November 30, 2013

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day: 1000 Saturday


The Snapshot:  Light snow and rain today.  Heavy rain and high winds tomorrow changing to snow tomorrow night.


The Science:  The northern jet stream is taking direct aim at the PNW today while entraining a warm wet tropical air mass.   The warm air mass will meet the Polar jet late tomorrow night which will equate to moderate to heavy snow in the mountains on Monday.  But first, we will have to endure a ton of rain and high winds tomorrow.   


Storm totals.   Water content by noon tomorrow could exceed 3” of water (mostly rain).  6-10” of snow 4am Monday. An additional +-12” by 4am Tuesday.  Timing of cold air aloft and favorable orographics (convergence) could push these totals up.  


4-7day Long Range: Skies will clear on Tuesday with extremely cold temperature being ushered in from the north.  The remainder of the week looks cold and clear.

 

 
Precipitation:
 
Water by 4am = 1” Snow equivalent = 0
 
Total inches of water by noon tomorrow = 1.75 -2” +
Total inches of snow by noon tomorrow = 0 at base 2-6 on ridge
 
Trend and Timing:
 
Light showers today with precipitation intensifying tonight.  Heavy rain is expected below Hogsback. The upper ridge will have its share of rain but with a mixture of snow.  The snow line hits the highway late tomorrow night.
 
 
 
Base Temp and Freezing levels: 
                                     
Low: 32   High: 42
Freezing level:  4000’     5500’
 
Trend and Timing:
 
Freezing levels will rise just above 5000’ today.  Temperatures will begin fall midday tomorrow with freezing levels fall below 4000’ sometime tomorrow night.
 
 
 
Wind:
 
Base:  10-20 SWS
Ridge Top: 15-30 W   
 
Trend and Timing:
 
High wind advisory will be in effect for early tomorrow morning with gust above 50mph possible along the upper ridges.  Sustained winds above 25mph will be likely through most of the day tomorrow.
 

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