October 31, 2015

MOUNJTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day: 10:00 Saturday

The Snapshot:   Got Rain?   Heavy rain continues today. Mixed rain and snow will be possible around 4500’ Sunday with dry and cooler conditions developing next week.

The Science:  This impressive storm has dropped 4” of rain on Stevens Pass thus far.  Another front with a southwest fetch of moisture will continue to drown the Cascade Mountains through tonight.  An addition 3” of water is possible today – flood warnings are in effect.

Things begin to shift tonight as a cold front approaches the region.  There are signs that the cold front will begin to occlude.  If this occurs warm air will fill in behind the front and the freezing levels will not drop as low as hoped.

The cold/occluded front is expected to pass east of the mountains Sunday morning dropping freezing levels to 5000’ or possibly 4500’.  Expect mixed rain and snow in the base are of Stevens Pass through most of tomorrow.  There is still a winter storm watch in effect for the mountain passes for tomorrow.   Snow dances can commence.    

Long Range:  Remnant mixed rain and snow showers will linger into Monday with dry and cooler weather developing Tuesday-Thursday.  Long range models are starting to develop another frontal system late next week with the rain vs. snow game starting again.   

Precipitation ending at 4am:

Today’s 24hr Water = +2   Snow = 0 

Tomorrow’s 24hr Water =  +75  Snow =  2-5

Trend and Timing:
Heavy rain will continue for most of the day.   There will be a slight break after sunset tonight with mixed rain and snow beginning around midnight tonight and continuing through most of tomorrow.  Rain/snow line will be around 4500’.  


24hr temperature ending at 4 am tomorrow: 
Low: 34    High: 50
Freezing level: 7000’ dropping 4500.'

Trends and Timing:
Surface temperatures will top out near 500f  today.  Temperatures begin to fall to near freezing early tomorrow morning.   Freezing levels are not expected to drop below 4000’ until late Monday night or early Tuesday morning.

 
24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4 am tomorrow:
Base: 5-15 WSW  gusty
Ridge Top: 10-20 WSW   

Trend and Timing:
Strong gusty winds will continue through tomorrow afternoon.



JM

October 30, 2015

+160" of Snow Predicted

 Mt Rainer could get a ton of snow out of this impressive storm.  NOAA predictes 164".

http://unofficialnetworks.com/2015/10/epic-alert-164-of-snow-forecasted-for-mt-rainier



Storm/snow update


Never a dull moment. 

Today fresh models now have Sunday’s cold front slowing its approach.  This will likely allow freezing levels to be +- 5000’ into Sunday.    So, the trend now is still some snow Sunday/ Monday but the amounts are decreasing.   With the ground so warm and saturated, and the freezing  levels remaining on the cusp, it will be interesting how much snow actually sticks.   There is talk of a winter advisory for the mountain Passes on Sunday.  Time will tell.

As usual, I will be keeping a close eye on this storm as it develops through the weekend.  
Enjoy.

JM

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day:  0830 Friday

The Snapshot:  Heavy rain and wind will be the game through late Saturday night, snow possible on Sunday, dry and colder next week.

The Science:  This morning’s radar is lit up with heavy rain and high winds approaching Cascade Mountains. The leading edge of the approaching warm front is expected to pass over the Cascade Crest around noon or so today.  Rain will intensify and temperatures will rise with the passing of the front.    The Puget Sound Convergence Zone will also play a part in the precipitation and wind intensity tonight and tomorrow.    

Sunday snow.  Timing is everything. Models are having a difficult time agreeing on the timing of the cold front expected to swing through on Sunday.  If freezing levels begin to fall early Sunday morning, then Stevens could see over a foot of snow on the ground Monday morning.  The mountains above 5000’ could receive +-2’.  Other models have the cold front passing the over the mountains late Sunday afternoon/evening with rain turning to snow later in the day.  Either way, there should be some snow left on the ground at or below 4000’ on Monday morning.  

Long Range:  The action ends on Monday with dry and cooler weather expected for most of next week. 

