January 31, 2014
MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST
Time and Day: 1000
Friday
The Snapshot: Light snow showers slowly
diminishing through the day. The weekend
will be mostly dry with a few light snow showers possible.
The Science: A weak cold front that dropped through the region
this morning will generate light snow showers and lowing temperatures. A very cold air mass will settle over the region during the next few days. Light snow showers with sun breaks will be on
the weather menu for the weekend.
4-7day Long Range: Next week will be dry and cold as another high pressure ridge
develops. Cold arctic air will flow in
from Canada dropping temperatures into the single digits or lower by the middle
of next week.
Precipitation:
Water by
4am = .10 Snow =0-1
24hr
total inches of water ending at noon tomorrow =.10
24hr
total inches of snow ending at noon tomorrow = 0-1
Trend and Timing:
Most dry with a chance of some very light snow showers through the
weekend.
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Base Temp and Freezing
levels:
Low: 14 High: 24
Freezing level: +- 1000’
Trends and Timing
Freezing levels will remain well below Pass level well into next week.
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Winds (mph)
Base: 0-5 W
Ridge Top:0-10 W
Trend and Timing:
Light westerly flow will continue today and slowly turn northeasterly
as the weekend progresses.
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January 30, 2014
MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST
Time and Day: 0900
Thursday
The Snapshot: Cooler with snow showers
today. Drying trend begins tomorrow.
The Science: The low pressure system that brought us this nice
snow will weaken and drift east today leaving moderate to heavy snow showers in
its wake. The snow will slowly taper off
tomorrow afternoon as high pressure builds off the western coast.
4-7day Long Range: The weekend will trend dry under cool northwesterly flow. There will be a
chance for occasional light snow showers passing through from time to time. This pattern will persist into the coming
week.
Precipitation:
Water by
4am =.5-.75 Snow = 6-8
24hr
total inches of water ending at noon tomorrow = .75
24hr
total inches of snow ending at noon tomorrow = +-8
Trend and Timing:
The Puget Sound Convergence Zone is expected to develop this today. This should produce a 4-6hr period of heavy
snow this afternoon and evening. Snow
will taper off early tomorrow morning.
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Low: 16 High: 28
Freezing level: 3000’ 1500’
Trends and Timing
Freezing levels will continue to fall with low freezing levels continuing
into the weekend.
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Winds (mph)
Base: 5-10 W shifting E
Ridge Top: 5-15 W shifting E
Trend and Timing:
A period of gusty westerly winds will occur during the convergence
period this afternoon. Winds will
diminish and shift easterly overnight.
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January 29, 2014
MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST
Time and Day: 1130 Wednesday
The Snapshot: Finally some snow, and more on the way.
The Snapshot: Finally some snow, and more on the way.
The Science: After enduring a spike in temperature today
freezing levels will begin to fall. A low pressure system tracking through the
region will keep the snow falling tonight with the precipitation gradually
tapering off by the end of the week.
4-7day Long Range: A dry, cool
and partly sunny weekend is developing as our friend high pressure
returns.
Precipitation:
Water by
4am = .75” Snow = 6-8”
24hr
total inches of water ending at noon tomorrow = .75 -1
24hr
total inches of snow ending at noon tomorrow = 8-10”
Trend and Timing:
The steady snow will begin to diminish late tonight with the early
morning hours being mostly dry. Expect
intermittent snow through the day tomorrow.
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Low: 20 High: 34
Freezing level: 5000’ 2500’
Trends and Timing
Freezing levels will begin to drop this evening with a cooler airmass
settling over the region for the rest of the week.
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Winds (mph)
Base: 0-5 W
Ridge Top: 5-15 W
Trend and Timing:
Winds will remain westerly for the rest of the day. Winds shift north than northeast tomorrow
with east flow strengthening on Friday.
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January 28, 2014
MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST
Time and Day: 1000
Tuesday
The Snapshot: Cold air from the east
and warm air from the west will make for an interesting mix of precipitation today. Expect
snow tomorrow and Thursday.
The Science: A warm front lifting up from the south will bring
rising freezing levels and a mixed bag of precipitation today. Another warm front followed by a strong cold
front will push through tomorrow. This will eventually lower freezing levels and
change the precipitation to snow.
4-7day Long Range: Snow showers with sun breaks are expected to continue into Friday. With some luck, there could be +10” of snow
by the weekend. A cold stable air mass
dropping in from the north will create a mostly dry and cold weekend.
Precipitation:
Water by
4am = .25 Snow = 2-4
24hr
total inches of water ending at noon tomorrow = .5-.75
24hr
total inches of snow ending at noon tomorrow = 4-6
Trend and Timing:
Mix snow and rain, freezing rain and other types of precipitation will
continue through the night. The main bulk of moisture will arrive after
7pm tonight and continue through tomorrow.
The moisture should turn to all snow through the day tomorrow.
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Base Temp and Freezing
levels:
Low: 24 High: 32
Freezing level: +-4500’
Trends and Timing
Freezing levels will hover near 4500’ through tomorrow. East flow will help hold surface
temperatures at or just below freezing.
Warm air aloft will contribute to the temperature fluctuations.
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Winds (mph)
Base: 0-5 E
Ridge Top: 0-10 W
Trend and Timing:
East flow at Pass level with westerly flow aloft. Westerly flow will strengthen tomorrow with
+20mph ridge top winds likely.
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January 27, 2014
Why the Strange Weather?
Blame it all on the jet stream.
