November 27, 2013

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST


Time and Day: 1030 Wednesday
 

The Snapshot: Partly cloudy today and tomorrow with dry conditions prevailing in the mountains through Friday.


The Science:  After a few more days of fairly benign weather, the polar jet is expected to take aim at the PNW.  This will open the door for a strong frontal system with abundant moisture to track through the PNW over the weekend. 


4-7day Long Range: As of now, this is how it is looking like it will play out:  Light rain reaching the mountains late Friday afternoon with freezing levels around 5000’.  Freezing levels drop to 4500’ on Saturday with mixed snow and rain. A strong cold front arrives early Sunday morning with heavy snow in the mountains possible.   Of course, this is still a few days out so I will be watching this closely as the timing and details become more clear. 


High pressure begins to rebuild on Monday for another prolonged dry period to start the new month.   



 
Precipitation:
 
Water by 4am = 0 Snow equivalent =0
 
Total inches of water by noon tomorrow = 0
Total inches of snow by noon tomorrow = 0
 
Trends and Timing:
 
The atmosphere will remain dry through Friday.
 
 
 
Base Temp and Freezing levels: 
                                     
Low: 30    High: 42
Freezing level: 4000’    5000’
 
Trend and Timing:   
 
Freezing levels will slowly rise during the next 24hrs as the easterly flow gets overtaken by warmer western air.  Daytime temperatures could touch 50f tomorrow afternoon.   Surface temperatures will remain on the warm side through Friday.
 
 
 
Winds:
 
Base: 0-10 E  shifting W
Ridge Top: 5-10 E shifting W
 
Trend and Timing:
 
Winds will shift westerly tomorrow night in preparation of the incoming system on Friday.
 

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