January 31, 2016
MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST
Time and Day: 0700 Sunday
The Snapshot: Light
snow showers with a dry and clearing trend begins today.
The Science: There are scattered showers showing up on this morning’s
radar, but mainly west of the Cascade Crest.
Weak high pressure aloft coupled with unstable
northwest flow will slowly end the snow showers and begin to thin the cloud
cover through the next few days.
The Long Range: The
new week will start out dry under rising pressure. A new system is expected to break through on
Wednesday with high-pressure rebuilding
by the end of the week.
Precipitation Ending at 4am:
Today 24hr water = .25 Snow = 0-2
Tomorrow’s 24hr water = .10 snow = trace
Trend and Timing:
The precipitation will diminish over
the next 24hrs.
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24hr temperature
ending at 4 am tomorrow:
Low: 20 High: 26
Freezing level: 3000’ – 1500.'
Trend and Timing:
Temperatures will slowly fall through
the next 24-36hrs.
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24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4 am tomorrow:
Base: 0-5 W
Ridge Top: 0-10 WNW
Trend and Timing:
Winds will remain light and westerly today. The general flow turns NW over the next
few days.
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jM
January 30, 2016
MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST
Time and Day: 1100 Saturday
The Snapshot: Passing snow showers today and tomorrow.
The Science: The atmosphere will remain cool and unstable under a
westerly flow pattern. Intermittent snow
showers with clear periods can be anticipated
for the remainder of the weekend.
.
The Long Range: A drying trend begins early next
week under building high pressure.
Precipitation Ending at 4am:
Today 24hr water = .25+ Snow = 2-4
Tomorrow’s 24hr water = .25 snow = 2-4
Trend and Timing:
Light snow showers today and
tonight. There will be a chance for a
brief convergence period this evening.
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24hr temperature
ending at 4 am tomorrow:
Low: 22 High:
26
Freezing level: +-2500.'
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will hover near 2500’
for the next few days. Cooler air
enters the scene on Monday with FL’s dropping to below 1000’.
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24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4 am tomorrow:
Base: 0-10 W
Ridge Top: 5-10 W
Trend and Timing:
Westerly flow will remain intact
through the weekend.
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jM
January 29, 2016
MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST
Time and Day: 0630 Friday
The Snapshot:
4” of new snow with a brief convergence zone overnight. Moderate snow today and
tonight with another round of lesser amounts Saturday night.
The Science: An occluded front with a parent low centered south of
the OR/WA border is making its way ashore this morning. Radar shows heavy
precipitation to our west. Moist westerly upper-level
flow should bring moderate to occasionally heavy snow with lowering freezing
levels to Stevens Pass today and tonight.
The Puget Sound Convergence Zone will play a factor in snow totals
tonight and early tomorrow morning. High
westerly winds will also be in play with this storm.
The Long Range: Models are backing down on the amplitude of the high-pressure ridge for next week, currently showing the North
Central Cascades under continued NW upper-level flow, keeping snow in the forecast.
Stay tuned.
Precipitation Ending at 4am:
Today 24hr water = .75 Snow = 6-10 +
(convergence)
Tomorrow’s 24hr water = .25 snow = 2-4
Trend and Timing:
Snow should
pick up after daybreak Friday morning. Steady snow showers with possible
heavier snow in convergence Friday afternoon through daybreak Saturday. Moderate
snow showers will continue Sunday.
.
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24hr temperature
ending at 4 am tomorrow:
Low: 22 High:
30
Freezing level: 3000’ – 2000.'
Trend and Timing:
Snow level is
currently at 3000’, with cooling behind the
front, temperatures should drop further overnight into Saturday
morning.
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24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4 am tomorrow:
Base: 5-10 W gusty
Ridge Top 10-20 W sustained with gust
to 40 possible.
Trend and Timing:
Winds will
pick up this morning and remain strong and gusty from the west through
Saturday midday.
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DV
January 28, 2016
6:15 Start Friday January 29 ABS Yes
It switched over to snow on the upper mountain at 9:30 this am. Has been snowing in the base area for an hour or so, we'll see how tonight goes for us! Looking like more snow Friday night and Saturday. ABS yes starting tomorrow and likely thru the weekend.
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MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST
Time and Day: 0700
Thursday
The Snapshot: Heavy rain this
morning, changing to snow and then tapering off. Snow is on the docket for tomorrow and
Saturday. The wind will be a factor during the next few storms as well.
The Science: An
approaching cold front will begin to lower temperatures and switch the rain to
snow today. The precipitation will then switch
to showers and eventually taper off in the wake of the front.
A low-pressure system developing offshore
will drive the next round of precipitation (snow) into the region
tomorrow. Cool unstable NW flow keeping
the snow falling through the weekend.
The Long Range: Snow
showers and cooler temperatures will continue into Monday. High
pressure begins to build early next week.
Precipitation Ending at 4am:
Today 24hr water = .5 Snow = 1-4
Tomorrow’s 24hr water = .75 snow = 6-8
Trend and Timing:
Rain this morning switching to snow
and tapering off. New snow arrives
midmorning (+-10am) tomorrow.
