November 30, 2010
The cold front now making land fall.
The Sat. shows the cold front just now hitting the PNW. Big snow still expected today.
STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER
24HR SNAP SHOT starting at NOON today
Water - .5 Snow - 4-6
Freezing levels - 2000' rising 3500' falling to 2500'
Winds 0 5-10 W
General Discussion: Heavy snow powered by two fronts will move through the Cascades today. The fronts slowed their approach last, so the timing has been pushed off a bit. Still expecting the moisture forecasted yesterday.
Long-term: The rest of the week will be mostly dry with a few light showers possible. There is another system developing in the Gulf of Alaska that may begin to affect us Sunday or early next week.
TRENDS AND TIMING
Precipitation: The snow intensity will increase this morning as the fronts make their way east. Our friend the PS Convergence Zone is expected to develop this afternoon. This will push orographics and intensify the precipitation. Snow will begin to taper off after midnight tonight. Light snow showers will persist through the early morning hours with tomorrow being mainly dry.
Freezing levels: Freezing levels will rise today to 3500’ and then fall back down to 2500’ overnight.
Winds: Westerly flow will follow the first front sometime after noon today. It will be possible to get some gusty periods as the fronts moves through, but no significant wind events are expected. jdm
November 29, 2010
STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER
11/29/2010 Weather
24HR SNAP SHOT Starting at noon today
Water - 1-1.25 Snow - 12-16
Freezing Levels 2000' risng to 4000.
Winds 0-10 E shifting SW W
General Discussion: The next juicy system is due to arrive in the mountains tonight.
Long-term: Dry and cool conditions will set up on Wednesday with no organized systems developing until possibly the weekend.
TRENDS AND TIMING
Precipitation: Moderate to heavy snow will begin after 4pm today. Snow will continue tomorrow and then begin to taper off tomorrow evening. Storm totals by Wednesday morning could exceed 1.5” of water. (20” of snow)
Freezing levels: Freezing levels will spike up to +4000’ around 4am tomorrow morning and then slowly fall back down in the wake of the cold front tomorrow evening.
Winds: Light east flow will hang in there through the night. SW flow will override the east flow mid day tomorrow and then shift to westerly. With the exception of some gusty frontal winds, models are not showing much in the way of significant winds at the Pass. jdm
24HR SNAP SHOT Starting at noon today
Water - 1-1.25 Snow - 12-16
Freezing Levels 2000' risng to 4000.
Winds 0-10 E shifting SW W
General Discussion: The next juicy system is due to arrive in the mountains tonight.
Long-term: Dry and cool conditions will set up on Wednesday with no organized systems developing until possibly the weekend.
TRENDS AND TIMING
Precipitation: Moderate to heavy snow will begin after 4pm today. Snow will continue tomorrow and then begin to taper off tomorrow evening. Storm totals by Wednesday morning could exceed 1.5” of water. (20” of snow)
Freezing levels: Freezing levels will spike up to +4000’ around 4am tomorrow morning and then slowly fall back down in the wake of the cold front tomorrow evening.
Winds: Light east flow will hang in there through the night. SW flow will override the east flow mid day tomorrow and then shift to westerly. With the exception of some gusty frontal winds, models are not showing much in the way of significant winds at the Pass. jdm
November 27, 2010
STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER
11/27/2010 Weather
24hr SNAP SHOT starting at NOON today.
Water - Lt. .10 Snow - 0-2
Freezing levels 2000' dropping to 1000'
Winds - 0-10 W
General Discussion: A weak high pressure ridge will build today to allow mostly dry conditions and some sun breaks to occur for the remainder of the weekend.
Long-term: The next system will arrive in the mountain late Monday afternoon. This should be another good snow producer. Let the fun begin.
TRENDS AND TIMING
Precipitation: A few light snow showers will linger over the crest today and tomorrow.
Freezing levels: Freezing levels will fall to 1000’ or lower tonight. Temps will stay low until Monday’s warm front arrives.
Winds: With the exception of some light east flow at the surface, westerly flow aloft will continue through the weekend. jdm
24hr SNAP SHOT starting at NOON today.
Water - Lt. .10 Snow - 0-2
Freezing levels 2000' dropping to 1000'
Winds - 0-10 W
General Discussion: A weak high pressure ridge will build today to allow mostly dry conditions and some sun breaks to occur for the remainder of the weekend.
Long-term: The next system will arrive in the mountain late Monday afternoon. This should be another good snow producer. Let the fun begin.
TRENDS AND TIMING
Precipitation: A few light snow showers will linger over the crest today and tomorrow.
Freezing levels: Freezing levels will fall to 1000’ or lower tonight. Temps will stay low until Monday’s warm front arrives.
Winds: With the exception of some light east flow at the surface, westerly flow aloft will continue through the weekend. jdm
November 26, 2010
STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER
11/26/2010 Weather
24HR SNAP SHOT starting at NOON today
Water - .25 snow 2-4
Freezing Levels - 3000 falling to 2000'
Winds 0-10 SW shifting W
General Discussion: A cold front will push more snow into the mountains today. Once the front passes, snow will taper to light showers for the remainder of the weekend.
Long-term: A ridge of high pressure will move over the PNW on Sunday and Monday bringing cool and dry weather. Another system is tracking toward the PNW on Tuesday.
TRENDS AND TIMING
Precipitation: The cold front is expected to pass over the Cascade Crest later this afternoon, once this happens, the snow will begin to taper to showers. Light snow showers will continue through the weekend.
