THE WEATHER

SORRY FOR THE FORMAT SOME HOW THE BLOG CHANGES IT. 2/21/2008 Weather Discussion: Another dry day for the mountains. A small low pressure system is developing off the coast – this should bring some light snow to the Pass tomorrow and Saturday. Long-term models show drying for Saturday afternoon and Sunday. A large low pressure driving into California will bring something our way for next week. Not sure what that will be at this point, but it is worth keeping an eye on. La Nina? What happened to our friend La Nina? Below is part of a report from the Climate Prediction Center. Don’t count winter out just yet. Forecast from Thursday 4pm to Friday 4am Precipitation Lt .10 in. Water trace in. Snow Temperatures Low 30 High 36 Winds 5-10 E Forecast for Friday 4am to 4pm Precipitation .10 in. Water 1-2 in. Snow Temperatures Low 28 High 32 Winds 5-10 E TRENDS AND TIMING Precipitation: Off shore flow will keep any moisture from getting to the mountains until after 4am tomorrow. Light mountain snow showers expected tomorrow – Atmosphere should stabilize by 4pm Saturday to start the dry period. Freezing levels: Freezing levels should slowly fall tonight and then hover between 3000’ and 4000’ until Saturday. Winds: East/off shore flow will continue through Saturday as well. Some gusty east winds will show up from time-to-time as these weak systems pass through. La Niña is expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2008. Current atmospheric and oceanic conditions indicate that La Niña has continued to strengthen in the tropical Pacific… Consistent with these oceanic conditions, stronger-than-average low-level easterly and upper-level westerly winds persisted across the central equatorial Pacific, convection remained suppressed throughout the central equatorial Pacific, and enhanced convection covered the far western Pacific. Collectively, these oceanic and atmospheric conditions are similar to those accompanying the last strong La Niña episode in 1998-2000. The recent dynamical and statistical SST forecasts for the Niño 3.4 region indicate a moderate-to-strong La Niña through the rest of the Northern Hemisphere winter, with the likely continuation of a weaker La Niña through April-May-June (Fig. 5). Thereafter, there is considerable spread in the models, with approximately one-half indicating La Niña could continue well into the Northern Hemisphere summer. Current atmospheric and oceanic conditions and recent trends are consistent with the likely continuation of La Niña through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2008. Expected La Niña impacts during February-April include a continuation of above-average precipitation over Indonesia and below-average precipitation over the central equatorial Pacific. For the contiguous United States, potential impacts include above-average precipitation in the Northern Rockies, the Pacific Northwest, and the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Below-average precipitation is expected across the South, particularly in the southeastern states.