8:00 start sunday

8:00 start saturday

8:00 start Sunday

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day: 0900 Saturday

The Snapshot:  Today we can expect mixed rain and snow in the base area with mostly snow on the upper mountain.   Tomorrow will be mostly dry with high clouds.    

The Science:  Another frontal system (starting to sound like a broken record) will send another round of precipitation into the mountains today.  Freezing levels will be on the cusp of 4500’ – hence snow and rain.   Another weak high pressure ridge will pass over tomorrow for another dry interim day with yet another frontal system on Tuesday. 

4-7day Long Range:  This general pattern of a mixed bag of sun, snow and rain will continue through most of next week.   

Precipitation: 16hr Water by 4am tomorrow  = .5  Snow = 1-3 24hr water by noon tomorrow =.5-.75   Snow = 2-4 Trend and Timing: The moisture is expected to reach the mountains around noon today.  Rain in the base with mixed forms on the upper mountains is likely.

Base Temp and Freezing levels:  Low: 30    High: 40 Freezing level: 5000’    4000’ Trends and Timing Freezing levels will rise to 5000’ today and then drop to 4000’ once the front passes east off the crest later tonight.

Winds (mph) Base:  0-5 E shifting W Ridge Top: 0-5 E shifting W   Trend and Timing:  East flow this morning will shift westerly this afternoon.  Gusty ridge top winds will be likely through the night.

Start Time Saturday---8am

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day: 1000 Friday

The Snapshot:  Nice powder day treat.  The snow will diminish today with sun breaks this afternoon.  Tomorrow will start out partly cloudy with another mixed rain and snow event starting around noon. Sunday will be partly sunny with light occasional snow showers.   

The Science:  A passing high pressure ridge will pass over the mountains today bringing and end to the snow.  Another cold front approaching the coast is expected to reach the mountains tomorrow afternoon.  Mixed rain and snow can be anticipated tomorrow afternoon and evening.  Another weak high pressure ridge passes by on Sunday with broken clouds and light snow showers likely.

4-7day Long Range:  Next week will start out dry and warm with more weak systems entering the stage during the middle of next week.  

Precipitation: 16hr Water by 4am tomorrow  = 0    Snow = 0 24hr water by noon tomorrow =.10   Snow = 0-2 Trend and Timing: The rest of today and half of tomorrow will be mostly dry.  The next wave of precipitation will enter the mountain tomorrow afternoon with snow and rain.

Base Temp and Freezing levels:  Low: 30   High: 36 Freezing level: +-4500’ Trends and Timing Freezing levels will bounce between 3500’ and 4500’ for the next 24hrs.  Sun and seasonal daytime warming will push temperatures above freezing today and tomorrow.

Winds (mph) Base: 5-10 W Ridge Top:   5-15 W Trend and Timing:  Gusty westerly winds will slowly diminish today.   Winds will briefly shift easterly tonight and then back to westerly with the passing of the front tomorrow afternoon.

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day: 1130 Thursday

The Snapshot:  Rain today changing to snow tonight.  Windy tomorrow with snow tapering off by the afternoon.   A clearing trend begins tomorrow and last through Saturday. 

The Science:  An approaching cold front will lower temperatures and change the rain to snow late tonight. There will be a short lived convergence zone development during the early morning hours which could produce some measurable snow. A weak high pressure ridge passing over the mountains tomorrow afternoon will produce dry and partly cloudy weather leading into the weekend.

4-7day Long Range:  Another front will move through late Saturday night with more mixed rain and snow likely.  Sunday will be partly sunny with isolated snow showers.   

Precipitation: 16hr Water by 4am tomorrow  = .75  Snow = 4-8 24hr water by noon tomorrow = .75   Snow = 4-8 Trend and Timing: The rain will change to snow around midnight tonight.  Moderate snowfall will be possible during the early morning hours as a short lived convergence flow develops.  Snow will diminish to showers tomorrow morning and taper off by the afternoon.

Base Temp and Freezing levels:  Low: 24   High: 38 Freezing level: 5500’  3500’ Trends and Timing Freezing levels will rapidly drop in the wake of the passing cold front sometime after midnight.  Good daytime warming and sun breaks will push surface temperatures above freezing tomorrow afternoon.

