January 31, 2012
STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER
1/31/2012 Weather
General Discussion: Radar shows a nice looking storm just about to arrive on the coast. The front will bring snow to the mountains tonight and tomorrow.
Long-term: High pressure is expected to lift north tomorrow afternoon, this will produce dry and clear weather for the remainder of the week.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Tuesday
Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight= .25
“of additional water by 4am= .25
24hr total “of water = .75-1
24hr Snow Total= 8-12
Trend and Timing:
Light snow will begin today and intensify overnight. Snow will turn to showers around noon tomorrow and then slowly taper off. Dry on Thursday and Friday.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 26 High: 32
Freezing level: 4000’ 3500’
Trend and Timing:
Surface temperatures will stay on the mild side but with freezing levels staying just below 4000’. Surface temps will fall tomorrow afternoon as cool air filters in from the north.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
5-10 SW
Trend and Timing:
Winds aloft (5K) will shift southerly today with the arrival of the front. Local orographics will bring easterly winds at the surface through the Pass. Winds will shift back to W and then N tomorrow afternoon.
General Discussion: Radar shows a nice looking storm just about to arrive on the coast. The front will bring snow to the mountains tonight and tomorrow.
Long-term: High pressure is expected to lift north tomorrow afternoon, this will produce dry and clear weather for the remainder of the week.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Tuesday
Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight= .25
“of additional water by 4am= .25
24hr total “of water = .75-1
24hr Snow Total= 8-12
Trend and Timing:
Light snow will begin today and intensify overnight. Snow will turn to showers around noon tomorrow and then slowly taper off. Dry on Thursday and Friday.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 26 High: 32
Freezing level: 4000’ 3500’
Trend and Timing:
Surface temperatures will stay on the mild side but with freezing levels staying just below 4000’. Surface temps will fall tomorrow afternoon as cool air filters in from the north.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
5-10 SW
Trend and Timing:
Winds aloft (5K) will shift southerly today with the arrival of the front. Local orographics will bring easterly winds at the surface through the Pass. Winds will shift back to W and then N tomorrow afternoon.
January 30, 2012
A Weather Short
The Convergence zone will keep some showers moving through the Pass today, but it doesn't have a ton of moisture for it bring with it. Temperatures will also stay on the mild side.
The next storm to watch (tripple point below) will hit late tomorrow night and or Wednesday - cooler temps and potential the for some good snow accumulation.
High pressure building off of the California Coast drifts north later this week. So that long fetch of moisture you can see below will most likely elongate, split and drive north into Canada. Therefore, models indate dry and clear weather by the end of the week. You might want to plan on being sick Thursday for the potential sunny powder day.
The next storm to watch (tripple point below) will hit late tomorrow night and or Wednesday - cooler temps and potential the for some good snow accumulation.
High pressure building off of the California Coast drifts north later this week. So that long fetch of moisture you can see below will most likely elongate, split and drive north into Canada. Therefore, models indate dry and clear weather by the end of the week. You might want to plan on being sick Thursday for the potential sunny powder day.
January 29, 2012
January 28, 2012
STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER
1/28/2012 Weather
General Discussion: A slow moving front will slide down the BC coast into Washington today with the main moisture event happening tomorrow. Unfortunately, there is warm air associated with this storm, so rain will be likely.
Long-term: Cool NW flow will allow some more systems to track towards the Cascades for the beginning of next week. Snow expected on Monday. The end of the week is looking dry for now.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Saturday
Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight= .25+
“of additional water by 4am=.10
24hr total “of water = .5-.75
24hr Snow Total= 2-4
Trend and Timing:
Light snow showers will continue today. Snow will change to rain tonight. Moderate to heavy rain expected tomorrow below 4500’ with mixed rain and snow on the upper mountain. Snow will return early Monday morning.
Storm totals from 4am tomorrow through 4am Monday morning could exceed 3” of water.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 24 High: 38
Freezing level: 3000’ 5000’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will rise today reaching 5000’ tonight. Temperatures will stay above freezing through tomorrow. Freezing levels will begin to fall back below Pass level late tomorrow night or early Monday morning.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
5-15 SW
Trend and Timing:
Gusty WSW winds will blow along the ridge tops with light westerly flow at the surface through this storm.
General Discussion: A slow moving front will slide down the BC coast into Washington today with the main moisture event happening tomorrow. Unfortunately, there is warm air associated with this storm, so rain will be likely.
Long-term: Cool NW flow will allow some more systems to track towards the Cascades for the beginning of next week. Snow expected on Monday. The end of the week is looking dry for now.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Saturday
Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight= .25+
“of additional water by 4am=.10
24hr total “of water = .5-.75
24hr Snow Total= 2-4
Trend and Timing:
Light snow showers will continue today. Snow will change to rain tonight. Moderate to heavy rain expected tomorrow below 4500’ with mixed rain and snow on the upper mountain. Snow will return early Monday morning.
Storm totals from 4am tomorrow through 4am Monday morning could exceed 3” of water.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 24 High: 38
Freezing level: 3000’ 5000’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will rise today reaching 5000’ tonight. Temperatures will stay above freezing through tomorrow. Freezing levels will begin to fall back below Pass level late tomorrow night or early Monday morning.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
5-15 SW
Trend and Timing:
Gusty WSW winds will blow along the ridge tops with light westerly flow at the surface through this storm.
January 27, 2012
STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER
1/27/2012 Weather
General Discussion: Gorgeous today with the sun shining on the mountains with all that fresh snow. This nice weather will continue today with snow expected to begin again tomorrow afternoon.
