This is a biggy.
http://mashable.com/2015/03/31/super-typhoon-maysak-record-western-pacific/
March 31, 2015
Puget Sound Convergence Zone
Puget
Sound Convergence Zone.
Below is
a radar link to a classic PS convergence Zone going on right now
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/weather/radar.shtml
JM
MOUNTAINW WEATHER FORECAST
0630 Tuesday:
The Snapshot: Snow today and tomorrow; Thursday will be mostly dry with more precipitation
beginning on Friday.
The Science: The anticipated cold front passed the mountain
just after midnight. Moderate snow
showers, falling temperatures and gusty winds will fill in behind the front
today. Snow totals by tomorrow morning
will be determined by how strong and where the convergence zone decides to
point; at Stevens or south? Freezing
levels will fall to 3000’ tonight with daytime warming expected for the
remainder of the week.
Long Range: Thursday will
be mostly dry with some light snow showers lingering in the mountains. Another front enters the scene on Friday with
more snow through the weekend.
Precipitation ending at 4am:
Today’s 24hr Water = .5-.75 Snow = 5-10
Tomorrow’s 24hr Water = .25 Snow
= 2-4
Trend and Timing:
Moderate snow
showers today, snow tapering off tomorrow.
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24hr temperature ending at 4am
tomorrow:
Low: 24 High: 34
Freezing level:
+- 3000
Trends
and Timing:
Freezing levels will fall
to 3000’ by tonight. A melt-freeze temperature profile will develop
with daytime temperatures rising above freezing for the remainder of the week.
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24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4am
tomorrow:
Base: 5-10 W gusty
Ridge Top: 5-15 W gusty
Trend
and Timing:
Gusty westerly
winds will continue today.
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JM
March 30, 2015
MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST
0700 Monday:
The Snapshot: Don’t put those skis away just yet. Light intermittent rain showers with
sun breaks today, snow tomorrow and Wednesday, dry on Thursday with more snow
for the weekend.
The Science: The first
official week of April will be active in the weather department. A strong cold front will push a good dose of
moisture with falling temperature into the mountains starting early tomorrow
morning. Nice winter-like features such
as NW flow and convergence zone activity is showing up on the models. Moderate to heavy snow can be expected
tomorrow with up to 10” possible. Snow
turns to intermittent showers in the wake of the front on Wednesday. Thursday will be a dry interim day before other
cold frontal system sets up to enter the PNW.
Note: With such high temperatures today and cold unstable air rapidly
mixing in, the chance of thunderstorms (lightening) development will be likely.
Long Range: Another cold
front is expected to bring more snow on Friday.
It is a bit far out to be confident on how much snow will on the ground
by Saturday morning, but it is looking promising. Stay Tuned.
Precipitation ending at 4am:
Today’s 24hr Water =.10 Snow
= 1/2”
Tomorrow’s 24hr Water = .75 Snow =
6-10
Trend and Timing:
Light rain
will be possible through the early morning hours of tomorrow. Snow begins tomorrow morning and continues
through the day.
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24hr temperature ending at 4am
tomorrow:
Low: 32 High: 55
Freezing level:
8000’ 4000.’
Trends
and Timing:
Freezing
levels will peak +8000’ today and rapidly fall after midnight.
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24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4am
tomorrow:
Base: 0-5 W
Ridge Top: 5-15
W
Trend
and Timing:
Gusty
westerly winds will accompany the leading edge of the cold front early
tomorrow morning. Winds will diminish tomorrow as they shift NW through the
day.
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JM
March 14, 2015
MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECASTS
FYI
I
will be off and unplugged until March 30th. You will have to rely on your other favorite meteorologist until then.
JM
Forecast spell check
plume vs plumb. A plume of moisture has been plumbed in today.
MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST
0730 Saturday:
The Snapshot: Rain today, mixed rain and snow tonight and then again tomorrow.
The Science: This morning’s satellite imagery has widespread
rain, originating from a subtropical plumb spreading throughout the state. A
cold front preparing to enter the scene tonight will cut off the moisture and
drop freezing levels to +- 4500’. Rain
and snow return tomorrow as a low-pressure system tracking up the coast spins
another band of moisture through the Cascade Mountains. East
flow developing will push temperatures just below freezing for some snow early
Monday morning.
Long Range: Next week will start out wet with snow
turning to rain on Monday. High-pressure east of the mountains and weak
weather systems clipping the NW coast will bring a mixed bag off weather for
the next +- 7 days.
Weather of Note: Cat 5 Cyclone Pam hit the South
Pacific (southern hemisphere) yesterday.
Pam is one of the strongest storms on recorded with record breaking
low barometric pressure. (-900 mb with
165mph sustained winds)
Precipitation ending at 4am:
Today’s 24hr Water = 1 Snow = 1-3
Tomorrow’s 24hr Water = .75 Snow
= 3-5
Trend and Timing:
Rain today
changing to mixed snow late tonight, a dry start to the day tomorrow with
mixed rain and snow developing later in the day. The precipitation will diminish by Monday evening.
