November 30, 2016
MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST
Time and Day: 0700
Wednesday
The Snapshot: Snow
and wind today, snow tapering to showers
tonight, light snow with sun breaks tomorrow,
more snow on Friday and Saturday. Much
cooler and dry for the start of next week.
The Science: The advertised storm arrived right on time
with around 2” of snow thus far this morning. Once the approaching occluded front
passes east of the mountains, the winds will shift westerly and
strengthen. The snow should be
consistent with good upslope orographics through
the day. The Puget Sound Convergence zone will likely be south of Stevens. The snow
will begin to diminish tonight as an upper-level
ridge between storms moves in. Therefore,
expect light snow with partial clearing to greet the day tomorrow.
The Long Range: A
progressive warm front enters the region on Friday. Heavy precipitation (snow) is expected for
the weekend. A cold dry air mass fills
in behind the weekend storm that will likely produce the coldest temperatures
of the season thus far. There is another
storm in the works for the middle of next week.
Precipitation
Ending at 4am:
Today 24hr water = .75
Snow = 5-8
Tomorrow’s 24hr water
= .24 snow = 1-3
Trend and Timing:
Snow will be consistent
through the day and turn to light showers overnight.
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24hr temperature ending at 4 am tomorrow:
Low: 27 High:
32
Freezing level: +-4000’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing
levels will remain around 4000’ with normal night time cooling.
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24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4 am tomorrow:
Base: 0-10 W
Ridge Top: 10-15 W
gusty
Trend and Timing:
The wind will shift westerly and strengthen this morning. Watch for ridge top winds with gust +25pmh
at times.
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jM
November 29, 2016
8am Start Wednesday, November 30 NO ABS
Great way to start the season, skiing POW! Good job everyone getting the show up and running today.
-253
-253
Mountain Weather Forecast
Time and Day: 9:00 Tuesday
The Snapshot: Dry and mild today, partly cloudy. Snow
starting early Wednesday morning becoming moderate to heavy Wednesday afternoon
and evening.
The Science: A transitory high pressure ridge will
move across Washington State today during the daylight hours, with the next low
pressure trough and associated front directly on its heels. After the front
crosses the Cascade Crest early Wednesday morning, the mid and upper level flow
will be favorable for supporting orographic snow showers at Stevens Pass. A
Puget Sound Convergence Zone looks likely to set up, the question is whether it
will be positioned over Stevens Pass, or further south.
The Long Range: Thursday provides a relative break in
the active weather, looking mostly dry currently. Friday brings a weakening
system with slightly rising freezing levels (~4,000”). The next one to watch is
Saturday night/Sunday, which currently looks like a good snow producing event
for the Washington Cascades.
Precipitation Ending at 4am:
Today 24hr water =.10 Snow = 0-2”
Tomorrow’s 24hr water = .75-1.0 Snow = 8-10”
Trend and Timing: Light snow
beginning early Wednesday morning, intensifying during the day, becoming
moderate to heavy Wednesday afternoon/evening.
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24hr temperature
ending at 4 am tomorrow:
Low: 27 High:
32
Freezing level: 4000’, then 3,000’
Trend and Timing:
Daytime temps should peak this
afternoon ahead of the front, rapid cooling early Wednesday morning.
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24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4 am tomorrow:
Base: W 5mph, then E 5-10
Ridge Top: SSW 5-10, then S 10-15
Trend and Timing:
Light west winds should give way to east
flow through the passes Tuesday afternoon.
DV
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November 28, 2016
MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST
Time and Day: 0700 Monday
The Snapshot: Windy, cooler with diminishing snow showers
today, more snow expected tomorrow night with the week ending dry.
The Science: It looks like we have received around 11” so
far this morning with a few more on the upper mountain – nice. The frontal system that brought the snow is now
heading into the intermountain west (Idaho, Montana). Strong NW flow is filling in and will bring a
windy day with snow showers beginning to taper off tonight.
The next front is
now timing out to arrive early Wednesday morning. Storm totals for this system are +-.5” of water 3-5” of snow. Thursday and most of Friday will be dry with
clear period due to building high pressure.
The Long Range: Another series of storms are in the works for
the weekend. The first is currently timing out to arrive sometime late Friday
and then another on Sunday. Models
disagree on the timing and strength of these storms so no need to dwell on any details
just yet.