Long-term: The high pressure is expected to sag south late tomorrow which will open the door for more storms to slide in. The general temperature regime will be on the warm side for these next few storms so expect the possibility of some rain on Sunday/Monday.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Friday
Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight=0
“of additional water by 4am= <.10
24hr total “of water = <.10
24hr Snow Total= 0- 1
Trend and Timing:
Some very light snow showers will be possible tomorrow morning. Snow will begin to fall late tomorrow afternoon or evening with the main moisture event happening on Sunday.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 18 High: 30
Freezing level: 500’ 4000’
Trend and Timing:
Cold temperatures will hang around through tomorrow morning. Freezing levels are expected to rise to near Pass level tomorrow. Surface temps, with the aid of the sun, could be well above freezing tomorrow.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
0-5 WSW
Trend and Timing:
There will be nice break from the winds today as light WSW flow moves through the Pass.
General Discussion: Gorgeous today with the sun shining on the mountains with all that fresh snow. This nice weather will continue today with snow expected to begin again tomorrow afternoon.
Long-term: The high pressure is expected to sag south late tomorrow which will open the door for more storms to slide in. The general temperature regime will be on the warm side for these next few storms so expect the possibility of some rain on Sunday/Monday.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Friday
Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight=0
“of additional water by 4am= <.10
24hr total “of water = <.10
24hr Snow Total= 0- 1
Trend and Timing:
Some very light snow showers will be possible tomorrow morning. Snow will begin to fall late tomorrow afternoon or evening with the main moisture event happening on Sunday.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 18 High: 30
Freezing level: 500’ 4000’
Trend and Timing:
Cold temperatures will hang around through tomorrow morning. Freezing levels are expected to rise to near Pass level tomorrow. Surface temps, with the aid of the sun, could be well above freezing tomorrow.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
0-5 WSW
Trend and Timing:
There will be nice break from the winds today as light WSW flow moves through the Pass.
January 26, 2012
STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER
1/26/2012 Weather
General Discussion: Rising pressure has begun to break up the clouds and will bring an end to the snow later today. We might even get some well deserved sunshine.
Long-term: The high pressure will keep most of the precipitation north of the Pass through Saturday. Snow is expected to return on Sunday.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Thursday
Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight= .10
“of additional water by 4am= <.10
24hr total “of water = <.25
24hr Snow Total= 0-2
Trend and Timing:
The snow will taper off today with just some lingering snow showers hanging around the mountains. Tonight and tomorrow will be mostly dry.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 16 High: 24
Freezing level: 4000’ 500’
Trend and Timing:
Temperatures will fall today as cool air infiltrates from the north. Freezing levels will begin to creep up to near Pass level on Saturday.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
5-15 W
Trend and Timing:
Winds will mellow out through the day. Westerly flow is expected to stay intact through the weekend.
General Discussion: Rising pressure has begun to break up the clouds and will bring an end to the snow later today. We might even get some well deserved sunshine.
Long-term: The high pressure will keep most of the precipitation north of the Pass through Saturday. Snow is expected to return on Sunday.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Thursday
Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight= .10
“of additional water by 4am= <.10
24hr total “of water = <.25
24hr Snow Total= 0-2
Trend and Timing:
The snow will taper off today with just some lingering snow showers hanging around the mountains. Tonight and tomorrow will be mostly dry.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 16 High: 24
Freezing level: 4000’ 500’
Trend and Timing:
Temperatures will fall today as cool air infiltrates from the north. Freezing levels will begin to creep up to near Pass level on Saturday.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
5-15 W
Trend and Timing:
Winds will mellow out through the day. Westerly flow is expected to stay intact through the weekend.
January 25, 2012
Start Time Thursday---6:15am
My prediction for January was between 73 and 120" of snowfall. Hope we don't go over otherwise the oldest method of weather forecasting would be wrong.
Going to be excellent skiing tomorrow...not today.
Going to be excellent skiing tomorrow...not today.
SW Moisture Stream
Pretty impressive moisture stream. Usually this is a Pinaple Express/ huge rain event. But due to cool air streaming in from the NW and rising pressure gradients. It will be mostly snow and then eventually get cut it off sometime tomorrow.
STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER
1/25/2012 Weather
General Discussion: Snow will continue today. High pressure will begin to build tomorrow afternoon producing dry and clear weather for Friday and Saturday.
Long-term: Sunday will be the start of another active weather pattern for the PNW.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Wednesday
Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight= .5
“of additional water by 4am= .25+
24hr total “of water = .75 -1
24hr Snow Total= 8-12
Trend and Timing:
Snow will continue today and then turn to showers later tonight. Drier conditions will follow tomorrow through Saturday.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 20 High: 30
Freezing level: 4000’ 3000’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will slowly drop through the day and remain below Pass level for the remainder of the week.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
10-20 W gust to 40+ possible
Trend and Timing:
Winds will continue to be strong through the day. Winds will begin to taper and shift NW tomorrow.
General Discussion: Snow will continue today. High pressure will begin to build tomorrow afternoon producing dry and clear weather for Friday and Saturday.
Long-term: Sunday will be the start of another active weather pattern for the PNW.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Wednesday
Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight= .5
“of additional water by 4am= .25+
24hr total “of water = .75 -1
24hr Snow Total= 8-12
Trend and Timing:
Snow will continue today and then turn to showers later tonight. Drier conditions will follow tomorrow through Saturday.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 20 High: 30
Freezing level: 4000’ 3000’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will slowly drop through the day and remain below Pass level for the remainder of the week.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
10-20 W gust to 40+ possible
Trend and Timing:
Winds will continue to be strong through the day. Winds will begin to taper and shift NW tomorrow.
