Its that time of year when El Nino discussion start to circulate.
All season climate predictions are all based
on the ENSO (El Nino/Nina) prediction models.
In the link belwo (last graph) are the 25 major ENSO prediction models. The 0.0 line represents neutral or no El Nino
or El Nina. El Nino conditions start
above the +0.5 while El Nina conditions would
be below (-0.5) the median line.
The models split the 0 median line almost equally. Based on this, confidence is fairly strong that North American can expect a “normal” winter in all geographical locations. The key question is what is normal?
If you want to geek out further on the
graph, look at the trend of the models starting in Feb, March, April (FMA).
They begin to trend slightly up, or towards El Nino conditions. This will be something to keep and eye on as
the season/ year progresses.
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