8:00 am Start for Friday, January 1st

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day: 0630 Thursday

The Snapshot:  Wonderful clear and crisp conditions on the mountain this morning.  We will say goodbye to the 2015 with clear and cold weather.

The Science:  High pressure will dominate the weather pattern through the weekend. 

Long Range:  Long term models can’t agree on whether to bring warmer SW flow with a chance of precipitation into the region on Monday, or keep the splitting effect of the high-pressure ridge.  So, we will have to wait and see what wins out over the next few days.  Happy New Year.

Precipitation ending at 4 am: Today’s 24hr Water = 0   Snow =  0 Tomorrow’s 24hr Water =  0  Snow = 0 Trend and Timing: Dry through the weekend.

24hr temperature ending at 4 am tomorrow:  Low: 10 High: 18 Freezing level: 500’ -1000.' Trends and Timing: This morning may be the coldest temperatures of this week.  Temperatures will slowly begin to climb during the next 2-4 days.

24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4 am tomorrow: Base: 0-5 E Ridge Top: 5-10 E Trend and Timing: East flow will continue through at least Sunday.

jM

8:00 Start, Thursday, December 31

NO ABS.

Happy New Years Eve!!

-253

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day: 0600 Wednesday

The Snapshot:  Clear and dry weather will last for the remainder of the week.

The Science:   With the exception of valley fog, this morning’s radar has most of the high cloud cover clearing out.  A cold, dry, stagnant air mass will settle over the region for a prolonged dry weather pattern lasting well into next week.

Long Range:  The first week of January will be warmer but remain dry and clear.

Precipitation ending at 4 am: Today’s 24hr Water = 0   Snow = 0   Tomorrow’s 24hr Water = 0  Snow = 0 Trend and Timing: 0

24hr temperature ending at 4 am tomorrow:  Low: 14 High: 22 Freezing level:  +- 1000.' Trends and Timing: Surface temperatures will remain in the mid to upper teens.

24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4 am tomorrow: Base: 0-5 E Ridge Top: 0-10 E Trend and Timing: East flow will continue as well.

jM

8:00 start tue dec 29th no abs

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day: 0730 Tuesday

The Snapshot:  Dry and cloudy today.  Cold and dry weather with a potential valley inversion layer developing and persisting into the New Year.

The Science:  A low-pressure system tracking southeast into Oregon today will keep the skies mostly cloudy at Stevens Pass.  High pressure will strengthen over the PNW for clearing, cool, and dry weather developing for the upcoming weekend.  Cold air will continue to pour into the eastern basin through the next few days keeping surface temperatures low as well as producing a strong valley inversion layer.  The inversion layer should be low, and east enough to keep Stevens Pass mostly clear for the final days of the year. 

Long Range:  High pressure will dominate the weather pattern into early next week.  There are signs of the high pressure breaking down around Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.  

Precipitation ending at 4 am: Today’s 24hr Water = .10   Snow = 0   Tomorrow’s 24hr Water =  0  Snow =  0 Trend and Timing: Some very light snow showers will be possible today, dry for the remainder of the week.

24hr temperature ending at 4 am tomorrow:  Low:14  High: 22 Freezing level: 500.' Trends and Timing: Temperatures will remain cool.

24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4 am tomorrow: Base: 0-5 E Ridge Top:   Trend and Timing: East flow will develop today and strengthen as the week progresses.

jM

8:00 am Start Tue Dec 29th no abs

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day: 0600 Monday

The Snapshot:  The snow has pretty much ended for the day.  A drying trend begins today and will likely last through the upcoming weekend.

The Science:  The atmosphere will begin to stabilize as high pressure begins to build along the NW coast.  A few weakening systems passing south of Stevens Pass will keep snow showers possible.  A cold, dry airmass descending from the north will lower freezing levels to < 1000’ for the next few days.  

  

Long Range:  The high-pressure system will continue to strengthen through the week with dry, clear and warmer conditions finishing out 2015. 

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Precipitation ending at 4 am: Today’s 24hr Water = .10   Snow =  trace   Tomorrow’s 24hr Water =  0  Snow = 0 Trend and Timing: A few light snow showers will still be possible this morning with dry conditions developing tonight.

24hr temperature ending at 4 am tomorrow:  Low: 16 High: 28 Freezing level: 2500’ - 1000.' Trends and Timing: Temperatures will fall through the next 24-36 hrs.

24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4 am tomorrow: Base: 0-5 NE Ridge Top: 0-5 NNE Trend and Timing: Wind will be light.

jM

8am Start time Monday, December 28, NO ABS

Here's a pit I dug today on the Gemini arm. Generally seems like a rightside up, well bonded snowpack. The 12/9 crust is now down about 168cm's, and has some facets on top of it but that layer is non-reactive right now. The temperature gradient is not very steep (read: generally rounding) but definitely cold.

