Good morning all you grand mountain folks.
Vail Resorts has announced that all Vail Resorts will be closed for the season.
Thus, weather forecasting will also be done as well.
Until next time, everyone be safe, healthy and get some high mountain social distancing in when ever you can.
John Meriwether
March 17, 2020
March 16, 2020
MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST
Stevens Pass Mountain Weather
Forecast
Monday, March 16, 2020, 1100
California is finally getting snow with Tahoe receiving close to 4’ over
the last few days. “Just sayin”
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Current Observations:
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24hr Precipitation: 0
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Temperature profile: 23 base, 33 ridge
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Pass level winds:
light, north easterly
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Barometer: 1020mb’s and rising
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Sky: clear
and sunny
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Radar: dry and clear throughout the State
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The Forecast: This week will start
out mostly clear with daytime temperature reaching into the mid to upper 40’s.
The Science: As you can tell by the current 10 degree temperature
inversion, our brief cold snap is ending. A strong high pressure system parked over the
interior west will keep the PNW dry, clear and relatively warm through at least
Thursday. Temperatures will move towards
a diurnal pattern with a good melt-freeze snow cycle developing.
A low pressure cell will track down the coast
later this week for a chance of some light mixed rain and snow showers for the
Central Cascades.
Long Range. Clouds move in on Thursday with a chance of
some light passing mixed rain and snow showers on Friday and Saturday.
Confidence: Good.
Values from 4am today through 4am tomorrow.
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Precipitation:
Today
24hr
water:0 snow:0
Tomorrow’s
24hr
water:0 snow:0
Trend and
Timing:
0
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Temperature:
Low: 26 High: 45
Freezing
level: 3000’ – 6000’
Trend and
Timing:
Freezing levels will push up above Pass level today. Temperatures could hit 50f with the aid of
the sun this afternoon.
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Winds
Base: 0-5
ENE
Ridge
Top: 0-10 E
Trend and
Timing:
Weak east flow will remain intact for the next few days.
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March 14, 2020
MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST
Stevens Pass Mountain Weather Forecast
Date: Saturday, March 14, 2020
Current Observations:
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24hr Precipitation: 5” snow /
.45” SWE
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Temperature profile: 21 base / 16 mid mtn
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Pass level winds: Moderate
easterly
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Barometer: Steady at 1002
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Sky: Overcast, snowing lightly
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Radar: Widespread showers across the
PNW, heaviest at the WA/OR border
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The Forecast: Cold and mostly cloudy today with gusty east winds, becoming clear overnight, sunny and cold Sunday.
The Science: A large low
pressure trough arrived from the north yesterday and continued south overnight,
with the frontal band now sitting just south of the WA/OR border. The center of
the low passed well to the west of the Crest, so precipitation and snow
accumulation near and west of the crest was unimpressive, however the
circulation around the low lead to an upslope snow event on the east side of
the crest (“wrap around moisture”). To illustrate this unusual pattern: Mission Ridge received 15” of snow overnight
while Mt. Baker recorded 1”. Cold air has intruded with the front and the
pressure gradient driven by the location of the low is bringing gusty easterly
winds thru all Cascade passes this morning.
The low slowly drifts south along the coast today and tomorrow,
while high pressure builds in the Pacific. This setup will lead to Fraser River
outflow out of BC, bringing east winds and cool temperatures across most of
Washington, particularly the northern interior near Bellingham. As the low continues south, snow showers will
end across the northern half of Washington this morning, and in all areas by
tonight. Sunday will be cool and mostly sunny across the state.
Long Range: Stationary high pressure
in the Pacific will deflect any storms well to our north most of next week, the
week will start out cold but temperatures will come up quickly Monday afternoon
and Tuesday with freezing levels between 4000’ and 5000’ the remainder of the
week.
Confidence: Good
Values from 4am today through 4am
tomorrow.
Precipitation:
Today 24hr
water: >.10 snow: trace
Tomorrow’s 24hr
water: 0 snow: 0
Trend and Timing:
Light
snow showers becoming very light and ending Saturday, dry on Sunday.
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Temperature:
Low: 15 High: 24
Freezing level: 1000’
Trend and Timing:
Cool
temps all day, further cooling tonight.
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Winds
Base: E 5-10
Ridge Top: E 15-25
Trend and Timing:
Steady
east winds today with higher gusts possible in the afternoon.
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March 13, 2020
MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST
Stevens Pass Mountain Weather
Forecast
Friday, March 13, 2020, 0900
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Current Observations:
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24hr Precipitation: .01 swe,
1” of snow
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Temperature profile: 26 base,
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Pass level winds:
light to moderate easterly
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Barometer: 1009mb’s and falling
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Sky: obscure and snowing
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Radar: widespread moisture over
western Washington tracking SSE.
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The Forecast: Snow today with
falling temperatures and gusty winds, snow tapers off early tomorrow morning
with clear and sunny condition expected by Sunday.
