8:00 Thursday Feb 1st ABS

MID-DAY UPDATE FORECAST

No changes to this mornings forecast.

There is still uncertainty on when, how warm and how long the warm-up on Friday will be -  There may be an upgrade in snow totals prior to the change to rain.   More on that tomorrow.

In the meantime – get out, the snow is amazing. 

jM

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day: 0630 Wednesday

The Snapshot:  Windy with light snow today and tomorrow.  Warming and rain expected on Friday with a mixed bag of weather for the weekend.

The Science

Current Observations: The convergence zone shifted north last night which is why only received 3” of snow.  There is partial clearing being reported with the temperature profile at 26 base / 21 ridges.  The 5000’ winds were westerly and have been fairly consistent through the night; 5-15 mph.  The barometer is 10016mb’s and slowly trending up.  

The Forecast:   The rising barometer is an indicator of the pressure gradients easing off a bit today, hence the partial clearing.  Unstable cool westerly flow will keep light snow showers falling in the mountains through tomorrow.

A warm front with moisture will slowly lift north over the next 36-48hrs. Freezing levels are expected to reach 4000’ tomorrow afternoon and then bump up to 5500’ early Friday morning.  The precipitation will continue as snow through tomorrow and then change to rain early Friday morning.  

The Long Range:  A large high pressure system, developing off of the California coastal waters, is expected to slowly drift north over the next 5-7 days.  The center of this system is expected to remain offshore and south of Washington State. This will allow storms with rising and falling freezing levels to continue to move through the region.  What all this means is to expect periods of rain and snow with mild temperatures through the weekend and likely beyond.          

24hr values daily 4am to 4am.

Precipitation: Today 24hr water:.25-.5   snow: 3-5 Tomorrow’s 24hr water:.25-.5   snow:1-3 Trend and Timing: Light snow will persist through tomorrow.

Temperature: Low: 26    High:30 Freezing level: 2500 -3500’ Trend and Timing:    Freezing levels will slowly rise over the next 24hrs but remain below Pass level until tomorrow night.

Winds Base: 0-10 W Ridge Top: 5-10 W Trend and Timing: The flow will remain westerly with the winds diminishing today.

6:15 Wed Jan 31st ABS

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day:  0700 Tuesday

The Snapshot:  Snow showers, gusty winds and cooler temperatures today. It could be a nice powder day tomorrow.   Another warm moist air mass moves in on Thursday for a chance of rain heading into the weekend. 

The Science

Current Observations:  1.4” of rain fell yesterday with 2" of snow overnight.  It is partly cloudy this morning; the temperature profile is 29/base and 25/top.  The barometer has clicked up a few notches to 1011mb’s.  The winds are westerly and a bit gusty (+-10 mph) on the upper mountain. The radar has cooler westerly flow filling in behind the cold front that passed east of the crest just after midnight last night. 

The Forecast:  The Puget Sound Convergence Zone will kick in today with heavy to moderate snow and falling temperatures.  Snow slowly diminishes tomorrow with rising freezing levels beginning on Thursday.

The Long Range:  Another strong warm front lifts up through the region on Thursday with high freezing levels and another shot of rain to wrap up the week.  The models are all over the board for what the weekend will bring, so we will have to wait to see how that decides to play out.       

24hr values daily 4am to 4am.

Precipitation: Today 24hr water:.75-1   snow:  6-10 + Tomorrow’s 24hr water: .5  snow: 4-6 Trend and Timing: Moderate snow today.  Convergence conditions could increase totals.  Snow diminishes tomorrow.

Temperature: Low:  24   High: 28 Freezing level: 3500’ – 2000’ Trend and Timing:    Freezing levels will fall to below 2500’ tonight and stay around that level into Thursday.

Winds Base:  5-15 W Ridge Top: 10-20 W Trend and Timing: Consistent westerly winds will blow today and begin to lighten up tomorrow.

8am NO Abs Tuesday January 1-30

Mountain Weather Forecast

Time and Day: 0730 Monday-Wednesday morning

The Snapshot: Mild and warm for the first half of Monday, windy and snowy after 4pm. Continued light to moderate snow at lower freezing levels Tuesday thru Wednesday.

The Science

Current Observations:  38 degrees on the upper mountain and 33 in the base area with very light winds. The moisture stopped overnight and the skies are partly cloudy this morning. Total height of snow has settled about 8 inches since yesterday, with Schmidt Haus reading 89” and Brooks at 116”. The barometer is slowly dropping as the low pressure center moves closer.

