March 31, 2015

Super Typhoon Maysak

This is a biggy. 

http://mashable.com/2015/03/31/super-typhoon-maysak-record-western-pacific/


Puget Sound Convergence Zone

Puget Sound Convergence Zone.

Below is a radar link to a classic PS convergence Zone going on right now


http://www.atmos.washington.edu/weather/radar.shtml

JM

MOUNTAINW WEATHER FORECAST

0630 Tuesday:

The Snapshot:   Snow today and tomorrow; Thursday will be mostly dry with more precipitation beginning on Friday.

The Science:  The anticipated cold front passed the mountain just after midnight.   Moderate snow showers, falling temperatures and gusty winds will fill in behind the front today.  Snow totals by tomorrow morning will be determined by how strong and where the convergence zone decides to point; at Stevens or south?  Freezing levels will fall to 3000’ tonight with daytime warming expected for the remainder of the week.     

Long Range:  Thursday will be mostly dry with some light snow showers lingering in the mountains.  Another front enters the scene on Friday with more snow through the weekend.  

Precipitation ending at 4am:

Today’s 24hr Water = .5-.75   Snow =  5-10

Tomorrow’s 24hr Water = .25  Snow = 2-4

Trend and Timing:
Moderate snow showers today, snow tapering off tomorrow.


24hr temperature ending at 4am tomorrow: 
Low: 24   High: 34
Freezing level: +- 3000

Trends and Timing:
Freezing levels will fall to 3000’ by tonight.   A melt-freeze temperature profile will develop with daytime temperatures rising above freezing for the remainder of the week.      

 
24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4am tomorrow:
Base:  5-10 W gusty
Ridge Top:  5-15 W gusty

Trend and Timing:
Gusty westerly winds will continue today.



JM

March 30, 2015

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

0700 Monday:   

The Snapshot:  Don’t put those skis away just yet. Light intermittent rain showers with sun breaks today, snow tomorrow and Wednesday, dry on Thursday with more snow for the weekend.     

The Science: The first official week of April will be active in the weather department.  A strong cold front will push a good dose of moisture with falling temperature into the mountains starting early tomorrow morning.  Nice winter-like features such as NW flow and convergence zone activity is showing up on the models.  Moderate to heavy snow can be expected tomorrow with up to 10” possible.  Snow turns to intermittent showers in the wake of the front on Wednesday.   Thursday will be a dry interim day before other cold frontal system sets up to enter the PNW. 

Note: With such high temperatures today and cold unstable air rapidly mixing in, the chance of thunderstorms (lightening) development will be likely.  

Long Range:  Another cold front is expected to bring more snow on Friday.  It is a bit far out to be confident on how much snow will on the ground by Saturday morning, but it is looking promising.  Stay Tuned.

Precipitation ending at 4am:

Today’s 24hr Water =.10    Snow = 1/2” 

Tomorrow’s 24hr Water =  .75  Snow =  6-10

Trend and Timing:
Light rain will be possible through the early morning hours of tomorrow.  Snow begins tomorrow morning and continues through the day.


24hr temperature ending at 4am tomorrow: 
Low: 32  High: 55
Freezing level: 8000’   4000.’

Trends and Timing:
Freezing levels will peak +8000’ today and rapidly fall after midnight.
 
24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4am tomorrow:
Base: 0-5 W
Ridge Top: 5-15 W  

Trend and Timing:
Gusty westerly winds will accompany the leading edge of the cold front early tomorrow morning. Winds will diminish tomorrow as they shift NW through the day.


JM

March 14, 2015

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECASTS


FYI

I will be off and unplugged until March 30th.  You will have to rely on your other favorite meteorologist until then.  


JM 

Start Time Sunday 8am

Forecast spell check

 plume vs plumb.   A plume of moisture has been plumbed in today.  

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

0730 Saturday:

The Snapshot:  Rain today, mixed rain and snow tonight and then again tomorrow.

The Science:  This morning’s satellite imagery has widespread rain, originating from a subtropical plumb spreading throughout the state. A cold front preparing to enter the scene tonight will cut off the moisture and drop freezing levels to +- 4500’.  Rain and snow return tomorrow as a low-pressure system tracking up the coast spins another band of moisture through the Cascade Mountains.   East flow developing will push temperatures just below freezing for some snow early Monday morning. 
  
Long Range:  Next week will start out wet with snow turning to rain on Monday.   High-pressure east of the mountains and weak weather systems clipping the NW coast will bring a mixed bag off weather for the next +- 7 days.       

Weather of Note: Cat 5 Cyclone Pam hit the South Pacific (southern hemisphere) yesterday.  Pam is one of the strongest storms on recorded with record breaking low barometric pressure.   (-900 mb with 165mph sustained winds)     

Precipitation ending at 4am:

Today’s 24hr Water = 1   Snow =  1-3

Tomorrow’s 24hr Water = .75  Snow = 3-5 

Trend and Timing:
Rain today changing to mixed snow late tonight, a dry start to the day tomorrow with mixed rain and snow developing later in the day.  The precipitation will diminish by Monday evening.


