EL NINO PREDICTION FOR WINTER 2018/19.
Atmospheric indicators related to last winter’s
weak La Nina conditions are fading. Neutral
conditions are now favored through the summer and early fall. The models (see below) are now swinging
toward a possible EL Nino winter.
Even though
the 50-year average snowfall stats for
Stevens Pass have no correlation for a light, medium, or heavy snow. El Nino predictions usually point to a
warmer and drier winter weather pattern for the PNW. All will be revealed in time.
As
the fall and winter approaches, many models indicate an increasing chance for
El Niño. Therefore, the forecaster
consensus hedges in the direction of El Niño as the winter approaches, but given
the considerable uncertainty in ENSO forecasts made at this time of year, the probabilities
for El Niño are below 50%. In summary, ENSO-neutral is favored through
September-November 2018, with the possibility of El Niño nearing 50% by
Northern Hemisphere winter 2018-19 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the
chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).
For full report:
JM
