January 31, 2016

8am Start Monday Feb 1, NO ABS

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day: 0700 Sunday

The Snapshot: Light snow showers with a dry and clearing trend begins today.

The Science:  There are scattered showers showing up on this morning’s radar, but mainly west of the Cascade Crest.  Weak high pressure aloft coupled with unstable northwest flow will slowly end the snow showers and begin to thin the cloud cover through the next few days.

The Long Range:  The new week will start out dry under rising pressure.  A new system is expected to break through on Wednesday with high-pressure rebuilding by the end of the week.

Precipitation Ending at 4am:

Today 24hr water = .25 Snow = 0-2

Tomorrow’s 24hr water = .10 snow = trace

Trend and Timing:
The precipitation will diminish over the next 24hrs.


24hr temperature ending at 4 am tomorrow: 
                                     
Low: 20   High: 26
Freezing level: 3000’ – 1500.'

Trend and Timing:   
Temperatures will slowly fall through the next 24-36hrs. 

 
24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4 am tomorrow:
Base: 0-5 W
Ridge Top: 0-10 WNW

Trend and Timing:
Winds will remain light and westerly today.   The general flow turns NW over the next few days.




jM

January 30, 2016

8:00 start sun Jan 31st no abs

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day: 1100 Saturday

The Snapshot:  Passing snow showers today and tomorrow.   

The Science:  The atmosphere will remain cool and unstable under a westerly flow pattern.  Intermittent snow showers with clear periods can be anticipated for the remainder of the weekend.
.
The Long Range:  A drying trend begins early next week under building high pressure.

Precipitation Ending at 4am:

Today 24hr water = .25+ Snow = 2-4

Tomorrow’s 24hr water = .25  snow =  2-4

Trend and Timing:
Light snow showers today and tonight.  There will be a chance for a brief convergence period this evening.  


24hr temperature ending at 4 am tomorrow: 
                                     
Low:  22   High: 26
Freezing level: +-2500.'

Trend and Timing:   
Freezing levels will hover near 2500’ for the next few days.  Cooler air enters the scene on Monday with FL’s dropping to below 1000’.

 
24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4 am tomorrow:
Base: 0-10 W
Ridge Top: 5-10 W

Trend and Timing:
Westerly flow will remain intact through the weekend.




jM

January 29, 2016

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day: 0630 Friday

The Snapshot: 4” of new snow with a brief convergence zone overnight. Moderate snow today and tonight with another round of lesser amounts Saturday night.  

The Science:  An occluded front with a parent low centered south of the OR/WA border is making its way ashore this morning.  Radar shows heavy precipitation to our west. Moist westerly upper-level flow should bring moderate to occasionally heavy snow with lowering freezing levels to Stevens Pass today and tonight.  The Puget Sound Convergence Zone will play a factor in snow totals tonight and early tomorrow morning.  High westerly winds will also be in play with this storm.

The Long Range: Models are backing down on the amplitude of the high-pressure ridge for next week, currently showing the North Central Cascades under continued NW upper-level flow, keeping snow in the forecast. Stay tuned.    

Precipitation Ending at 4am:

Today 24hr water = .75 Snow = 6-10 + (convergence)

Tomorrow’s 24hr water = .25 snow = 2-4

Trend and Timing:
Snow should pick up after daybreak Friday morning. Steady snow showers with possible heavier snow in convergence Friday afternoon through daybreak Saturday. Moderate snow showers will continue Sunday.   
.

24hr temperature ending at 4 am tomorrow: 
                                     
Low: 22    High: 30
Freezing level: 3000’ – 2000.'

Trend and Timing:   
Snow level is currently at 3000’, with cooling behind the front, temperatures should drop further overnight into Saturday morning.  

 
24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4 am tomorrow:
Base: 5-10 W gusty
Ridge Top 10-20 W sustained with gust to 40 possible.

Trend and Timing:
Winds will pick up this morning and remain strong and gusty from the west through Saturday midday.  





DV

Call off Friday, January 29

Got 4" with wind, should be good skiing!

January 28, 2016

6:15 Start Friday January 29 ABS Yes

It switched over to snow on the upper mountain at 9:30 this am. Has been snowing in the base area for an hour or so, we'll see how tonight goes for us! Looking like more snow Friday night and Saturday. ABS yes starting tomorrow and likely thru the weekend.

-253

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day: 0700  Thursday

The Snapshot:  Heavy rain this morning, changing to snow and then tapering off.   Snow is on the docket for tomorrow and Saturday.   The wind will be a factor during the next few storms as well.

The Science: An approaching cold front will begin to lower temperatures and switch the rain to snow today.  The precipitation will then switch to showers and eventually taper off in the wake of the front. 

A low-pressure system developing offshore will drive the next round of precipitation (snow) into the region tomorrow.   Cool unstable NW flow keeping the snow falling through the weekend.

The Long Range:  Snow showers and cooler temperatures will continue into Monday.    High pressure begins to build early next week.

Precipitation Ending at 4am:

Today 24hr water = .5 Snow = 1-4

Tomorrow’s 24hr water = .75  snow = 6-8

Trend and Timing:
Rain this morning switching to snow and tapering off.   New snow arrives midmorning (+-10am) tomorrow. 