The Science: The anticipated low pressure system is making
its move this morning spreading precipitation into the region. This storm has a few components that may
prevent Stevens Pass from getting significant snow. First, it is tracking north to south along
the coast, so the direct impact will be to the southern and eastern Cascades. Second, it is moving fast, and thus the
period of precipitation will be fairly short lived. Third, a cold, dry air mass is driving in
from the NE – this will aid in drying the upper atmosphere thus, the moisture
content is fairly low. Once the storm
exits the region tomorrow, the cold dry air will settle in with clear skies and
low temperatures for the remainder of the weekend.
Long Range. Next week will mostly dry with
warmer air returning. There are no
significant moisture events in the long range outlooks.
Confidence: Moderate to the questionable storm track.
Values from 4am today through 4am tomorrow.
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Precipitation:
Today
24hr
water: .25
-.5 snow: 3-5
Tomorrow’s
24hr
water: .10
snow: trace
Trend and
Timing:
Light snow through the day with the moisture tapering off after 4am
tomorrow.
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Temperature:
Low: 14 High: 24
Freezing
level:3000’ – 0 (sea-level)
Trend and
Timing:
Freezing levels will fall to sea- level over the next 24hrs. Low temperatures at the Pass will be in the
low teens or even briefly touch single digits.
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Winds
Base: 5-15 E
gusty
Ridge
Top: 10-25 east with gust 40+ possible
Trend and
Timing:
East winds will strengthen this afternoon with gusty ridgetop winds
likely.
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March 12, 2020
MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST
Stevens Pass Mountain Weather
Forecast
Thursday, March 12, 2020, 1000
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Current Observations:
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24hr Precipitation: 0
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Temperature profile: 24 base, 20 ridge
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Pass level winds:
light westerly
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Barometer:
1021mb’ and holding
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Sky: overcast
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Radar: There are no precipitation
echo’s on this morning’s regional radar
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The Forecast: Today will be dry
with sun breaks. Light snow arrives
mid-day tomorrow with seasonally cold temperatures.
The Science: The clouds will begin to increase today in response to the low pressure systems
developing off shore. Unfortunately,
these systems will only produce a few inches of snow for Stevens Pass. The weather topic of the weekend will be the temperatures. As these systems slide south of the region,
they will pull in cold arctic air from the interior north east. Early morning temperatures could drop into
the low teens Saturday and Sunday. Warmer
air filters in early next week with continued dry conditions for the PNW.
Long Range: The weekend will be mostly dry with increasing
sunshine and temperatures in the teens.
Forecast confidence: Good.
Values from
4am today through 4am tomorrow.
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Precipitation:
Today
24hr
water: 0 snow: 0
Tomorrow’s
24hr
water: .25
snow: 1-3
Trend and
Timing:
Dry today with light snow developing mid-day tomorrow.
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Temperature:
Low: 18 High: 26
Freezing
level: 3000’- 1500’
Trend and
Timing:
Freezing levels will peak around 3000’ this afternoon and then fall through
the night.
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Winds
Base: 0-5
west shifting E
Ridge Top:
0-`0 W shifting E
Trend and
Timing:
East flow will develop tonight and strengthen tomorrow.
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March 11, 2020
MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST
Stevens Pass Mountain Weather
Forecast
Wednesday, March 11, 2020, 1100
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Current Observations:
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24hr Precipitation: .01, swe, 1” of snow
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Temperature profile: 30 base, 25 ridge
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Pass level winds:
moderate westerly
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Barometer: holding at 1013mb’s
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Sky: overcast and
lightly snowing
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Radar: snow showers in the weakening convergence zone with little moisture
making it to Stevens Pass
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The Forecast: Diminishing snow
showers with falling temperatures can be expected today. Mostly dry tomorrow with snow arriving on
Friday.
The Science: The cold front expected to move
over the mountains last night has stalled and is currently draped over the
western portion of the state. As it
creeps its way east, temperatures will fall with light intermittent snow shower
left in its wake. Pressure gradients relax
over the next 12hrs as cool dry northerly flow streams into the region.
A tightly packed low pressure system will track
south along the PNW coast on Friday bringing snow to the mountains along with
further falling temperatures. Models have this system moving fast through
the region, which equates to short lived pulses of precipitation – not likely
to be a huge snow producer. As the system
heads south, it will draw in a cold dry air mass from north. Freezing levels will descend to sea level
with temperatures in the mountains dropping to the low teens or even single
digits early Saturday morning.
Long Range. Snow shower will likely linger into Saturday with Sunday
trending cold and clear. Warmer air begins to return next week with no significant
moisture expected.
Confidence: Good
Values from 4am today through 4am tomorrow.
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Precipitation:
Today
24hr
water:
.10 snow: trace
Tomorrow’s
24hr
water: 0 snow:
0
Trend and
Timing:
Light snow diminishing today, dry tomorrow.
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Temperature:
Low: 32 High: 26
Freezing
level: 3500’ – 2500’
Trend and
Timing:
Freezing levels will fall to +-2500’ this afternoon/ evening
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Winds
Base: 5-10
NW
Ridge
Top: 5-15 WNW
Trend and
Timing:
Winds will begin to diminish today and shift NW.
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