-253

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day: 0630  Sunday

The Snapshot:  Light snow will continue through tomorrow with a few more inches possible.   A drying trend begins Tuesday and will likely last into the New Year.    

The Science: A cold front associated with weak low-pressure trough will roll into the State today bringing some snow to the Stevens Pass for the next 12-24hrs.  Another system will brush the SW corner of the state on Wednesday with little effect for Stevens.   A cold air mass will also settle into the eastern basin while warm air advection raises freezing levels west of the crest.  Therefore, watch for a temperature inversion with a fog layer during the second half of the week.

Long Range:  A strengthening ridge of high-pressure will confine most of the moisture to the coastal regions starting on Tuesday and likely lasting into early next week.

Precipitation ending at 4 am: Today’s 24hr Water =  +.25  Snow = 3-5   Tomorrow’s 24hr Water = .10   Snow = 1-2  Trend and Timing: Light snow begins this afternoon with snow showers persisting through tomorrow night.

24hr temperature ending at 4 am tomorrow:  Low:  14  High: 26 Freezing level: 1000’E -3000’ W Trends and Timing: There will be good daytime temperature recovery today with lows dipping in the lower teens again tomorrow morning.

24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4 am tomorrow: Base: 0-5 E Ridge Top: 5-10 ESE  shifting W Trend and Timing: Light easterly winds today shifting westerly tomorrow.

jM

8am Start time Sunday December 27 and Stats:

The last day that we recorded 0" of new snow overnight was December 17th. If you ignore that day it has snowed every other day in December since the 1st!

We've gotten 134" in December, 62" in the past 8 days.

Looking back over the monthly snow totals for the past 70 years, it seems like most seasons with good Decembers also had good Januarys, and typically drier Februarys. In 90% of the seasons with 130" or more in December we have exceeded our annual average snowfall, usually by a lot.

The last time the temperature got above 25 at Brooks was the 20th at noon.

We threw 411 charges in the last three days of control work.

We have done 6 days of a/c with explosives and a couple more of ski cutting.

Looks like a dryish finish to 2015, but rest up for January.

-253

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day: 0630 Saturday

The Snapshot:  Happy Boxing day.  Cold and dry today with clouds developing this afternoon; light snow showers tomorrow, dry and clear on Monday.  

The Science:   Doppler radar shows a cold, dry airmass with high cirrus clouds starting to stream over the North Central Cascade Mountains this morning.  A weakening low-pressure trough will swing over the area tonight producing light snow shower through tomorrow.  The clouds and moisture clear out on Monday as pressure rises over the region.

Long Range:  Strengthening high pressure will start blocking incoming storms staring on Monday.  Cold and dry weather can be anticipated for most of the final week of the year.  

Precipitation ending at 4 am: Today’s 24hr Water = .25   Snow = 1-3   Tomorrow’s 24hr Water = +.25    Snow = 2-4 Trend and Timing: Light snow will begin late tonight and continue through tomorrow.

24hr temperature ending at 4 am tomorrow:  Low: 12 High: 18 Freezing level: +-500’ Trends and Timing: A cold air mass will remain over the mountains for low temperatures through the weekend.

24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4 am tomorrow: Base: 0-5 E Ridge Top: 0-10 SE Trend and Timing: Surface winds will shift easterly today while winds aloft remain southerly.

jM

8am start time, Saturday, December 26

NO ABS.

The tap appears to be shut off for the moment. Get ready to shift gears to big crowds and sunny days.

-253

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day:  0600 Christmas Day 

The Snapshot:  Light snow showers are ending today, dry tonight and tomorrow.  A pattern change is in the works for generally drier weather for the last week of 2015.

The Science:   That amazing storm cycle dumped close to 200” of snow, built a 72” base on the lower mountain and left 90” on the upper mountain – not a bad start to the season. 

The storms will end today as a high-pressure ridge building off of the NW coast drifts east.  Therefore, dry and cold weather will begin today and last through most of the weekend.  A system approaches on Sunday afternoon but will likely split apart as it reaches the mountains. 

Long Range:  High pressure rebuilds on Monday, a few weak systems move through on Wednesday with mostly dry and warmer weather greeting the New Year.

Precipitation ending at 4 am: Today’s 24hr Water = .10   Snow = 0-2   Tomorrow’s 24hr Water = 0    Snow = 0 Trend and Timing: Light snow showers this morning with dry conditions developing tonight and tomorrow.

24hr temperature ending at 4 am tomorrow:  Low: 14  High: 22 Freezing level: 1500’ – 500.' Trends and Timing: Early morning temperatures will fall into the teens tomorrow with daytime temps recovering to the lower 20’s.