Precipitation
Ending at 4am:
Today 24hr water = .25
Snow = 2-4
Tomorrow’s 24hr water
= .25-.5 snow = 3-6
Trend and Timing:
Snow showers slowly
taper off today. Tomorrow will be
mostly dry with a few light snow showers possible.
The next front hits late Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning.
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24hr temperature ending at 4 am tomorrow:
Low: 26 High:
30
Freezing level: +-3500’
Trend and Timing:
Temperatures will fall
into the mid to upper 20’s today.
Freezing level will be around +-3500’ through tomorrow.
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24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4 am tomorrow:
Base: 5-10 NW
Ridge Top: 5-15 gusts
20+
Trend and Timing:
Gusty NW winds will persist
today.
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jM
November 27, 2016
MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST
Time and Day: 0700
Sunday
The Snapshot: Light precipitation today with moderate to
heavy snow, wind and cooler tonight, diminishing snow showers tomorrow with another
storm developing Tuesday night. The week ends dry with clearing.
The Science: A triple point (warm, cold, occluded) frontal
system approaching the PNW will bring a
nice dose of snow to Stevens Pass tonight. With some luck, Stevens could receive a foot
of snow with enhanced orographics and persistent snow showers tomorrow.
The main action
starts later today with the passing of the warm front. Freezing levels will remain around 4000’ and
even bump up a bit with the passing of the first front. There could be a short Puget Sound Convergence
period tonight, which could be the heaviest snow period. Snow totals will be
dependent on where and how long the convergence zone decides to live.
The cold front
quickly follows which will lower temperatures and turns the general flow to NW;
this will likely shift the convergence zone south of Stevens. The snow will slowly shift to showers tomorrow
with a high pressure ridge moving in on Tuesday.
The Long Range: Long range models are being very fickle, so confidence is low with the +- 7 day outlook.
As of this morning, Tuesday’s storm appears to be gaining some energy
and should produce some more snow. High
pressure will likely bring a few days of dry weather for end the week.
Precipitation
Ending at 4am:
Today 24hr water = .75-1
Snow = 7-12
Tomorrow’s 24hr water
= .25-.5 snow = 3-5
Trend and Timing:
Light mixed rain and
snow showers today, main precipitation hits after 4pm, snow showers
persisting tomorrow.
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24hr temperature ending at 4 am tomorrow:
Low: 27 High:
34
Freezing level: 4000’ 3000’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will
stick around 4000’ today and then fall in the wake of the cold front later
tonight.
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24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4 am tomorrow:
Base: 5-10 W
Ridge Top: 5-15 NW
Trend and Timing:
Winds will intensify
tonight with gusty NW flow for the next 24-48hrs.
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jM
November 26, 2016
MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST
Time and Day: 0830
Saturday
The Snapshot: Snow today diminishing to light snow showers
overnight. More snow arrives tomorrow
night with next week trending dry.
The Science: Two low-pressure troughs will swing through
the Cascade Mountains over the weekend.
Cooler temperatures, northwesterly flow with light to moderate snow will
fill in behind these fronts. A brief
lull will occur overnight with the next frontal system arriving tomorrow
night.
The Long Range: Long range model are now building a high
pressure ridge over the PNW starting on Monday.
This is a significant change in the forecast models and they don’t sync
up very well. So as of now, with the
exception of a weak system moving through on Wednesday night, next week will be
mostly dry.
Precipitation
Ending at 4am:
Today 24hr water = .25
Snow = 1-3
Tomorrow’s 24hr water
= .5 snow = 3-5
Trend and Timing:
Light rain and snow
today below 4500’. The precipitation
will diminish tonight with the next wave of snow arriving after 4pm tomorrow
afternoon.
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24hr temperature ending at 4 am tomorrow:
Low: 26 High:
34
Freezing level: +-4500’
- 3500’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will
fall overnight as NW flow develops.
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24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4 am tomorrow:
Base: 0-5 E
Ridge Top: 0-10 ESE
Trend and Timing:
East flow will persist
today and slowly shift westerly tomorrow.
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jM
November 25, 2016
MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST
Time and Day: 0700
Friday
The Snapshot: Light snow showers with sun breaks today, snow
tonight with mixed snow and rain showers tomorrow, dryer with some clear
periods on Sunday, more snow on the way next week.
