October 10, 2013

WINTER FORECAST


Its that time of year when El Nino discussion start to circulate.
 
All season climate predictions are all based on the ENSO (El Nino/Nina) prediction models.  In the link belwo (last graph) are the 25 major ENSO prediction models.   The 0.0 line represents neutral or no El Nino or El Nina.   El Nino conditions start above the +0.5  while El Nina conditions would be below (-0.5) the median line.

Click on (sorry I could copy and paste the image for some reason)
 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/index.shtml 
 

The models split the 0 median line almost equally.  Based on this, confidence is fairly strong that North American can expect a “normal” winter in all geographical locations.  The key question is what is normal? 

If you want to geek out further on the graph, look at the trend of the models starting in Feb, March, April (FMA). They begin to trend slightly up, or towards El Nino conditions.  This will be something to keep and eye on as the season/ year progresses.

 
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/index.shtml
 

8:00am Start for 4/15/2024 - TEAR DOWN

 Great Last Day!