April 23, 2017

9:00 Start for Teardown, Monday April 24

Sleep in a little bit and take it easy out there. 

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day:  Sunday 0700  (Last day of this great season) 

The Snapshot:   Dan V says it is mostly cloudy and 35degrees this morning.  Rain this afternoon with mixed rain and snow on the upper ridges.   Another short dry period tomorrow morning with rain expected on Tuesday.

The Science:  Some weak upper-level ridging has provided a short period of dry but cloudy conditions over Stevens Pass.   Radar shows more precipitation to the west which should reach the mountains around noon or so.   A similar pattern emerges tomorrow with weak upper-level ridging providing a dry and partly cloudy morning with rain moving in tomorrow night and Tuesday.   

What a great winter:  Some seasonal stats to add to your memory of the great powder we all enjoyed:

443” of snow fell  
Nov        40
Dec        133
Jan         42
Feb         90
March   105
April      18 (thru 4/22)

Best storm/powder cycles: December 1-6 we got 51”, February 26-March 9 we got 88”.

Forecast accuracy for snow totals  had an error of +-2%.

Have a great summer everyone.

24hr Precipitation ending at 4am:
Today 24hr water = .5 snow = 0-2
Tomorrow’s 24hr water = .25  snow = 0

Trend and Timing:
Light rain develops this afternoon with mixed rain and snow on the upper ridges possible.


24hr temperature ending at 4 am: 
Low: 30    High: 38
Freezing level: +-4500’

Trend and Timing:   
Freezing levels will hover around 4500’ with typical daytime warming. 

 
24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4 am:
Base: 0-5 W
Ridge Top: 5-10 W

Trend and Timing:
Westerly flow will continue today as well.



jM

April 22, 2017

8:00 Sunday April 23rd no ABS

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day: 0700 Saturday

The Snapshot:  Increasing clouds today with light rain reaching Stevens Pass by mid-afternoon or so.  Cooler tonight with mixed rain and snow showers tomorrow.  

The Science:  It’s a balmy 400f  this morning with high clouds moving in.  Moisture ahead of an approaching cold front will bring light rain to Stevens Pass this afternoon with freezing levels +- 7000’.  Once the front passes east of the crest, freezing levels will drop to around 4500’ with light snow possible overnight.  A weak ridge forms behind the front which will produce some partial clearing tomorrow morning with mixed rain and snow showers re-developing through the day.  

The Long Range:   A steady stream of precipitation takes aim at the PNW next week.

24hr Precipitation ending at 4am:
Today 24hr water = lt .25  snow = trace
Tomorrow’s 24hr water = .5  snow = 1-3

Trend and Timing:
Light rain develops this afternoon with light mixed rain and snow tomorrow.  


24hr temperature ending at 4 am: 
Low: 32    High: 50
Freezing level: 7000’ – 4500’

Trend and Timing:   
Surface temperatures will climb to near 50f today.  Freezing levels begin to fall after 4 pm with early morning temperature around freezing.

 
24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4 am:
Base: 0-10 E shifting W
Ridge Top: 5-15 E shifting W

Trend and Timing:
East flow strengthening today with winds shifting westerly in the wake of the front tonight.



jM

April 21, 2017

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day: 1100 Friday

The Snapshot:  A beautiful sunny day today with high clouds developing tonight.  Dry for most of tomorrow with light rain developing late afternoon.   Sun breaks with light passing rain/snow showers can be expected for the final day of the season.

The Science:  A high pressure ridge has produced a beautiful clear day over the North Central Cascades.   The eastern basin is heating up with Wenatchee temperatures possibly reaching into the 70’s today and tomorrow.   The warm air will also make its way west with freezing levels over Steven Pass peaking +7000’ during the heat of the day tomorrow.  Good pond skimming.

A cold front will move through late tomorrow, lowering temperatures and bringing light mixed snow and rain with it.  The atmosphere will remain unstable under WSW flow through Monday with light mixed rain and snow showers persisting.

The Long Range:  The wet spring weather pattern will continue through at least the middle of next week.

24hr Precipitation ending at 4am:
Today 24hr water = 0 snow =0
Tomorrow’s 24hr water = .25  snow = trace

Trend and Timing:
Dry through 2 pm tomorrow with light precipitation developing tomorrow night.


24hr temperature ending at 4 am: 
Low: 32    High: 40
Freezing level: 4500’ -7000’

Trend and Timing:   
Freezing level will rise today and peak +- 7000k tomorrow.   Freezing levels then fall to +-4500’ late tomorrow night.

 
24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4am:
Base: 0-5 E
Ridge Top: 5-10 ESE

Trend and Timing:
East flow will strengthen tonight with gusty ridge top winds likely.



jM