MOUNTAIN WEATHER

If you want snow you will have to go to Virgina.

A long fetch of warm moisture continues to flow into the PNW. There will be a short break in the rain on Thursday and Friday with another system gearing up for the weekend.

Still not as bad as New England.  Some impressive stats from Super Storm Sandy.



HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS BY STATE:
Andrews AFB, Md.: 15.3"
Easton, Md.: 12.55"
Wildwood Crest, N.J.: 11.67"
Virginia Beach, Va.: 9.57"
Milford, Del.: 9.55"
Maysville, W.Va.: 7.75"
Hanover, Pa.: 7.61"
Washington, D.C.: 5.44"
Lorain, Ohio: 4.29"
East Milton, Mass.: 3.03"
Jaffrey, N.H.: 3.83"
Niagara Falls, N.Y.: 3.02"

HIGHEST WIND GUSTS BY STATE (>74 mph):
Eatons Neck, N.Y.: 94 mph
Montclair, N.J.: 88 mph
Westerly, R.I.: 86 mph
Madison, Conn.: 85 mph
Cuttyhunk, Mass.: 83 mph
Allentown, Pa.: 81 mph
Highland Beach, Md.: 79 mph
Chester Gap, Va.: 79 mph

HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS BY STATE:
Redhouse, Md.: 26"
Bowden, W.Va.: 24"
Champion, Pa.: 13"
Newfound Gap, N.C.: 22"
Wise, Va.: 24"
Mt. Leconte, Tenn.: 20"
Payne Gap, Ky.: 14"
Bellefontaine, Ohio: 3.5"

TOP WAVES:
39.67 feet (Buoy #41048)


TOP STORM SURGES:

The Battery, N.Y.: ~9 feet above normal
Kings Point, N.Y.: ~12.5 feet above normal
New Haven, Conn.: ~9 feet above normal

RECORD LOWEST PRESSURE (ON LAND):
Atlantic City, N.J.: 948.3 mb (28.00" Hg)
Philadelphia, Pa.: 953mb (28.23" Hg)
Harrisburg, Pa.: 963mb (28.46" Hg)
Scranton, Pa.: 971mb (28.69" Hg)
Trenton, N.J.: 958mb (28.31" Hg)
Baltimore, Md.: 965mb (28.49" Hg)
Harrisburg, Pa.: 964mb (28.46" Hb)

MOUNTAIN WEATHER

The week will start out warm and wet under south west flow. Weak high pressure begins to build on thursday for a dryer finish to the week.
Hurricane Sandy is not disappointing. Check it out.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/atlantic/sandy-2012

The Perfect Storm Watch

Hurricane Sandy, expected to hit the New England coast tomorrow.   Hurricane Sandy is growing destructive, historic and very life threatening.  

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

RAIN WATCH.

.76” of water brought about 4-6” of snow to Stevens Pass during the last 24hrs. Most of the snow will likely liquefy as freezing levels rise in the wake of the approaching warm front.


A well organized triple point frontal system (below) will spin up from the south bringing rising freezing levels and periods of heavy rain through the middle of next week. Freezing levels will rise above 6000’ today and stay high through most of next week.

At the moment, the end of the week looks dry and warm. There is an intriguing system brewing in the Gulf of Alaska that is worth keeping and eye on as it develops.

SW Triple point (warm -red, cold-blue, occluded-pink)


Warm SW fetch of warm air.  

The Perfect Storm

Warm and wet in the Pacific Northwest – blah, blah, blah.

The real excitement is happening a bit east of here. All eyes are on tropical storm Sandy as it potentially grows into a “super storm” and takes aim at the Eastern seaboard. Many are comparing this storm to the famous Perfect Storm that claimed the Andrea Gail in 1991.

The combination of a slow moving category 1 hurricane, mixing with a cold winter storm depression entering from the west, could morph Sandy into the biggest storm to churn the North Atlantic in decades.

Impressive fact:
Status Category 1 Hurricane
Position 27.5° N, 77.2° W
Winds 75 mph
Gusts 90 mph
Movement N 7 mph
Pressure 28.64 in / 969 mb

The pressure is expected to fall even further, winds will increase, and the storm will rapidly intensify and expand. This is very fun to watch as a meteorologist, but scary for those on the east coast, or fishing swordfish somewhere in the North Atlantic.

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

WOW. What a Day.

It is going to be one of those extraordinary days that just takes your breath away. I hope you are all able to go outside and see all the incredible colors.

Weather talk:

What is referred to as a dirty ridge, or weak high pressure, will produce partly sunny skies today. The high, centered over central Oregon, will continue its southeasterly course. This will give way for the next developing weather pattern.

A few more inches of snow (2-4”) will be possible tomorrow due to a patch of cold air over the eastern basin. Freezing levels will hang around 3000’ through early Saturday morning.

All things change over the weekend as a large wall of warm air engulfs the area. A strong SW flow pattern will bring warm and wet conditions to the PNW through most of next week.

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

This snow producing low pressure system will move on shore and weaken as it passes over the mountains later today. The barometer will begin rise tonight as a weak ridge high pressure passes over the region. This will bring a dry and partly sunny day tomorrow.


A fast moving warm front, initially pushing cold air, arrives on Friday for another dose of snow. A warm air mass fills in behind for the soggy weekend of snow changing to rain.

MOUNTAIN WEATHER

Will the snow stick around?

That is the leading question of the day. Given the time of the year probably not, but it is looking favorable for more snow accumulation for the rest of the week. Snow showers with sun breaks will be the basic pattern through Thursday. On Friday, a stronger more organized front arrives for more mountian snow likely.