Precipitation ending at 4am:

Today’s 24hr Water = +-2”    Snow = 0 

Tomorrow’s 24hr Water = +-2  Snow = 0

Trend and Timing:
Rain increase today and continues through early Sunday morning, snow on Sunday.


24hr temperature ending at 4 am tomorrow: 
Low: 40   High: 50
Freezing level: +7000.'

Trends and Timing:
Freezing levels will rise above 7000’ today.   Temperatures will remain above 320f  through early Sunday morning.  

 
24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4 am tomorrow:
Base: 5-15 gust to +-20
Ridge Top: 10-20 gust +-40  

Trend and Timing:
A high wind advisory is in effect for the mountains.  Ridge top wind gust could top 50mph this afternoon.  Winds will diminish tonight and kick back in tomorrow.



JM

October 29, 2015

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day: 0800 Thursday

The Snapshot:  Rain diminishes to scattered showers today, high winds and heavy rain begins tomorrow and continues through Sunday.  There may be a few inches of snow left on the ground for the Monday commute.  Dry and cold next week.

The Science:   The games begin tomorrow morning when the first of several closely packed fronts plow into the Cascade Mountains.  The winds will strengthen today as the pressure drops and gradients tighten. The first warm front is scheduled to arrive early tomorrow morning with strong westerly flow and heavy rain. Another front from the SW joins the action Saturday evening intensifying the rain even further. Then on Sunday a cold front swings through from the NW dropping freezing levels to +-4000’ and possibly leaving a few inches of snow by early Monday morning.  

Long Range:   Monday – Thursday of next week will be dry and mostly clear under cool northerly flow.  Low temperatures could dip into the low to middle 20’early next week.  Good snowmaking weather. 

Precipitation ending at 4am:

Today’s 24hr Water = >.25”   Snow = 0 

Tomorrow’s 24hr Water = 1-2”   Snow = 0

Trend and Timing:
Scattered showers today with the main show arriving early tomorrow morning.

Storm totals calculate out to be +5” of rain through Sunday.   With some luck and good timing with the arrival of Sunday’s cold front, there could be 2-4” of snow in the base area on Monday morning.


24hr temperature ending at 4 am tomorrow: 
Low: 38    High: 42
Freezing level: 6000’ rising

Trends and Timing:
The temperature will rise with freezing levels topping 8000’ tomorrow afternoon.  Temperatures will remain well above freezing until Sunday afternoon/evening.

 
24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4am tomorrow:
Base: 5-10 W
Ridge Top: 10-20 W

Trend and Timing:
Westerly winds begin to strengthen today.  20-40mph sustained wind speeds will be possible tomorrow through early Saturday morning.



JM

October 28, 2015

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day: 0800 Wednesday

The Snapshot:   Rain begins today with a series of strong storms poised to hit the PNW through the weekend.   Snow will be confined to the high country above 6000’ today

The Science:  This morning’s radar has a cold front pushing a band of moisture on to the west slopes of the mountains.  This system is expected to weaken as it drifts over the Cascade Crest later today.  Tomorrow will be relatively quiet with a progressive onshore flow pattern bringing heavy rain and high winds to Stevens Pass Friday.  Friday’s strong warm front will push snow levels above +-7000’, so no snow is expected.  Several embedded frontal systems will keep the rain pumping through late Sunday.   

Weekend rain totals from 4am Friday through 4pm Sunday could exceed 5”.

Long Range:    A cooler and drier airmass drops in from the north early next week.   Freezing levels will likely drop below 4000’ but with little precipitation.   There will be a chance of some light snow on the tail end of this storm cycle late Sunday night or early Monday morning.  


Precipitation ending at 4am:

Today’s 24hr Water = .5    Snow = 0 

Tomorrow’s 24hr Water = >.25  Snow = 0

Trend and Timing:
Rain begins this morning and tapers off tomorrow.  Spotty showers through tomorrow with heavy rain starting early Friday morning.


24hr temperature ending at 4am tomorrow: 
Low: 36   High: 42
Freezing level: 6000.'

Trends and Timing:
Temperatures will hold steady around +-400f for the next few days.  Freezing levels will rise as the weekend storms approach.


