March 13, 2020

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST


Stevens Pass Mountain Weather Forecast
Friday, March 13, 2020, 0900

Current Observations:
24hr Precipitation:          .01 swe,  1” of snow
Temperature profile:       26 base,
Pass level winds:              light to moderate easterly
Barometer:                      1009mb’s and falling
Sky:                               obscure and snowing                                                           
Radar:  widespread moisture over western Washington tracking SSE.


The Forecast:  Snow today with falling temperatures and gusty winds, snow tapers off early tomorrow morning with clear and sunny condition expected by Sunday.   

The Science:  The anticipated low pressure system is making its move this morning spreading precipitation into the region.  This storm has a few components that may prevent Stevens Pass from getting significant snow.  First, it is tracking north to south along the coast, so the direct impact will be to the southern and eastern Cascades.  Second, it is moving fast, and thus the period of precipitation will be fairly short lived.  Third, a cold, dry air mass is driving in from the NE – this will aid in drying the upper atmosphere thus, the moisture content is fairly low.   Once the storm exits the region tomorrow, the cold dry air will settle in with clear skies and low temperatures for the remainder of the weekend.     

Long Range. Next week will mostly dry with warmer air returning.  There are no significant moisture events in the long range outlooks. 

Confidence:  Moderate to the questionable storm track.

Values from 4am today through 4am tomorrow.
Precipitation:
Today 24hr
water: .25 -.5 snow: 3-5    

Tomorrow’s 24hr
water: .10   snow: trace

Trend and Timing:
Light snow through the day with the moisture tapering off after 4am tomorrow.


Temperature:
Low: 14   High: 24
Freezing level:3000’ – 0 (sea-level)

Trend and Timing:   
Freezing levels will fall to sea- level over the next 24hrs.  Low temperatures at the Pass will be in the low teens or even briefly touch single digits.

 
Winds
Base:  5-15 E  gusty
Ridge Top:  10-25 east with gust 40+ possible 

Trend and Timing:
East winds will strengthen this afternoon with gusty ridgetop winds likely.



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