7:30 if you did not work Sunday. Not an April Fool's joke, Richard.
March 31, 2019
Mountain Weather Forecast
Stevens Pass
Mountain Weather Forecast
Day and Time: Sunday 0715
Current Observations:
24hr
Precipitation: 0”
Pass
temperature: 34 base / 36 mid mtn
Pass
level winds: Light from the west
Barometer:
steady at 1022
Sky:
Clear
Radar:
Dry across the PNW
The Forecast: Mostly sunny and mild today. Increasing
clouds tonight.
The Science:
Upper level split flow will be in place for the next few days. With Washington
between the northern and southern branches of the jet stream, weak high
pressure will bring another day of passing clouds. Afternoon convective showers
may pop up in a few places, but no
significant precipitation is expected.
Long
Range: By Tuesday the
jet stream begins to bring more zonal flow into the PNW, with an embedded low
pressure system. Some moisture and cloudy skies can be expected Wednesday and
Thursday. Freezing levels are looking to be near our ridgetop elevations, so
mixed forms of precip can be expected. Details will emerge on that in the
coming days.
Values from 4am today through
4am tomorrow.
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Precipitation:
Today 24hr
water: 0 snow: 0
Tomorrow’s 24hr
water: 0 snow: 0
Trend and Timing:
No precipitation expected for the next
few days.
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Temperature:
Low: 34 High: 50
Freezing level: 7000’
Trend and Timing:
Diurnal pattern will continue.
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Winds
Base: Variable and light
Ridge Top: W 5-10
Trend and Timing:
Winds may shift to offshore, becoming
east thru the Pass early Monday morning.
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March 30, 2019
MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST
Stevens Pass
Mountain Weather Forecast
Day and Time: Saturday 0700
Current Observations:
24hr Precipitation: 0
Temperature profile: 32b, 33r
Pass level winds: calm,
westerly
Barometer: 1026mb’s
steady
Sky: clear
Radar: dry
The Forecast: The weekend will be mostly dry with
afternoon clouds. Temperatures will peak
near 50.
Long
Range: Clouds move in on Monday with rain expected on Tuesday and Wednesday.
The Science: A weak high
pressure ridge will keep the weather warm and mostly dry through Monday. Typical daytime warming will produce building afternoon
clouds and a chance of a shower or two.
The pattern shifts next
week with a better organized storm track developing. A low pressure system with
an embedded warm front is expected to track in from the SW late Monday
night. Rain is likely on Tuesday and
Wednesday with freezing levels +6000’. Thursday
will be an interim day with another round of rain expected on Thursday/Friday.
Forecast confidence: good
Values from 4am today through
4am tomorrow.
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Precipitation:
Today 24hr
water: <.10 snow:
0
Tomorrow’s 24hr
water: 0 snow: 0
Trend and Timing:
A very light shower or two will be
possible today and tomorrow.
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Temperature:
Low: 34 High: 50
Freezing level: + 7000’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will climb above 7000’
today with mild temperatures hanging around.
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Winds
Base: 0-5 E/W
Ridge Top: 0-10 E/W
Trend and Timing:
Winds will be mostly calm with
east/west flow flipping from time to time.
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March 29, 2019
MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST
Stevens Pass
Mountain Weather Forecast
Day and Time: Friday 0700
Current Observations:
24hr Precipitation: 0
Temperature profile: 35 base, 34
ridge
Pass level winds: calm, westerly
Barometer: 1020mb’s
and slowly rising
Sky: mostly
clear
Radar: You will have to travel the
Blue Mountains, east of Walla Walla for some fresh snow.
The Forecast: A tad warmer today with a chance of an
afternoon shower or two. Clear mornings
with an afternoon cloud show will be the pattern through the weekend.
Long
Range: This fickle weather will continue through next week with weak systems
moving through every few days or so. Freezing levels will remain above Pass levels,
so no snow expected.
The Science:
Weak mid-level ridging will provide for
mostly dry conditions for the mountains.
Diurnal temperature swings will drive good convection for afternoon
cloud development.
Models continue their conflict
for next week’s weather. Safe to say, there will be weather.
Forecast confidence: good through the weekend, fair
next week.
Values from 4am today through
4am tomorrow.
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Precipitation:
Today 24hr
water: .10 snow: 0
Tomorrow’s 24hr
water: 0 snow: 0
Trend and Timing:
There will be slight chance of an
afternoon shower, but dry for the most part.
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Temperature:
Low: 34 High: 48
Freezing level: 5500’-7000’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will remain well above
pass level through the weekend. Daytime
temperatures will peak in the upper 40’s with nighttime temperatures
struggling to drop below freezing.
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Winds
Base: 0-5 W
Ridge Top: 0-10 W
Trend and Timing:
Winds will be mostly calm and out of
the west.
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March 28, 2019
MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST
Stevens Pass
Mountain Weather Forecast
Day and Time: Thursday 0630
Current Observations:
24hr Precipitation: 0
Temperature profile: 31 base, 31 ridge
Pass level winds: Calm, westerly
Barometer: 1015mb’s and rising
Sky: mostly clear
Radar: dry conditions in the mountains with mixed rain and snow falling on
the Waterville plateau.
The Forecast: Broken clouds with a chance of light
passing rain showers will be the weather pattern through the weekend. Early morning temperatures will struggle to
drop below freezing with daytime temperatures peaking in the upper 40’s to 50.
Long
Range: This fairly typical spring weather of light passing
rain showers and sun breaks will likely continue into next week.
The Science:
Models continue to have completely different views of what will happen over the
next 3-5 days. In general, the
atmosphere will remain unstable with very weak pressure gradients. The convection process is underway which could
produce some late afternoon thunderstorms.
