November 14, 2013

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST


Time: 0900
 
The Snapshot:  Light rain and snow with sun breaks will continue today; heavy snow will begin tomorrow afternoon and continue through Saturday morning.

The Science:  Today will be pretty quiet with light precipitation lingering along the west slope of the Cascades.  Pressure gradients will begin to increase as a storm tracking in from the north enters the scene tomorrow.  Moderate to heavy snow will be likely tomorrow afternoon and night.  Storm totals by 10am Saturday are between .75 -1.25” of water or 10-14” of snow.  Convergence Zone development will help intensify orographics for the Passes.  A fast moving cold front moves through early Saturday morning which will cut off the precipitation and drop freezing levels to below 1000’ by Sunday.   

4-7day Long Range:  Dry condition with sun breaks will prevail from noon Saturday through early Tuesday.  The jet stream shift south early next week which will likely bring warmer temps and a chance of some precipitation for the middle of the week.  


 
24hr Accumulative Precipitation Totals Starting at Noon Today:
 
Water by 4am = <. 25 Snow equivalent = 0-2
 
Total inches of water by noon tomorrow = .25
Total inches of snow by noon tomorrow = 1-2
 
Trend and Timing:
 
Today’s precipitation will be confined to the west slopes of the Cascades.  Snow will ramp up around midday tomorrow with heavy snow expected tomorrow night.
 
 
 
24hr Base Area Temperatures (F) Starting at Noon Today: 

Low: 26     High: 32
Freezing level: +-4000’     3500’
 
Trend and Timing: 
 
Temperatures will hover around 32f today.  Freezing levels are expected to fluctuate between 3000’ and 4000’ through this storm.  Cold air will filter in from the north on Saturday and Sunday with low temperatures in the teens likely.
   
 
 
24hr Winds Speed (mph)/Direction Starting at Noon Today:
 
Base: 5-10 W strengthening
Ridge Top: 5-15 W
 
Trend and Timing:
 
Winds will begin to strengthen early tomorrow morning with the arrival of the storm.  Strong westerly flow will accompany this system with gust above 40pmh likely.    
 

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0800 Start Tues Jan 20th, no ABS