24hr temperature ending at 4 am tomorrow: 
                                     
Low:  26   High: 34
Freezing level: 5500’- 3500’

Trend and Timing:   
Freezing levels will inch downward today with freezing levels falling below 4000’ by late this afternoon.  

 
24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4 am tomorrow:
Base: 5-10 W
Ridge Top: 5-15 W gusty

Trend and Timing:
Winds shift westerly today and strengthen.  Wind advisories will be in place through Saturday. 




jM

January 27, 2016

8am start Thursday January 28 No ABS

Rain should switch to snow during the day tomorrow, could be good night skiing!

-253

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day: 0630 Wednesday

The Snapshot:  Light rain showers today, moderate rain tonight, rain turning to snow tomorrow, snow on Friday and Saturday.

The Science: Warm southwest flow will bring rain to Stevens Pass tonight and most of tomorrow.  The rain will shift to snow before it tapers off tomorrow afternoon/evening.   A low-pressure system developing off of the B.C. coast will bring heavy snow to Stevens Pass starting on Friday.  There will be periods of high westerly winds associated with these next few frontal systems.

The Long Range:  Snow will likely continue into the weekend with cooler temperatures.  Snow totals from 4 am Friday to 4 am Sunday could exceed 15”.

Precipitation Ending at 4am:

Today 24hr water = .5 Snow = 0

Tomorrow’s 24hr water = +- .75 snow = 3-6

Trend and Timing:
The main wave of moisture is expected to start after closing today.  Rain shifts to snow tomorrow afternoon and diminishes to light showers through the night.


24hr temperature ending at 4 am tomorrow: 
                                     
Low:  38   High: 45
Freezing level: 6500’  +

Trend and Timing:   
Mild temperatures will continue through tomorrow afternoon.   Freezing levels expected to fall below 4000’ late tomorrow afternoon.

 
24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4 am tomorrow:
Base: 0-5 E shifting WSW
Ridge Top: 5-10 S shifting W

Trend and Timing:
Winds will shift westerly over the next 24hrs.  Watch for strong ridge top winds tomorrow afternoon.




jM

January 26, 2016

8:00 start wed jan 27th no abs

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day: 0630 Tuesday

The Snapshot:  Snow changing to rain today, intermittent showers overnight, heavy rain on Thursday, snow on Friday.

The Science: This morning’s radar has the leading edge of the approaching warm front just entering the west slopes of the mountains; snow changing to rain can be expected to begin near daybreak.  The precipitation will turn to intermittent light showers overnight with the next stronger front hitting Stevens Pass tomorrow afternoon.    Heavy rain can be expected tomorrow night through most of Thursday with freezing levels topping out around 6500’.

The Long Range:  A cold front following the rain event Thursday afternoon/evening will likely change the rain back to snow before it comes to an end.   There is potential for snow on Friday with the weekend trending dry at the moment. 

Precipitation Ending at 4am:

Today 24hr water = .5 Snow = 0-2

Tomorrow’s 24hr water = .5  snow = 0

Trend and Timing:
Today’s precipitation could start out as snow but will switch to rain by noon or so.  Rain changes to showers late this afternoon with light showers through the night and most of tomorrow.


24hr temperature ending at 4 am tomorrow: 
                                     
Low: 28    High: 38
Freezing level: 4000’ - +5500’

Trend and Timing:   
Freezing levels should rise above the upper ridge by noon or so today. 

 
24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4 am tomorrow:
Base: 0-5 E
Ridge Top: 5-10 SSW

Trend and Timing:
Weak east flow at the surface with southerly flow aloft will continue.  A short period of gusty winds could accompany the passing of the front this afternoon.




jM

January 25, 2016

8:00 start tue jan 26th no abs

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day: 0600 Monday

The Snapshot: Enjoy the sun today because the rest of the week will be rather soggy.   Mostly rain is expected to start tomorrow and last through Thursday.   Terms such as an atmospheric river and pineapple express are being used in other weather reports around the PNW.  

The Science:  A high-pressure ridge over the region will provide abundant sunshine this morning.  Clouds roll in tonight as two strong warm and moist frontal systems roll up the coast.  The first round of rain will enter the mountains tomorrow morning with freezing levels rising ahead of the front.   There will be a break in the precipitation on Wednesday with another round of rain on Thursday.   Rain totals for the week could exceed 4”.   

The Long Range:  Cooler air with snow is developing on Friday with spotty snow showers for the weekend.  

Precipitation Ending at 4am:

Today 24hr water = 0 Snow = 0

Tomorrow’s 24hr water =  .5 snow = 0 -3

Trend and Timing:
The main event is timing out to reach the Cascade Crest around midmorning tomorrow.  There could be a bit of snow tomorrow morning before it changes to rain. 


24hr temperature ending at 4 am tomorrow: 
                                     
Low: 24   High: 36
Freezing level: 3500’ - 5500’

Trend and Timing:   
Temperatures will rise above 340f today with the aid of the sun.  Freezing levels will continue their ascent reaching 5000’ early tomorrow morning.  Temperature are expected to remain above freezing through Thursday.

