time. This NW flow pattern that we have been experiencing is expected to continue. However, there doesn’t seem to be much in the way of significant storms riding on the NW jet. We will continue to see passing systems producing a few inches of snow now and then - but no real producers yet . The temperature regime is trending on the cool side, which should keep freezing levels at or just below pass level. In other words – no major snow is expected for the next 6-10 days.
On the climate front. La Nina conditions strengthened during the month of Oct. Hence the cool NW flow pattern we are currently experiencing. The "girl" is expected to strengthen through the Fall/winter. Long range forecast are basically mirroring last year’s pattern. Early snow, less active late Dec/jan, snow Feb – April. All will be revealed in time.
John
I will begin my daily forecast regiment next week.
In the mean time. This NW flow pattern that we have been experiencing is expected to continue. However, there doesn’t seem to be much in the way of significant storms riding on the NW jet. We will continue to see passing systems producing a few inches of snow now and then - but no real producers yet . The temperature regime is trending on the cool side, which should keep freezing levels at or just below pass level. In other words – no major snow is expected for the next 6-10 days.
On the climate front. La Nina conditions strengthened during the month of Oct. Hence the cool NW flow pattern we are currently experiencing. The "girl" is expected to strengthen through the Fall/winter. Long range forecast are basically mirroring last year’s pattern. Early snow, less active late Dec/jan, snow Feb – April. All will be revealed in time.
John
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