8:00 start wed feb 1st no ABS

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day:  0630 Tuesday

The Snapshot:  SURPRISE!  The snow that was expected to stay to the south of Stevens Pass, had other plans.  5” of snow.  We will take it.  22⁰ f and fresh pow– It should be good sliding. 

The snow is expected to drift south this morning with Stevens Pass trending dry for the next few days.  More snow is expected on Friday/Saturday.   

The Science:  This morning’s radar has the bulk of moisture now heading into the southeast region of the state.  There are a few intermittent showers left falling at Stevens Pass with another inch possible as it slowly tapers off.

Dry, cool NE flow is beginning to stream in as the low-pressure cell treks SE into the intermountain west.   Offshore (east flow) winds are expected to strengthen over the next few days.  We will return to the previous forecast of cold and dry weather developing over the North-Central Cascades.   

The Long Range:   The next period of interests will be Friday as a developing low-pressure system brings the next round of moisture to the region.   Models differ in their opinion of the weekend's weather, so stay tunes as they come to an agreement.    In the mean time enjoy the fresh snow.

Precipitation Ending at 4am: Today 24hr water =  .10 Snow = 1-2 Tomorrow’s 24hr water = 0 snow = 0 Trend and Timing: Snow showers end around sun up with dry conditions developing for the remainder of the day.

24hr temperature ending at 4 am tomorrow:  Low: 14    High: 24 Freezing level:  -1000’ Trend and Timing:    A bit of daytime warming is expected with freezing levels falling below 1000’ overnight.

24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4 am tomorrow: Base: 0-10 E Ridge Top: 5-20 NE gusty Trend and Timing: Gusty easterly (offshore) winds will develop over the next 24hrs.  4000’ winds should be fairly light with ridge top and downslope (west) winds strengthening.

jM

8:00 start tue jan 31st no ABS

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day: 0630 Monday

The Snapshot:  Cloudy and dry today.  This week will be mostly dry with colder temperatures and clear periods. 

The Science:  This morning’s radar has some very light showers hanging around with cloudy westerly flow persisting over the region.  The large low-pressure system churning off of the Oregon / California coast will keep most of the moisture south of Washington State for the next +-5 days.  This system will also allow a strong offshore (east flow) flow pattern to form over our region; this will draw in dry, cold arctic air from the northeast.   Therefore, expect mostly dry conditions with clear periods and low freezing levels to develop over the next few days.    

The Long Range:  The jet stream shifts SW late in the week with warmer and wetter weather developing for the upcoming weekend.

Precipitation Ending at 4am: Today 24hr water =  0 Snow = 0 Tomorrow’s 24hr water = 0  snow = 0 Trend and Timing: 0

24hr temperature ending at 4 am tomorrow:  Low:  18   High: 34 Freezing level: 4500’   1000’ Trend and Timing:    Mild temperatures will stick around today with freezing levels sharply falling overnight.

24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4 am tomorrow: Base: 0-5 W shifting E   Ridge Top: 5-10 W shifting E Trend and Timing:  The upper-level winds will begin to mellow out this morning and then become easterly tomorrow.

jM

8:00 Start Monday January 30, No ABS

Freaking groundhog day. At least there will be an inch or two tomorrow morning...

-253

Mountain Weather Forecast

Time and Day: 0730 Sunday

The Snapshot: Light snow in a weak cold front this afternoon, partly cloudy and dry Monday.

The Science: The persistent ridge that has been over the Pacific Northwest should begin to flatten a bit today, allowing a weak cold front in westerly flow aloft to cross the forecast area Sunday afternoon. Continued westerly flow Monday and Tuesday will bring very light snow showers, cooling temperatures, and partly sunny skies to North Central Washington.

The Long Range: Confidence in the formation of the Rex Block (high pressure over an offshore low) feature on Tuesday is high. However, its exact position is a little up in the air (sorry for the pun). Snowfall amounts have been significantly downgraded in the most recent model runs. Light snow looks possible for Tuesday and Wednesday at lower snow levels (~2,000’). Fortunately, this pattern looks to break down by Thursday/Friday, opening the door to more typical winter weather by next weekend.

