STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Well, even though it’s still snowing, the Stevens Pass Mountain weather forecasting has come to a close for the season. L

I want to thank you for your support, we had on average, 400 hits a day with a historical user total of 273,778.     

May your summer be full of safe adventures and we will see you all back in the fall. 

John and Dan

Stevens Pass Mountain Weather Forecasters. 

8:00 Start No ABS Monday-Wednesday for teardown

Mountain Weather Forecast

Time and Day:  0715 Sunday

The Snapshot: Warm, sunny, and dry to finish the 2018 operating season!

The Science

Current Observations:  1” of snow fell during the day yesterday at seasonally cool temperatures. A clear night with cool air in place lead to temperatures dropping well below freezing. It’s currently 28 degrees in the base area and 24 on the upper mountain. Winds are light from the west and the barometer has risen to 1024mb’s.

The Forecast: A strong high pressure ridge begins building today. Temperatures should rise rapidly under clear skies. Easterly flow through the passes should develop Sunday night, leading to light temperature inversions. They should be minimal with warm air in place everywhere this time of year.

The Long Range: Sunny and warm is the story for the rest of the week. Freezing levels will climb further on Tuesday and Wednesday, likely reaching 11-12k’!

24hr values daily 4am to 4am.

Precipitation: Sunday’s   24hr water:  0   Snow: 0 Monday’s   24hr water: 0     Snow: 0 Trend and Timing: No precip expected for the next several days.

Temperature: Low:  24   High: 45 Snow Level: 6000’ Trend and Timing:    Rapid warming during the day Sunday, warmer Monday.

Winds Base: W, then E 5-10 Ridge Top: W 5-10 Trend and Timing: Variable winds Sunday morning should turn easterly overnight and Monday.

8:03 Start No ABS Sunday April 22nd

Vote for Pedro. 

Mountain Weather Forecast

Time and Day:  1000 Saturday

The Snapshot: Light snow showers and mostly cloudy, cool, today. Warm and sunny on Sunday.

The Science

Current Observations:  A strong inch of snow fell overnight, with temperatures falling down to 31 in the base area and 27 on the upper mountain overnight. Winds are moderate from the west, and the barometer has been steady.

The Forecast: A quick moving cool trough is transiting Washington today. Westerly flow behind it will maintain mostly cloudy skies Saturday. Precipitation should end after noon. High pressure rebuilds overnight Saturday, bringing a return to warm weather and clear skies.

The Long Range: A strong high pressure ridge will be over the PNW next week with sunny skies and freezing levels reaching 10,000’. The other kind of spring.

24hr values daily 4am to 4am.

Precipitation: Saturday’s   24hr water:  .1-.25   Snow: 1-3” Sunday’s   24hr water: 0     Snow: 0 Trend and Timing: Snow showers should end Saturday afternoon. Sunday will be dry.

Temperature: Low:  27   High: 35 Snow Level: 4000’ Trend and Timing:    Daytime warming will likely bump temps above freezing across the mountain, but not by much and not for long.

Winds Base: W 5-10 Ridge Top: WNW 5-15 Trend and Timing: Winds will fizzle out midday Saturday and become light overnight.

8am Start No ABS April 21

Mountain Weather Forecast

Time and Day:  0735 Friday

The Snapshot: Partly cloudy and mild Friday. Rain/snow mix to start Saturday, transitioning to moderate snow during the day.

The Science

Current Observations:  No precip in the past 48 hours. Temperatures cooled to 32 across the mountain overnight. Winds are light from the west with mostly clear skies and approaching clouds from the west. The barometer has been steady around 1020 for the past 24 hours.  

The Forecast: A quick moving trough and cold front are approaching Washington State this morning. Increasing clouds will be the main result during the day Friday. Precip starts after midnight, likely beginning as rain. Snow levels fall behind the front, dropping to pass level. A moderate shot of snow is possible mid-Saturday morning.

The Long Range: The trough moves east on Sunday with high pressure rebuilding. A prolonged dry and sunny period looks likely beginning Sunday.

24hr values daily 4am to 4am.

Precipitation: Friday’s   24hr water: .25    Snow: 0-2” Saturday’s   24hr water: .25-.5     Snow: 3-5” Trend and Timing: Light rain will begin after midnight, transitioning to snow early Saturday.