The Forecast: As expected the warm frontal boundary that messed up our good skiing mostly dropped its heavy load on the Olympics and North Cascades yesterday. The associated cold front will sag across the state as the parent low moves onshore Monday. As the cold front approaches the precip will initially start as rain at Stevens Pass, but should sharply transition to snow with frontal passage after 4pm. A moderate shot of snow is likely between 4pm and midnight, with light snow showers into Tuesday morning. Westerly upper level flow affects the PNW Tuesday, with light orographic snow showers and some areas of heavier convergence showers. Currently the heaviest convergence showers look to be north of Stevens. A consistent rate of light to moderate snow continues through Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning at cool temperatures and freezing levels around 2500’.

The Long Range: Wednesday looks relatively benign with light snow showers at low freezing levels. Another system looks to move into the area Wednesday night and Thursday bringing warming temperatures and moderate to heavy precip. Freezing levels look on the line for this one so stay tuned as details emerge.

24hr values daily 4am to 4am.

Precipitation: Monday’s 24hr water: .75-1.0   snow: 5-7” Tuesday’s 24hr water: .5-.75   snow: 6” Trend and Timing: Precip likely starts as rain Monday around noon, switching to snow after 4pm. Light to moderate snow showers through Wednesday morning.

Temperature: Low: 24    High: 40 Freezing level: 6500-2500’ Trend and Timing:    Freezing levels and temps fall sharply Monday evening.

Winds Base: W 0-5, then W 10-15 Ridge Top: SSW 10-15, then W 25-30 and gusty Trend and Timing: Winds increase and shift to due westerly Monday night and remain moderate and westerly Tuesday.

8am No BS Monday January 29th

Mountain Weather Forecast

Time and Day: 0700 Sunday

The Snapshot: Mixed precip today, mild and cloudy this afternoon and Monday morning, with snow returning Monday night.

The Science

Current Observations:  Light mixed precip is falling from the base area to the upper mountain currently. East flow is maintaining temperatures just below freezing, and there was 2” of snow overnight. The barometer has gone up a few ticks but should begin to fall again soon.

The Forecast: A deep low pressure center is well offshore in the Pacific and is spinning a warm front from south to north this morning. The front will lift across Western Washington mid-morning, bringing moderate precipitation to the Central Cascades and heavy precipitation to the Olympics and North Cascades. East flow through Stevens Pass is currently maintaining temperatures below freezing, although the precip type coming out of the sky is definitely “mixed.” Pressure gradients should ease and switch to onshore mid-morning, which will be the end of our easterly cool air. Temperatures will rise and precip type should change from a wintry mix to good old rain.

The good news is that models show the bulk of the moisture staying well to the north of Stevens Pass after the warm up. Late Sunday afternoon and night there will be a drying trend. As the low pressure center moves onshore, the front will sag across the state bringing renewed precipitation Monday afternoon and evening. This precip will likely start as rain, but freezing levels drop behind the front and cool, westerly upper level flow develops for a return to snow. Stay tuned for details.

The Long Range:    West-Northwest flow should maintain moderate snow Tuesday and Wednesday at 2-3,000’ freezing levels. Thursday looks mostly dry, with another system bringing moderate snow Friday.   

24hr values daily 4am to 4am.

Precipitation: Sunday’s 24hr water: .5   snow: 2-6” Monday’s 24hr water: .75-1.0  snow: 6-10” Trend and Timing: Moderate precip mid morning Sunday, then mostly dry until Monday midday.

Temperature: Low: 28    High: 38 Freezing level: 6500’ Trend and Timing:    Temps should rise mid-day Sunday and overnight.

Winds Base: E 0-5, then variable 0-5 Ridge Top: ENE 5-10, then SSW 10-20 Trend and Timing: Mid morning switch from easterly to westerly, remaining SSW throughout the night.

8:00 No ABS Sunday January 28

What a great 10 days, thanks for the hard work!

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day: 0600

The Snapshot:  “The snow is chin high 10 squires deep” A.J. Dauel.   

Snow with windy and warmer conditions can be expected today; rising freezing levels and rain tomorrow and Monday.  This amazing storm cycle will come to an end next week as high pressure builds.  

Wind advisory today:  Sustained 40+mph ridge top winds expected.

The Science

Current Observations: 11” of snow fell yesterday with 5” of that falling overnight.  The temperatures profile is 27 base, 22 ridges.  The barometer has dropped to 1009mb’s.  Satellite radar has widespread precipitation throughout the state. 

The Forecast:  A strong low-pressure system will track north along the coastal waters headed for Canada today.  For the Washington Mountains, this will shift the flow to WSW and entrain warm moist air. 

Winds will be the featured topic of the day with strong westerly flow expected this afternoon.  Freezing levels will rise to 4000’ this morning.  A weak cold front swings in tonight which will temporarily drop the freezing levels and diminish the snow.  

Strong, warm SW flow fills in tomorrow morning pushing freezing levels above 5000’.  The moisture will likely start out as snow and then turn to rain by noon or so.    