January 24, 2012
STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER
1/24/2012 Weather
General Discussion: Another sporty weather event is in motion. Two vigorous storms taking aim at the PNW will bring another round of heavy snow to the Pass for the next two days. The leading edge of the first front is just now hitting the coast with the next storm falling in line sometime tomorrow.
Long-term: Models are starting to come to an agreement with high pressure building in on Thursday, thus, we should see a dry finish to the week.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Tuesday
Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight= 1
“of additional water by 4am= .25
24hr total “of water = 1.25 – +1.5
24hr Snow Total= A boat load.
Trend and Timing:
Heavy snow is expected for the next 24-36hrs. A period of mixed rain and snow will be possible after 4pm today with the precipitation turning back to all snow through the night.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 24 High: 36
Freezing level: 3000’ 4500’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will spike up later this afternoon and then fall back down below Pass level overnight.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
0-5 E shifting WSW
Trend and Timing:
Easterly flow will give way to a strong westerly push once the front moves past the Cascade Crest later today. 20 -30mph WSW winds will be possible tonight and tomorrow.
General Discussion: Another sporty weather event is in motion. Two vigorous storms taking aim at the PNW will bring another round of heavy snow to the Pass for the next two days. The leading edge of the first front is just now hitting the coast with the next storm falling in line sometime tomorrow.
Long-term: Models are starting to come to an agreement with high pressure building in on Thursday, thus, we should see a dry finish to the week.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Tuesday
Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight= 1
“of additional water by 4am= .25
24hr total “of water = 1.25 – +1.5
24hr Snow Total= A boat load.
Trend and Timing:
Heavy snow is expected for the next 24-36hrs. A period of mixed rain and snow will be possible after 4pm today with the precipitation turning back to all snow through the night.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 24 High: 36
Freezing level: 3000’ 4500’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will spike up later this afternoon and then fall back down below Pass level overnight.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
0-5 E shifting WSW
Trend and Timing:
Easterly flow will give way to a strong westerly push once the front moves past the Cascade Crest later today. 20 -30mph WSW winds will be possible tonight and tomorrow.
January 23, 2012
STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER
1/23/2012 Weather
General Discussion: Better get your powder fix today because it is about to change. A strong warm front will arrive early tomorrow morning bringing heavy snow and a possibility of rain tomorrow afternoon.
Long-term: The rain will turn back to snow late tomorrow night with snow continuing on Wednesday. The madness will all come to an end on Thursday when high pressure brings clear and dry weather to the mountains. As of now, the weekend appears to be dry.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Monday
Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight= 0
“of additional water by 4am= .10
24hr total “of water = .5
24hr Snow Total= 4-6
Trend and Timing:
Today and most of the night will remain dry. Models have the next batch of moisture arriving around 4am tomorrow morning with moderate to heavy precipitation falling for the following 24hrs. The storm will start out as snow, possibly changing to rain tomorrow afternoon below 5000’, then switching back to snow throughout the night.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 16 High: 26
Freezing level: 2000’ 4000’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will slowly creep up over night. Cool easterly air will help keep surface temps below freezing for the start of the storm tomorrow morning. Freezing levels will spike up to 5000’ tomorrow afternoon and then fall back down below pass level by Wednesday morning.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
0-5 E
Trend and Timing:
Weak easterly flow will develop today. A strong westerly push will accompany tomorrow’s front. 20-40 mph WSW winds will be possible through the day tomorrow.
General Discussion: Better get your powder fix today because it is about to change. A strong warm front will arrive early tomorrow morning bringing heavy snow and a possibility of rain tomorrow afternoon.
Long-term: The rain will turn back to snow late tomorrow night with snow continuing on Wednesday. The madness will all come to an end on Thursday when high pressure brings clear and dry weather to the mountains. As of now, the weekend appears to be dry.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Monday
Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight= 0
“of additional water by 4am= .10
24hr total “of water = .5
24hr Snow Total= 4-6
Trend and Timing:
Today and most of the night will remain dry. Models have the next batch of moisture arriving around 4am tomorrow morning with moderate to heavy precipitation falling for the following 24hrs. The storm will start out as snow, possibly changing to rain tomorrow afternoon below 5000’, then switching back to snow throughout the night.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 16 High: 26
Freezing level: 2000’ 4000’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will slowly creep up over night. Cool easterly air will help keep surface temps below freezing for the start of the storm tomorrow morning. Freezing levels will spike up to 5000’ tomorrow afternoon and then fall back down below pass level by Wednesday morning.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
0-5 E
Trend and Timing:
Weak easterly flow will develop today. A strong westerly push will accompany tomorrow’s front. 20-40 mph WSW winds will be possible through the day tomorrow.
January 22, 2012
Start Time Monday---6:15am
Maybe some ridge tops in the mornin. Shear tests on the crust with 90" of snowfall show no energy in the pack and Quality shears of 2 and 3. Will test again in a week or so and see trend. Thanks Dan and Patty's class.
STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER
1/22/2012 Weather
General Discussion: A fast moving storm will bring another round of snow to the mountains today. Tomorrow will be another day in between storms with the next system arriving on Tuesday.
Long-term: Models disagree in what happens after Tuesday’s storm. Some have high pressure building for dry weather finishing out the week and others have another system tracking in on Friday. Either way a pattern change is in the works.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Sunday
Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight= .5-.75
“of additional water by 4am= <.10
24hr total “of water = .75
24hr Snow Total= 6-10
Trend and Timing:
Snow has begun in the mountains and should increase in intensity through the day. Snow will quickly taper off around midnight with tomorrow being mostly dry.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 20 High: 26
Freezing level: 2000’ 3000’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will rise a bit when westerly flow kicks in tonight. Surface temperature should stay well below freezing through tomorrow.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
5-15 E shifting W
Trend and Timing:
East flow will strengthen today and then quickly shift Westerly this evening.