Specifically the Omega Block (Ω)
When a persistent high pressure ridge forms over the west coast, the jet stream becomes so pronounced that it takes the form of the Greek letter omega, (Ω). The overall weather pattern comes to a standstill, and the storm track, driven by the jet stream, cannot penetrate the block. The result has been persistent warm and dry weather for most of the west coast. This is also the source of frigid temperatures and snow in Midwest and East. The top of the omega ridge extends into the arctic north. Cold air is then pulled with the jet stream as it dives south into the center of the country.
today's jet. See the (Ω)?
The Good News.
The long term Jet Stream models have it flattening and becoming more west to east during the next 30days. If this comes true, the overall pattern will return to “normal”. The current climate predictions reflect this trend.
NOAA, Climate Trend Prediction of the West Coast:
When a persistent high pressure ridge forms over the west coast, the jet stream becomes so pronounced that it takes the form of the Greek letter omega, (Ω). The overall weather pattern comes to a standstill, and the storm track, driven by the jet stream, cannot penetrate the block. The result has been persistent warm and dry weather for most of the west coast. This is also the source of frigid temperatures and snow in Midwest and East. The top of the omega ridge extends into the arctic north. Cold air is then pulled with the jet stream as it dives south into the center of the country.
today's jet. See the (Ω)?
The Good News.
The long term Jet Stream models have it flattening and becoming more west to east during the next 30days. If this comes true, the overall pattern will return to “normal”. The current climate predictions reflect this trend.
NOAA, Climate Trend Prediction of the West Coast:
1 - 15
days = below normal temperatures and below normal precipitation.
30 -90
days = normal temperatures and normal precipitation.
Time and Day: 0900
Monday
The Snapshot: Thickening clouds and colder
with very light snow today; mixed rain and snow tomorrow.
The Science: As expected, the high pressure ridge has
weakened and shifted east. This has
opened the door for a low pressure system to reach the region. Radar
shows a stratus layer of clouds with light scattered snow showers entering the
mountains this morning. A strong
temperature gradient divided by the Cascade Crest will build strong easterly
flow through tomorrow. A warm front
followed by a cold front will create a mixed rain and snow event tomorrow with
snow on Wednesday.
4-7day Long Range: The week will trend colder and dryer under developing northerly
flow.
Precipitation:
Water by
4am = .10 Snow = 0-1
24hr
total inches of water ending at noon tomorrow = <.25
24hr
total inches of snow ending at noon tomorrow = 1-3
Trend and Timing:
Light snow showers expected through the night with little
accumulation. Snow changing to mixed rain
and snow tomorrow afternoon.
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Base Temp and Freezing
levels:
Low: 22 High: 26
Freezing level: 2500’ 3500’
Trends and Timing
Freezing levels are +- 2000’ east of the summit and +- 4000’ along the western
slopes. Freezing levels rise to 5000’
by tomorrow night.
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Winds (mph)
Base: 5-10 E
Ridge Top: 5-15 ESE
Trend and Timing:
Strong easterly winds this morning will weaken later today. East flow will continue through tomorrow
and shift westerly early Wednesday.
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January 26, 2014
January 25, 2014
MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST
Time and Day: 1100
Saturday
The Snapshot: Temperatures will rise into the 40’s today with sunny conditions continuing
through the weekend. Change is on the
way.
The Science: The high pressure is expected to weaken and shift
east during the next 24hrs. Cold arctic
air dropping into the center of the country will also extend far enough west
for a cooler temperature profile for the Cascades.
4-7day Long Range: A westerly flow pattern
takes shape for a more typical winter weather pattern next week. The first moisture should reach the mountains
on Tuesday with another system expected a few days later. Freezing levels, with east flow influence,
should be on our favor for snow. Cooler
NW flow develops during the ladder part of the week. These systems aren’t packing much energy so
significant snow is unlikely, but it is a change for the better.
Precipitation:
Water by
4am =0 Snow = 0
24hr
total inches of water ending at noon tomorrow = 0
24hr
total inches of snow ending at noon tomorrow =0
Trend and Timing:
No precipitation expected until early Tuesday morning.
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Low: 28 High:
44
Freezing level: +- 6000’
Trends and Timing
Freezing levels will rise above 6000’ today. Cool air streaming in from the NW will drop
freezing levels tomorrow night.
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Winds (mph)
Base:
Ridge Top:
Trend and Timing:
The winds have shifted south westerly this morning.
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January 24, 2014
MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST
Time and Day: 0930
Friday
The Snapshot: Abundant sunshine and warmer through the weekend. Hope for some snow next week.
The Science: A warmer air mass will move up from the
southwest resulting in higher daytime temperatures for the weekend. A shift from easterly flow to westerly flow and
warmer temperatures should scourer out the inversion layers trapped in the valley
on both sides of the crest.
4-7day Long Range: The long range models are starting to agree on
a pattern change starting early next week.
The large cold air mass sinking into Montana will provide cooler air for
eastern Washington; this should help with lowering freezing levels for the
incoming moisture. So for now, expect
snow around the middle of next week.
Precipitation:
Water by
4am = 0 Snow = 0
24hr
total inches of water ending at noon tomorrow =0
24hr
total inches of snow ending at noon tomorrow = 0
Trend and Timing:
0
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Low: 28 High: 44
Freezing level: 4500’ 7000’
Trends and Timing
Freezing levels will rise to 7000’ or higher through the weekend.
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Winds (mph)
Base: 0-5 E shifting W
Ridge Top: 0-10 ESE
Trend and Timing:
Light easterly flow will continue through the night with winds shifting
westerly tomorrow.
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8:00am Start for Friday 3/29/2024 No ABS
Warm and dry weather is on the way.