February 1, 2020

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST


Stevens Pass Mountain Weather Forecast
Date: Sunday, February 1, 2020


Current Observations:
24hr Precipitation:  3.02” rain / 0” snow                   
Temperature profile: 38 degrees base / 36 degrees mid mtn
Pass level winds:  10-20 mph gusts from the west                  
Barometer:  1010 and falling                         
Sky:  Obscured                                   
Radar: Widespread heavy rain


The Forecast:  Blustery with rain changing to snow this morning, moderate snow continuing with dramatic cooling during the day, further cooling and snow ending Saturday night.

The Science: A vigorous cold front will sweep thru Washington in the next few hours, lowering freezing levels and switching upper level flow westerly. Precip type will rapidly switch to snow, with convergence showers continuing during the day. Winds have the potential to be sporty with the frontal passage, but time will tell if we get sheltered by surrounding terrain. Cold airmass advection will lower freezing levels to near sea level by Saturday night, with moist onshore flow Sunday. A lowland snow event is possible on Sunday.

Long Range: Light snow showers on Sunday at continued cool temperatures will be followed by brief ridging and a mostly dry day Monday. Active weather is in store for the middle of the week with snow likely, details to come in the next few days.

Confidence: Poor for exact snow amounts today given timing of switchover to snow and exact location of convergence zones.

Values from 4am today through 4am tomorrow.
Precipitation:
Today 24hr
water: 1"  snow: 6-10”

Tomorrow’s 24hr
water: .25  snow: 2-4”

Trend and Timing:
Precip type should shift to snow mid-morning (7-10am) with moderate to heavy snow in convergence showers midday, snow tapering off Saturday afternoon and ending overnight.

Temperature:
Low: 20   High: 38
Freezing level: 6000’ – 1000’

Trend and Timing:   
Rapid and dramatic cooling during the day and overnight Saturday.
 
Winds
Base: W 10-20
Ridge Top: WSW 30-40 with gusts

Trend and Timing:
Winds should peak mid-morning, becoming gusty for a few hours. They will ease throughout the day becoming light by Saturday night.

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0800 Thurs March 28th, No ABS