General Discussion: A fast moving storm will bring another round of snow to the mountains today. Tomorrow will be another day in between storms with the next system arriving on Tuesday.
Long-term: Models disagree in what happens after Tuesday’s storm. Some have high pressure building for dry weather finishing out the week and others have another system tracking in on Friday. Either way a pattern change is in the works.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Sunday
Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight= .5-.75
“of additional water by 4am= <.10
24hr total “of water = .75
24hr Snow Total= 6-10
Trend and Timing:
Snow has begun in the mountains and should increase in intensity through the day. Snow will quickly taper off around midnight with tomorrow being mostly dry.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 20 High: 26
Freezing level: 2000’ 3000’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will rise a bit when westerly flow kicks in tonight. Surface temperature should stay well below freezing through tomorrow.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
5-15 E shifting W
Trend and Timing:
East flow will strengthen today and then quickly shift Westerly this evening.
January 21, 2012
What happened to last nights storm?
I mentioned in this mornings meeting that the approaching cold front stalled over the olympic mountains last night and then occluded. There were some questions on what occluded meant.
You may recall the "tripple point" that I posted prior to this storm hitting land fall. Once the storm hit land it stalled over Puget Sound and never really made it to the Cascades. The Olympics got the moisture - 5.3". While the storm was stalled overnight, warm air convection was able to invade from the SW.
An occluded front is formed during the process of cyclogenesis when a cold front overtakes a warm front. When this occurs, the warm air is separated (occluded). The point where the warm front and the occluded front meet is called the triple point.[1]
You may recall the "tripple point" that I posted prior to this storm hitting land fall. Once the storm hit land it stalled over Puget Sound and never really made it to the Cascades. The Olympics got the moisture - 5.3". While the storm was stalled overnight, warm air convection was able to invade from the SW.
An occluded front is formed during the process of cyclogenesis when a cold front overtakes a warm front. When this occurs, the warm air is separated (occluded). The point where the warm front and the occluded front meet is called the triple point.[1]
STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER
1/21/2012 Weather
General Discussion: Well our storm decided to wait until this morning to hit. Wind and snow will continue today. There will be a brief break in the action tonight with the next front expected to arrive tomorrow with similar results.
Long-term: Monday will be another “dry” interim day with the next storm arriving on Tuesday. Long Range models are starting to show a pattern change by the end of the week – trending dry with high pressure building off the PNW coast.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Saturday
Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight= .5
“of additional water by 4am= .10
24hr total “of water = .75
24hr Snow Total= 6-10
Trend and Timing:
The snow will slowly turn to showers tonight. Light snow showers will continue over night with the next batch of moderate to heavy snow arriving midday tomorrow.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 18 High: 28
Freezing level: 3500’ 2000’
Trend and Timing:
Surface temperatures will continue to fall through the next 24hrs. Freezing levels will hover around 2500’ though Monday.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
20-30+ W shifting E
Trend and Timing:
Winds will begin to taper off tonight and shift E early tomorrow morning.
General Discussion: Well our storm decided to wait until this morning to hit. Wind and snow will continue today. There will be a brief break in the action tonight with the next front expected to arrive tomorrow with similar results.
Long-term: Monday will be another “dry” interim day with the next storm arriving on Tuesday. Long Range models are starting to show a pattern change by the end of the week – trending dry with high pressure building off the PNW coast.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Saturday
Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight= .5
“of additional water by 4am= .10
24hr total “of water = .75
24hr Snow Total= 6-10
Trend and Timing:
The snow will slowly turn to showers tonight. Light snow showers will continue over night with the next batch of moderate to heavy snow arriving midday tomorrow.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 18 High: 28
Freezing level: 3500’ 2000’
Trend and Timing:
Surface temperatures will continue to fall through the next 24hrs. Freezing levels will hover around 2500’ though Monday.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
20-30+ W shifting E
Trend and Timing:
Winds will begin to taper off tonight and shift E early tomorrow morning.
January 20, 2012
STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER
1/20/2012 Weather
General Discussion: The first of two vigorous fronts is just now entering the mountains. Moderate to heavy snow is expected through tomorrow.
Long-term: Storms will keep battering the PNW through the middle of next week.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Friday
Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight=.5-.75
“of additional water by 4am= .5
24hr total “of water = 1.5-2
24hr Snow Total= 15-24”
Trend and Timing:
Snow will ramp up today. Once the front passes through late tonight, the Puget Sound Convergence Zone will kick in producing heavy snow through the night and most of tomorrow.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 24 High: 32
Freezing level: 4000’ 2500’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels should stay in our favor with the aid of the cool easterly air. Temperatures will fall overnight in the wake of the cold front.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
5-15 E - shifting W and becoming strong.
Trend and Timing:
East flow will strengthen today as the leading edge of the front approaches the mountains. Winds will shift westerly and become strong early tomorrow morning. Gusts 20-40 will be possible tomorrow.
General Discussion: The first of two vigorous fronts is just now entering the mountains. Moderate to heavy snow is expected through tomorrow.
Long-term: Storms will keep battering the PNW through the middle of next week.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Friday
Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight=.5-.75
“of additional water by 4am= .5
24hr total “of water = 1.5-2
24hr Snow Total= 15-24”
Trend and Timing:
Snow will ramp up today. Once the front passes through late tonight, the Puget Sound Convergence Zone will kick in producing heavy snow through the night and most of tomorrow.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 24 High: 32
Freezing level: 4000’ 2500’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels should stay in our favor with the aid of the cool easterly air. Temperatures will fall overnight in the wake of the cold front.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
5-15 E - shifting W and becoming strong.