After Friday, all bets are off, as warm southwest flow develops over the weekend. This will likely bring rising freezing level and rain to the mountains on Saturday.

You can see the large area of warm air (red) heading our way from the SW. 

Will the Cascades get 400" of snow this winter?

The official forecast from the Climate Prediction Center - "Favors the continuation of borderline ENSO-neutral/weak El-Nino conditions into the Northern Hemishphere winter 2012-13, with the possibility of strengthening during the next few months."

How does the above statement equate to how much snow will fall on your favorite ski/board haunts?  Well, to answer that question, you have to play the averages.   For a well written web site on the subject go to:

http://www.skimountaineer.com/CascadeSki/CascadeSnowENSO.html

In a summary:   

Out of the last 8 weak to moderate El Nino years, on average, the cascade mountains received about 5-10% less snow fall than normal.   If the statistics and forecast for a weak to moderate El Nino hold true, Stevens should receive around 400” of snow this season.  

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Gusty east winds blowing through the Pass this morning has made for a brisk snowy day. Stevens received just a few inches of snow on the lower mountain over the weekend. The upper mountain has about 4-6” currently sitting on the ground. A few more inches of snow will probably happen today due to the low pressure system parked just off the PNW coast.

The mountain weather will begin to trend drier but with weak passing snow showers likely throughout the week. It will be possible to get a few more inches of snow as these showers continue to move through the region.

Freezing levels will hover near the 4000’ level through most of the week. Sun breaks will certainly push the mercury above freezing from time to time. The winds will be blustery and generally ESE through most of the week, as well.

I hope you all enjoy this week of typical PNW fickle fall weather.

JDM

Snow?

With all the talk of snow in the mountains for this weekend, it is time to take a closer look.

As anticipated, a warm front passed through the mountains last night with heavy rain and mild temperatures left in its wake. The leading edge of the approaching cold front made land fall this morning and is expected to reach the mountain later today.

Once the front moves through temperature will fall. The approaching cold air is well defined in the 850mb model below. Current freezing level models have the snow line around 3500’ by late tonight, and then fluctuating between 3500 and 4500’ through the weekend.

As with most cold fronts, the main bulk of moisture leads the frontal boundary with a cool unstable air mass trailing behind. There should be no exception to that rule with showers developing behind this front. These showers could be strong with building cumulus clouds and thunderstorms imbedded.

There is a moisture stream feeding in from the SW above the front that will be interesting to watch.  It can be seen below (40degree lat. line) it will be fascinating to see whether this gets cut off, or is allowed to continue feeding into the PNW.

The best chance of snow at Pass level will be during the early morning hours on Saturday. Snow accumulations 4-6”, it may be possible to receive a few more inches throughout the weekend with totals ranging between 6-10”. Precipitation diminished to light showers on Sunday/Monday.

Another Triple Point System Approaching

High cirrus clouds drifting over the mountains this morning indicate the approach of another system. The first front will be warm with moderate to heavy rain possible through the night and most tomorrow. A cold front associated with the triple point will rotate through sometime tomorrow afternoon. Freezing levels are expected to drop but not much below Pass level.

Expect moderate rain tonight and tomorrow with freezing levels between 6000’ and 7000’. Rain turning to showers through the weekend with freezing levels lowering to around 4500’. Although gusty winds can always be associated with triple point fronts, this system does not seem to be energized like last weeks, so winds should not be a factor


High cirrus clouds over Stevens Pass (11:00am)



The approaching tripple point just about to enter the PNW coast.

Cowboy Ridge's first snow of 2012/13

Last nights storm did not disappoint.  

First Triple Point Storm of the Season - SNOW?

A strong cold front with classic PNW features will hit the mountains tonight. The Puget Sound Convergence Zone will take up residence in the Hwy 2 corridor and Stevens Pass. Heavy precipitation with dropping freezing levels will grace the Cascade through most of the night. Snow could fall as low as 4000’. Watch for sustained westerly winds topping 50mph.

High pressure builds tomorrow night for a few days of sun. Rain returns on Thursday.

Enjoy

Mountain Weather Forecast:

A typical fall pattern has emerged which will continue through next week. Expect a wide range of temperatures with periods of rain and sun. There may even be a possibility of some snow in the high country towards the end of the week. This is all happening because the northern polar jet is now tracking directly over the PNW.

The coming weeks details:

Another front approaching the coast this morning will continue to saturate the region through the first part of the week. A high pressure ridge develops on Tuesday which should provide dry weather for the middle of the week. Unsettled, cooler NW flow is expected to end the week.

STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER

The dry weather ends on Friday.

Some atmospheric indicators of the changing weather pattern are starting to pop up. The barometric pressure is falling, low level clouds are on the coast, and high cirrus clouds are starting to be seen out to the west. The developing storm (below) is expected to reach the PNW coast sometime on Friday with rain spreading inland throughout the weekend.


The mountains should undergo a relatively wet weekend with periods of light rain on the east slopes of the Cascades. In the mean time, enjoy the last few days of this warm sunny weather.

A strong westerly flow pattern develops behind the initial front, this will allow a set of moist weather systems to be driven through the PNW. It appears that this historic dry period will end with a rather progressive wet weather pattern.

Sunday Morning Mountain Weather

The Record.

The longest dry spell in the Pacific Northwest history may eventually come to an end! For the Cascade Mountains, warm sunny days and chilly nights will continue through most of next week, but, desperately needed moisture will probably happen by weeks end.

Scientifically, a strong low pressure system developing in the north pacific should weaken this historic high pressure ridge throughout the upcoming week. Although still 5 days out, which makes the details unreliable, an aggressive cold front is expected to produce a period of wet weather to the PNW by the weekend.