Geek Speak: Convection - The sun heats the earth surface, then, when cooler air (say, from snow) comes in contact with it, the air warms and rises, creating and upward current. That current can result in wind, building cumulus clouds and possibly thunderstorms.
Forecast confidence: fair.
Values from 4am today through
4am tomorrow.
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Precipitation:
Today 24hr
water: .10 snow: 0
Tomorrow’s 24hr
water: .10 snow: 0
Trend and Timing:
Light passing rain showers possible.
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Temperature:
Low: 32 High:45
Freezing level: > 5000’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will rise above 5000’
today and peak +6500’ tomorrow and through the weekend.
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Winds
Base: 0-5 WSW
Ridge Top: 0-10 SW
Trend and Timing:
Winds will be generally calm with SW
flow aloft.
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March 27, 2019
MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST
Stevens Pass
Mountain Weather Forecast
Day and Time: Wednesday 0700
Current Observations:
24hr Precipitation: .04 swe,
1” pow
Temperature profile: 27 base, 25 ridge
Pass level winds: calm, easterly
Barometer:1013mb’s slowly falling
Sky: clear
Radar: the northern half of the state
is clear with clouds and moisture to the south of Yakima.
The Forecast: Increasing clouds with temperatures pushing
into the 40s’ today. Rain changing to
mixed snow will move in tonight.
Long
Range: Light passing showers with clear periods will be
pattern leading into the weekend.
The Science:
Washington State is caught between high
pressure over the coastal mountains of BC and low pressure stationed off of the
Oregon coast. Couple this with a
cut-off low forming over the inland NW, well let’s just say it will a mixed bag
of sun, rain, snow and wind for the next few days.
The GFS, Canadian, and the
ECMWF models all disagree on what is to come for the weekend. For meteorologists this means don’t even
guess.
Forecast confidence: good for next 24hrs, poor to fair
beyond Friday.
Values from 4am today through
4am tomorrow.
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Precipitation:
Today 24hr
water: .25 snow: 1
Tomorrow’s 24hr
water: <.25 snow: trace
Trend and Timing:
The moisture begins after sunset
tonight with light showers expected through the day tomorrow.
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Temperature:
Low: 28 High: 44
Freezing level: 5500’ – 4000’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will peak above 5000’
this afternoon and fall to 4000’ early tomorrow morning.
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Winds
Base: 5-10 E gusty
Ridge Top: 5-15 E
Trend and Timing:
Easterly flow will strengthen today.
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March 26, 2019
MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST
Stevens Pass
Mountain Weather Forecast
Day and Time: Tuesday 0630
Current Observations:
24hr Precipitation: light
snow .27swe, 2” of snow
Temperature profile: 31 base, 27
ridge
Pass level winds: light with some gusts, westerly
Barometer: 1013mb’s and rising
Sky: OC
Radar: most of the activity is moving into the North Cascades with drying to
the south of Stevens Pass.
The Forecast: Diminishing snow showers this morning
with partial clearing through the day. Tomorrow will be partly cloudy/sunny
with another wave of moisture lifting up through the region on Thursday.
Long
Range: The weekend appears to be mostly dry and sunny.
The Science:
The rising barometer points to the mid-level high pressure ridge building along
the SE slopes of the Cascades this morning.
The moisture will quickly end with the morning fog and mid-level clouds dissipating
through the day.
Another weak low pressure
system will track through the region on Thursday for more clouds and light
precipitation. High pressure moves in on
Friday for a clear, warm and dry start to the weekend.
Forecast confidence: Good.
Values from 4am today through
4am tomorrow.
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Precipitation:
Today 24hr
water: .10 snow: 1
Tomorrow’s 24hr
water: 0 snow: 0
Trend and Timing:
Drying today with little moisture
expected tomorrow.
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Temperature:
Low: 28 High: 40
Freezing level: 5000’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will bump up to 5000’
this afternoon with some night time cooling expected.
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Winds
Base: 0-5 W shifting E
Ridge Top: 5-10 W shifting E
Trend and Timing:
Winds will be light and westerly today
and then shift easterly overnight.
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March 25, 2019
MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST
Stevens Pass
Mountain Weather Forecast
Day and Time: Monday 0700
Current Observations:
24hr Precipitation: .19”swe,
0” of snow
Temperature profile: 35base, 30 ridge
Pass level winds: light, easterly
Barometer: 1016mb’s and falling
Sky: partly cloudy
Radar: the moisture has cleared out of the state.
The Forecast: Today will be mostly dry with increasing
clouds. Another round of mixed
precipitation moves in tonight.
Long
Range: Tuesday and Wednesday
will be mostly dry with more mixed snow and rain showers arriving on
Thursday. Temperatures will remain seasonally
average in the mid 30’s.
The Science:
The atmosphere will remain unstable with waves of moisture moving through the
region every few days or so. Freezing
levels will bounce between 4000’ and 5000’ with good daytime temperatures
recovery. No significant snow
accumulation is expected.
This pattern is likely to
continue with the stationary low parked off of the PNW coast for the next
+-7days.
Forecast confidence: Good.
Values from 4am today through
4am tomorrow.
Precipitation:
Today 24hr
water: .25 snow: 1-2
Tomorrow’s 24hr
water: .10 snow: 0
Trend and Timing:
Light snow arrives after 4pm today and
diminishes after 4am tomorrow.
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Temperature:
Low: 32 High: 40
Freezing level: 5000’ – 4000’
Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will peak near 5000’
today and then fall to 4000’ overnight.
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Winds
Base: 0-10 E
Ridge Top: 5-10 E shifting W
Trend and Timing:
East flow will strengthen today and
then shift westerly tomorrow.
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