Start Time Wednesday---8am

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day: 1000 Tuesday

The Snapshot:  Light snow showers tapering off today with dry and warm weather through early Thursday morning.   This fog may be persistent through tomorrow as well.

 

The Science:  This morning’s radar has a few remnant snow showers hanging around the Central Cascades.  The high pressure system centered off of the California coast will nudge north today. This will dry and stabilize the atmosphere over Washington State for the next two days.

Thursday’s Storm:  A frontal system sliding down the coastal waters of Canada is expected to arrive sometime on Thursday (the exact timing is still in doubt).  This could start out as rain but should turn to snow as the storm develops.  Storm totals by noon Friday are neighborhood of around 1” of water, and 6-12” of snow depending on the timing of the cold front.  More reliable details tomorrow.   

4-7day Long Range:  High pressure reclaims its NW territory on Friday for a dry and sunny weekend.

Precipitation: Water by 4am =.10   Snow equivalent = trace   Total inches of water by noon tomorrow = .10 Total inches of snow by noon tomorrow = 0   Trends and Timing: These light snow showers will taper off through the day with dry conditions tonight and tomorrow.

Base Temp and Freezing levels:  Low: 24    High:  34 Freezing level: 3500’      4000’   Trend and Timing: Temperatures will fall a few degrees tonight.  Freezing levels will rise to 5000’ by tomorrow afternoon.

Winds (mph) Base: 0-5 ESE Ridge Top: 0-10 W shifting S   Trend and Timing: Westerly flow aloft will shift southerly by early tomorrow morning.   ESE flow will develop tomorrow at Pass level.

Long Range Weather Forecast are Snake Oil

“Long Term Weather Forecast are snake oil”.  Something you have all heard me say about the accuracy of long range forecast. 

 Cliff Mass, the Leading Meterologist in the PNW agrees, ” such forecasting is not possible for both theoretical and practical reasons”

 

http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/

 Show on Friday.

John M

Start Time Tuesday---8am

Time and Day: 1045 Monday

The Snapshot:  Intermittent rain showers today changing to light snow tonight.  Dry tomorrow and Wednesday, with snow Thursday night. 

The Science:  This morning’s radar has the first of several weak bands of moisture moving into the mountains.  A cold front approaching from the northwest will produce cooler temperature with continued light precipitation tonight.   The precipitation will taper off in the wake of the cold front early tomorrow morning with Tuesday and Wednesday trending dry and clear.

4-7day Long Range:  A cold front on Thursday will provide a good chance of measurable snow for Friday morning.  High pressure (I am getting sick of those two words) will once again, produce dry and clear weather for the PNW over the weekend.

Precipitation: Water by 4am = .25  Snow equivalent = 0-2   Total inches of water by noon tomorrow = .25 Total inches of snow by noon tomorrow = 1-3   Trends and Timing: Light intermittent rain showers changing to light snow is expected through the next 24 hrs.  Tomorrow trends dry.

Base Temp and Freezing levels:  Low: 28    High: 40 Freezing level: 5500       4000   Trend and Timing: Temperatures will slowly fall through the night with freezing levels reaching 4000’ late tonight.  Freezing levels will be +-4000’ through Wednesday.

Winds (mph): Base: 0-5 WSW Ridge Top: 5-15 W   Trend and Timing: Blustery westerly flow will continue through tomorrow.  Flow will shift southerly on Wednesday.

 

 

 

 

 

start time 8:00am mon

start time 8:00am sun

start time sat 8:00am

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day: 0930 Friday

The Snapshot: Snow this afternoon tapering off late tonight, partly sunny and dry through the weekend.  

The Science: A weakening cold front will sweep across the region today bringing lowing temperatures and a few inches of snow.  High pressure rebuilds behind the front for a dry and sunny weekend.

4-7day Long Range:  A weak warm front will bring a chance of some light rain on Monday. High pressure returns on Tuesday for a few more days of dry and clear weather.  Models begin to differ beyond the middle of next week so I will leave that alone for a few days. What did I just say about long range models being wrong - they are already changing.  Urg.

 

Precipitation: Water by 4am = .25  Snow equivalent =2-4   Total inches of water by noon tomorrow = .25 Total inches of snow by noon tomorrow = 2-4   Trend and Timing: A short period of rain changing to snow today with a few inches of snow possible.  The precipitation will taper off tonight with just some light showers lingering into the early morning hours.  Tomorrow will be dry.

Base Temp and Freezing levels:  Low: 24    High: 34 Freezing level: 4000’           3000’   Trend and Timing: Temperatures will drop quickly with the passing of the front today.  Freezing levels will remain below 4000’ through the weekend.