24hr temperature ending at 4am tomorrow: 
Low: 30   High: 46
Freezing level: 7000’   4500.’

Trends and Timing:
Freezing levels will temporarily fall to +-4500’ in the wake of the passing cold front late tonight.  Freezing levels will fluctuate between 4000’ and 5000’ through Monday morning.

 
24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4am tomorrow:
Base: 0-10 W
Ridge Top:   5-15 W gusty

Trend and Timing:
Westerly flow today with gusty ridge top winds.  East flow develops tomorrow.




JM

March 13, 2015

Start Time Saturday---8am

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

0930 Friday:

The Snapshot:  Dry and warm today with thickening clouds; rain tomorrow changing to snow early Sunday morning, mostly dry and cooler on Sunday, rain/snow Sunday night/Monday.  

The Science:  A moist storm system preparing to enter the region will spread rain to the Cascade Mountains tomorrow.   A cold front will swing through late tomorrow night dropping freezing levels to +-4500’ therefore, some snow will be possible early Sunday morning.  The main bulk of moisture begins to sags south of Stevens Pass during the day on Sunday for a mostly dry day. 

Long Range: A low-pressure system tracking up the coast will bring a chance of mixed rain and snow early Monday morning.  The rest of next week will be dry under a split flow pattern. 


Precipitation ending at 4am:

Today’s 24hr Water = .10   Snow = 0

Tomorrow’s 24hr Water = .75-1  Snow = 1-2

Trend and Timing:
Rain begins after midnight tonight and will continue through late tomorrow night. 


24hr temperature ending at 4am tomorrow: 
Low: 36   High: 55
Freezing level: 8000’   5000.’

Trends and Timing:
Freezing levels will spike near 9000’ today and then fall through the night to around 4500’.  Daytime temperatures could reach +600 today. 

 
24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4am tomorrow:
Base: 0-5 E shifting W
Ridge Top:  0-10 ESE shifting SW

Trend and Timing:
East flow will shift SW overnight with the passing of the front.  Expected periods of gusty ridge top winds through tomorrow.



JM

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Weather models have had issue this morning.   I am hoping to have a forecast out in about an hour.


J

March 12, 2015

Mountain Weather Forecast Update.

Mountain Weather Forecast Update.
The current cloud deck is thinning, and that trend will continue through today.  Tomorrow will be dry with sun breaks and very high freezing levels (10,000’+).  There is talk of record high temperatures tomorrow with west slope temps hitting 700f.    With some luck and good radiation cooling (a clear night), low temperatures will drop to the mid to lower 30’s during the early morning hours.

Saturdays storm details as of now:
Many changes are in the works as the approaching system matures; I would expect more changes with tomorrow’s update as well.  For now:
Rain arrives after 4am Saturday morning with .75-1” through the day.  (Joel’s optimistic gut may be right) 
Precipitation ends after 7pm Saturday night.
Sunday is trending dry with the main system now tracking south of Stevens Pass.  Freezing will struggle to drop below 4000’. Therefore, no snow is forecasted at this time.

Long-range: 

Long-range models continue to have little consistency, so confidence is low here as well.  With that said, a split flow pattern develops early next week with mostly dry weather forecasted. Temperatures continue to be on the warm side, so no significant snow is expected for the next 7-10 days. 

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

0715 Thursday:

The Snapshot:   The rain and the wind will diminish today with partly clear condition lasting through tomorrow; rain on the weekend.

The Science:  .33” of water dropped on Stevens Pass during the last 24hrs.  A weak high-pressure ridge building this morning will dry things up through tomorrow.  The next storm system schedule to arrive early Saturday morning is complex with two cut-off lows embedded in a sub-tropical moisture stream.  Therefore, the models are having a hard time nailing down the details and timing.  To complicate things even further, a cold front tracking in from the NW will bring cold air aloft into the mix sometime on Sunday with some snow possible on the back end of the system.  The timing of the all this is still in question so stay tuned.

Weekend storm water equivalents:
4am Saturday – 4am Sunday  +1.”
4am Sunday – 4am Monday     5-.75.    2-4” of snow.

Long Range:  Another high-pressure ridge begins on Monday with a return to dry spring-like weather for most of the upcoming week.   Long-range models have also been fickle, so trust in the forecast is low.


Precipitation ending at 4am:

Today’s 24hr Water = .10   Snow =  0

Tomorrow’s 24hr Water = 0  Snow = 0

Trend and Timing:
Light rain ends this morning, dry through early Saturday morning.


24hr temperature ending at 4am tomorrow: 
Low:  34  High: 48
Freezing level: 8000.’

Trends and Timing:
Freezing levels will remain well above Pass level through Sunday morning.

 
24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4am tomorrow:
Base: 0-10 WSW
Ridge Top: 5-10 SW   

Trend and Timing:
Ridge top winds will diminish today and shift easterly tomorrow.