 
24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4 am tomorrow:
Base: 0-5 E
Ridge Top: 0-10 S

Trend and Timing:
Weak east flow at the surface with strong southwest flow aloft will be the general wind pattern for the next few days.




jM

January 24, 2016

8am Start Monday January 25, NO ABS

Avalanche and explosives training block starts tomorrow. Finish up your knots, etc...

-253

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST


Time and Day: 0900 Sunday

The Snapshot: Light snow ending today, drying and clearing this afternoon, dry and partly sunny Monday. .

The Science: A weak cold front will move through Washington today. A high amplitude high pressure ridge will build in behind it and slowly move across the West Coast Monday and Tuesday, creating a lower level inversion in the passes and east of the crest, and sunny and warm conditions west of the crest.  

The Long Range: A strong warm front in SW oriented upper level flow will bring rain starting Tuesday afternoon. Precipitation totals for Tuesday through Thursday look to be around 2-3 inches. Transition back to cooler and snowy for the weekend.

Precipitation Ending at 4am:

Today 24hr water = >.10  Snow = 0-2

Tomorrow’s 24hr water = 0 snow = 0

Trend and Timing:
Light snow showers will end this morning as a weak cold front crosses the state mid-morning.  
24hr temperature ending at 4 am tomorrow:
Low: 26 High: 32
Freezing level: 2500’-4000’

Trend and Timing:
There will be a brief drop in temperature behind the cold front, then warming in the afternoon.
24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4 am tomorrow:
Base: 5-10 W, shifting E
Ridge Top: 10-20 WSW

Trend and Timing:
There will be moderate gusty winds with the frontal passage, then winds will calm down and shift to easterly this afternoon and over night.



DV

January 23, 2016

8:00 start Sun Jan 24th no abs

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day: 0630 Saturday

The Snapshot:   Snow, with a chance of some light rain in the mix today.   Remnant snow showers with drying tomorrow and Monday.  Rain/snow enters the scene during the middle of next week.

The Science:  A low-pressure cell tracking NE through the State today will bring another round of snow for Stevens Pass.  East-west pressure gradients will tighten this morning for some breezy easterly winds; winds then shift westerly as the low passes east of the mountains. An upper-level high-pressure ridge will build behind the low tomorrow; this will produce a few days of dry weather with cooler temperatures for the North-Central Cascades.  

The Long Range:  A strong warm front with saturated SW flow is expected to bring mostly rain on Tuesday, Wednesday and possibly Thursday.   Next weekend is trending cooler and dry. 

Precipitation Ending at 4am:

Today 24hr water = .5-.75 Snow =  4-7

Tomorrow’s 24hr water = .25  snow = 2-4

Trend and Timing:
Mixed rain and snow (mostly snow) will fall through mid-morning tomorrow.   Snow tapers off tomorrow afternoon with Monday trending dry.


24hr temperature ending at 4 am tomorrow: 
                                     
Low: 26    High: 32
Freezing level: 4000’ – 3000.'

Trend and Timing:   
Temperatures will linger around the freezing mark today and then begin to fall tonight.   East flow will help keep surface temps low for snow.

 
24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4 am tomorrow:
Base: 5-10 E gusty then shifting W
Ridge Top: 5-15 E gusty – shifting NW

Trend and Timing:
 Easterly winds will strengthen today and then shift WNW tonight.




jM

January 22, 2016

8:00 start sat jan 23rd no abs

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day: 0630 Friday

The Snapshot:  The top snow stake officially hit 100” yesterday – 100” party?   Mixed snow and rain this morning, dry tonight, snow tomorrow, dry with clearing Sunday and Monday.

The Science:  A band of moisture, ahead of an approaching cold front, will pass through the mountains this morning.  Temperatures are still on the mild side so expect a mixed bag of snow and rain.  Once the front moves east of the mountains sometime this afternoon, the snow will end and the temperatures will fall a bit.  Tonight will be mostly dry with another system lifting north tomorrow.  Temperatures should be cool enough for tomorrow’s moisture to be all snow. 

The Long Range: Sunday, Monday and likely Tuesday will be mostly dry under building high pressure. 

Precipitation Ending at 4am:

Today 24hr water = .25 Snow = 0-3

Tomorrow’s 24hr water = .25-.5   snow = 2-5

Trend and Timing:
Mixed snow and rain this morning ending this afternoon.  Tonight will be mostly dry with snow arriving tomorrow morning after 4am.


24hr temperature ending at 4 am tomorrow: 
                                     
Low: 26   High: 34
Freezing level: 5000’ – 4000’

Trend and Timing:   
Freezing levels will fall to 4000’ this afternoon in the wake of the cold front.   Cool east flow will help surface temperatures dip below 320 f. 

 
24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4 am tomorrow:
Base: 0-5 E shifting
Ridge Top: 5-15 W gusty

Trend and Timing:
Winds will shift westerly today with a short gusty period with the passing of the front.   Winds Winds will flip-flop east to west during the next few storms.




jM

0800 Thurs March 28th, No ABS