Temperature: Low: 33    High: 45 Freezing Level: 7000’-3500’ Trend and Timing:    Warm daytime temps, cooling rapidly overnight with the approaching front.

Winds Base: W 0-5, then 10-15 Ridge Top: W 5-10, then SW 15-25 Trend and Timing: Light winds until after midnight, then increasing and turning SW.

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Stevens Pass Mountain Weather Forecast

Day and Time: Thursday 0900

The Snapshot:  It is good to see the sun, eh?  Clear and dry spring-like weather will be on tap through tomorrow.  Fresh snow will start the day on Saturday with the sun and dry conditions returning for the final day of the season.   

The Science

Current Observations:  It is a beautiful clear morning here at Stevens Pass with the temperatures on the upper mountain already reaching into the 40^0’s . The barometer is 1019mb’s and rising.  The satellite image has sunshine and dry conditions throughout the PNW. 

The Forecast:   This ridge of high pressure over the region will keep the sky clear and dry through tomorrow.  The ridge is expected to flatten and drift south tomorrow which will open the door for a weak system to track in on Saturday morning with snow. 

A cold front with cool NW air to tow will produce one more shot of snow for the season.  This system is fairly weak with a high pressure ridge hot on it heals. We should see a few inches of snow by noon or so with drying starting Saturday afternoon.

The Long Range:   High pressure rebounds on Sunday for a partly sunny and dry end to the season.

    

24hr values daily 4am to 4am.

Precipitation: Today 24hr water: 0  snow:0 Tomorrow’s 24hr water:.25   snow: 1-3 Trend and Timing: Dry today and tomorrow, snow arrives early Saturday morning.

Temperature: Low: 30    High: 50 Freezing level: 7000’ – 4500’ Trend and Timing: Warm daytime temperature today, cooling off nicely through the night.

Winds Base: 0-5 W Ridge Top: 0-10 W Trend and Timing: Very light westerly winds today and tomorrow.

8am start No ABS Friday the 20th

Mid-Day Weather Update

Mid-Day Weather Update 

Time: 1000 am

Changes to morning forecast:   The models weren’t quite lining up with what the radar was showing this morning.  I was curious if the precipitation totals would be upgraded with the new model run.  And they have.

The mechanisms remain the same with increased precipitation.

High pressure is still expected to bring an end to the precipitation early Wednesday morning.  

New values:

24hr values daily 4am to 4am.

Precipitation: Today 24hr water: 1+  snow: 10-14 Tomorrow’s 24hr water: .75-1  snow: 6-10 Trend and Timing: Snow will increase today and continue through early Wednesday morning.

Temperature: Low:26     High: 30 Freezing level: 3500-4000’ Trend and Timing:    Freezing levels will settle around 3700’ today and remain around that level through tomorrow.

Winds Base: 5-10 W Ridge Top: 5-15 W Trend and Timing: Westerly winds will strengthen after midnight tonight.

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time: 0700 Sunday

The Snapshot:  Light high mountain snow and pass level/valley rain showers with the temperature peaking near 40 degrees can be expected today.  Heavy snow is being cued up for tomorrow’s employee ride day.

The Science

Current Observations: Well, last night’s storm seemed to have lost its punch.  This morning’s radar has light snow showers gathering along the Cascade Crest and tracking SW/NE. 

1” of snow was squeezed out of .63” of water over the last 24hrs. The temperature profile is 33 base / 30 ridge, the barometer has dropped to 1010mb’s. The winds are light and out of the west.  

The Forecast:  The dropping barometer is the indicator of the low-pressure system moving into the region.  This will provide a wide variety of weather over the next 24-36 hrs: for today, warm daytime temperatures with developing east/offshore flow and light intermittent precipitation. 

For tomorrow, cool unstable NW flow fills in as the low-pressure system heads for Canada.  Moderate to heavy snow can be expected tomorrow and Tuesday.   

The Long Range:   Wednesday and Thursday will be a drying out period with more rainy and snowy sport on Friday.    

24hr values daily 4am to 4am.

Precipitation: Today 24hr water: .25+  snow: 1-4 Tomorrow’s 24hr water: .75-1  snow: 8-10 Trend and Timing: Light rain showers today shifting to moderate to heavy snow early tomorrow morning. (after 2am)

Temperature: Low: 28    High:40 Freezing level: 5000 – 3500’ Trend and Timing:    Freezing levels will peak near 5000’ again today and then fall below 4000’ around midnight or so.