JM

Start Time Friday 8:30am

March 11, 2015

Start Time Thursday---8:30am

MOUNTAIN WEATHE FORECAST

0700 Wednesday:

The Snapshot:  Light rain today, mostly dry tomorrow and Friday,  rain on Saturday changing to snow on Sunday.  

The Science: Bands of light rain will track through the Cascades through early tomorrow morning.   Most of tomorrow and Friday will be partly clear and dry under weak high-pressure.   A warm front will bring moderate rain to the mountains with +5500’ freezing levels on Saturday.  

Long Range:  A cold front is expected to swing through on Sunday morning changing the rain to snow.  Only of few inches of snow is expected on Sunday before it tapers off.  Spring returns on Monday with another stretch of dry, warm weather.

Precipitation ending at 4am:

Today’s 24hr Water = .25   Snow = 0 

Tomorrow’s 24hr Water = .10  Snow = 0

Trend and Timing:
The light rain showers will slowly taper off tomorrow morning.


24hr temperature ending at 4am tomorrow: 
Low:32    High: 40
Freezing level: 5500’

Trends and Timing:
Temperatures will continue to fluctuate between 300f and 400f through Sunday morning.

 
24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4am tomorrow:
Base: 0-5 E shifting W
Ridge Top:  5-10 W

Trend and Timing:
A short period of east flow will develop this morning, winds shift westerly tonight.



JM

March 10, 2015

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

0730 Tuesday:

The Snapshot: Clouds will move in today with light rain tonight and Thursday, dry Friday, rain to start the weekend.  

The Science:  A slow moving front will reach the mountains late tonight with light rain showers tomorrow and Thursday.  A dirty ridge (weak short-lived high-pressure) will cut off the moisture late Thursday and Friday for a dry end to the week.       

Long Range: A frontal system will bring moderate rain (+ 1”) on Saturday and Sunday.  A cold front swings through on Sunday with a little snow on the back end of the storm.  High-pressure lifts up from the south late Sunday with a return to spring like weather early next week.
  

Precipitation ending at 4am:

Today’s 24hr Water =<.25    Snow =  0

Tomorrow’s 24hr Water = +.25   Snow =  0

Trend and Timing:
Light rain showers will develop tonight and continue into Thursday morning.


24hr temperature ending at 4am tomorrow: 
Low: 34   High: 55
Freezing level: 8000’  5500.’

Trends and Timing:
Freezing levels will fall to 5500’ through the night but remain above Pass level through Saturday.

 
24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4am tomorrow:
Base: 0-5 SW
Ridge Top:  5-15 WSW gusty

Trend and Timing:
Short periods of east flow will occur, but the general wind pattern through the week will be SW.  Gusty periods along the ridge tops can be expected with the passing of the fronts.



JM

8:30 Start time Wednesday

March 9, 2015

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

0800 Monday:

The Snapshot:  Clear and warm again today with clouds developing tomorrow; light rain will be possible on Wednesday and then again over the weekend.  

The Science:  This morning’s radar has most of the state under clear and dry skies with warm onshore flow pushing surface temperatures into the 50’s again today.  The high-pressure cell that has dominated our weather pattern is drifting southwest of the region today; this will open the door for some moisture to enter the scene starting on Wednesday.    

Long Range:  Most of Thursday and Friday will be dry with rain on Saturday and Sunday.

Precipitation ending at 4am:

Today’s 24hr Water = 0   Snow = 0 

Tomorrow’s 24hr Water = 0  Snow = 0

Trend and Timing:
No moisture expected until early Wednesday morning.


24hr temperature ending at 4am tomorrow: 
Low: 34   High: 50
Freezing level: 8000.’

Trends and Timing:
Freezing levels will remain above 5000’ through the week.

 
24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4am tomorrow:
Base: 0-5 W
Ridge Top: 5-10 W  

Trend and Timing:
Light westerly flow will slowly shift southwest during the next few days.



JM

March 8, 2015

8:30 start Monday

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

0700 Sunday:

The Snapshot:  More sunny spring weather today and tomorrow.   

The Science:  The high temperature reached 520f  yesterday and is expected to be in that neighborhood again today.   The next weather feature of interest is a low-pressure system developing out yonder in the big pool.  This will degrade the high-pressure along the west coast and begin to push bands of moisture through the regions starting on Wednesday.  Unfortunately, this will also have warm southerly flow associated with it, thus, rain is likely.

Long Range: Next weekend appears to be rainy at this point in time.

Precipitation ending at 4am:

Today’s 24hr Water = 0   Snow = 0 

Tomorrow’s 24hr Water = 0  Snow =  0

Trend and Timing:
0


24hr temperature ending at 4am tomorrow: 
Low:34    High: 54
Freezing level: +- 8000.’

Trends and Timing:
Warm temperatures will continue.  It is not likely to see low temperatures drop below freezing for the next several days.

 
24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4am tomorrow:
Base: 0-5 W
Ridge Top:  0-10 W  

Trend and Timing:
Light westerly winds continue into the new week.



JM

8:00am Start for Friday 3/29/2024 No ABS

 Warm and dry weather is on the way.