 
24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4am tomorrow:
Base: 0-5 E
Ridge Top: 5-10 ESE

Trend and Timing:
Weak easterly flow will shift westerly tonight and strengthen on Friday.  High wind advisories are beginning to develop for the weekend storms.



JM

October 27, 2015

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

We are heading into quite a stormy period.  Rain begins tomorrow with some high mountain snow.  A strong storm hits the PNW on Friday with heavy rain (+5”) and high winds (40+mph), freezing levels will be high +-8000’.

I will tackle the storm details for the weekend with fresh model data tomorrow.   Tune in.

JM    

October 26, 2015

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day: 0900 Monday

The Snapshot:  It was exciting to see the dusting of snow in the high country this morning. The rain will end today, mostly dry tomorrow, rain returns on Wednesday, with heavy precipitation possible by the weekend.

The Science:  The rain will fizzle away today as an upper-level ridge drifts through the region.  Tomorrow will be mostly dry with some sun breaks. 

Things get interesting on Wednesday when the first of a series of storms begins to track through the Pacific NW.  A low-pressure cell developing off the Southern BC coast during the next few days will act like a gear that directs the storm track into the region.  The jet stream has shifted north and will entrain a ton of moisture, strengthen the wind pressure gradients and allow cooler air into the mix.   

Long Range:  Mountain snow?  Perhaps around 6000’on Wednesday/Thursday.  Freezing levels rise to +-8000’ over the weekend as a subtropical plume of moisture enters the area – i.e. heavy rain likely.  The PNW seasonal rain/snow machine will remain very active into early next week.  Stay tuned.    

JM

October 23, 2015

And Then Came Patricia

The strongest hurricane on record getting poised to hit Mexico.

http://www.krem.com/story/news/world/2015/10/23/hurricane-patricia-strongest-ever-measured/74446334/

JM

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

The Snapshot:  This beautiful fall weather will last through Saturday.  Rain starts on Sunday, dry Tuesday.  Then things get interesting.

The Science: While Cat 3 Hurricane Olaf is churning up the winds and the waters to the south, the jet stream is beginning to shift north and pull in some cooler air.  Couple this with this critical time of year, weather geeks are surely sitting on the edge of their seats.  There is some very interesting movement happening in the North Pacific Atmosphere.  Cliff Mass is honing in on the same thing: http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/

Yesterday’s forecast is still on track with beautiful dry and clear weather through Saturday with rain entering the scene on Sunday/Monday. 


Things get interesting on Wednesday when the storm track takes aim at the PNW. This is pretty far out to get swayed by details that will surely change, but; long range models show a large low-pressure system strengthening over the North Pacific waters next week.  This storm system has the potential to usher in the season’s first round of heavy precipitation.  Rain will be the moisture type for Stevens Pass with freezing levels 6500’ and higher for this first round.   However, cold air filtering in from the Bearing Sea later in the week indicates a seasonal shift to the weather pattern.   As Cliff Mass alludes to in his blog, this is typically late October early November seasonal shifts.  A promising sign that things are changing as they should be, winter is approaching.        

JM

October 22, 2015

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day: 13:00 Thursday

The Snapshot:  Dry and mostly clear through Sunday; rain Sunday and Monday with a return to dry weather for the remainder of next week. 

The Science:   The dry and stable airmass perched over the region will continue to provide beautiful fall weather through most of the upcoming weekend.  A storm tracking into Oregon will spin bands of moisture north late Sunday and Monday for a few days of potential rain.  High pressure returns on Tuesday for a return to dry and sunny weather.  Low temperatures will struggle to drop below freezing with highs near 50for the next several days.


Long Range: There is something interesting worth watching.  Hurricane/ Cyclone Olaf southeast of Hawaii is expected to track NE through the weekend entering the Pacific coastal waters early next week.  If this develops as models suggest, a strong post-tropical depression could push the storm track, and a bunch of moisture, north.  This is really far out to have much confidence, but well worth keeping and eye on. 