The Long Range:  The temperatures keep rising into Monday with a soggy start to the week.   A cold front comes to the rescue on Tuesday with high pressure expected to bring dry and clear weather for the second half of the week.     

24hr values daily 4am to 4am.

Precipitation: Today 24hr water:  .5 snow: 4-6 Tomorrow’s 24hr water:  1-1.25 snow: 0-2 Trend and Timing: Moderate snow this morning with diminishing showers tonight.  Snow changing to rain begins after 4am tomorrow.

Temperature: Low: 24    High: 34 Freezing level:  4000’, 3500’, 5000’. Trend and Timing:    Freezing levels hit 4k mid morning then drop after sunset tonight.   Freezing levels rise to 5500’ by noon or so tomorrow.

Winds Base:  10-20 W Ridge Top: 15-25 W gust +40 Trend and Timing: Strong westerly winds kick in around noon today and sustain into the night. Models have 5000’ winds gusting to 60knots around 4pm today.

AC for day crew only January 27

6:15 ABS January 27

May the convergence continue. Get it while it's good!

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST - UPDATE

You have got to love the Puget Sound Convergence Zone –  

The snow will lighten up a bit this afternoon and then pick back up tonight.

The forecasted warm front arrives early tomorrow morning.   Freezing levels, with the aid of east flow, should keep the moisture in the form of snow through the day tomorrow. 

As for Sunday:   Freezing levels are still on track to rise above 5000’ sometime during the day rain likely below 4500’.   Freezing levels bump up to 7000’ on Monday.  Monday looks to be relatively dry during the day with temperatures in the 40’s.  

Precipitation forecast from 4am this morning through 4am tomorrow:

Today 24hr

water: .75 - 1  snow: 8-12   (keep in mind we received 4” of this already)

Enjoy,

jM    

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day: 0630 Friday

The Snapshot:   Moderate snow showers today.  Windy and warmer with moderate snow will lead us into tomorrow.  Rain is expected on Sunday.  

The Science

Current Observations:  .51” of water produced 9” of new snow overnight - poofda.  The temperature profile is 20 top / 26 base.  The winds are westerly and gusting 5-15mph under convergence flow.  The barometer has bumped up to 1011mb’s.   Satellite radar has moderate snow showers falling in the mountains.     

The Forecast:  Cool westerly convergence flow will keep snow showers falling in the mountains today.  A low pressure system will bring a pair of warm fronts through the region early tomorrow morning and then again on Sunday.  Freezing levels should be low enough for the precipitation to be snow tomorrow, not so lucky on Sunday.   

The Long Range:   Freezing levels jump above 5000’ on Sunday and remain high through Monday.  Models differ in the amounts of rain between 4am Sunday and 4am Tuesday – somewhere between 1-2”.   Cooler NW flow enters the scene early Tuesday morning for a return of snow.    

24hr values daily 4am to 4am.

Precipitation: Today 24hr water: .5 -.75  snow: 5-8 Tomorrow’s 24hr water: .25-.5  snow:1-4 Trend and Timing: Moderate snow showers today with increasing snow after midnight.

Temperature: Low:  22   High: 28 Freezing level: 2500’-3000’ Trend and Timing:    Freezing levels will inch up to 3000’ today.  Freezing level are expected to reach 3500’ tomorrow and then +5000’ on Sunday.

Winds Base: 5-10 W shifting E Ridge Top: 5-15 W Shifting E Trend and Timing: Westerly  winds today will shift easterly just prior to the arrival of the front tonight.

Mid-day WEATHER FORECAST

No changes to this morning’s 24 hr forecast.   Snow showers (water: .5  snow: 3-5)

 with freezing levels @ +- 2000’  through tomorrow.

Heavy snow arrives late tomorrow night or early Saturday morning (exact timing is still in question)   At the is the point, freezing levels hold at or just below 4000’ through Saturday with some east flow love.   Freezing level bump up to 5000’ early Sunday morning with heavy precipitation. 

A possible silver lining:  Today’s model run hints at the possibility of the moisture being pushed north of Stevens Pass on Sunday.   We will hope that trend stays on track.  

We will have a better grip on the details and timing tomorrow. 

jM 

8:00 Fri Jan 26th ABS

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day: 0630 Thursday

The Snapshot: Cool temperatures with snow showers will persist through tomorrow.  Heavy snow with rising freezing levels starts the weekend.   

The Science

Current Observations: 5” of new snow fell overnight with the temperatures falling nicely into the lower 20’s.  The barometer is low at 1002 mb’s, the winds are westerly and light.  Mr. Radar has spotty snow showers in the mountains with a heavy band of precipitation moving north up the coastline.  

The Forecast:  An unstable atmosphere under cool westerly flow will keep light to moderate snow showers falling in the mountains through tomorrow. 