Precipitation Ending at 4am: Today 24hr water = >.25 Snow = 1-3” Tomorrow’s 24hr water = >.10 Snow = 0-2” Trend and Timing: Light snow should begin Sunday afternoon, ending by 4am Monday morning. Light snow showers Monday afternoon.

24hr temperature ending at 4 am tomorrow:                                        Low:  20 (base area)   High: 42 (at upper weather stations) Freezing level: 8,000 – 3,500 Trend and Timing:    Temperatures and snow levels should drop throughout the day Sunday and further by Monday morning.

24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4 am tomorrow: Base: E 5-10, then W 5-10 Ridge Top: Variable, then W 10-20 Trend and Timing:  Increasing ridgetop winds during the day Sunday, peaking Sunday night and calming down by Monday morning. East winds thru the pass should ease by mid-afternoon Sunday, eroding the inversion. DV

8:00 Start Sunday, January 29 No ABS

Mountain Weather Forecast

Time and Day: 0700 Saturday

The Snapshot: Cool and intermittently foggy in the base area, sunny and warm on the upper mountain today. Increasing clouds and light snow tomorrow.

The Science: Satellite imagery this morning shows a triple point frontal system with a parent low centered in SE Alaska and a long SW-oriented fetch of moisture aimed at the Northern Coastal Range in BC. They will experience extreme winds and high freezing levels. Fortunately it is well off shore of Washington and the main effect felt in the Cascades should be scattered clouds. A high pressure ridge is in place over Washington, providing high freezing levels, mostly sunny skies, and dry conditions throughout most of Washington and Oregon. An exception is the base area at Stevens Pass, where an inversion and light east flow is bringing below freezing temperatures and intermittent fog. Above mid-mountain (~4500’) it is above freezing and should be partly sunny today.

The ridge flattens a bit Sunday, allowing more westerly upper level flow to clip the northern part of the state. A very weak embedded trough should move across Northern Washington Sunday night.

The Long Range: Monday looks mostly dry and partly cloudy, with lower freezing levels (~2,000). A feature called a Rex Block looks to develop on Tuesday. Typically these features are not helpful to Western Washington in terms of snowfall. However, this one looks to set up just far enough west that the convergent flow on the eastern side of it (similar in concept to a Puget Sound Convergence Zone) may lead to enhanced precipitation (snowfall) for the Cascades next week. Stay tuned for details. 

Precipitation Ending at 4am: Today 24hr water = 0  Snow = 0 Tomorrow’s 24hr water = >.25 Snow = 1-3” Trend and Timing: Precipitation should arrive late Sunday afternoon, a brief shot of snow will end by midnight.

24hr temperature ending at 4 am tomorrow:                                        Low: 22 (in base area)    High: 40 (on upper mountain) Freezing level: 7,000 Trend and Timing:    Freezing levels should peak Saturday night before slowly falling back to near Pass level during the day Sunday.

24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4 am tomorrow: Base: E 5-10 Ridge Top: Variable 5-10 Trend and Timing:  East winds should hang in there through Sunday morning. The battle of East vs. West should be in place at the ridgetops, with temperatures swinging back and forth accordingly. DV

8:00 Start Saturday January 28, No ABS

It's not raining.

-253

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day: 0700 Friday                                                                           

The Snapshot:   Dry with warming today and tomorrow.  Light precipitation expected Sunday afternoon/evening.

The Science:  High pressure over the inland NW will continue to block the incoming moisture through most of Sunday.  Freezing levels are trending up with +5500’ levels possible tomorrow.  Couple the high freezing levels with sun breaks, surface temperatures could reach 40^0f  tomorrow afternoon.   A cold front swings in late Sunday afternoon for a chance of some light rain and or snow.  

The Long Range:   Sunday’s cold front will push the high pressure out and replace it with a cold dry air mass.  No significant snow events are on the radar for the long range outlook.  +7 days

Precipitation Ending at 4am: Today 24hr water = 0 Snow =0 Tomorrow’s 24hr water =0  snow = 0 Trend and Timing: 0

24hr temperature ending at 4 am tomorrow:  Low:  24   High: 36 Freezing level: 3000’ – 5000’ Trend and Timing:    Freezing levels should hit 4000’ today and then continue rising over the next 24hrs,  peaking near 5500’ or 6000’ tomorrow afternoon.

