Stevens Pass Mountain Weather

Fall is clearly in the air. Freezing levels dipped to 5500’ this morning with the first strong cold front that passed through in months. The higher peaks certainly received their first dusting snow. It is that time of year to look for that shift in weather patterns that commits us to fall. Typical of early seasonal weather patterns, trends tend to be chaotic, providing occasional commitment to the up coming season.


This week will be follow that early season pattern by starting out cold and unstable. Low level clouds will stick to the Cascade Crest through tomorrow. High pressure will reestablish itself tomorrow allowing skies to clear, and temperatures to rebound into the 60’s or low 70’s by the end of the week. The long term weather models indicate a dry weather pattern lasting well into next week.

STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER

4/20/2012 Weather


General Discussion: A weak cold front moved through this morning dropping freezing levels just a touch. The precipitation will slowly come to an end today as the atmosphere begins to stabilize and pressure rises.

Long-term: High pressure pushing up from the south will produce a dry warm weekend. Some high clouds will linger tomorrow with sunshine expected on Sunday.

24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Friday

Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight=.10
“of additional water by 4am=0
“of additional water by 12pm=0

24hr total “of water = .10

24hr Snow Total= 0-2

Trend and Timing:
The snow is expected to end something today. Tonight and the rest of the weekend will be dry.

Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 30 High: 45
Freezing level: 4000’ 6000’

Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will hover at or just above Pass level for the remainder of the day. Temperature will begin to rise through the weekend with freezing levels topping 8000’ by Sunday morning.

Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
0-5 W

Trend and Timing:
Light westerly flow will continue

JM

STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER

4/19/2012 Weather


General Discussion: The approaching warm front will push a rather juicy storm through the PNW tonight and tomorrow. We can expect moderate to heavy rain for most of the resort.

Long-term: High pressure is expected to bring dry and warm weather for the weekend.

24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Thursday

Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight= .5
“of additional water by 4am=.25
“of additional water by 12pm=.25

24hr total “of water = .75-1

24hr Snow Total= 0- 3

Trend and Timing:
The rain should arrive sometime this afternoon and continue through tomorrow. Rain could be heavy at times. Some wet heavy snow will be possible on the upper mountain but it will be very wet and probably not accumulate too much.

Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 34 High: 40
Freezing level: 4000’ 6000’

Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will rise through the day and then drop a bit as the following cold front moves in late tonight or early tomorrow. Surface temperatures will remain seasonally average and may top 50f on Sunday.

Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
0-5 E shifting W

Trend and Timing:
Light east flow will develop today and then shift westerly overnight. The winds don’t seem to be much of a factor with this storm.

JM

STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER

4/13/2012 Weather

General Discussion: An approaching high pressure ridge will produce clear and sunny weather today. Good diurnal temperature swings should create some good corn snow for the weekend.

Long-term: Dry and clear conditions will prevail through the weekend with rain expected to start out the week.

24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Friday
 Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight= <.10
“of additional water by 4am=0
“of additional water by 12pm=0

24hr total “of water =>.10

24hr Snow Total= 0

Trend and Timing:
There is some light precipitation showing up on radar just to the northwest of Stevens Pass this morning. Other than of few of those showers making through, dry conditions are expected to continue through the weekend.

Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 28 High: 42
Freezing level: 4500’

Trend and Timing:
While freezing levels stick around 4500’, the sun will push surface temperatures into the 40’s today. Night time temperatures should drop below freezing for another melt/freeze cycle tomorrow.

Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
0-10 WNW

Trend and Timing:
Westerly flow at the surface with NW flow aloft will continue through the weekend.

JM

STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER

4/12/2012 Weather


General Discussion: Mostly dry conditions with a chance of some light snow showers will finish out the week.

Long-term: Partly sunny conditions with a few light passing showers will persist through the weekend.


24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Thursday

Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight=.10
“of additional water by 4am= <.10
“of additional water by 12pm=0

24hr total “of water = <.25

24hr Snow Total= Trace

Trend and Timing:
Some light snow showers will be possible as small band of moisture make their way north later today. Mostly dry and sunny con

Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 26 High: 40
Freezing level: +- 4500

Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will hover around 4500’ for the next few days. There will be good potential for a melt freeze cycle with warm days and cool nights.

Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
0-10 W

Trend and Timing:
Light westerly flow will continue.

JM

STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER

4/11/2012 Weather

General Discussion: Radar shows a band of moisture drifting up the west slopes of the Cascades today. Cooler air will allow a chance of some snow on the upper mountain with a mix of rain and snow in the base area.

Long-term: This weather pattern of light passing showers with intermittent clearing looks like it will be with us for the next 6-10 days. A typical spring pattern in the Cascades I suppose.

24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Wednesday

Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight= 25
“of additional water by 4am= .10
“of additional water by 12pm= <.10

24hr total “of water = .25-.5

24hr Snow Total= 1-4

Trend and Timing:
This afternoon and evening could be rather wet with rain in the base area and mixed rain and snow on the upper mountain.

Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 30 High: 36
Freezing level: 5500’ 4000’

Trend and Timing:
The freezing levels will hover between 4000’ and 5000’ for the rest of the week and likely through the weekend.

Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
0-10 W

Trend and Timing:
Light westerly flow at the surface will accompany these weak fronts. Some gustier conditions will be possible along the ridge tops tonight.

JM

STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER

4/7/2012 Weather

General Discussion: Ahhh sunshine. Other than a few high clouds passing by, today will be sunny and dry. Tomorrow will be mostly dry with the cloud deck thickening through the day.

Long-term: A stalled low pressure system sitting off of the Oregon coast will produce mostly cloudy weather with a chance of some light rain for the first part of next week. Southerly flow aloft will also bring higher freezing levels.

24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Saturday

Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight=0
“of additional water by 4am=0
“of additional water by 12pm=0

24hr total “of water = 0

24hr Snow Total= 0

Trend and Timing:
Dry conditions will continue through the weekend.

Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 22 High: 38
Freezing level: 3000’ 5000’

Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will slowly rise during the next 24hrs. Strong easterly flow will help keep surface temperatures below freezing through the night.

Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
5-15 E

Trend and Timing:
East flow will strengthen tonight bringing breezy conditions tomorrow.

JM

STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER

4/5/2012 Weather

General Discussion: As anticipated, just some light snow showers lingering around area today. We should see some sun this afternoon as the atmosphere warms up and the surface clouds begin to thin.

Long-term: Dry conditions with warming are expected for the weekend. Rising freezing levels with the chance of some light rain will greet the upcoming week.


24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Thursday

Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight= .10
“of additional water by 4am= 0
“of additional water by 12pm=.10

24hr total “of water = lt .25

24hr Snow Total= Trace

Trend and Timing:
With the exception of a few light passing snow showers, dry conditions will prevail through most of the weekend.

Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 20 High: 32
Freezing level: 3500’ 2500’

Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will fall a bit as more cool air settles in. Warmer temperatures are expected to arrive on Saturday with freezing levels rising to 5000’ by Sunday.

Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
0-5 W

Trend and Timing:
Light westerly winds will continue through tomorrow. East flow will develop and strengthen over the weekend.

JM

STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER

4/4/2012 Weather

General Discussion: Weak pressure gradients along with cool NW flow will keep the threat of light snow showers with periods of sun in the forecast for the remainder of the week.

Long-term: A low pressure system is expected to develop off the western coast over the weekend. This is expected to stay off shore, so moisture is not much of a concern for the mountains. What this will likely do is draw up warm air from the interior south, which will allow temperatures rise. We could see the warmest temperature of the year by early next week. Unstable convection could also bring thunderstorms into the discussion.


24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Wednesday

Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight=<.10
“of additional water by 4am=.05
“of additional water by 12pm= .05

24hr total “of water = +- .10

24hr Snow Total= 0-2

Trend and Timing:
Uneventful light snow showers will persist for the next few days.

Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 18 High: 24
Freezing level: +- 2500’

Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will remain well below pass level through Friday.

Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
0-10 WNW

Trend and Timing:
Light NW flow will continue to move over the mountains for the remainder of the week.

JM

Spring?

Unseasonble cold temperatures are expected for the rest of the week.  Long range models have the western portion of the US heating up significantly early next week.   Time will tell, but if this materializes we could see the warmest temperatures of the year.  Freezing levels 10K or higher.   Snow pack stability may be effected.

850mb temperature model for Monday April 9th - Red indicates 8-10K freezing levels.

JM 

STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER

4/3/2012 Weather
General Discussion: A cold front will slowly move across the state today bringing with it cooler temperatures and snow showers.

Long-term: There is not much excitement in the long range weather forecast. A cool unstable air mass will settle over the area tonight with scattered snow showers and sun breaks for the remainder of the week. The weekend appears dry with a significant warming event developing early next week.

24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Tuesday

Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight= <.25
“of additional water by 4am=<.10
“of additional water by 12pm= 0

24hr total “of water = .25

24hr Snow Total=1-3

Trend and Timing:
There may be a brief chance of some rain with the initial band of moisture just about to enter the mountains. Light snow showers will follow the front with mostly dry conditions expected tomorrow.

Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 24 High: 34
Freezing level: 4500’ 2500’

Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will slowly fall throughout the day. Freezing levels will hover between 2500’ and 3000’ for the remainder of the week.

Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
5-10 W

Trend and Timing:
A westerly flow pattern will develop later today. Light westerly winds are expected throughout the week.

JM

STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER

3/30/2012 Weather

General Discussion: There will be a short break in the action this afternoon before the next system lifts up from the south early tomorrow morning. Systems from the south usually mean warmer air, this is no exception, so expect some rain mixed in with the snow.

Long-term: This stormy wet pattern will persist through the start of next week.

24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Friday

Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight= <.25
“of additional water by 4am= .10
“of additional water by 12pm=.25

24hr total “of water = .5

24hr Snow Total= 3-5

Trend and Timing:
Snow showers will diminish throughout the remainder of the day. The next round of moisture is expected to arrive during the early morning hours. Tomorrow’s weather show will be snow turning to mixed rain and then changing back to snow tomorrow night.

Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 26 High: 34
Freezing level: 3500’ 4500’

Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will stay below pass level through the night and then rise to 4500’ during the day tomorrow. Cooler air arrives on Sunday with freezing levels dropping to 3000’.

Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
5-10 W shifting E

Trend and Timing:
Light westerly flow will shift back to easterly overnight.

JM

STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER

3/29/2012 Weather

General Discussion: Another glorious powder day at Stevens Pass. Snow will continue for the remainder of the week.

Long-term: The northern jet stream continues to be content driving storms through the PNW. Active weather will likely continue well into next week.

24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Thursday

Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight= .5
“of additional water by 4am= .25
“of additional water by 12pm= .10

24hr total “of water = .75

24hr Snow Total= 6-10

Trend and Timing:
Moderate snow will continue for the rest of the day. Snow is expected to slowly shift to intermittent showers after midnight with snow showers continuing tomorrow.

Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 26 High: 32
Freezing level: +- 4000’

Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels will hover right at Pass level through tomorrow.

Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
5-10 SW

Trend and Timing:
The easterly flow should give way to SW flow during the next 24 hrs. Higher gust will continue along the upper ridges.

JM

STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER

3/28/2012 Weather

General Discussion: This morning’s radar shows bands of broken clouds moving through the region with just spotty showers and sun breaks. The first of two strong frontal systems will sweep through the state tonight bringing moderate to heavy snow to the mountains tomorrow and Friday.

Long-term: The NW jet stream will continue to bring active weather to the PNW through the weekend and likely into next week.

24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Wednesday

Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight= .10
“of additional water by 4am= .25
“of additional water by 12pm= .5

24hr total “of water = .75

24hr Snow Total= 8-10

Trend and Timing:
Models suggest the timing of the main event will be after midnight tonight. Snow will intensify through the morning and then turn to showers in the afternoon.

Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 28 High: 34
Freezing level: 3500’

Trend and Timing:
Some sun breaks today could push surface temperature above freezing. Freezing levels will hover between 3000’ and 4000’ through these storms.

Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
Surface - 0-10 E,
Ridge Tops - 10-15 SW

Trend and Timing:
While there is a high wind advisory for the coast and the south sound, we should be sheltered from those winds. Therefore expect gusty SW winds along the ridge tops and east flow at Pass level.

JM

Bridger Bowl Avalanche

A completely skier compacted slope at Bridger avalanches.  Note to self.


https://www.facebook.com/home.php#!/media/set/?set=a.10150658777653759.395316.360786338758&type=3

STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER

3/27/2012 Weather

General Discussion: The first of several weak fronts will move through the mountains beginning today. Warmer air will also arrive this evening raising freezing levels for a short period.

Long-term: A stronger frontal system late Wednesday night is expected to bring measurable snow on Thursday. Cool NW flow will keep the threat of snow through the weekend.

24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Tuesday

Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight= <.25
“of additional water by 4am= .10
“of additional water by 12pm= .10

24hr total “of water = >.25

24hr Snow Total= 1-3

Trend and Timing:
Light snow showers will pass through the mountains today and tomorrow. A mixture of light rain/snow will be possible below 4500’ tonight. No significant accumulation is expected until Thursday.

Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 24 High: 36
Freezing level: 4000’ 4500’ 3500

Trend and Timing:
Freezing levels are expected to spike up to 4500’ after closing today. Temperatures will then fall back below Pass level during the early morning hours.


Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
0-10 E

Trend and Timing:
Easterly flow at pass level should stay intact while SW winds hit the ridge tops tomorrow.

JM

Weather Short

SW flow will begin a progressively wetter weather pattern starting today. The freezing levels will bounce between 4-5k tomorrow with a nice mixture of rain and snow.    Cooler air with more moisture arrives on Wednesday - so another week will finish with more snow added to the pack. 

JM

STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER

3/24/2012 Weather

General Discussion: There are some weak disturbances moving up the coast today, hence the high clouds. We are still expecting mostly dry conditions today and most of tomorrow.

Long-term: It looks like a soggy weather pattern for most of next week. Freezing levels are expected to bounce between 4000’ and 5500’ with several bands of moisture progressively getting juicier as the week progresses.

24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Saturday

Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight= 0
“of additional water by 4am= 0
“of additional water by 12pm= <.10

24hr total “of water = trace

24hr Snow Total= 0

Trend and Timing:
There is a slight possibility of some very light rain tomorrow but it should be hardly noticeable.

Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 30 High: 40
Freezing level: 4000’ 5000’

Trend and Timing:
Mild temperatures will continue through tomorrow. Freezing levels are expected to peak at or above 5000’ sometime tonight and remain high for the rest of the weekend.

Winds Speed (mph)/Directio
0-5E shifting W

Trend and Timing:
Light easterly wind today will shift to light westerlies tomorrow.

JM

STEVENS PASS MOUNTAIN WEATHER

3/23/2012 Weather

General Discussion: It is good to see the sun. Dry and sunny conditions will continue through the weekend.

Long-term: Long-term models show a return to active wet weather early next week.

24 hour Forecast Starting at NOON on Friday

Cumulative Precipitation Totals:
“water by midnight= 0
“of additional water by 4am=0
“of additional water by 12pm=0

24hr total “of water =0

24hr Snow Total= 0

Trend and Timing:
0

Base Area Temperatures (F):
Low: 18 High: 34
Freezing level: 2500’ 4000’

Trend and Timing:
Rising freezing levels and sun will team up to bring warm daytime temperatures. Good cooling under clear skies will also occur at night.

Winds Speed (mph)/Direction
5-15 E

Trend and Timing:
Light easterly winds are expected today with east flow strengthen overnight.

JM

Temperature Return to Seasonal Norms.

The over all temperature regime is expected to warm to seasonal norms on Saturday.   

Yellow and orange colors indicate 4k-5K freezing levels @ 850mb.  Warmer temps are fairly wide spread over the waters of the Pacific.