Trend and Timing:
East flow will strengthen today as the leading edge of the front approaches the mountains. Winds will shift westerly and become strong early tomorrow morning. Gusts 20-40 will be possible tomorrow.
January 19, 2012
STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER
1/19/2012 Weather
General Discussion: It appears the storm nudge further north than anticipated – we’ll take it. Warm air is currently overriding from the SW which has created quite the inversion (36f top - 12f at the base) -a formula for freezing rain, so keep an eye out for that possibility.
Long-term: Two strong frontal systems will hit the PNW over the weekend. The first will hit tomorrow with the next expected to arrive sometime on Sunday. Both of these storms are packing a punch with lots of moisture, wind, and freezing levels spiking to +4000’. So there is potential to get a mixed bag of rain and snow and or heavy snow. Sporty!
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Thursday
Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight= .25
“of additional water by 4am= .25
24hr total “of water = .5
24hr Snow Total= 4-7
Trend and Timing:
The models have not been very accurate in the precipitation amounts, so confidence is low. With that said snow showers will lighten up through the day with just light snow falling through the night. The next strong frontal system will drive in during the day tomorrow bringing heavy snow and or mixed rain and snow to the Pass by Saturday morning.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 28 High: 36
Freezing level: 3500’-4500’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels are on the rise today and are expected to bounce between 3500’ and 4500’ through this next series of storms. How stubborn the east flow is will determine whether or not the surface temperatures stay at or below freezing.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
0-5 E base, 5-15 SSW @ 5000’
Trend and Timing:
Models indicate that light east flow will continue to move through the Pass. Let’s hope this rings true. SSW flow aloft will blow along the upper ridges.
General Discussion: It appears the storm nudge further north than anticipated – we’ll take it. Warm air is currently overriding from the SW which has created quite the inversion (36f top - 12f at the base) -a formula for freezing rain, so keep an eye out for that possibility.
Long-term: Two strong frontal systems will hit the PNW over the weekend. The first will hit tomorrow with the next expected to arrive sometime on Sunday. Both of these storms are packing a punch with lots of moisture, wind, and freezing levels spiking to +4000’. So there is potential to get a mixed bag of rain and snow and or heavy snow. Sporty!
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Thursday
Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight= .25
“of additional water by 4am= .25
24hr total “of water = .5
24hr Snow Total= 4-7
Trend and Timing:
The models have not been very accurate in the precipitation amounts, so confidence is low. With that said snow showers will lighten up through the day with just light snow falling through the night. The next strong frontal system will drive in during the day tomorrow bringing heavy snow and or mixed rain and snow to the Pass by Saturday morning.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 28 High: 36
Freezing level: 3500’-4500’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels are on the rise today and are expected to bounce between 3500’ and 4500’ through this next series of storms. How stubborn the east flow is will determine whether or not the surface temperatures stay at or below freezing.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
0-5 E base, 5-15 SSW @ 5000’
Trend and Timing:
Models indicate that light east flow will continue to move through the Pass. Let’s hope this rings true. SSW flow aloft will blow along the upper ridges.
January 18, 2012
8:00am Start Time for Thurs. Jan. 18, 2012
Great day! I know that the weather forecast has been downgraded, because the storm went south of us. However, this isn't as sad as it sounds, because that means that the temps. are going to stay colder in the north.. Hood is getting dumped on, but with a big warm up afterwards.
So far we totaled 33" inches in this little storm cycle. Pure Powder!!!
So far we totaled 33" inches in this little storm cycle. Pure Powder!!!
STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER
1/18/2012 Weather
General Discussion: Another great powder day. Snow will end this afternoon. Another system will lift from the south tomorrow but it is not expected to reach as far north as Stevens Pass. Thus, expect a dry interim period tomorrow – a good time to catch our breaths.
Long-term: The next front will arrive sometime early Friday morning with significant snow expected in the mountains for the weekend.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Wednesday
Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight= .25
“of additional water by 4am= <.10
24hr total “of water = .25+
24hr Snow Total= 2-4
Trend and Timing:
Upper atmosphere ridging will bring an end to the snow later today. Tonight and most of tomorrow will be mostly dry with light snow showers possible.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 12 High: 24
Freezing level: 1000’ 2500’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will slowly rise west of the crest through the night. East flow will keep surface temperatures well below freezing through tomorrow.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
5-15 E
Trend and Timing:
Gusty east winds will continue through the day. Sporadic winds shifts (E-W) will accompany the next fronts. No significant winds speeds are expected for the next 24-36hrs.
General Discussion: Another great powder day. Snow will end this afternoon. Another system will lift from the south tomorrow but it is not expected to reach as far north as Stevens Pass. Thus, expect a dry interim period tomorrow – a good time to catch our breaths.
Long-term: The next front will arrive sometime early Friday morning with significant snow expected in the mountains for the weekend.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Wednesday
Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight= .25
“of additional water by 4am= <.10
24hr total “of water = .25+
24hr Snow Total= 2-4
Trend and Timing:
Upper atmosphere ridging will bring an end to the snow later today. Tonight and most of tomorrow will be mostly dry with light snow showers possible.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 12 High: 24
Freezing level: 1000’ 2500’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will slowly rise west of the crest through the night. East flow will keep surface temperatures well below freezing through tomorrow.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
5-15 E
Trend and Timing:
Gusty east winds will continue through the day. Sporadic winds shifts (E-W) will accompany the next fronts. No significant winds speeds are expected for the next 24-36hrs.