JM  

October 21, 2015

The Science and Art of Avalanche Forecasting

A nice video to get our minds back into snow/weather and avalanches.


http://www.outsideonline.com/2027456/bdtv-episode-2-forecaster?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=facebookpost




JM

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day: 10:00 Wednesday

The Snapshot:  Stevens Pass will remain dry with some high clouds today; clear tonight with periods of clouds for the remainder of the week.   Temperatures will begin to fall closer to seasonal norms with highs in the mid to upper 40’s and early morning lows near 320 .    

The Science:  The high stratus layer of clouds passing over is due to weak system brushing the northwest corner of the state.  The airmass will remain mostly dry with clearing skies tonight.  Cooler northerly flow will allow temperatures to dip just below freezing during the early morning hours with good day time recovery. 

Long Range:  With the exception of a weak system passing through on Sunday, high pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern into early next week.    


JM

October 20, 2015

US Rain Forecast for the This Week


Check out this week's crazy precipitaiton forecast.  

Starting on Wednesday when two ingredients will get stirred up over the region. The first is a tropical depression spinning in the Gulf of Mexico that will send moisture streaming into the region. The other is a low pressure system currently working across the Southwest.


October 19, 2015

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day: 11:00 Monday

The Snapshot:  Intermittent rain showers today with a drying trend in the works for the remainder of the week.

The Science:  A few remaining bands of moisture will make their way along the west slopes of the Cascades today.  High pressure strengthening along the western coastal waters will bring mostly dry weather to Stevens Pass for the remainder of the week.   The temperatures will remain on the mild side with highs in the 50’s and lows in the upper 30’s.

Long Range:  Rain returns to the forecast discussion for the weekend as another series of storms begins to track toward the PNW.  

JM


October 17, 2015

Weekend Weather Brief

The high pressure developing off the coast of California is expected to drift north and strengthen during the upcoming week.  This will push most of the incoming weather north into Canada and Alaska.  Temperatures will also remain 10-15degress above seasonal norms.  I guess will have to endure some more of the amazing fall weather.

Jm  

October 15, 2015

Weather and Climate Speak

Weather Talk.
El Nino is showing its effects on the PNW region as the fall season progresses towards winter.  As expected during this time of year, low pressure systems are brewing in the waters out yonder.  These weather systems are large with their southern borders reaching well into the warm Hawaiian waters.   This current low pressure cell is tracking north into Alaska while the Jet Stream under cuts the flow from the south.  This effect will drive warm air and moisture toward the northwest for the next 4-10 days. 

   
Climate Talk.
El Nino data shows that the ocean is getting close to replicating the 1997-98 conditions.    Stevens Pass received 466” of snow during the 97/98 season.  Let’s take a closer look at that year.  

Here is the snowfall breakdown for the 1997/98 ski season:
November = 46”
December= 76”
January= 200”
February = 72”
March = 62”
April = 10”

The data shows a nice snowy period from late December through mid-February.  

No El Nino is created equal, but as all weather and climate forecasts are based on historical outcomes, then this is the best comparison that we have to date.  So while we wait for the snow to arrive, enjoy the amazing fall weather. 


JM

October 14, 2015

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day: 13:00 Tuesday

The Snapshot:  Sunshine and dry weather will finish out the week.  Rain enters the scene for the weekend.   

The Science:  Strengthening pressure gradients will produce warm and dry weather over the PNW for the next few days.   A large low-pressure system developing in the Gulf of Alaska will track north allowing a storm track to take aim at the northwest starting on Saturaday. 

Long Range:   Rain will continue to be in the forecast through early next week.    Freezing levels will remain above 6000’ through the middle of next week - so no snow will be likely.


Precipitation ending at 4am:

Today’s 24hr Water = 0    Snow = 0 

Tomorrow’s 24hr Water = 0  Snow =  0

Trend and Timing:
Dry through early Saturday morning.


24hr temperature ending at 4 am tomorrow: 
Low: 32   High: 50
Freezing level: +-7500'

Trends and Timing:
Clear skies will allow early morning temps to dip close to freezing.  Seasonally warm temperatures will continue through early next week.

 
24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4am tomorrow:
Base: 0-10 E
Ridge Top: 5-10 E  

Trend and Timing:
East flow will strengthen today and continue through Saturday morning.