Focus turns to a strong low-pressure system developing off of the California coast.  Models have this storm tracking up the coast over the next 24-36hrs. As with most systems from the south, it will have a warm component.  

There are two distinct warm fronts with this system; the first arrives late Friday night with this starting out as heavy snow.  Strong SW flow will kick another warm front in late Saturday night. This will push freezing levels above 5000’ with heavy rain expected on Sunday. 

The Long Range:  As it pains me to write this, there is a high likelihood of a significant rain event on Sunday and Monday.   L 

24hr values daily 4am to 4am.

Precipitation: Today 24hr water: .5  snow: 3-5 Tomorrow’s 24hr water: .5-.75   snow: 5-7 Trend and Timing: Snow showers will persist through today and most of tomorrow.

Temperature: Low: 18     High: 26 Freezing level: +- 2000’ Trend and Timing:    Freezing levels have fallen to around 2000’ and are expected to stick around that elevation through tomorrow night.

Winds Base: 0-5 W Ridge Top: 5-10 WSW Trend and Timing: Westerly flow with a slight tilt towards SW will be the wind pattern through tomorrow.

8:00 Thur Jan 25th ABS

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day: 1000 Wednesday.

The Snapshot: Snow showers with cooling temperatures will continue for the rest of the week.  More storms arrive over the weekend.  

The Science

Current Observations: The snow has diminished to light showers.  The temperature is near freezing.  The warm front passed a few hours ago with the following cold front just making land fall. 

The Forecast:  The approaching cold front will push snow showers into the mountain through tomorrow.  Temperatures will stabilize around freezing today.  Once the cold front move east of the mountain later today, freezing levels will fall and the snow showers will persist.    

The Long Range:  More organized frontal systems lifts up from the SW late Friday night and then again on Sunday.      

24hr values daily 4am to 4am.

Precipitation: Today 24hr water: .25  snow: 2-4 Tomorrow’s 24hr water: .5  snow: 4-6 Trend and Timing: Light snow shower will persist through tomorrow.

Temperature: Low: 26     High:32 Freezing level: 4000’ – 2500’ Trend and Timing:    Freezing levels will  hover around 4000’ today and then fall to 2500’ early tomorrow morning.

Winds Base: 0-5 E shifting SW Ridge Top: 5-10 SW Trend and Timing: East flow will slowly erode today with SW flow aloft kicking in tonight.

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day:  0500 Wednesday

The Snapshot:  Snow continues today with cooling this evening.

Current Observations: 1.24” of water and 13” of snow fell during the last 24hrs.

As suspected, the frontal system stalled last night. The warm front is just now entering the mountains.   Temperatures have begun rise with Tye Mill temperatures at 30 and the base areas temperatures a bit cooler at 26.  Winds are shifting to SW and the barometer has dropped to 1005mb. 

 A detailed forecast will be posted mid-morning today. 

AC filled up quick,cant take any more volunteers

6:15 Wed Jan 24th ABS

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day: 0630 Tuesday

The Snapshot: There is a winter storm warning for the mountains today.  1-2 feet of snow will be possible.  Sporty!  

The Science

Current Observations:  5” of snow fell yesterday with no new snow overnight.  High clouds are beginning to moving in with temperatures in the mid 20’s.  The winds have shifted easterly and the barometer is at 1017mb’s and falling.   Satellite imagery has the leading edge of the approaching storm just hitting Seattle.   

The Forecast:  The storm is expected to enter the mountains this morning with heavy snow and rising temperatures expected through the day.  The storm is moving slowly and may stall prior to hitting the western slopes – so the timing of all this is suspect.

East flow and cooler air aloft will do it best to shelter Stevens Pass from the warm air advection.  If this holds true, we shouldn’t see much in the way of rain.  The freezing levels are expected to peak to 4-4500’ late tonight and then begin to fall through the day tomorrow.

 The following cold front will swing in sometime tomorrow morning which will shift the precipitation to showers and begin to drop the temperatures.       

The Long Range:  The large low-pressure system churning in the Gulf of Alaska will continue to drive storms into the PNW through the weekend.    

24hr values daily 4am to 4am.

Precipitation: Today 24hr water: 1-1.5  snow: 10-15 Tomorrow’s 24hr water: .5-.75  snow: 4-6 Trend and Timing: Heavy snow arrives this morning and will shift to showers early tomorrow morning.

Temperature: Low:  24   High: 32 Freezing level: 3000’ 4500’ Trend and Timing:    Freezing levels will slowly rise over the next 12-24hrs peaking near 4500’ late tonight.  Temperatures then fall in the wake of the cold front tomorrow.

Winds Base: 0-5 E Ridge Top: 5-10 E shifting WSW Trend and Timing: East flow should hold through the night with winds shifting WSW in the wake of the passing cold front tomorrow.