Freezing levels: Freezing levels will hold around the 3000’ level for the next 24 hrs. Cooler air will move in from the north and drop freezing levels below 2000’ by Sunday.
Winds: SW flow will shift W in the wake of the cold front tonight.
24HR SNAP SHOT starting at NOON today
Water - .25 snow 2-4
Freezing Levels - 3000 falling to 2000'
Winds 0-10 SW shifting W
General Discussion: A cold front will push more snow into the mountains today. Once the front passes, snow will taper to light showers for the remainder of the weekend.
Long-term: A ridge of high pressure will move over the PNW on Sunday and Monday bringing cool and dry weather. Another system is tracking toward the PNW on Tuesday.
TRENDS AND TIMING
Precipitation: The cold front is expected to pass over the Cascade Crest later this afternoon, once this happens, the snow will begin to taper to showers. Light snow showers will continue through the weekend.
Freezing levels: Freezing levels will hold around the 3000’ level for the next 24 hrs. Cooler air will move in from the north and drop freezing levels below 2000’ by Sunday.
Winds: SW flow will shift W in the wake of the cold front tonight.
November 25, 2010
STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER
11/25/2010 Weather
24HR SNAP SHOT starting at NOON today.
Water - .5-.75 Snow - 6-10
Freezing levels - 1500' rising to 3500' falling to 2000'
Winds 0-10 SW
General Discussion: Radar shows the first of two fronts entering the mountains this morning. Snow with warmer temperatures will continue through Saturday.
Long-term: Sunday and Monday will be relatively dry with another front entering the scene on Tuesday.
TRENDS AND TIMING
Precipitation: Light to moderate snow will continue tomorrow as the cold front moves in.
Freezing levels: Freezing levels will spike up to 3500’ tonight and then drop back down around 2000’ in the wake of the cold front.
Winds: SW flow will override today and continue through the night. Other than a few breezy periods, models are not showing any significant winds with these fronts. jdm
24HR SNAP SHOT starting at NOON today.
Water - .5-.75 Snow - 6-10
Freezing levels - 1500' rising to 3500' falling to 2000'
Winds 0-10 SW
General Discussion: Radar shows the first of two fronts entering the mountains this morning. Snow with warmer temperatures will continue through Saturday.
Long-term: Sunday and Monday will be relatively dry with another front entering the scene on Tuesday.
TRENDS AND TIMING
Precipitation: Light to moderate snow will continue tomorrow as the cold front moves in.
Freezing levels: Freezing levels will spike up to 3500’ tonight and then drop back down around 2000’ in the wake of the cold front.
Winds: SW flow will override today and continue through the night. Other than a few breezy periods, models are not showing any significant winds with these fronts. jdm
November 24, 2010
STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER
11/24/2010 Weather
24hr SNAP SHOT starting at NOON today
Water - lt.25 snow 1-3
Freezing levels - 0 - 3500'
Winds NNW 0-10 gusty
General Discussion: Clouds will thicken this afternoon as the next system, with snow, approaches the coast. Warm air will accompany tomorrow’s front and quickly bring temperatures back to normal.
Long-term: Snow will begin tomorrow and continue through the weekend. Sunday & Monday will be interim days with another good looking storm tracking in for Tuesday/Wednesday.
TRENDS AND TIMING
Precipitation: Today will remain dry. A warm front will arrive tomorrow with a cold front hot on its heels. Light snow should begin to fall after 4am tomorrow morning. Storm totals, ending early Sunday morning, are currently around .75-1” of water or 8-12” of snow.
Freezing levels: Temperatures will slowly rise through the day today. Freezing levels will then quickly ascend to 4000’ after the warm front passes tomorrow morning.
Winds: NW winds will shift westerly in the wake of the front. Look for gusty conditions to develop with such a big temperature change. General westerly flow will continue through the weekend. jdm
24hr SNAP SHOT starting at NOON today
Water - lt.25 snow 1-3
Freezing levels - 0 - 3500'
Winds NNW 0-10 gusty
General Discussion: Clouds will thicken this afternoon as the next system, with snow, approaches the coast. Warm air will accompany tomorrow’s front and quickly bring temperatures back to normal.
Long-term: Snow will begin tomorrow and continue through the weekend. Sunday & Monday will be interim days with another good looking storm tracking in for Tuesday/Wednesday.
TRENDS AND TIMING
Precipitation: Today will remain dry. A warm front will arrive tomorrow with a cold front hot on its heels. Light snow should begin to fall after 4am tomorrow morning. Storm totals, ending early Sunday morning, are currently around .75-1” of water or 8-12” of snow.
Freezing levels: Temperatures will slowly rise through the day today. Freezing levels will then quickly ascend to 4000’ after the warm front passes tomorrow morning.
Winds: NW winds will shift westerly in the wake of the front. Look for gusty conditions to develop with such a big temperature change. General westerly flow will continue through the weekend. jdm
November 23, 2010
STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER
11/23/2010 Weather
24HR SNAP SHOT: starting at NOON today
Water - 0 Snow - 0
Freezing levels - Sea level rising to 1000'
Winds. 0-10 NNW
General Discussion: Pressure gradients have slackened toady which will bring an interlude to the precipitation for a few days. We will start to feel relief from this deep freeze tomorrow as warmer air fills in from the west.
Long-term: The next system tracking toward the PNW is due to arrive in the mountains early Thursday morning with the main event now timing out to be on Friday. Details on the next system are sketchy at this point, but it should be a nice snow producer with warmer temperatures.