Winds (mph) Base: 0-10 WNW Ridge Top: 5-15 WNW   Trend and Timing: Winds will shift from SW to NW with the passing of the front today.

A PEAK INTO THE NEW YEAR

I usually don’t put much stock in weather models further than 5 days out, due to the fact they are usually wrong.  Since the weather has been well, uneventful, I have been peeking at the longer range models searching for a little hope.   Below is a forecast model for next Thursday Jan 3^rd.   Notice the trough (150) approaching the PNW coast.   The color change from green to blue represents freezing levels at 850mb or +-4500’.  The gradient lines (black) coincide with the jet stream, which is favorable for a cooler NW storm track development.  Keep in mind this is only one model, but it is a glimmer of a pattern change to start the New Year.  In the mean time, we will have to endure some weak disturbances passing through with negligible results.   JM

Start Time Friday---8am

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day: 1030 Thursday.

The Snapshot: Dare I say spring like today.  Yikes! Warm and mild weather will continue today.  Light snow tomorrow with cooler temperatures, dry and cooler over the weekend.

 

The Science: The high pressure ridge has flattened which will allow a weak cold front to drop in tomorrow.   High pressure rebounds on Saturday morning for a dry but cooler weekend.

4-7day Long Range:  Next week will start out dry with a few weak disturbances possible on Tuesday.  The high pressure begins to weaken sometime mid week. This could open the door for a pattern change to start the New Year.  

Precipitation: Water by 4am = .10  Snow equivalent = trace   Total inches of water by noon tomorrow = < .25 Total inches of snow by noon tomorrow = 1-2   Trend and Timing: Light rain changing to light snow tomorrow. With some luck, we may squeeze an inch or two of snow before it ends tomorrow night.

Base Temp and Freezing levels:  Low: 32    High: 42 Freezing level: 6000          4500’   Trend and Timing: Freezing levels will fall below 4500’ tomorrow afternoon.  Freezing levels should remain at or slightly below 4000’ through the weekend.

Winds (mph) Base: 0-5 W Ridge Top: 0-10 W   Trend and Timing: Westerly flow aloft will continue today.  Weak east flow may develop tomorrow morning with the approach of the front.  This will be short lived with winds shifting back to westerly with passing of the front.

Start Time Thursday---8am

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day: 0900 Christmas Day

 

The Snapshot: Partly sunny and warming today.

The Science:  High pressure building off or the Oregon coast will force most of the local precipitation north of Stevens Pass.  A few weak systems will try and make their way south for a bit of light moisture tomorrow and Friday.  High pressure strengthens on Saturday for a dry and sunny weekend.

4-7day Long Range:  The PNW will be under strong high pressure through the New Year celebration.

 

Precipitation: Water by 4am = 0  Snow equivalent = 0   Total inches of water by noon tomorrow = .10 Total inches of snow by noon tomorrow = trace   Trends and Timing: Today will be dry.  There will be a chance of some light rain and or snow showers tomorrow and Friday.

Base Temp and Freezing levels:  Low: 24    High: 38 Freezing level: 4000’      6000’   Trend and Timing: Temperatures will rise today with the advance of the warm air mass.   Surface temperatures could reach well into the 40’s with the aid of the sun during the next few days.

Winds (mph) Base: 0-5 WSW   Ridge Top: 0-10 W     Trend and Timing: Light westerly flow will continue through the end of the week.

Start Time Wednesday 25th----8am

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day: 0900 Tuesday

The Snapshot: Clouds will dissipate today for the start of a dry and clear period lasting through the end of the year.

The Science:  High pressure building over the PNW today will begin a prolonged dry period for the North Central Cascade Mountains. An approaching warm air mass will cause freezing levels to rise during the next few days. A weak system will try and make it up an over the high pressure ridge on Thursday but with little effect.

4-7day Long Range:  High pressure is expected to dominate the weather pattern through the end of the year. 

Precipitation: Water by 4am = 0  Snow equivalent =  0   Total inches of water by noon tomorrow = 0 Total inches of snow by noon tomorrow = 0   Trends and Timing: These remnant light snow showers will end today with dry condition expected through the night.

Base Temp and Freezing levels:  Low: 24   High: 40 Freezing level: 3000’              5000’   Trend and Timing: Freezing levels will rise to 5000’ after 4am tomorrow morning.  Warm temperatures will continue through the week.

Winds (mph) Base:  0-5 WSW Ridge Top: 0-10 WSW   Trend and Timing: Light WSW flow expected for the next few days.  A mild east flow could develop at the surface.