The Science: Telemetry says somewhere in the neighborhood
of 7-11” of snow fell during the last 24hrs. A low-pressure
trough that has formed off the Washington coast will spin the next band of
moisture up through the state tonight. This will be followed by another weak
ridge high pressure for a repeat of today on Sunday with snow developing late
Sunday night.
The Long Range: Unstable NW flow will keep this pattern of a
storm every other day or so coming; Sunday/Monday and then again late Tuesday
night, all should be good snow producers for Stevens Pass.
Precipitation
Ending at 4am:
Today 24hr water = .25 Snow = 1-3
Tomorrow’s 24hr water
= .25-.5 snow = 2-5
Trend and Timing:
Snow after 7pm tonight. Snow with a chance of rain in the base area
early tomorrow morning. The
precipitation tapers off late tomorrow afternoon with Sunday trending dry.
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24hr temperature ending at 4 am tomorrow:
Low: 30 High:
34+
Freezing level: +-4500’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will
remain steady around 4-4500’. Sun
breaks today could push surface temperatures above freezing. Pockets of warm air will move through
tomorrow which could temporarily bump up temperatures.
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24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4 am tomorrow:
Base: 0-10 E
Ridge Top: 5-10 ESE
Trend and Timing:
Winds will be mostly E
with southerly flow aloft. Winds will
shift westerly with the passing of the fronts.
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jM
November 24, 2016
MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST
Time and Day: 0830
Thursday
The Snapshot: Snow today, snow diminishing overnight,
relatively dry tomorrow with snow expected on Saturday. More storms on the way next week.
The Science: This morning’s radar has the leading edge of an approaching cold front
entering the Olympic Peninsula. Snow
will intensify as the front marches east. Another pulse of moisture will push up from
the south tonight with a short period of some rain in the mix; this should be
short lived if at all. Freezing levels
will be around 4000’ so the snow will be wet and heavy. Good base making.
Pressure gradients
will ease with some mid level ridging tomorrow which will bring and end to
the steady precipitation and even produces some clearing. A weak low-pressure system will swings through on
Saturday with few more inches of snow possible during the day.
The Long Range: Saturday
night and Sunday will be mostly dry with partial clearing. Active NW flow continues more snow for
the final week of November.
Precipitation
Ending at 4am:
Today 24hr water = .75-1
Snow = 8-12
Tomorrow’s 24hr water
= .25 snow = 1-3
Trend and Timing:
Snow has begun to fall;
there will be a brief lull this afternoon with a pulse of heavy snow around
midnight. Snow quickly tapers off
tomorrow with little snow expected after 7am tomorrow.
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24hr temperature ending at 4 am tomorrow:
Low: 28 High:
34
Freezing level: +-4000’
Trend and Timing:
Temperatures will be
consistent around 300 f through Saturday night. Sun breaks could push temps up a few
degrees tomorrow.
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24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4 am tomorrow:
Base: 0-10 E
Ridge Top: 5-10 ESE
Trend and Timing:
East flow at the
surface with southeasterly flow aloft
will continue into Saturday.
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jM
November 23, 2016
NWAC Starting Avalanche Forecasts Thursday, November 24
AKA Thanksgiving. First avalanche forecast of the season should go out around 6:00pm tomorrow. NWAC is also currently issuing daily weather forecasts in the early afternoon until their regular winter schedule starts.
-253 Dan
-253 Dan
MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST
Time and Day: 0930
Wednesday
The Snapshot: Light snow showers today, snow tomorrow, dry
on Friday, more snow for the weekend.
The Science: .25” of water with around 3” of snow fell
overnight. Light snow showers have been left in the wake of the occluded front
that moved east of the Cascade Crest earlier this morning. Two,
very close fronts, will move through the region starting early tomorrow. The first should produce some nice snow for
Stevens tomorrow. A cut-off low with an
embedded warm front forms behind the first wave and will swing north through
the mountains tomorrow night. Freezing
levels will briefly spike up to near 5000’ as a pocket of warm air makes its
way up the westerly slopes. Therefore,
expect a little mixed rain with the snow
after sunset tomorrow. The
precipitation tapers off on Friday with some partial clearing.
Storm totals = 4am
tomorrow – 4am Saturday = +-1.5” of water, 10-15” of snow.
The Long Range: A
weak low-pressure system will track
through on Saturday with more snow showers.