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24hr temperature
ending at 4 am tomorrow:
Low: 26 High:
34
Freezing level: 5500’- 3500’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will inch downward
today with freezing levels falling below 4000’ by late this afternoon.
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24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4 am tomorrow:
Base: 5-10 W
Ridge Top: 5-15 W gusty
Trend and Timing:
Winds shift westerly today and strengthen. Wind advisories will be in place through
Saturday.
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jM
January 27, 2016
8am start Thursday January 28 No ABS
Rain should switch to snow during the day tomorrow, could be good night skiing!
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MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST
Time and Day: 0630 Wednesday
The Snapshot: Light rain showers today, moderate rain tonight, rain
turning to snow tomorrow, snow on Friday and Saturday.
The Science: Warm
southwest flow will bring rain to Stevens Pass tonight and most of tomorrow. The rain will shift to snow before it tapers
off tomorrow afternoon/evening. A low-pressure system developing off of the
B.C. coast will bring heavy snow to Stevens Pass starting on Friday. There will be periods of high westerly winds
associated with these next few frontal systems.
The Long Range: Snow will likely continue into
the weekend with cooler temperatures. Snow totals from 4 am Friday to 4 am Sunday
could exceed 15”.
Precipitation Ending at 4am:
Today 24hr water = .5 Snow = 0
Tomorrow’s 24hr water = +- .75 snow = 3-6
Trend and Timing:
The main wave of moisture is expected
to start after closing today. Rain
shifts to snow tomorrow afternoon and diminishes to light showers through the
night.
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24hr temperature
ending at 4 am tomorrow:
Low: 38 High:
45
Freezing level: 6500’ +
Trend and Timing:
Mild temperatures will continue
through tomorrow afternoon. Freezing
levels expected to fall below 4000’ late tomorrow afternoon.
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24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4 am tomorrow:
Base: 0-5 E shifting WSW
Ridge Top: 5-10 S shifting W
Trend and Timing:
Winds will shift westerly over the
next 24hrs. Watch for strong ridge top winds tomorrow afternoon.
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jM
January 26, 2016
MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST
Time and Day: 0630 Tuesday
The Snapshot: Snow changing to rain today, intermittent showers overnight, heavy rain on
Thursday, snow on Friday.
The Science: This
morning’s radar has the leading edge of the approaching warm front just
entering the west slopes of the mountains; snow changing to rain can be
expected to begin near daybreak. The precipitation
will turn to intermittent light showers overnight with the next stronger front hitting
Stevens Pass tomorrow afternoon. Heavy
rain can be expected tomorrow night
through most of Thursday with freezing levels topping out around 6500’.
The Long Range: A cold front following the rain
event Thursday afternoon/evening will likely
change the rain back to snow before it comes to
an end. There is potential for snow
on Friday with the weekend trending dry at the moment.
Precipitation Ending at 4am:
Today 24hr water = .5 Snow = 0-2
Tomorrow’s 24hr water = .5 snow = 0
Trend and Timing:
Today’s precipitation could start out
as snow but will switch to rain by noon or so. Rain changes to showers late this afternoon
with light showers through the night and most of tomorrow.
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24hr temperature
ending at 4 am tomorrow:
Low: 28 High:
38
Freezing level: 4000’ - +5500’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels should rise above the
upper ridge by noon or so today.
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24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4 am tomorrow:
Base: 0-5 E
Ridge Top: 5-10 SSW
Trend and Timing:
Weak east flow at the surface with
southerly flow aloft will continue. A
short period of gusty winds could accompany the passing of the front this
afternoon.
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jM
January 25, 2016
MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST
Time and Day: 0600 Monday
The Snapshot: Enjoy
the sun today because the rest of the week will be rather soggy. Mostly
rain is expected to start tomorrow and last through Thursday. Terms such as an atmospheric river and pineapple
express are being used in other weather
reports around the PNW.
The Science: A high-pressure
ridge over the region will provide abundant sunshine this morning. Clouds roll in tonight as two strong warm and
moist frontal systems roll up the coast. The first round of rain will enter the
mountains tomorrow morning with freezing levels rising ahead of the front. There will be a break in the precipitation on
Wednesday with another round of rain on Thursday. Rain totals for the week could exceed 4”.
The Long Range: Cooler air with snow is
developing on Friday with spotty snow showers for the weekend.
Precipitation Ending at 4am:
Today 24hr water = 0 Snow = 0
Tomorrow’s 24hr water = .5 snow = 0 -3
Trend and Timing:
The main event is timing out to reach
the Cascade Crest around midmorning tomorrow.
There could be a bit of snow tomorrow morning before it changes to
rain.
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24hr temperature
ending at 4 am tomorrow:
Low: 24 High: 36
Freezing level: 3500’ - 5500’
Trend and Timing:
Temperatures will rise above 340f
today with the aid of the sun. Freezing
levels will continue their ascent reaching 5000’ early tomorrow morning. Temperature are
expected to remain above freezing through Thursday.