TRENDS AND TIMING
Precipitation: A few flurries will linger this morning. The next 24-36hrs will be mostly dry.
Freezing levels: We should reach the lowest temperatures today. Freezing level will slowly begin to rise early tomorrow morning. Look for freezing levels to reach 4000’ by Thursday. Hopefully they won’t go much higher than that.
Winds: NE flow will shift N then NW during the next 24 hrs. Westerly winds will strengthen with Thursday’s front. jdm
24HR SNAP SHOT: starting at NOON today
Water - 0 Snow - 0
Freezing levels - Sea level rising to 1000'
Winds. 0-10 NNW
General Discussion: Pressure gradients have slackened toady which will bring an interlude to the precipitation for a few days. We will start to feel relief from this deep freeze tomorrow as warmer air fills in from the west.
Long-term: The next system tracking toward the PNW is due to arrive in the mountains early Thursday morning with the main event now timing out to be on Friday. Details on the next system are sketchy at this point, but it should be a nice snow producer with warmer temperatures.
TRENDS AND TIMING
Precipitation: A few flurries will linger this morning. The next 24-36hrs will be mostly dry.
Freezing levels: We should reach the lowest temperatures today. Freezing level will slowly begin to rise early tomorrow morning. Look for freezing levels to reach 4000’ by Thursday. Hopefully they won’t go much higher than that.
Winds: NE flow will shift N then NW during the next 24 hrs. Westerly winds will strengthen with Thursday’s front. jdm
Yesterday weather models bamboozled
Yesterday was facinating. The models didn't seem to capture the details very well. The 500mb vorticity (energy), the 700mb VV (Vertical Velocity) and thicknesses didn't jive with the precipitation predictions. It always nice to know that the actual weather has a few tricks left.
November 22, 2010
Signs of NW flow by the weekend
850mb model shows signs of NW flow developing on Thursday and lasting through the weekend. Notice several lows stacked up in a NW pattern. That pesky High pressure cell out in the Pacific is being squashed and driven south. No huge dump potential but the pattern looks promising.
STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER
11/22/2010 Weather
24HR SNAP SHOT - starting the NOON today
water - .25 snow 2-4
Freezing levels - Sea level or lower
Wind - 5-10 NNE
General Discussion: A weak low pressure system will slide down from the northern interior today bringing more snow showers and cold temperatures. Tomorrow and Wednesday will be mostly dry and very cold.
Long-term: The next chance of snow will be late Wednesday/Thursday as a NW flow pattern takes shape. Long range models differ in the details so confidence is low, but snow looks promising starting on turkey day.
TRENDS AND TIMING
Precipitation: Light snow showers will continue today. Snow will taper off tonight.
Freezing levels: Freezing levels will drop to or below sea level today and stay low through Wednesday. Single digits or lower will be possible in most areas. A warming trend will start later in the week.
Winds: Light northeasterly flow tonight will shift NNW tomorrow afternoon. jdm
24HR SNAP SHOT - starting the NOON today
water - .25 snow 2-4
Freezing levels - Sea level or lower
Wind - 5-10 NNE
General Discussion: A weak low pressure system will slide down from the northern interior today bringing more snow showers and cold temperatures. Tomorrow and Wednesday will be mostly dry and very cold.
Long-term: The next chance of snow will be late Wednesday/Thursday as a NW flow pattern takes shape. Long range models differ in the details so confidence is low, but snow looks promising starting on turkey day.
TRENDS AND TIMING
Precipitation: Light snow showers will continue today. Snow will taper off tonight.
Freezing levels: Freezing levels will drop to or below sea level today and stay low through Wednesday. Single digits or lower will be possible in most areas. A warming trend will start later in the week.
Winds: Light northeasterly flow tonight will shift NNW tomorrow afternoon. jdm
November 19, 2010
STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER
11/19/2010 Weather
24HR SNAP SHOT- Starting at NOON today.
Water -.25 snow - 1.3
Freezing levels - 2000 dropping 1000'
Wind - 5-15 E
General Discussion: The low pressure cell spinning off the Washington coast, will drifts south and break apart today. Cool temperatures and light snow shower will continue through the weekend.
Long-term: High-pressure out in the Pacific, coupled with northerly flow aloft will bring cool dry conditions to the PNW for the start of next week.
TRENDS AND TIMING
Precipitation: Snow showers will continue today but become less frequent. Hopefully, we will squeeze a few more inches out of these showers before they dry up. Significant snow accumulation is not likely until maybe late next week.
Freezing levels: Freezing temperatures will continue to fall under northeast flow. Surface temps will dip into the teens on Saturday and Sunday.
Winds: East flow will strengthen today and continue through the weekend. jdm
24HR SNAP SHOT- Starting at NOON today.
Water -.25 snow - 1.3
Freezing levels - 2000 dropping 1000'
Wind - 5-15 E
General Discussion: The low pressure cell spinning off the Washington coast, will drifts south and break apart today. Cool temperatures and light snow shower will continue through the weekend.
Long-term: High-pressure out in the Pacific, coupled with northerly flow aloft will bring cool dry conditions to the PNW for the start of next week.
TRENDS AND TIMING
Precipitation: Snow showers will continue today but become less frequent. Hopefully, we will squeeze a few more inches out of these showers before they dry up. Significant snow accumulation is not likely until maybe late next week.
Freezing levels: Freezing temperatures will continue to fall under northeast flow. Surface temps will dip into the teens on Saturday and Sunday.
Winds: East flow will strengthen today and continue through the weekend. jdm
November 18, 2010
Looking out beyond the weekend.
