February 4, 2020

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST


Stevens Pass Mountain Weather Forecast
Tuesday, February 4, 2020, 0800

Current Observations:
24hr Precipitation:          .01 swe, 0” snow
Temperature profile:        20 base,  15 ridge
Pass level winds:              moderate to light, westerly
Barometer:                      1022mb’s and holding
Sky:                               OC with light snow falling                                               
Radar:        Light snow falling in the mountains with the next batch of moisture just reaching the coastal region.


The Forecast:   Increasing snow and wind today with warming temperatures.   Heavy wet snow continues tomorrow with freezing levels around 4500’.

The Science:  A strong warm front with a hefty batch of moisture will move into the region today.   Freezing levels will slowly rise through the next 24hrs reaching +-4500’ by mid-morning tomorrow.  Snow levels are in question for the mixed rain component.

Westerly flow will filling behind the front so expect the winds to crank up as well.  Tomorrow will be windy for most of the day.

Long Range.  Temperatures begin to fall on Friday with snow accumulation expected on Saturday.  The snow begins to taper off on Sunday with next week trending dry and clear.

Confidence:  Fair due to questionable snow levels and total precipitation amounts.

Values from 4am today through 4am tomorrow.
Precipitation:
Today 24hr
water: 1-1.25 snow:   12-15”

Tomorrow’s 24hr
water: 1-1.25   snow: 7-10 – higher amounts mid to upper mountain.

Trend and Timing:
The moisture ramps up this afternoon with heavy precipitation expected through tomorrow.  Snow above 4500’ with mixed forms possible below that.


Temperature:
Low: 20   High: 32
Freezing level: 1500’ – 4000’

Trend and Timing:   
Freezing levels will on the rise reaching 4000’ sometime early tomorrow then 4500’ by mid-day or so.

 
Winds
Base: 5-10 W
Ridge Top:  5-15 WSW

Trend and Timing:
Winds will strengthen with the passing of the front tonight.   A high wind advisory will go into effect after midnight and continue through tomorrow.


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