24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4 am tomorrow: Base: 0-5 N shifting E Ridge Top:  0-10  NW Trend and Timing: Light NW winds will slowly shift easterly over the next 24hrs.

jM

WEATHER UPDATE

 Sorry for non-forecast today.  An epic day at Stevens Pass.

The next 3-7 days will be mostly dry and cold as high pressure builds over the region.

Enjoy the sunshine.  A full forecast will be posted tomorrow morning.

Happy Holidays All.

jM

8:00am Start Time Friday December 24th w/ ABS

Chaos on the Highway

US 2 is closed, when I came through at 2:45 they were holding traffic at Merritt on the east side and Scenic on the West side. Tell em' you do avalanche control at the ski area and have them call Mike Stanford on the radio if needed. Get here when you can and we'll do our best.

-253

6:15 Start Thursday, December 24th

I'm dreaming of a white, explosive Christmas.

-253

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day:  10:30 am Wednesday

The Snapshot:  Steady snow will continue through tomorrow morning.   Intermittent snow shower can be expected to linger into Christmas day.  

The Science:  A low-pressure system slowly drifting east will keep the snow pumping through tomorrow morning.  The atmosphere will remain unstable under cool NW flow into Christmas Day, keeping snow showers with clear periods possible.  

Long Range:  The overall pattern begins to change on Friday as a high-pressure ridge builds along the PNW coast.  The weekend will be dry and partly clear.

Precipitation ending at 4 am: Today’s 24hr Water = .75-1   Snow = 8-12   Tomorrow’s 24hr Water = .25- .5  Snow = 3-5 Trend and Timing: Snow will begin to diminish after 7 am tomorrow morning.

24hr temperature ending at 4 am tomorrow:  Low: 22 High: 26 Freezing level:  2500’   1000.' Trends and Timing: Temperatures will slowly fall through the next 24-36 hrs.

24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4 am tomorrow: Base: 0-5 WSW  Ridge Top:  5-15 WSW Trend and Timing: Winds will be light and WSW through Friday morning.

jM

6:15 Start wed Dec 23 abs yes

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day: 9:30am  Tuesday

The Snapshot:  More snow tonight and tomorrow; dry, clear and cold for Christmas day and the start of the weekend.

The Science:  A cold front, pushed by strong NW flow, will bring the next round of snow to the Cascade Mountains tonight and tomorrow.  Snow showers will continue through Thursday morning and taper off by the afternoon.    

Long Range:  There will be a well-deserved break in the snow Friday and Saturday as a high-pressure ridge drifts over the region.  Cold air sinking in from Canada could bring single digit lows on Friday and then again on Saturday morning.

Precipitation ending at 4 am: Today’s 24hr Water = .25-.5   Snow = 2-5   Tomorrow’s 24hr Water = .75-1    Snow = 8-12 Trend and Timing: Snow is expected to start after 7 pm tonight and continue through early Thursday morning.

24hr temperature ending at 4 am tomorrow:  Low: 18 High: 26 Freezing level: 3000’ -  1000.' Trends and Timing: Freezing levels will fall to around 1000’ by early tomorrow morning.

24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4 am tomorrow: Base:  0-5 E  shifting WSW Ridge Top:  0-10 E shifting WSW Trend and Timing: Weak east flow will develop today.  Winds shift W then SW tomorrow.   Expect some gusty ridge top winds tomorrow.

jM

IF YOU ARE READING THIS AND WANT TO COME IN FOR AC TUE DEC 22 PLEASE DO

8:00 start mon dec 21st abs yes

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day: 0600 Monday

The Snapshot:  Snow.  

The Science: A low-pressure trough will track through the State today keeping moderate snow showers falling the mountains.  The main energy of this system is directed towards the south-central Cascades with Stevens Pass just on the northern edge.  Snow showers will persist through tomorrow with a strong cold front bringing the next round of significant snow to Stevens Pass on Wednesday.

Long Range:  Models begin to differ in their opinion for Christmas day and the weekend.  So for now, we will just say snow showers will be possible for the remainder of the week.

Precipitation ending at 4 am: Today’s 24hr Water = .5-.75   Snow = 6-10   Tomorrow’s 24hr Water = .25-.5   Snow =  3-5 Trend and Timing: Light snow showers for most of today.  Snow intensifies late this afternoon and evening.  Snow diminished early tomorrow morning.

24hr temperature ending at 4 am tomorrow:  Low:22  High: 26 Freezing level: +-2500.' Trends and Timing: Temperatures will remain in the mid to low 20’s through tomorrow.

24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4 am tomorrow: Base:  0-5 E shifting W Ridge Top: 5-10 E Shifting W Trend and Timing: Easterly winds will shift westerly early tomorrow morning.

jM