Not much happening northwest of us. Not until this persistent High pressure cell in the North Central Pacific breaks down will we see a NW storm track develop - Early signs of that possibility are creeping into the picture for late next week. Fingers crossed everyone. 
STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER
11/18/2010 Weather
24hr SNAP SHOT starting at NOON today
Water - .25, Snow 2-4
Freezing levels - 2000' steady
Wind - 0-10 W
General Discussion: My unofficial base area new snow measurement came up with 12”. We should have a 13-16” base out there - a good start. A complex stacked low pressure system will continue to spin bands of moisture through the PNW today.
Long-term: Bands of snow showers will slowly taper off during the next few days. The start of next week looks dry with no significant systems in the picture. Cold air streaming in from the interior north with keep surface temps well below seasonal norms this weekend. Keep an eye on those pipes this weekend.
TRENDS AND TIMING
Precipitation: Moderate snow showers will continue today and then slowly taper off through the weekend. It will be possible to pick up another 4-8” inches by Saturday morning.
Freezing levels: Freezing levels will remain low, around 2000’ for the next 24-36 hours. Cold air from the northern interior will push temps low this weekend.
Winds: Westerly flow will weaken today and then swing south then East during the next 24 hours. Off shore/East flow will be well established by Saturday. jdm
24hr SNAP SHOT starting at NOON today
Water - .25, Snow 2-4
Freezing levels - 2000' steady
Wind - 0-10 W
General Discussion: My unofficial base area new snow measurement came up with 12”. We should have a 13-16” base out there - a good start. A complex stacked low pressure system will continue to spin bands of moisture through the PNW today.
Long-term: Bands of snow showers will slowly taper off during the next few days. The start of next week looks dry with no significant systems in the picture. Cold air streaming in from the interior north with keep surface temps well below seasonal norms this weekend. Keep an eye on those pipes this weekend.
TRENDS AND TIMING
Precipitation: Moderate snow showers will continue today and then slowly taper off through the weekend. It will be possible to pick up another 4-8” inches by Saturday morning.
Freezing levels: Freezing levels will remain low, around 2000’ for the next 24-36 hours. Cold air from the northern interior will push temps low this weekend.
Winds: Westerly flow will weaken today and then swing south then East during the next 24 hours. Off shore/East flow will be well established by Saturday. jdm
November 17, 2010
STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER
11/17/2010 Weather
24hr SNAP SHOT - Starting at NOON today:
Water - .5-.75 Snow 6-10"
Freezing levels - 4000' dropping to 2000'
Winds - WSW 5-10 gusty.
General Discussion: A cold front will swing in from the NW today bringing snow to the mountains.
Long-term: The low pressure cell will continue to spin snow showers into the mountains through the weekend as it drifts SE of the State. A cold air mass dropping in from Canada will keep surface temperature unseasonable low through the beginning of next week.
TRENDS AND TIMING
Precipitation: Moderate snow will fall for a few hours today and then begin to taper to showers after the front passes. Snow showers, some heavy at times, will continue through the rest of the week.
Snow Totals: If the low pressure system stalls off the southern Washington coast, like models are indicating, snow totals could exceed 20” by the end of the weekend. I am a bit skeptical of this, but possible.
Freezing levels: Freezing levels will hover near 4000’ today and then begin to fall tonight. Freezing levels will lurk around the 2000’/2500’ level through Friday.
Winds: Some gusty winds will be possible with the passing of the front, but nothing significant. WSW flow will through Friday as well. jdm
24hr SNAP SHOT - Starting at NOON today:
Water - .5-.75 Snow 6-10"
Freezing levels - 4000' dropping to 2000'
Winds - WSW 5-10 gusty.
General Discussion: A cold front will swing in from the NW today bringing snow to the mountains.
Long-term: The low pressure cell will continue to spin snow showers into the mountains through the weekend as it drifts SE of the State. A cold air mass dropping in from Canada will keep surface temperature unseasonable low through the beginning of next week.
TRENDS AND TIMING
Precipitation: Moderate snow will fall for a few hours today and then begin to taper to showers after the front passes. Snow showers, some heavy at times, will continue through the rest of the week.
Snow Totals: If the low pressure system stalls off the southern Washington coast, like models are indicating, snow totals could exceed 20” by the end of the weekend. I am a bit skeptical of this, but possible.
Freezing levels: Freezing levels will hover near 4000’ today and then begin to fall tonight. Freezing levels will lurk around the 2000’/2500’ level through Friday.
Winds: Some gusty winds will be possible with the passing of the front, but nothing significant. WSW flow will through Friday as well. jdm
November 16, 2010
STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER
11/16/2010 Weather
24 HOUR SNAP SHOT: Starting at NOON today.
lt .25 - 1-3" of snow
Freezing Levels - 3500-4500' steady
Winds - 0-10 WSW
General Discussion: Whew, what a storm. 117mph wind gust were recorded at the top of Tye Mill last night. The lift maintenance crew and saw crew are hard at work cleaning up all the trees that fell.
There will be a lull in the action this evening before the next system slides in place tomorrow. More snow on the way.
Long-term: Things will begin to quiet down on Friday as the low pressure cell drifts south. There is nothing of note behind this next system so the weekend looks dry and cool. There are signs of some NW flow developing during the first part of next week - something to keep and eye on.
TRENDS AND TIMING
Precipitation: Snow will taper to showers this afternoon. Tonight will be relatively quiet. The next push of moisture will arrive mid morning tomorrow. Water/snow totals for tomorrow’s system are currently calculating out to be .75-1 or 6-12” of snow - that might be a bit high; I will have a better fix on those details with tonight’s model runs.