24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4 am tomorrow: Base:  0-5 E Ridge Top:  0-10 S Trend and Timing: Light east flow at the surface with southerly winds takings shape above 5000’.

jM

8:00 Start Friday January 27, No ABS

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day: 0630 Thursday

The Snapshot:   Dry, with broken clouds today.  Dry weather with warmer temperatures will continue through most of the weekend.

The Science:  Satellite imagery has a midlevel stratus layer of clouds blanketing most of the eastern portion of the state with clearing to the west.  Like yesterday, some light snow could be produce by this thin layer of clouds, but no significant snow is expected.  

High pressure aloft will keep the atmosphere stable and dry for most of the weekend.  Warm and relatively dry SW flow will bring rising freezing levels to the mountains for the next few days.  Freezing levels could to reach +5000’ early Saturday morning. 

The Long Range:   The high pressure system is expected to weaken and drift southeast on Sunday.  This will open the door for a pattern change to cooler and wetter weather.   However, there are no major storms showing up on the long range models.  

Precipitation Ending at 4am: Today 24hr water = 0 Snow =0 Tomorrow’s 24hr water = 0 snow = 0 Trend and Timing: 0

24hr temperature ending at 4 am tomorrow:  Low:  24   High: 32 Freezing level: 3500’ – 4000’ rising Trend and Timing:    Temperature will slowly rise during the next 24-48hrs.

24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4 am tomorrow: Base: 0-5 ESE Ridge Top: 0-10 WSW Trend and Timing: Light east/south east flow at the surface with southwest flow aloft will be the wind regime for the next few days.

jM

8:00 start thur jan 26th no abs

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day:  0600 Wednesday

The Snapshot:  It is clear at 5am this morning with some morning fog possible as the sun begins to rise.  Dry with a slow warming trend can be expected for the remainder of the week.

The Science:  Hopefully we will see a bit more sunshine today than we did yesterday – pesky mid-level marine layer sneaking in there.  The barometer bumped up a few more notches overnight as the high pressure continues to strengthen.  

A warm, moist air mass approaching the coast will begin to raise freezing levels over the next few days. The moisture associated with this system will split or just dry up as it hits the high pressure ridge.  Therefore, expect this dry weather, but with warmer temperatures, to continue into at least Saturday.  

The Long Range:  The next chance of some moisture will be late Sunday or Monday.   Freezing levels are also expected to rise above Pass level by Saturday.

Precipitation Ending at 4am: Today 24hr water = 0 Snow =0 Tomorrow’s 24hr water =0  snow =0 Trend and Timing: 0

24hr temperature ending at 4 am tomorrow:  Low: 16    High: 28 Freezing level: +- 2500’ rising Trend and Timing:    Cold mornings with daytime warming will continue.  Freezing levels will slowly rise over the next few days peaking near 4500’ on Friday and then higher over the weekend.

24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4 am tomorrow: Base:  0-5 WNW Ridge Top: 5-10 NW Trend and Timing: Light WNW flow will dominate the wind pattern through Friday.

jM

Ski Patrol Death During Avalanche Control

Details are still pending on how, what and why a patroller died while doing avalanche control at Squaw Valley.   It doesn't seem like it was a burial from the initial report.

http://unofficialnetworks.com/2017/01/squaw-valley-closes-after-ski-patrol-death

jM

8:00 start wed Jan 25th no ABS

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day: 0700 Tuesday

The Snapshot:  Sunshine and stars for the next 5+ days.

The Science:  High pressure will continue to progress today keeping dry and clear conditions over the mountains for the remainder of the week.   A weak system will brush the coast on Wednesday/Thursday, all but a few clouds will be blocked from making to the Cascades Range.

The Long Range:  A warm front is expected to begin to break down the blocking ridge sometime over the weekend.  So, at this point in the game, Sunday will be the next chance of precipitation. 

Precipitation Ending at 4am: Today 24hr water = 0 Snow = 0 Tomorrow’s 24hr water =  0 snow = 0 Trend and Timing: 0

24hr temperature ending at 4 am tomorrow:  Low: 20     High: 30 Freezing level: +-2500’ Trend and Timing:    Good diurnal temperature swings will continue.