JM

October 12, 2015

This Week in Weather

Look for another amazing week of warm, dry fall weather as high pressure strengthens through the week.  Another low-pressure system building in the Eastern Pacific will bring the possibility of more rain to the PNW by the weekend.  

JM

October 9, 2015

Test - MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST


Hi - I am just trying some new layout design to help make this blog read easier.  Let me know what you think.  I will likely be changing it up in the next few weeks.

If you have suggestions - font color, background.... bring it.

Think Snow.

JM

Testing new design

test test  test test

October 8, 2015

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day: 13:00 Thursday

The Snapshot:  Dry with some partial clearing this afternoon and evening.  Rain returns tomorrow afternoon with moderate to heavy rain expected for the weekend.    

The Science:  A weak upper-level ridge will drift east this afternoon and evening.  The next frontal system will begin to spread rain inland tomorrow with a strong cold front bringing heavier rain on Saturday.  Freezing levels briefly dip to +-5500’ early Sunday morning that could leave a bit of the white stuff on the upper ridges.    Storm totals from tomorrow noon through midnight Sunday could exceed +2” of rain. 

Long Range:  More rain is expected on Monday.  The middle of next week appears to be relatively dry with another wet system beginning to take shape on Thursday/Friday

4 am to 4 am Precipitation:

Today’s 24hr Water = lt .10    Snow = 0   

Tomorrow’s 24hr Water = .25    Snow = 0

Timing:
Light rain is expected to reach the mountains around noon tomorrow.  The rain intensifies on Saturday.


4 am to 4 am Temperatures: 
Today’s Low: 40   High: 60
Today’s Freezing level: 8-10,000’

Trends and Timing:
Surface temperatures will continue to be on the mild side until the cold front passes sometime late Saturday night or early Sunday morning.

 
4 am to 4 am Winds:
Base: 0-5 WSW
Ridge Top:  0- 10 WSW

Timing:
Winds shift SW tomorrow and strengthen through the weekend.   Gusty front winds can be anticipated.


JM

El Nino Report

El Nino Update

The Climate Prediction Center monthly El Nino update just arrived.  No surprises or significant changes from last months.

 For full report go to: 


Summary:
There is an approximately 95% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, gradually weakening through spring 2016.”

Sea water temperatures continue to increase along equatorial range with a +-6c high temperature. All models surveyed predict El Niño to continue into the Northern Hemisphere through spring 2016, and all multi-model averages predict a peak in late fall/early winter.  The forecaster consensus unanimously favors a strong El Niño…

All models trend to a decreasing El Nino late winter early spring.  This could equate to a better chance of spring snowfall.    




October 7, 2015

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day: 0800 Wednesday

The Snapshot:  Rain has begun to spread inland this morning, it will taper off tomorrow with more rain and wind expected over the weekend.  

The Science:  A well organized low-pressure system spinning in the North Pacific waters will push a series of frontal systems through the PNW Mountains for the next several days.  A weak upper-level high-pressure ridge disrupts the flow tomorrow and Friday for a few days of relatively dry weather.  A cold front enters the scene on Saturday with heavier rain and freezing levels dropping to around 6000’.  Isobars tighten late Saturday so watch for high ridge top winds through the night.   

Long Range:  Next week will start with more rain and rising temperatures.  High pressure is expected to strengthen through the middle of next week for a return to dry and sunny weather.  

Precipitation ending at 4am:

Today’s 24hr Water = .5   Snow =  0

Tomorrow’s 24hr Water = .10  Snow = 0

Trend and Timing:
Rain begins to taper off just after midnight tonight.  Mostly dry tomorrow with some lingering showers in the morning.


24hr temperature ending at 4am tomorrow: 
Low:  42  High: 55
Freezing level: 8000’

Trends and Timing:
Temperatures will remain on the mild side through Saturday morning.

 
24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4am tomorrow:
Base: 0-5 W
Ridge Top: 0-10 WSW  

Trend and Timing:
Light westerly flow today; winds shifts easterly tomorrow.


JM

0800 Thurs March 28th, No ABS