Freezing levels: Freezing levels will fluctuate between 3500' and 4500’ through most of tomorrow. An overall cooling trend will occur as the week progresses.
Winds: The winds will taper this afternoon as they shift WSW overnight. jdm
24 HOUR SNAP SHOT: Starting at NOON today.
lt .25 - 1-3" of snow
Freezing Levels - 3500-4500' steady
Winds - 0-10 WSW
General Discussion: Whew, what a storm. 117mph wind gust were recorded at the top of Tye Mill last night. The lift maintenance crew and saw crew are hard at work cleaning up all the trees that fell.
There will be a lull in the action this evening before the next system slides in place tomorrow. More snow on the way.
Long-term: Things will begin to quiet down on Friday as the low pressure cell drifts south. There is nothing of note behind this next system so the weekend looks dry and cool. There are signs of some NW flow developing during the first part of next week - something to keep and eye on.
TRENDS AND TIMING
Precipitation: Snow will taper to showers this afternoon. Tonight will be relatively quiet. The next push of moisture will arrive mid morning tomorrow. Water/snow totals for tomorrow’s system are currently calculating out to be .75-1 or 6-12” of snow - that might be a bit high; I will have a better fix on those details with tonight’s model runs.
Freezing levels: Freezing levels will fluctuate between 3500' and 4500’ through most of tomorrow. An overall cooling trend will occur as the week progresses.
Winds: The winds will taper this afternoon as they shift WSW overnight. jdm
November 15, 2010
STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER
11/15/2010 Weather
24 HOUR SNAP SHOT - Starting at NOON today.
WATER: .75 - 6-10" of Snow above 4500'
FL'S: 6000' falling to 4000'
WIND: W 10-20 gust to 50
General Discussion: Active weather will start the week with rain, wind and snow. This is all driven by a low pressure system developing in the Gulf of Alaska.
Long-term: Another cool wet system is expected to arrive in the mountains on Wednesday/Thursday. Cool and dry conditions are shaping up as the week comes to a close. However, things are quickly changing in the long range models, so stay tuned.
TRENDS AND TIMING
Precipitation: The rain today will slowly turn to mixed rain and snow during the early morning hours. Things will briefly dry out tomorrow afternoon in preparation for the next system on Wednesday. The ground is still pretty warm and saturated so snow will have a hard time accumulating below 4500’. Snow totals for the week could exceed 15”.
Freezing levels: Freezing levels will remain high today. Freezing levels will drop to 4000’ early tomorrow morning. Cool air will continue to filter in from the north, possible dropping the FL’s below 2000’ by Thursday.
Winds: High wind advisories are in place throughout the state starting this afternoon. High pressure gradients could push 50+mph winds gust through the Pass tonight. Winds will quickly diminish tomorrow and shift SW. jdm
24 HOUR SNAP SHOT - Starting at NOON today.
WATER: .75 - 6-10" of Snow above 4500'
FL'S: 6000' falling to 4000'
WIND: W 10-20 gust to 50
General Discussion: Active weather will start the week with rain, wind and snow. This is all driven by a low pressure system developing in the Gulf of Alaska.
Long-term: Another cool wet system is expected to arrive in the mountains on Wednesday/Thursday. Cool and dry conditions are shaping up as the week comes to a close. However, things are quickly changing in the long range models, so stay tuned.
TRENDS AND TIMING
Precipitation: The rain today will slowly turn to mixed rain and snow during the early morning hours. Things will briefly dry out tomorrow afternoon in preparation for the next system on Wednesday. The ground is still pretty warm and saturated so snow will have a hard time accumulating below 4500’. Snow totals for the week could exceed 15”.
Freezing levels: Freezing levels will remain high today. Freezing levels will drop to 4000’ early tomorrow morning. Cool air will continue to filter in from the north, possible dropping the FL’s below 2000’ by Thursday.
Winds: High wind advisories are in place throughout the state starting this afternoon. High pressure gradients could push 50+mph winds gust through the Pass tonight. Winds will quickly diminish tomorrow and shift SW. jdm
November 13, 2010
Maybe some skinning by the end of the week
Could get enough snow on the ground by the end of the week to get some skinning in. Low confidence in a favorable long-term forecast. But this system sliding down the BC coast will bring some snow starting Tuesday.
November 12, 2010
STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER
11/12/2010 Weather
24HR SNAP SHOT starting at NOON today.
Water - .15 Snow - trace
Freezing Levels - 3500- rising to 6000'
Winds - 0-10 westerly
General Discussion:
Once this surface fog burns off, it will be a fairly nice day. Enjoy the sun reflecting off of the fresh snow crystals. A large high pressure cell off the coast of California continues to bring fickle weather to the PNW. Weak systems will brush the Central Cascades through the weekend.
Long-term: Long term models are changing daily, a sign of the changing season. This unorganized somewhat chaotic pattern will continue until that high pressure system begins to weaken sometime next week. Look for change starting on Tuesday.
TRENDS AND TIMING
Precipitation: There will be a chance of some Light snow early tomorrow morning. This will change to rain with sun breaks during the day.
Freezing levels: Below freezing temperature will continue through the early morning hours. Freezing levels are expected to rise above pass level tomorrow. It will be possible to get FL’s 7500’ or high over the weekend.
Winds: Light westerly flow today will increase and become gusty with an approaching warm front tomorrow. jdm
24HR SNAP SHOT starting at NOON today.