24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4 am tomorrow: Base:  0-5 NNW Ridge Top: 0-10 NNW Trend and Timing: Light northerly flow has developed with winds generally WNW for the next few days.

jM

8:00 start tue jan 24th no abs

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day: 0630 Monday

The Snapshot:  The proverbial January thaw is upon us.   Long term clear and dry weather begins today.   Enjoy the sunshine and the stars.

The Science: The low-pressure system that brought us the dusting of snow yesterday will be replaced by a blocking ridge of high pressure today.  This high pressure system is expected to strengthen through the week. Therefore, expect clear and dry weather to prevail over the Central Cascades for the next + 5 days.  Cold clear mornings with nice daytime warming will be the temperature profile through the week as well.

The Long Range:  The dry weather pattern will likely persist into the upcoming weekend. 

Precipitation Ending at 4am: Today 24hr water = 0 Snow = 0 Tomorrow’s 24hr water = 0 snow = 0 Trend and Timing: 0

24hr temperature ending at 4 am tomorrow:  Low: 16   High: 26 Freezing level: +-2500’ Trend and Timing:    10-15 degree temperature spreads with lows in the upper teens and highs pushing into the upper 20’s or even low 30’s will develop over the next few days.

24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4 am tomorrow: Base:  0-5 W Ridge Top: 0-10 NW Trend and Timing: Winds will be light and mostly westerly for the week.

jM

8:00 Start Monday January 23, No ABS

Mountain Weather Forecast

Time and Day: 0700 Sunday

The Snapshot: More light snow showers today, clearing skies tonight and tomorrow.

The Science: The trend of light snow showers and partly cloudy skies will continue today. A weak occluded front will cross Stevens Pass today bringing another minor refresh of snow. The low pressure system off the coast that has been spinning these bands of snow into the Northwest will begin to move onshore at the Oregon/California border Sunday afternoon night, leaving Washington under clearing skies and cool northern upper level flow. High pressure will build over the West Coast Monday afternoon and Tuesday bringing mostly sunny and dry days with freezing levels around 2,000’.

The Long Range: A high amplitude high pressure ridge will build over the West Coast for most of next week. A very weak low pressure trough may try to move through on Wednesday night/Thursday, with the main effect being increasing clouds, before the ridge rebuilds for the remainder of the week.

Precipitation Ending at 4am: Today 24hr water = >.25 Snow = 1-3 Tomorrow’s 24hr water = 0 Snow = 0 Trend and Timing: Light snow during the day Sunday, ending Sunday afternoon. Dry Monday night.

24hr temperature ending at 4 am tomorrow:                                        Low:   25  High: 30 Freezing level: 2500-3000 Trend and Timing:    Temperatures will bump up during the day Sunday, and drop under clearing skies Sunday night and Monday.

24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4 am tomorrow: Base: E 10-15 Ridge Top: E 5-10 Trend and Timing: Gusty east winds through the Pass today, light east winds at the ridgetops diminishing Sunday night.  DV

8:00 am start sun jan 22nd no ABS

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day:  0730 Saturday

The Snapshot:  Lightly snowing with 1” of fresh snow this morning.  We can look forward to intermittent snow showers and sun breaks for the remainder of the weekend.  Dry and clear weather begins on Monday.

The Science:  Satellite imagery has scattered snow showers rotating around an offshore stationary low.  Bands of moisture will continue to move north as the low-pressure cell slowly drifts southeast into Oregon over the next few days. The bulk of the moistures is expected to remain along the eastern slopes with more accumulation east of the Cascade Crest possible. 

Freezing levels to the east have settled around 2500’ with 3500’over the western slopes; this will continue to produce east-west pressure gradients and thus, periods of gusty easterly winds.   

The Long Range:   Dry and clear weather develops on Monday as high pressure strengthens over the PNW.   The blocking ridge of high pressure is expected to dominate the weather pattern for all of next week.

Precipitation Ending at 4am: Today 24hr water =  .25 Snow = 2-4 Tomorrow’s 24hr water = .25  snow = 2-4 Trend and Timing: Passing snow showers will continue through early Monday morning.

24hr temperature ending at 4 am tomorrow:  Low: 24    High: 32 Freezing level: +-2500’ Trend and Timing:    Temps will be consistent with normal daytime warming.

24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4 am tomorrow: Base: 5-10 E Ridge Top: 5-15 E Trend and Timing: Periods of gusty easterly winds will continue today and tomorrow.

jM