January 17, 2012
6:15 Start Time for Wed. January 18th, 2012
It is now 1:15 and we have received over 10 inches since 4:30 this morning!!!
STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER
1/17/2012 Weather
General Discussion: It’s great to finally see a fat powder day. There will be a brief break in the action tonight before the next system arrives early tomorrow morning. The meat of the next storm is expected to track up the Columbia River Gorge, so it is likely that we will not get the brunt of the action. We will, however, get some nice spin off snow tomorrow non-the-less.
Long-term: The jet stream seems to be content driving potent storms through the PNW. Therefore, we should expect active winter weather to continue through the upcoming weekend. Freezing levels currently look to be in our favor for most of the precipitation to be in the form of snow.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Tuesday
Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight= .25 -.5
“ of additional water by 4am= <. 10
24hr total “of water = .5 -.75
24hr Snow Total= 6-10
Trend and Timing
Moderate snow will continue today and then briefly taper off this evening for a few quiet hours. Snow will ramp back up around 4am and continue through tomorrow.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 12 High: 22
Freezing level: 500’ – 1500’
Trend and Timing:
Cool air will continue to poor over the Cascade Crest thanks to the Fraser River Outflow. Warmer air from the SW is expected to raise freezing levels to near Pass level towards the end of the week. Our east flow friend will help keep surface tempers at or below freezing through this period.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
10-15 W tapering.
Trend and Timing:
Winds will begin to mellow out this afternoon and then switch to easterly over night.
General Discussion: It’s great to finally see a fat powder day. There will be a brief break in the action tonight before the next system arrives early tomorrow morning. The meat of the next storm is expected to track up the Columbia River Gorge, so it is likely that we will not get the brunt of the action. We will, however, get some nice spin off snow tomorrow non-the-less.
Long-term: The jet stream seems to be content driving potent storms through the PNW. Therefore, we should expect active winter weather to continue through the upcoming weekend. Freezing levels currently look to be in our favor for most of the precipitation to be in the form of snow.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Tuesday
Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight= .25 -.5
“ of additional water by 4am= <. 10
24hr total “of water = .5 -.75
24hr Snow Total= 6-10
Trend and Timing
Moderate snow will continue today and then briefly taper off this evening for a few quiet hours. Snow will ramp back up around 4am and continue through tomorrow.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 12 High: 22
Freezing level: 500’ – 1500’
Trend and Timing:
Cool air will continue to poor over the Cascade Crest thanks to the Fraser River Outflow. Warmer air from the SW is expected to raise freezing levels to near Pass level towards the end of the week. Our east flow friend will help keep surface tempers at or below freezing through this period.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
10-15 W tapering.
Trend and Timing:
Winds will begin to mellow out this afternoon and then switch to easterly over night.
January 16, 2012
The >
Wow. Check it out - cold air and moisture from the north mixing with moisture from the south. > poised to slam the PNW.
STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER
1/16/2012 Weather
General Discussion: Oh sure, I leave for a few days in search of high mountain powder and what happens – the goods are right here at home. A cold front dropping in from the north will bring snow and cool NW flow to the mountains today.
Long-term: The jet stream has finally decided to make a run at the PNW. This will keep the storms aimed our way for the rest of the week.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Monday
Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight= .25 - .5
“ of additional water by 4am= .25
24hr total “of water = .5-.75
24hr Snow Total= 6-10
Trend and Timing:
The snow will continue through noon tomorrow. The convergence stream will fluctuate between Stevens Pass and Snoqualmie Pass. A brief break is expected tomorrow night with a strong warm front bringing heavier precipitation to the mountains early Wednesday morning.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 12 High: 24
Freezing level: 500’ - 1000’ steady
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will remain well below pass level through tomorrow. Warmer air will try and force its way north late Wednesday, this could bring freezing levels up to near 4000/4500’ to finish the week.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
5-15 WSW
Trend and Timing:
Westerly flow will continue to push through the Pass for the next 24hrs. East flow will develop late tomorrow night.
General Discussion: Oh sure, I leave for a few days in search of high mountain powder and what happens – the goods are right here at home. A cold front dropping in from the north will bring snow and cool NW flow to the mountains today.
Long-term: The jet stream has finally decided to make a run at the PNW. This will keep the storms aimed our way for the rest of the week.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Monday
Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight= .25 - .5
“ of additional water by 4am= .25
24hr total “of water = .5-.75
24hr Snow Total= 6-10
Trend and Timing:
The snow will continue through noon tomorrow. The convergence stream will fluctuate between Stevens Pass and Snoqualmie Pass. A brief break is expected tomorrow night with a strong warm front bringing heavier precipitation to the mountains early Wednesday morning.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 12 High: 24
Freezing level: 500’ - 1000’ steady
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will remain well below pass level through tomorrow. Warmer air will try and force its way north late Wednesday, this could bring freezing levels up to near 4000/4500’ to finish the week.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
5-15 WSW
Trend and Timing:
Westerly flow will continue to push through the Pass for the next 24hrs. East flow will develop late tomorrow night.
January 15, 2012
January 14, 2012
January 13, 2012
January 12, 2012
Start Time Friday---8am
Notice the invertion today? Its true. Bring your lawn chair and bask in the heat wave at the top of 1.
January 11, 2012
January 10, 2012
January 9, 2012
January 8, 2012
January 7, 2012
Weather Subbatical
I will be off ski touring next week and unable to produce weather forecasts. I will be back at it starting on January 17th.