Winds Base: 0-5 E Ridge Top: 5-10 ESE Trend and Timing: Light westerly flow this morning will shift easterly today.  Some strong westerly winds may develop through the early morning hours tomorrow.

6:00AM START for SUNDAY - ABS

More spring pow to play with tomorrow.

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time:  1030 Saturday

The Snapshot:  This moderate to heavy mixed rain and snow game will continue through the weekend.

The Science

Current Observations: 1.42” of water produce 13” of snow overnight.  It is snowing with the temperature profile at 34base/32ridge.  The winds are WSW at 5-10 mph.  The barometer is stuck on 1019mb’s.   The radar has a long fetch of moisture stretching out to the SW tracking NE. 

The Forecast:  Unstable SW flow has filled in behind the warm front that passed over Stevens Pass about an hour ago.  A steady stream of moisture will continue to track through the Central Cascades with moderate to heavy precipitation expected through the night.   There will be a short lull in the precipitation tomorrow morning with another shot of moderate to heavy moisture (snow) early Monday morning.  

The Long Range:  The precipitation machine keeps cranking through Tuesday.  Models are starting to come into alignment with high pressure building over the region on Wednesday for a taste of actual spring.

    

24hr values daily 4am to 4am.

Precipitation: Today 24hr water: .75 -1  snow:  5-10 base area / upper mountain split. Tomorrow’s 24hr water: .5-.75  snow: 2-5 Trend and Timing: Mixed snow/rain again today below 4500’.  The precipitation will intensify later this afternoon with moderate to heavy mixed rain and snow through the night.

Temperature: Low: 28    High: 40 Freezing level: 5000’ – 4000’ Trend and Timing:    Freezing levels will peak near 5000’ this afternoon and then fall back to +-4000 after midnight.  Daytime surfaces temperatures could peak near 40 today and then even a bit higher tomorrow.

Winds Base: 0-5 SSE Ridge Top: 5-10 SW Trend and Timing: Wind will be generally SW through the night.

6:00 Sat April 14th ABS

Mid-Day Weather Update

Time: 1030  Friday

Changes to morning forecast:   No changes to this morning forecast.

The approaching warm front is on its way with heavy precipitation in tow.  The freezing level is on the rise with 32f temps being recorded throughout the resort.

For the moment, the surface east flow is sheltering us from the warmer SW flow aloft.   The warm front is expected to move over us in the next few hours or so.   Once that happens, the freezing level will spike near 5000’ and then slightly fall to around 4500’shortly after sunset.  

Snow accumulations will vary greatly in the 4-5000’ elevation band.  

Precip values remain the same:

Precipitation:

Today 24hr

water: 1-1.25  snow: 6-10

Tomorrow’s 24hr

water: .75 -1  snow: 4-8

jM

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Day and Time: 0730 Friday

The Snapshot:  It will be a very wet day today with heavy mixed rain and snow.     This mixed bag of wet weather will persist through the weekend.  

The Science

Current Observations:  It is snowing lightly with 4” of new snow on the ground.   The base area temperature is 30 with the ridge top temperature at 28^0f .   The barometer has risen to 1017mb ’s with the winds westerly 5-10mph.  The radar has the next batch of heavy moisture heading our way.  

The Forecast:  A strong warm front will bring yet another day of moderate to heavy precipitation.  Freezing levels are expected to rise and fall between 4000’ and 5500’ through this entire storm event.  How much snow?  Hum, that is the big question.  The upper mountain will likely see some good snow accumulation with the lower mountain in the mixing zone.  This moderate to heavy mixed precipitation will persist through the weekend.

The Long Range: The temperature roller coaster with periods of heavy precipitation will continue into early next week. There is some reprieve starting to show up late next week with some potential high pressure entering the region.  

     

24hr values daily 4am to 4am.

Precipitation: Today 24hr water: 1-1.25  snow: 6-10 Tomorrow’s 24hr water: .75 -1  snow: 4-8 Trend and Timing: Heavy precipitation today and tomorrow.

Temperature: Low: 30    High: 34 Freezing level: 3500’ – 5500’ Trend and Timing:    Freezing levels will peak near 5000’ this afternoon and then again tomorrow.

Winds Base: 5-10 ESSE / W Ridge Top: 5-15 WSW Trend and Timing: WSW upper-level winds will be gusty today with weak east flow at the surface.