Work hard, but play harder

Clay

The most important person to shape the Stevens Pass Culture in the last 20 years.   

Show up every day with the same attitude – “work hard but play harder”.

Clay was one of those natural leaders who shaped a culture.  Clay’s passion and focus for whatever he was doing at the moment, was infectious.  Whether conducting morning meetings, working harder than most, being in the right place at the right time all day every day, shaping patrol policy, or training rookie and veteran patrollers, his love for the mountains and life just glued to your skin. 

  

After a hard work week, while most were getting some needed rest; Clay was up early, backpack packed, and out the door – “free skiing”.  Clay was a master at working the spines of the steeps or searching for the perfect powder line.  “see ya at the bottom”. He didn't like to stop mid way through anything.  

This is what working hard but playing harder meant to Clay.  This infectious attitude shaped the Stevens Pass alpine culture by pure infusion of passion.  Everyone wanted to be like that.  You had to. In or order to rise to the level of the elite, the respected and the professional, you had to try and work and play like Clay.  Not too many of us could, but we tried, and that is how the amazing ski culture was shaped.  The Stevens Pass culture is firmly planted in the psyche of the mountain and will surely live on – thank you Clay.    See you at the bottom my friend.     

JM

Mountain Weather Forecast

Time and Day: Thursday 2 pm.

The Snapshot:  Cloudy with light rain tomorrow; dry, cooler and sunny for the weekend.  Beautiful fall weather is taking shape for next week.

The Science:  High pressure building off the western coast will push most of the incoming precipitation north into Canada.  Therefore, the previously forecasted rain has been downgraded with less than .25” tomorrow and the weekend trending dry and clear.

Long Range:   Most of the moisture will be confined to the northern coast through the middle of next week with the mountains remaining dry mostly sunny.        

Precipitation ending at 4am: Today’s 24hr Water = -.25   Snow = 0  Tomorrow’s 24hr Water = .10  Snow = 0  Trend and Timing: Light rain showers are expected to reach the mountain early tomorrow morning.   Rain ends during the afternoon.

24hr temperature ending at 4am tomorrow:  Low:  40  High: 60 Freezing level: + 7000’ Trends and Timing: Early morning temperatures will dip into the mid 30’s through the weekend.  Daytime surface temps will hit “50 each day.

24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4am tomorrow: Base: 0-5 W Ridge Top: 0-10 WNW   Trend and Timing: Light westerlies winds will shift WNW through the weekend.

JM

Historical El Nino Perspective

Check out these sites on the historical El Nino temperature trends through the years. A bit frightening.

http://wxshift.com/climate-change/climate-indicators/el-nino

http://wxshift.com/news/animation-el-nino-comparison



JDM

The Fall Equinox 14 day Climate Forecast

Hi,

An interesting 8-14 day climate forecast outlook.   With all the El Nino talk, you would think the trend would be dry and warm.  Not so for the start of Fall,  just two days away.

below average temperatures and above normal precipitation is forecasted for the next two weeks.   Let’s hope that trend continues into mid to late fall.    In the mean time enjoy this fantastic early fall weather.  Rain is coming for the weekend.

El Nino Forecast:

There is an approximately 95% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, gradually weakening through spring 2016.

For official report go to http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf

Summary:   El Nino official materialized in the spring of 2015 and has slowly intensified through the summer.   All models surveyed predict El Niño to continue into spring 2016, and all multi-model averages predict a peak in late fall/early winter. The forecaster consensus unanimously favors a strong El Niño  

What does this mean for the PNW?

During an El Nino event, the Pacific Jet Stream often shift southward which make precipitation more likely to occur across the southern tier of the US.   As fall progresses,  the PNW can expect a decrease in average rainfall and warmer than average temperatures.

The Blob Effect:

There has been recent chatter about how The Blob (the large area of warm water off the west coast) is going to affect the jet stream and counter the El Nino effect.

 El Nino is expected to dominate the large-scale pattern over the PNW.   This is a game of sheer scale of atmospheric physics. The Blob is not capable of changing the overlying pattern in any significant way.  El Nino will likely have an effect on the Blob, not the other way around.

There ya have it.

JDM.

Fall is in the Air

Yes, and that means winter and snow.

Here is a new weather web site that does a nice job of mixing weather and climate information.  

Enjoy.   http://wxshift.com/

FYI – I will start doing weekly weather forecasts starting Oct 1^st and more if needed as we get closer to November. 

JM