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24hr temperature ending at 4am
tomorrow:
Low: 30 High: 46
Freezing level:
7000’ 4500.’
Trends
and Timing:
Freezing
levels will temporarily fall to +-4500’ in the wake of the passing cold front
late tonight. Freezing levels will
fluctuate between 4000’ and 5000’ through Monday morning.
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24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4am
tomorrow:
Base: 0-10 W
Ridge Top: 5-15
W gusty
Trend
and Timing:
Westerly flow
today with gusty ridge top winds. East
flow develops tomorrow.
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JM
March 13, 2015
MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST
0930 Friday:
The Snapshot: Dry and warm today with thickening clouds;
rain tomorrow changing to snow early Sunday morning, mostly dry and cooler on
Sunday, rain/snow Sunday night/Monday.
The Science: A moist storm system preparing to enter the region
will spread rain to the Cascade Mountains tomorrow. A cold
front will swing through late tomorrow night dropping freezing levels to +-4500’
therefore, some snow will be possible early Sunday morning. The main bulk of moisture begins to sags south of
Stevens Pass during the day on Sunday for a mostly dry day.
Long Range: A low-pressure
system tracking up the coast will bring a chance of mixed rain and snow early
Monday morning. The rest of next week
will be dry under a split flow pattern.
Precipitation ending at 4am:
Today’s 24hr Water = .10 Snow = 0
Tomorrow’s 24hr Water = .75-1 Snow = 1-2
Trend and Timing:
Rain begins
after midnight tonight and will continue through late tomorrow night.
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24hr temperature ending at 4am
tomorrow:
Low: 36 High: 55
Freezing level:
8000’ 5000.’
Trends
and Timing:
Freezing levels will spike
near 9000’ today and then fall through the night to around 4500’. Daytime temperatures could reach +600 today.
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24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4am
tomorrow:
Base: 0-5 E
shifting W
Ridge Top: 0-10 ESE shifting SW
Trend
and Timing:
East flow
will shift SW overnight with the passing of the front. Expected periods of gusty ridge top winds
through tomorrow.
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JM
MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST
Weather
models have had issue this morning. I
am hoping to have a forecast out in about an hour.
J
March 12, 2015
Mountain Weather Forecast Update.
Mountain Weather Forecast Update.
The current cloud deck is thinning,
and that trend will continue through today.
Tomorrow will be dry with sun breaks and very high freezing levels (10,000’+). There is talk of record high temperatures
tomorrow with west slope temps hitting 700f. With some luck and good radiation cooling (a
clear night), low temperatures will drop to the mid to lower 30’s during the early
morning hours.
Saturdays storm details as of now:
Many changes are in the works as the approaching
system matures; I would expect more changes with tomorrow’s update as well. For now:
Rain arrives after 4am Saturday
morning with .75-1” through the day. (Joel’s
optimistic gut may be right)
Precipitation ends after 7pm Saturday
night.
Sunday is trending dry with the main
system now tracking south of Stevens Pass.
Freezing will struggle to drop below 4000’. Therefore, no snow is
forecasted at this time.
Long-range:
Long-range models continue to have
little consistency, so confidence is low here as well. With that said, a split flow pattern develops
early next week with mostly dry weather forecasted. Temperatures continue to be
on the warm side, so no significant snow is expected for the next 7-10 days.
MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST
0715 Thursday:
The Snapshot: The rain and the wind will diminish today with partly clear condition
lasting through tomorrow; rain on the weekend.
The Science: .33” of water dropped on Stevens Pass during the
last 24hrs. A weak high-pressure ridge
building this morning will dry things up through tomorrow. The next storm system schedule to arrive early
Saturday morning is complex with two cut-off lows embedded in a sub-tropical
moisture stream. Therefore, the models
are having a hard time nailing down the details and timing. To complicate things even further, a cold
front tracking in from the NW will bring cold air aloft into the mix sometime
on Sunday with some snow possible on the back end of the system. The timing of the all this is still in
question so stay tuned.
Weekend storm water equivalents:
4am Saturday – 4am Sunday +1.”
4am Sunday – 4am Monday 5-.75.
2-4” of snow.
Long Range: Another high-pressure ridge begins
on Monday with a return to dry spring-like weather for most of the upcoming
week. Long-range models have also been fickle,
so trust in the forecast is low.
Precipitation ending at 4am:
Today’s 24hr Water = .10 Snow = 0
Tomorrow’s 24hr Water = 0 Snow
= 0
Trend and Timing:
Light rain
ends this morning, dry through early Saturday morning.
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24hr temperature ending at 4am
tomorrow:
Low: 34 High:
48
Freezing level:
8000.’
Trends
and Timing:
Freezing
levels will remain well above Pass level through Sunday morning.
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24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4am
tomorrow:
Base: 0-10
WSW
Ridge Top:
5-10 SW
Trend
and Timing:
Ridge top
winds will diminish today and shift easterly tomorrow.
