December 7, 2009

EL NINO forecast

Below is some of the synopsis from NOAA's Climate predicion center on El NINO. It is paraphrased a bit. If you want the whole thing go to: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ JDM El Niño is expected to continue strengthening and last through at least the Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-2010. ...During October 2009, sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies increased across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean ...Consistent with the historical evolution of El Niño, a peak in SST anomalies is expected sometime during November-January...the most likely outcome is that El Niño will peak at least at moderate strength (3-month Niño-3.4 SST index of +1.0°C or greater) and last through at least the Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10... Expected El Niño impacts during November 2009-January 2010 include enhanced precipitation over the central tropical Pacific Ocean and a continuation of drier-than-average conditions over Indonesia. For the contiguous United States, potential impacts include above-average precipitation for Florida, central and eastern Texas, and California, with below-average precipitation for parts of the Pacific Northwest. Above-average temperatures and below-average snowfall is most likely for the Northern Rockies, Northern Plains, and Upper Midwest, while below-average temperatures are expected for the southeastern states.

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