Winds (mph) Base: 5-15 W Ridge Top: 10-20 W   Trend and Timing: Winds will also ramp up with the passing of the front late tonight.  Gusty westerly winds will begin to diminish in the afternoon.

Start Time Friday---8am

Start Time Thursday---8am

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day: 0930 Wednesday

The Snapshot:  Snow changing to rain today.  Rain is expected to continue through early Friday morning.

The Science: The approaching warm front slowed its approach this morning, delaying the transition from snow to rain.  That switch is still expected as warm air filters into the mountains through the day.  Several fronts imbedded in the unstable westerly flow will keep the moisture pumping through the region into Friday morning.  Freezing levels will stay above Pass level until early Friday morning.  Therefore, expect most of the precipitation to be rain with snow showers possible Friday morning.  

4-7day Long Range:   A short live high pressure ridge passes over Friday night producing an ok Saturday.  Another mixed rain and snow event is scheduled for Saturday night into early Sunday morning.    

Precipitation: 16hr Water by 4am tomorrow  = .25-.5    Snow = 0-2 24hr water by noon tomorrow = 1  Snow = 1-3 Trend and Timing: Light snow will change to rain today.  Moderate rain is expected tomorrow.

Base Temp and Freezing levels:  Low: 30   High: 38 Freezing level: -+ 5000’ Trends and Timing Freezing levels will gradually rise to +5000’ through the day.   Freezing levels will remain above Pass level through early Friday morning.

Winds (mph) Base: 0-5 WSW Ridge Top:  5-10 WSW Trend and Timing: Winds shouldn’t be much of a factor with these fronts.

Start Time Wednesday---8am

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day: 1000 Tuesday

The Snapshot:  Today will be mostly dry with isolated snow showers.  Mixed rain and snow tonight changing to rain overnight.   Tomorrow and Thursday will be quite wet with moderate to heavy rain throughout.  

The Science:  A significant change has occurred in the models since yesterday.  An approaching warm front will push a good dose of moisture into the mountains tonight.  Freezing levels will gradually rise as warm air advection occurs.  More rain will move through the region tomorrow night and Thursday.  High pressure begins to build on Friday for more enjoyable spring weather.  

4-7day Long Range:   Since Kiah only sacrificed a small chicken and not something more significant, the weekend will start out dry and sunny, but will end with the chance of rain and snow. 

Precipitation: 16hr Water by 4am tomorrow  = .25-.5   Snow = 3-5 24hr water by noon tomorrow = .75       Snow = 3-5 Trend and Timing: Moderate mixed snow and rain will begin tonight and gradually turn to all rain tomorrow.

Base Temp and Freezing levels:  Low: 30    High: 36 Freezing level: 4000’    5500’ Trends and Timing Freezing levels will gradually increase through the next 24hrs.

Winds (mph) Base:  5-10 W Ridge Top: 5-15 W    Trend and Timing: Periods of gusty westerly winds will continue in the mountains for the next few days.

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day: 0830 Monday

The Snapshot:  Today will continue to be dry and warm with high clouds developing.  A spring snow event is scheduled for tomorrow.  Very typical spring weather will continue in the Cascade Mountains.

The Science:  The high pressure cell that blesses us with the recent sunny weather is flattening and drifting south.  This will open the door for westerly flow to push a few weak disturbances into the PNW.   A cold front will swing through tomorrow producing some light snow. Wednesday will be a dry interim day before a warm front brings rain to the mountains on Thursday.      

4-7day Long Range:  High pressure return on Friday for another warm and clear weekend.  

Precipitation: 16hr Water by 4am tomorrow  = .25   Snow = 1-3 24hr water by noon tomorrow = .25  Snow = 1-3 Trend and Timing: Light snow will begin to fall after midnight tonight and continue through tomorrow.  The atmosphere begins to dry out tomorrow night and Wednesday with light rain or snow showers possible.

Base Temp and Freezing levels:  Low: 30   High: 45 Freezing level: 7000’     4000’ Trends and Timing Freezing levels will remain high today.  Temperatures’ will quickly drop as the front moves through after midnight tonight.  Surface temperatures will hover near freezing tomorrow with a gradual warming trend starting on Wednesday.