Water - .15 Snow - trace
Freezing Levels - 3500- rising to 6000'
Winds - 0-10 westerly
General Discussion:
Once this surface fog burns off, it will be a fairly nice day. Enjoy the sun reflecting off of the fresh snow crystals. A large high pressure cell off the coast of California continues to bring fickle weather to the PNW. Weak systems will brush the Central Cascades through the weekend.
Long-term: Long term models are changing daily, a sign of the changing season. This unorganized somewhat chaotic pattern will continue until that high pressure system begins to weaken sometime next week. Look for change starting on Tuesday.
TRENDS AND TIMING
Precipitation: There will be a chance of some Light snow early tomorrow morning. This will change to rain with sun breaks during the day.
Freezing levels: Below freezing temperature will continue through the early morning hours. Freezing levels are expected to rise above pass level tomorrow. It will be possible to get FL’s 7500’ or high over the weekend.
Winds: Light westerly flow today will increase and become gusty with an approaching warm front tomorrow. jdm
November 11, 2010
High pressure off the Western Coast
This large High pressure cell will have to go away before we are able to get a nice NW flow pattern to bring in some significant snow. It sshould begin to break down some time next week.
November 10, 2010
STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER
11/10/2010 Weather
24 HOUR SNAP SHOT - Starting at NOON today.
Water - 0
Snow -0
Freezing levels - 4000' steady
Wind - 0-5 E
General Discussion: A week high-pressure ridge will pass through the PNW today. This will produce dry and partly sunny weather for the next few days. Another similar snow event, like the one we just had, will move through the mountains tomorrow afternoon. This is likely to give us a few more inches of snow.
Long-term: A large high pressure cell circulating out in the Pacific will allow cool air from the north and a few weak systems to pass through the PNW through most of next week. No significant storms of interest on the horizon.
TRENDS AND TIMING
Precipitation: Light snow will show up after noon tomorrow, until then we will remain dry.
Freezing levels: Freezing levels will hover near 4000’ today. A cold front entering tomorrow afternoon will lower freezing levels to 3000’. Surface temperature could hit 40 today with the aid of the sun.
Winds: East flow will continue to weaken today and then swing to Westerly in the wake of tomorrow’s front.
24 HOUR SNAP SHOT - Starting at NOON today.
Water - 0
Snow -0
Freezing levels - 4000' steady
Wind - 0-5 E
General Discussion: A week high-pressure ridge will pass through the PNW today. This will produce dry and partly sunny weather for the next few days. Another similar snow event, like the one we just had, will move through the mountains tomorrow afternoon. This is likely to give us a few more inches of snow.
Long-term: A large high pressure cell circulating out in the Pacific will allow cool air from the north and a few weak systems to pass through the PNW through most of next week. No significant storms of interest on the horizon.
TRENDS AND TIMING
Precipitation: Light snow will show up after noon tomorrow, until then we will remain dry.
Freezing levels: Freezing levels will hover near 4000’ today. A cold front entering tomorrow afternoon will lower freezing levels to 3000’. Surface temperature could hit 40 today with the aid of the sun.
Winds: East flow will continue to weaken today and then swing to Westerly in the wake of tomorrow’s front.
November 9, 2010
STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER
11/9/2010 Weather
24hr SNAP SHOT
STARTING AT NOON TODAY
WATER - .25, 1-3" OF SNOW
FREEZING LEVELS 2500' RISING to 4000'
WINDS - 0-10 E decreasing.
General Discussion: Radar shows a band of moisture just approaching the western flank of the Cascades. This will drop a few inches of snow on us before it moves east of the crest later today. Dry weather will follow tonight - Thursday.
Long-term: Another weak system will brush the state late Thursdays/Friday. Long-range models are having some disagreement on what the building high pressure off the northern California coast will provide for the PNW- something to keep an eye on.
TRENDS AND TIMING
Precipitation: Snow will arrive at the Pass by noon or so today, could squeeze a few inches out before it moves east. Wednesday/Thursday will be dry.
Freezing levels: Freezing levels will slowly rise to pass level by tomorrow afternoon. Freezing levels will remain near or above pass level for the next few days.
Winds: East flow will continue but weaken through the next 24 hours. SW flow will accompany the front on Thursday. jdm
24hr SNAP SHOT
STARTING AT NOON TODAY
WATER - .25, 1-3" OF SNOW
FREEZING LEVELS 2500' RISING to 4000'
WINDS - 0-10 E decreasing.
General Discussion: Radar shows a band of moisture just approaching the western flank of the Cascades. This will drop a few inches of snow on us before it moves east of the crest later today. Dry weather will follow tonight - Thursday.
Long-term: Another weak system will brush the state late Thursdays/Friday. Long-range models are having some disagreement on what the building high pressure off the northern California coast will provide for the PNW- something to keep an eye on.
TRENDS AND TIMING
Precipitation: Snow will arrive at the Pass by noon or so today, could squeeze a few inches out before it moves east. Wednesday/Thursday will be dry.
Freezing levels: Freezing levels will slowly rise to pass level by tomorrow afternoon. Freezing levels will remain near or above pass level for the next few days.