You can check these sites for other weather forecasts:
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/data/disc_report.html
or
http://www.nwac.us/forecast/weather/current/
You can check these sites for other weather forecasts:
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/data/disc_report.html
or
http://www.nwac.us/forecast/weather/current/
STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER
1/7/2012 Weather
General Discussion: A little light snow will be possible today as a weak system passes to our north. South westerly flow riding along the western slope of a high pressure ridge will bring warm and dry weather for the remainder of the weekend.
Long-term: Mixed rain and snow is expected on Monday with the rest of the week trending dry and clear under building high pressure.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Saturday
Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight= .10
“water by 4am=0
24hr total “of water = .10
24hr Snow Total= Trace
Trend and Timing:
A band of moisture tracking just to the north of Stevens Pass will bring a chance of some light snow today. The rest of the weekend will be dry.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 24 High: 36
Freezing level: 3000’ 5000’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will reach Pass level sometime this evening. Freezing levels will continue to rise through the night reaching 5000’ tomorrow.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
0-10 WSW
Trend and Timing:
Light WSW surface winds will continue through the weekend. Winds will be more westerly and a touch higher along the ridge tops.
General Discussion: A little light snow will be possible today as a weak system passes to our north. South westerly flow riding along the western slope of a high pressure ridge will bring warm and dry weather for the remainder of the weekend.
Long-term: Mixed rain and snow is expected on Monday with the rest of the week trending dry and clear under building high pressure.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Saturday
Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight= .10
“water by 4am=0
24hr total “of water = .10
24hr Snow Total= Trace
Trend and Timing:
A band of moisture tracking just to the north of Stevens Pass will bring a chance of some light snow today. The rest of the weekend will be dry.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 24 High: 36
Freezing level: 3000’ 5000’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will reach Pass level sometime this evening. Freezing levels will continue to rise through the night reaching 5000’ tomorrow.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
0-10 WSW
Trend and Timing:
Light WSW surface winds will continue through the weekend. Winds will be more westerly and a touch higher along the ridge tops.
January 6, 2012
STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER
1/6/2012 Weather
General Discussion: A high pressure ridge building over the mountains will confine the moisture to the coast today. We may see a weak snow shower or two but no accumulation is expected through the weekend. Warm SW air will also bring warm temperatures to the Pass for the weekend.
Long-term: A cold front will drop in Monday bringing snow to the mountains. After Monday, high pressure is expected to bring dry weather to the PNW for most of next week.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Friday
Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight= <.10
“water by 4am=0
24hr total “of water = <.10
24hr Snow Total= 0
Trend and Timing:
With the exception of a few light snow showers, the mountains will remain dry through the weekend.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 22 High: 26
Freezing level: 2000 4000’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will hold steady through the night. Tomorrow freezing levels will begin to rise under SW flow aloft. 5-6000’ freezing levels will finish out the weekend.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
0-10 W
Trend and Timing:
Light WSW flow will continue through the weekend.
General Discussion: A high pressure ridge building over the mountains will confine the moisture to the coast today. We may see a weak snow shower or two but no accumulation is expected through the weekend. Warm SW air will also bring warm temperatures to the Pass for the weekend.
Long-term: A cold front will drop in Monday bringing snow to the mountains. After Monday, high pressure is expected to bring dry weather to the PNW for most of next week.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Friday
Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight= <.10
“water by 4am=0
24hr total “of water = <.10
24hr Snow Total= 0
Trend and Timing:
With the exception of a few light snow showers, the mountains will remain dry through the weekend.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 22 High: 26
Freezing level: 2000 4000’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will hold steady through the night. Tomorrow freezing levels will begin to rise under SW flow aloft. 5-6000’ freezing levels will finish out the weekend.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
0-10 W
Trend and Timing:
Light WSW flow will continue through the weekend.
January 5, 2012
STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER
1/5/2012 Weather
General Discussion: Moderate snow showers will continue today under cool north westerly flow. The models have had a hard time nailing down the small disturbances imbedded in this mini storm cycle. The cut off low mentioned yesterday, is now expected to slide to the south into Oregon – thus, we should see a relatively dry day tomorrow.
Long-term: Models now have most of the moisture nudged to the north of Stevens Pass for the weekend. We may get some spin off snow showers from time to time but no significant snow accumulation is expected after today. Another SW warm air event will once again raise freezing levels above Pass level on Sunday / Monday.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Thursday
Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight= .5
“water by 4am= .10
24hr total “of water = .5 +
24hr Snow Total= 4-6
Trend and Timing:
The Puget Sound Convergence machine will keep moderate snow showers falling in the Cascades until late tonight. Upper level ridging will build after midnight which will quickly bring and end to the precipitation.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 22 High:26
Freezing level: +-2000’ steady
Trend and Timing:
Temperatures will cool off nicely today with freezing levels sinking to around 2000’. Freezing levels should stay low through Saturday.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
5-15 W gust 20+
Trend and Timing:
Expect steady westerlies to continue through the day. Winds will weaken and shift NW overnight.
General Discussion: Moderate snow showers will continue today under cool north westerly flow. The models have had a hard time nailing down the small disturbances imbedded in this mini storm cycle. The cut off low mentioned yesterday, is now expected to slide to the south into Oregon – thus, we should see a relatively dry day tomorrow.