Winds (mph) Base: 0-5 E shifting W Ridge Top: 5-10 ESE shifting W Trend and Timing:  Winds will shift west and strengthen as the front approaches.  A short-lived gusty wind event will be likely as the front passes east of the crest early tomorrow morning.

8:00 start tuesday

Start Time Monday---8am

8:00 start Sunday

El Nino Report for Winter 2015.

Hello,

Below is the Spring Climate Prediction report:  http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/index.shtml

There is an  El Nino Watch is in effect.   The current data is pointing towards a strong El Nino climate developing this summer/fall.  What does this mean for the PNW?  A drier and warmer winter.    

   

Caveat:  Despite this greater model consensus, there remains considerable uncertainty as to when El Niño will develop and how strong it may become. This uncertainty is amplified by the inherently lower forecast skill of the models for forecasts made in the spring.

8:00 start saturday

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day: 0930 Friday

The Snapshot:  Today will be mostly cloudy with a chance of a sprinkle or two.   A clearing trend begins tomorrow with abundant sunshine for the weekend.

The Science:  A weak system clipping the NW portion of the state has produced a solid layer of clouds over Stevens Pass this morning.  Strengthening high pressure will begin to break up the cloud deck during the next 24hrs.   Cooler NE flow will keep freezing levels seasonable low through the weekend.       

4-7day Long Range: Next week will start out dry with soaring freezing levels (8K-10k+).  Some small systems will likely affect the region later in the week.  

Precipitation: 16hr Water by 4am tomorrow  = .10   Snow = trace 24hr water by noon tomorrow = .10  Snow = trace Trend and Timing: Some light precipitation will be possible today.  A prolonged dry trend will begin tomorrow.

Base Temp and Freezing levels:  Low: 28  High: 34 Freezing level: +-5000’ Trends and Timing Freezing levels will hover consistently around +-5000’.  Good daytime warming will push temperatures above freezing today and tomorrow.

Winds (mph) Base: 0-5 NW Ridge Top: 0-10 NW Trend and Timing: Light NW flow will slowly shift NE through the next few days.

8:00 start friday

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day:  0800 Thursday

The Snapshot:  Dry and partly sunny today.  There will be a chance of some light precipitation tomorrow as a weak system passes through the northern portion of the state. 

The Science:  The atmospheric pressure continues to build off the PNW coast.  A small disturbance making it up and over the ridge will bring a chance of some rain/snow tomorrow afternoon.  The high pressure ridge shifts north on Saturday for a sunny and warm weekend.  

4-7day Long Range:  Next week will be cooler with a chance of light snow on Tuesday.

Precipitation: 16hr Water by 4am tomorrow  = 0  Snow =0 24hr water by noon tomorrow = .10  Snow = trace Trend and Timing: Dry today with light mixed snow and rain possible tomorrow.

Base Temp and Freezing levels:  Low:24   High: 34 Freezing level: +-4500’ Trends and Timing Freezing levels will hover around 4500’ through tomorrow.

Winds (mph) Base: 0-10 WNW Ridge Top: 5-10 WNW Trend and Timing: WNW winds will be light to moderate.

Start Time Thursday---8am

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day: 0930 Wednesday

The Snapshot:  A clearing and drying trend begins today.  This pattern will likely continue through the weekend.

The Science:  Clouds will begin to dissipate as high pressure builds over the PNW.   Diurnal temperatures will occur with warm days and cool clear nights.  This should produce some fantastic corn snow by the weekend.       

4-7day Long Range:  Long range models have the high pressure lasting through the weekend.   A weak frontal system enters the scene early next week with some potential moisture.   

Precipitation: 16hr Water by 4am tomorrow  =0   Snow =0 24hr water by noon tomorrow = 0  Snow =0 Trend and Timing: Dry conditions will prevail for the rest of the week.

Base Temp and Freezing levels:  Low: 25   High: 36 Freezing level: +-4500’ Trends and Timing Clear skies will allow the temps to fall to the mid 20’s at night and rebound into the mid to high 30’s or even 40f during the day.

Winds (mph) Base: 0-5 WNW Ridge Top: 0-10 WNW Trend and Timing: Light NW flow will accompany the high pressure.