Winds: East flow will continue but weaken through the next 24 hours. SW flow will accompany the front on Thursday. jdm
November 8, 2010
STEVENS PASS MOUNTIAN WEATHER
11/8/2010 Weather
24 HOURS AT A GLANCE
Starting at NOON Today
Precipitation
“ Water: Lt. .25
“ of Snow: 1-3
Temperatures (F):
Pass level Low: 26 High: 32
Ridge top Low: 24 High: 30
Winds Speed/Direction
Pass level: 0-10 SW
Ridge top: 0-5 SW - E
Long-term: A large high pressure ridge is expected to develop off the western coast toward the weekend. This will most likely keep any significant weather system at bay through early next week. In other words, no significant snow fall on the 6-10 day horizon.
TRENDS AND TIMING
Precipitation: Light snow showers will fall through the night. A larger push of moisture will move through tomorrow morning and quickly move east during the afternoon. Dry condition will develop for Wednesday and Thursday.
Freezing levels: Freezing level will lower to the 2500’-3500’ range tonight. Freezing levels are expected to rise back up to 4000’ by Wednesday and then continue to rise through the end of the week.
Winds: Winds will swing SW, S, and then East through the next 24 hours. jdm
24 HOURS AT A GLANCE
Starting at NOON Today
Precipitation
“ Water: Lt. .25
“ of Snow: 1-3
Temperatures (F):
Pass level Low: 26 High: 32
Ridge top Low: 24 High: 30
Winds Speed/Direction
Pass level: 0-10 SW
Ridge top: 0-5 SW - E
General Discussion: A low pressure system sliding down the BC coast will bring some snow to the mountains tonight and tomorrow. The middle of the week will be mostly dry with another weak system on Friday. Long-term: A large high pressure ridge is expected to develop off the western coast toward the weekend. This will most likely keep any significant weather system at bay through early next week. In other words, no significant snow fall on the 6-10 day horizon.
TRENDS AND TIMING
Precipitation: Light snow showers will fall through the night. A larger push of moisture will move through tomorrow morning and quickly move east during the afternoon. Dry condition will develop for Wednesday and Thursday.
Freezing levels: Freezing level will lower to the 2500’-3500’ range tonight. Freezing levels are expected to rise back up to 4000’ by Wednesday and then continue to rise through the end of the week.
Winds: Winds will swing SW, S, and then East through the next 24 hours. jdm
November 5, 2010
STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER
11/5/2010 Weather
General Discussion:
Clouds will thicken today as a cold front moves through the PNW. Rain will make it to the Cascade crest tonight and continue tomorrow.
Long-term:
Could see some light snow toward the end of the system on Sunday. There are no significant systems beyond the weekend so next week is looking uneventful for now.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Friday
Precipitation
“ Water: Lt. .25
“ of Snow: 0
Temperatures (F): 24hr
Pass level Low: 32 High: 48
Ridge top Low: 34 High: 46
Winds Speed/Direction
Pass level: 0-5 SSW
Ridge top: 0-10 SW
TRENDS AND TIMING
Precipitation: The Pass should get through most of the day dry. Light rain will develop tonight and continue through tomorrow.
Freezing levels: 10,000’ falling to 6000’. Freezing levels are expected to drop to near pass level on Sunday.
Winds: Southerly flow will continue through tomorrow. Westerly flow will develop on Sunday. jdm
General Discussion:
Clouds will thicken today as a cold front moves through the PNW. Rain will make it to the Cascade crest tonight and continue tomorrow.
Long-term:
Could see some light snow toward the end of the system on Sunday. There are no significant systems beyond the weekend so next week is looking uneventful for now.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Friday
Precipitation
“ Water: Lt. .25
“ of Snow: 0
Temperatures (F): 24hr
Pass level Low: 32 High: 48
Ridge top Low: 34 High: 46
Winds Speed/Direction
Pass level: 0-5 SSW
Ridge top: 0-10 SW
TRENDS AND TIMING
Precipitation: The Pass should get through most of the day dry. Light rain will develop tonight and continue through tomorrow.
Freezing levels: 10,000’ falling to 6000’. Freezing levels are expected to drop to near pass level on Sunday.
Winds: Southerly flow will continue through tomorrow. Westerly flow will develop on Sunday. jdm
November 3, 2010
STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER
11/3/2010 Weather
General Discussion: This great weather will continue through tomorrow. Enjoy the sun and warmth.
Long-term: A cooler wet pattern will develop over the weekend and continue into next week.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Wednesday
Precipitation
“ Water: 0
“ of Snow: 0
Temperatures (F): 24hr
Pass level Low: 38 High: 50
Ridge top Low: 34 High: 50
Winds Speed/Direction
Pass level: 5-10 E
Ridge top: 5-10 E gusty
TRENDS AND TIMING
Precipitation: Dry conditions will continue until midday Friday.
Freezing levels: 6000’ rising to 10,000’+
Freezing levels will continue to rise to above 10k today and tomorrow. A cold front on Friday will begin to bring temperature down.
Winds: East flow will weaken and eventually swing S on Friday. jdm
General Discussion: This great weather will continue through tomorrow. Enjoy the sun and warmth.
Long-term: A cooler wet pattern will develop over the weekend and continue into next week.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Wednesday
Precipitation
“ Water: 0
“ of Snow: 0
Temperatures (F): 24hr
Pass level Low: 38 High: 50
Ridge top Low: 34 High: 50
Winds Speed/Direction
Pass level: 5-10 E
Ridge top: 5-10 E gusty
TRENDS AND TIMING
Precipitation: Dry conditions will continue until midday Friday.
Freezing levels: 6000’ rising to 10,000’+
Freezing levels will continue to rise to above 10k today and tomorrow. A cold front on Friday will begin to bring temperature down.
Winds: East flow will weaken and eventually swing S on Friday. jdm
Eye on the Jet
Mondays Nov 8th Jet forcast. A bit more interesting as it starts to flatten out and organize.
