Let's Talk Climate

El Nino or not? NOAA’s monthly climate analysis came out last week. Below is a scaled down review. If you want the whole anchalata go to:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/index.shtml

The watch for El Niño conditions to develop continunes. The summer, (fall equinox) is expected to close with “neutral” conditions. However, there are continuing signs of an imminent transition towards El Niño. With out getting bogged down in the manusha of dynamic models vs statistical models, the official word is that weak El Nino conditions are likel to form early this fall and escalate to moderate through the winter.

General El Nino effects:
During El Niño, the northern tier of the lower 48, as well as southern Alaska, exhibits above normal temperatures during the fall and winter, while the southern tier experiences below normal temperatures during the winter season.

During El Nino events, increased precipitation is expected in California due to a more southerly, zonal, storm track. Increased precipitation falls along the Gulf coast and Southeast due to a stronger than expected, and more southerly, polar jet stream. In the late winter and spring during El Niño events, drier than average conditions can be expected in PNW.

Snow Fall:
During an El Niño, snowfall is greater than normal across the southern Rockies and Sierra Nevada mountain range, and is well-below average across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes states. During a La Niña, snowfall is above normal across the Pacific Northwest and western Great Lakes