Long-term: Models now have most of the moisture nudged to the north of Stevens Pass for the weekend. We may get some spin off snow showers from time to time but no significant snow accumulation is expected after today. Another SW warm air event will once again raise freezing levels above Pass level on Sunday / Monday.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Thursday
Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight= .5
“water by 4am= .10
24hr total “of water = .5 +
24hr Snow Total= 4-6
Trend and Timing:
The Puget Sound Convergence machine will keep moderate snow showers falling in the Cascades until late tonight. Upper level ridging will build after midnight which will quickly bring and end to the precipitation.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 22 High:26
Freezing level: +-2000’ steady
Trend and Timing:
Temperatures will cool off nicely today with freezing levels sinking to around 2000’. Freezing levels should stay low through Saturday.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
5-15 W gust 20+
Trend and Timing:
Expect steady westerlies to continue through the day. Winds will weaken and shift NW overnight.
January 4, 2012
New Jet Stream Model
Posted a new Jet Stream Model in the Model Links
Jet Steam Model (color) -http://www.weatherimages.org/data/imag192.html
Nice stratus layer
A fast moving stratus layer being pushed by the approaching front. 60mph winds battering the coast this morning.
STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER
1/4/2012 Weather
General Discussion: This morning’s radar shows a band of moisture just now entering the mountains. Rain will be likely at Pass level. A cold front sweeping across the region later today will change the rain to snow tonight.
Long-term: Snow will taper off late tomorrow night with Friday morning being mostly dry. A cut-off low has formed and should bring more snow our way Friday night. Anticipate dry and warmer weather on the weekend as high pressure begins to build on Saturday.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Wednesday
Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight= .5
“water by 4am= .25
24hr total “of water = .75 -1
24hr Snow Total= 4-8
Trend and Timing:
Rain in the base area with mixed rain and snow on the upper mountain will begin sometime later this morning. Rain will slowly turn to snow through the night. Convergence conditions will keep light to moderate snow going tomorrow with snow tapering off late in the evening.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 22 High: 40
Freezing level: 7500’
Trend and Timing:
Surface temperature could touch 40f today before they begin to drop in the wake of the cold front. Freezing levels are expected to drop below pass level late this evening (+-10pm – 12am). Freezing are expected to reach 2000’ or lower by tomorrow evening.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
5-10 SW shifting 10-20W
Trend and Timing:
Winds will shift SW to W through the night. Strong westerly winds will follow the front so expected some gusty periods.
General Discussion: This morning’s radar shows a band of moisture just now entering the mountains. Rain will be likely at Pass level. A cold front sweeping across the region later today will change the rain to snow tonight.
Long-term: Snow will taper off late tomorrow night with Friday morning being mostly dry. A cut-off low has formed and should bring more snow our way Friday night. Anticipate dry and warmer weather on the weekend as high pressure begins to build on Saturday.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Wednesday
Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight= .5
“water by 4am= .25
24hr total “of water = .75 -1
24hr Snow Total= 4-8
Trend and Timing:
Rain in the base area with mixed rain and snow on the upper mountain will begin sometime later this morning. Rain will slowly turn to snow through the night. Convergence conditions will keep light to moderate snow going tomorrow with snow tapering off late in the evening.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 22 High: 40
Freezing level: 7500’
Trend and Timing:
Surface temperature could touch 40f today before they begin to drop in the wake of the cold front. Freezing levels are expected to drop below pass level late this evening (+-10pm – 12am). Freezing are expected to reach 2000’ or lower by tomorrow evening.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
5-10 SW shifting 10-20W
Trend and Timing:
Winds will shift SW to W through the night. Strong westerly winds will follow the front so expected some gusty periods.
January 3, 2012
STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER
1/3/2012 Weather
General Discussion: A large low pressure system spinning in the Gulf of Alaska will pull warm air from the south today. Most of the moisture is tracking across the North Cascades, so Stevens Pass should remain dry through mid-day tomorrow. Rain is expected tomorrow afternoon/evening.
Long-term: A cold front will change the rain to snow sometime tomorrow evening or early Thursday morning. Light snow is expected to fall through most of the day on Thursday with Friday and the weekend look dry for now.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Tuesday
Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight= <.10
“water by 4am=0
24hr total “of water = <.10
24hr Snow Total = 0
Trend and Timing:
Most of the moisture is tracking across the North Cascades, so expect the next 24hr to be relatively dry. Rain will develop tomorrow afternoon and slowly change to snow through the night.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 34 High: 44
Freezing level: 4000’ 8000’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will rise to near 8000’ by midnight tonight. Warm surface temperature will stick through most of the day tomorrow. Freezing levels are expected to drop back below pass level late tomorrow night.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
0-5 SE, 5-10 S ridge top
Trend and Timing:
Light southerly ridge top winds, which will be easterly at the surface, will persist through most of tomorrow.
General Discussion: A large low pressure system spinning in the Gulf of Alaska will pull warm air from the south today. Most of the moisture is tracking across the North Cascades, so Stevens Pass should remain dry through mid-day tomorrow. Rain is expected tomorrow afternoon/evening.
Long-term: A cold front will change the rain to snow sometime tomorrow evening or early Thursday morning. Light snow is expected to fall through most of the day on Thursday with Friday and the weekend look dry for now.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Tuesday
Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight= <.10
“water by 4am=0
24hr total “of water = <.10
24hr Snow Total = 0
Trend and Timing:
Most of the moisture is tracking across the North Cascades, so expect the next 24hr to be relatively dry. Rain will develop tomorrow afternoon and slowly change to snow through the night.
Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 34 High: 44
Freezing level: 4000’ 8000’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will rise to near 8000’ by midnight tonight. Warm surface temperature will stick through most of the day tomorrow. Freezing levels are expected to drop back below pass level late tomorrow night.
Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
0-5 SE, 5-10 S ridge top
Trend and Timing:
Light southerly ridge top winds, which will be easterly at the surface, will persist through most of tomorrow.
January 2, 2012
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