If you want the full animated model go to: http://www.narrowbandimaging.com/Jet_stream_forecast_page.htm
If you want the full animated model go to: http://www.narrowbandimaging.com/Jet_stream_forecast_page.htm
November 2, 2010
Jet Streak Forecast for the Weekend
Longer term forecast really hang on jet stream models. The jet is really a series of streaks of high wind speeds and not a continuous stream.
This is a forecast model for Sun the 7th. Notice the upper leading edge beginning to be centered over the PNW. The Jet is dipping below a low pressure system in the Gulf of Alaska. If the whole thing shift north and flattens out, then it could be a good snow producer. If it bends deeper or south then it may not materialize as much. Wind speeds aren't that impressive within the jet so my guess is that it will bend further south. Just a guess though. Something to watch as the time draws closer.
This is a forecast model for Sun the 7th. Notice the upper leading edge beginning to be centered over the PNW. The Jet is dipping below a low pressure system in the Gulf of Alaska. If the whole thing shift north and flattens out, then it could be a good snow producer. If it bends deeper or south then it may not materialize as much. Wind speeds aren't that impressive within the jet so my guess is that it will bend further south. Just a guess though. Something to watch as the time draws closer.
STEVENS PASS MOUNTIAN WEATHER
11/2/2010 Weather
General Discussion:
High pressure will build over the interior west today. This will provide warm and dry weather for the rest of the week. Enjoy the mini Indian summer.
Long-term:
Then next round of moisture with cooler air is expected by the weekend.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Tuesday
Precipitation
“ Water: 0
“ of Snow: 0
Temperatures (F): 24hr Freezing Level Range and Trend
Pass level Low: 32 High: 50 6000 rising to 10,000’
Ridge top Low: 28 High: 48
Winds Speed/Direction
Pass level: 5-10 E
Ridge top: 5-10 E
TRENDS AND TIMING
Precipitation: A few showers will linger on the crest today as the atmosphere begins to stabilize and dry out. Dry condition will persist through Thursday/Friday.
Freezing levels: Freezing levels will remain well above pass level for the rest of the week. However, clear skies along with east flow will allow surface temperature to drop to the freezing point during the early morning hours.
Winds: East flow will develop today with some gusty periods possible. jdm
General Discussion:
High pressure will build over the interior west today. This will provide warm and dry weather for the rest of the week. Enjoy the mini Indian summer.
Long-term:
Then next round of moisture with cooler air is expected by the weekend.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Tuesday
Precipitation
“ Water: 0
“ of Snow: 0
Temperatures (F): 24hr Freezing Level Range and Trend
Pass level Low: 32 High: 50 6000 rising to 10,000’
Ridge top Low: 28 High: 48
Winds Speed/Direction
Pass level: 5-10 E
Ridge top: 5-10 E
TRENDS AND TIMING
Precipitation: A few showers will linger on the crest today as the atmosphere begins to stabilize and dry out. Dry condition will persist through Thursday/Friday.
Freezing levels: Freezing levels will remain well above pass level for the rest of the week. However, clear skies along with east flow will allow surface temperature to drop to the freezing point during the early morning hours.
Winds: East flow will develop today with some gusty periods possible. jdm
November 1, 2010
STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER
11/1/2010 Weather
General Discussion:
The mountains will get a good dose of rain today due to a large SW fetch of moisture hitting the PNW. A dry aim mass will settle in tomorrow.
Long-term:
A large high pressure system covering the entire western part of the country will produce dry and relatively benign weather here in Washington for the remainder of the week. The next weather system will start to affect the Cascade Mountains on Friday.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Monday
Precipitation
“ Water: .5
“ of Snow: 0
Temperatures (F) 24hr Freezing Level Range and Trend__
Pass level Low: 40 High: 50 5000’ rising to 10,000’
Ridge top Low: 36 High: 44
Winds Speed/Direction
Pass level: 5-10 SW
Ridge top: 5-10 SW gusty
TRENDS AND TIMING
Precipitation: Rain will begin to taper off after sundown today. Light rain showers will linger over the crest through noon tomorrow. We can expect dry conditions for the rest of the week.
Freezing levels: Warm advection will take place today from the SW. Freezing levels could peak as high as 12k by Wednesday. Cooler air expected with Fridays systems.
Winds: Gusty SW flow will taper tonight and shift to light easterlies tomorrow.
General Discussion:
The mountains will get a good dose of rain today due to a large SW fetch of moisture hitting the PNW. A dry aim mass will settle in tomorrow.
Long-term:
A large high pressure system covering the entire western part of the country will produce dry and relatively benign weather here in Washington for the remainder of the week. The next weather system will start to affect the Cascade Mountains on Friday.
24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Monday
Precipitation
“ Water: .5
“ of Snow: 0
Temperatures (F) 24hr Freezing Level Range and Trend__
Pass level Low: 40 High: 50 5000’ rising to 10,000’
Ridge top Low: 36 High: 44
Winds Speed/Direction
Pass level: 5-10 SW
Ridge top: 5-10 SW gusty
TRENDS AND TIMING
Precipitation: Rain will begin to taper off after sundown today. Light rain showers will linger over the crest through noon tomorrow. We can expect dry conditions for the rest of the week.
Freezing levels: Warm advection will take place today from the SW. Freezing levels could peak as high as 12k by Wednesday. Cooler air expected with Fridays systems.
Winds: Gusty SW flow will taper tonight and shift to light easterlies tomorrow.
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