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24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4 am tomorrow:
Base: 0-5 E
Ridge Top: 0-10 S
Trend and Timing:
Weak east flow at the surface with strong
southwest flow aloft will be the general wind pattern for the next few days.
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jM
January 24, 2016
8am Start Monday January 25, NO ABS
Avalanche and explosives training block starts tomorrow. Finish up your knots, etc...
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MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST
Time and Day: 0900 Sunday
The Snapshot: Light
snow ending today, drying and clearing this afternoon, dry and partly sunny
Monday. .
The Science: A weak
cold front will move through Washington today. A high amplitude high pressure
ridge will build in behind it and slowly move across the West Coast Monday and
Tuesday, creating a lower level inversion in the passes and east of the crest,
and sunny and warm conditions west of the crest.
The Long Range: A
strong warm front in SW oriented upper level flow will bring rain starting Tuesday
afternoon. Precipitation totals for Tuesday through Thursday look to be around
2-3 inches. Transition back to cooler and snowy for the weekend.
Precipitation
Ending at 4am:
Today 24hr water =
>.10 Snow = 0-2
Tomorrow’s 24hr water
= 0 snow = 0
Trend
and Timing:
Light snow showers
will end this morning as a weak cold front crosses the state mid-morning.
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24hr
temperature ending at 4 am tomorrow:
Low: 26 High: 32
Freezing level:
2500’-4000’
Trend
and Timing:
There will be a brief
drop in temperature behind the cold front, then warming in the afternoon.
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24hr
Winds (mph) ending at 4 am tomorrow:
Base: 5-10 W, shifting
E
Ridge Top: 10-20 WSW
Trend
and Timing:
There will be moderate
gusty winds with the frontal passage, then winds will calm down and shift to
easterly this afternoon and over night.
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DV
January 23, 2016
MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST
Time and Day: 0630 Saturday
The Snapshot: Snow, with a chance of some light rain in the
mix today. Remnant snow showers with
drying tomorrow and Monday. Rain/snow
enters the scene during the middle of next week.
The Science: A low-pressure
cell tracking NE through the State today will bring another round of snow for
Stevens Pass. East-west pressure gradients will tighten this morning for some breezy
easterly winds; winds then shift westerly as the low passes east of the mountains.
An upper-level high-pressure ridge will
build behind the low tomorrow; this will produce a few days of dry weather with
cooler temperatures for the North-Central Cascades.
The Long Range: A strong warm front with saturated SW
flow is expected to bring mostly rain on Tuesday, Wednesday and possibly Thursday. Next weekend is trending cooler and
dry.
Precipitation Ending at 4am:
Today 24hr water = .5-.75 Snow = 4-7
Tomorrow’s 24hr water = .25 snow = 2-4
Trend and Timing:
Mixed rain and snow (mostly snow) will
fall through mid-morning tomorrow. Snow tapers off tomorrow afternoon with
Monday trending dry.
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24hr temperature
ending at 4 am tomorrow:
Low: 26 High:
32
Freezing level: 4000’ – 3000.'
Trend and Timing:
Temperatures will linger around the
freezing mark today and then begin to fall tonight. East
flow will help keep surface temps low for snow.
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24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4 am tomorrow:
Base: 5-10 E gusty then shifting W
Ridge Top: 5-15 E gusty – shifting NW
Trend and Timing:
Easterly winds will strengthen today and
then shift WNW tonight.
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jM
January 22, 2016
MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST
Time and Day: 0630 Friday
The Snapshot: The top snow stake officially hit 100” yesterday – 100”
party? Mixed snow and rain this
morning, dry tonight, snow tomorrow, dry with clearing Sunday and Monday.
The Science: A band of moisture, ahead of an approaching cold front, will pass through the mountains this
morning. Temperatures are still on the
mild side so expect a mixed bag of snow and rain. Once the front moves east of the mountains sometime
this afternoon, the snow will end and the temperatures will fall a bit. Tonight will be mostly dry with another system
lifting north tomorrow. Temperatures should be cool enough for
tomorrow’s moisture to be all snow.
The Long Range: Sunday, Monday and likely Tuesday will be mostly dry under building
high pressure.
Precipitation Ending at 4am:
Today 24hr water = .25 Snow = 0-3
Tomorrow’s 24hr water = .25-.5 snow = 2-5
Trend and Timing:
Mixed snow and rain this morning
ending this afternoon. Tonight will be
mostly dry with snow arriving tomorrow morning after 4am.
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24hr temperature
ending at 4 am tomorrow:
Low: 26 High:
34
Freezing level: 5000’ – 4000’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will fall to 4000’
this afternoon in the wake of the cold front. Cool east flow will help surface
temperatures dip below 320 f.
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24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4 am tomorrow:
Base: 0-5 E shifting
Ridge Top: 5-15 W gusty
Trend and Timing:
Winds will shift westerly today with a short
gusty period with the passing of the front. Winds Winds will flip-flop east to west during
the next few storms.
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jM
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