A more organized system arrives late Sunday with more snow for Stevens
Pass to start the new week. High
pressure building off of western coast will begin to dry and warm things up for
the middle of next week.
Precipitation
Ending at 4am:
Today 24hr water = .25
Snow = 1-3
Tomorrow’s 24hr water
= .75-1 snow = 6-10
Trend and Timing:
Light snow showers
today, snow arriving early tomorrow morning (+-4am)
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24hr temperature ending at 4 am tomorrow:
Low: 29 High: 32
Freezing level: +-
4000’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will hover
near 4000’ through tomorrow.
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24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4 am tomorrow:
Base: 0-5 W shifting E
Ridge Top: 0-10 W
shifting E
Trend and Timing:
Light westerly flow will shift easterly
early tomorrow morning.
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jM
November 22, 2016
MOUNTAIN WEATHER STAT UPDATE
Time and Day: 1000
Tuesday
Current models are
not in agreement on the timing or intensity of these next few storms. Therefore, confidence is low.
Storm total
numbers for the week:
4pm today – 4pm
tomorrow = .25 water, 2-4” snow
4pm Wednesday – 4pm
Thursday .5-.75 water 3-8” snow
4pm Thursday – 4pm
Friday = .5” water 3-7” of snow
Low end of snow
accumulation by 4pm Friday 8” - high
end 18”
MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST
Time and Day: 0800
Tuesday
The Snapshot: Snow this afternoon, flurries tomorrow, snow
on Thursday and Friday.
The Science: The leading edge of the approaching frontal
system has just made landfall and is expected to enter the mountains later
today. This approaching system has a
fast moving warm front leading the charge
but will be quickly followed by a cold front.
East flow should hold temperatures at or below 320 with
freezing level falling in the wake of the cold front later tonight. Snow will diminish overnight with snow showers persisting tomorrow.
*I will post Thursday/Friday
storm totals later today with fresh model data.
The Long Range: Cool unstable NW flow will keep the snow in
the forecast through the weekend.
Another storm is starting to take shape for
Sunday(?) with next week starting out dry and a bit warmer.
Precipitation
Ending at 4am:
Today 24hr water = +.25
Snow =2-5
Tomorrow’s 24hr water
= <.25 snow = 1-2
Trend and Timing:
Snow should begin this
afternoon and taper off early tomorrow morning. Tomorrow will have light snow showers with
the next wave of moisture arriving Thursday morning.
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24hr temperature ending at 4 am tomorrow:
Low: 26 High:
34
Freezing level: 4000’ 3000’
Trend and Timing:
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24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4 am tomorrow:
Base: 0-10 E shifting W
Ridge Top: 5-10 E shifting W
Trend and Timing:
East flow will persist through the night and shift westerly tomorrow.
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jM
November 21, 2016
MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST
Time and Day: 1000 Monday
The Snapshot:
Lights snow showers today with snow likely tomorrow night. More storms with favorable temperatures
arrive for the second half of the week.
The Science:
This morning’s radar has scattered showers moving into the Cascade Mountains
with freezing levels around 4500’. Some weak upper-level
ridging could allow the sun to peak through from time to time.
Cooler NW flow develops today with first of several
frontal systems arriving tomorrow. The frontal band is expected to stall a bit
before progressing east. Stevens won’t likely
see any snow until late tomorrow. This
first storm isn’t packing much of a punch so only a few inches of snow is likely.
The Long Range: The next front e.t.a. is Thursday and then again on Friday. These storms are packing more of a punch with
good (snow) freezing levels remaining in place into the weekend.
Early storm total estimates from 4pm Tuesday through 4pm
Friday = 10-16” of snow.
Precipitation Ending at 4am:
Today 24hr water = <.25 Snow = trace
Tomorrow’s 24hr water = +.25 snow = 2-4
Trend and Timing:
Light snow flurries today with sun break. Snow arrives after 2pm tomorrow.
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24hr temperature
ending at 4 am tomorrow:
Low: 26 High: 30
Freezing level: +- 4000’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will hover around 4000’ through tomorrow.
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24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4 am tomorrow:
Base: 0-5 W shifting E
Ridge Top: 0-10 W shifting E
Trend and Timing:
Light westerly
flow will shift easterly overnight and strengthen tomorrow.
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jM
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