November 7, 2013

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST



Time: 0930
 

The Snapshot: Rain/snow mix today turning to snow tonight.  Light scattered snow showers tomorrow.   


The Science: A cold front will push through the region today.  This will increase the precipitation intensity this afternoon and tonight.  Intermittent snow showers will develop in the wake of the front as cool NW flow develops tomorrow.  Pressure gradients begin to subside by tomorrow afternoon bringing and end to the winds as well.  


4-7day Long Range: The storm track shift south over the weekend with just passing showers expected through the middle of next week.  Warm southerly air is expected to lift north on Monday. This will likely push freezing levels above 6000’ for the first half of the week.



 
24hr Accumulative Precipitation Totals Starting at Noon Today:
 
Water by 4am = .5 -.75 Snow equivalent = 4-6
 
Total inches of water by noon tomorrow = .75 -1
Total inches of snow by noon tomorrow = 5-12
 
Trends and Timing:
 
The precipitation will intensify today with a 2-4hr period of rain likely below 4500’.   Rain is expected to shift back to snow tonight and taper to intermittent showers tomorrow.
 
 
24hr Base Area Temperatures (F) Starting at Noon Today: 
                                    
Low: 30    High: 36
Freezing level: 4000’          5000’    4000’
 
Trend and Timing:  
 
Freezing levels will briefly spike up to 5000’ today.  Freezing levels will descend and then jump between 3500’ and 4500’ through the tomorrow.
 
 
24hr Winds Speed (mph)/Direction Starting at Noon Today:
 
Base: 10-20 WNW
Ridge Top:15-30 W  Gust to 40 possible above 4500’
 
Trend and Timing:
 
East flow will switch WNW and strengthen with the passing of the front today.   Strong ridge top winds can be expected this afternoon and evening.   NW flow will dominate tomorrow with east flow re-establishing over the weekend.
 

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0800 Start Tues Jan 20th, no ABS