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JM
March 11, 2015
MOUNTAIN WEATHE FORECAST
0700 Wednesday:
The Snapshot: Light rain today, mostly dry tomorrow and Friday, rain on Saturday changing to snow on Sunday.
The Science: Bands of light
rain will track through the Cascades through early tomorrow morning. Most of tomorrow and Friday will be partly
clear and dry under weak high-pressure.
A warm front will bring moderate rain to the mountains with +5500’
freezing levels on Saturday.
Long Range: A cold front is expected to swing
through on Sunday morning changing the rain to snow. Only of few inches of snow is expected on
Sunday before it tapers off. Spring
returns on Monday with another stretch of dry, warm weather.
Precipitation ending at 4am:
Today’s 24hr Water = .25 Snow = 0
Tomorrow’s 24hr Water = .10 Snow
= 0
Trend and Timing:
The light
rain showers will slowly taper off tomorrow morning.
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24hr temperature ending at 4am
tomorrow:
Low:32 High:
40
Freezing level:
5500’
Trends
and Timing:
Temperatures
will continue to fluctuate between 300f and 400f through
Sunday morning.
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24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4am
tomorrow:
Base: 0-5 E
shifting W
Ridge Top: 5-10 W
Trend
and Timing:
A short
period of east flow will develop this morning, winds shift westerly tonight.
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JM
March 10, 2015
MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST
0730 Tuesday:
The Snapshot: Clouds will move
in today with light rain tonight and Thursday, dry Friday, rain to start the
weekend.
The Science: A slow moving front will reach the mountains late tonight with light
rain showers tomorrow and Thursday.
A dirty ridge (weak short-lived high-pressure) will cut off the moisture
late Thursday and Friday for a dry end to the week.
Long Range: A frontal system will bring moderate rain (+ 1”) on Saturday and
Sunday. A cold front swings through on
Sunday with a little snow on the back end of the storm. High-pressure lifts up from the south late
Sunday with a return to spring like weather early next week.
Precipitation ending at 4am:
Today’s 24hr Water =<.25 Snow
= 0
Tomorrow’s 24hr Water = +.25 Snow =
0
Trend and Timing:
Light rain
showers will develop tonight and continue into Thursday morning.
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24hr temperature ending at 4am
tomorrow:
Low: 34 High: 55
Freezing level:
8000’ 5500.’
Trends
and Timing:
Freezing
levels will fall to 5500’ through the night but remain above Pass level
through Saturday.
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24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4am
tomorrow:
Base: 0-5 SW
Ridge Top: 5-15 WSW gusty
Trend
and Timing:
Short periods
of east flow will occur, but the general wind pattern through the week will
be SW. Gusty periods along the ridge
tops can be expected with the passing of the fronts.
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JM
March 9, 2015
MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST
0800 Monday:
The Snapshot: Clear and warm again today with clouds developing tomorrow; light rain will
be possible on Wednesday and then again over the weekend.
The Science: This morning’s radar has most of the state under
clear and dry skies with warm onshore flow pushing surface temperatures into
the 50’s again today. The high-pressure
cell that has dominated our weather pattern is drifting southwest of the region
today; this will open the door for some moisture to enter the scene starting on
Wednesday.
Long Range: Most of Thursday and Friday will
be dry with rain on Saturday and Sunday.
Precipitation ending at 4am:
Today’s 24hr Water = 0 Snow = 0
Tomorrow’s 24hr Water = 0 Snow
= 0
Trend and Timing:
No moisture
expected until early Wednesday morning.
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24hr temperature ending at 4am
tomorrow:
Low: 34 High: 50
Freezing level:
8000.’
Trends
and Timing:
Freezing levels
will remain above 5000’ through the week.
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24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4am
tomorrow:
Base: 0-5 W
Ridge Top: 5-10
W
Trend
and Timing:
Light
westerly flow will slowly shift southwest during the next few days.
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JM
March 8, 2015
MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST
0700 Sunday:
The Snapshot: More sunny spring weather today and tomorrow.
The Science: The high temperature reached 520f yesterday and is expected to be in that neighborhood
again today. The next weather feature
of interest is a low-pressure system developing out yonder in the big pool. This will degrade the high-pressure along the
west coast and begin to push bands of moisture through the regions starting on Wednesday. Unfortunately, this will also have warm
southerly flow associated with it, thus, rain is likely.
Long Range: Next weekend appears to be rainy at this point in time.
Precipitation ending at 4am:
Today’s 24hr Water = 0 Snow = 0
Tomorrow’s 24hr Water = 0 Snow
= 0
Trend and Timing:
0
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24hr temperature ending at 4am
tomorrow:
Low:34 High:
54
Freezing level:
+- 8000.’
Trends
and Timing:
Warm
temperatures will continue. It is not
likely to see low temperatures drop below freezing for the next several days.
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24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4am
tomorrow:
Base: 0-5 W
Ridge Top: 0-10 W
Trend
and Timing:
Light
westerly winds continue into the new week.
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JM
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Warm and dry weather is on the way.