The season climate forecast
(ENSO- El Nino) is officially out:
Short-term Climate
Prediction: 30day
ENSO conditions are currently
neutral (neither El Nino or La Nina) but trending toward El Nino. This
suggest that the rest of September and most of the month of October will likely
have normal or slightly above normal temperatures and average precipitation
amounts.
October averages:
Average Max Temp = 48f
Average Min Temp = 34f
Average total Precip =
7”
Average Snow fall = 16”
Long Range – fall/early
Winter.
The good news. Forecast
models are now trending toward a weak El Nino.
Therefore a strong El Nino appears to be unlikely.
At this time, the consensus
of forecasters expects El Niño to emerge during September-October and to peak
at weak strength during the late fall and early winter. The chance of El Niño
is at 60-65% during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter.
The Quick and Dirty:
Normal start to winter (mid to late November) with slightly above normal
temperatures and slightly below precipiation amounts for the rest of the
winter. Emphasis on the word slightly.
In other words, the
winter will be just fine with plenty of powder for all.
