December 19, 2013

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day: 1000 Thursday


The Snapshot: Clouds will thicken today with the approach the next weather system.  Snow begins late tonight and continues tomorrow.  There will be a period of mixed snow and rain below 4500’ tomorrow afternoon.
 

The Science:  A strong warm front packing a bunch of moisture will drop in from the NW tomorrow morning.   Heavy snow is expected during the meat of the day with periods of rain throughout.  Freezing levels will bounce between 4k and 5k with waves of snow and rain.  The upper ridges should see mostly snow.

 
Storm totals:  Water equivalent by 4pm Sunday could exceed 3”.  12-24” of snow.  If we luck out with the freezing levels snow totals could be hirer.


4-7day Long Range:  The main bulk of the moisture will be over by Saturday night.  Light snow showers will continue through Sunday.  A cold front arrives on Monday with lowering temperatures and snow to start out the holiday week.  High pressure builds over the PNW on Tuesday for dry and clear weather expected to finish out the week.
 

 
Precipitation:
 
Water by 4am = .25  Snow equivalent = 2-4
 
Total inches of water by noon tomorrow = .5-.75
Total inches of snow by noon tomorrow = 6-10”
 
Trends and Timing:
Snow will develop around midnight tonight and be relatively light to start.  Snow will intensify during the day with hopefully a good foot or more of snow by day’s end.  A period of rain below the top of Hogsback can be anticipated tomorrow afternoon.
 
 
 
 
Base Temp and Freezing levels: 
                                     
Low:28    High: 34
Freezing level: 2000’      4500’
 
Trend and Timing:
 
The freezing level should remain below 4000’ through at least noon tomorrow.  Temperatures will rise above freezing as the warm air mixes with the cold air.  Freezing levels will hover around +- 4500’ through Sunday.
 
 
 
 
Winds (mph)
 
Base: 5- 10 WSW   
Ridge Top:  10-20  WSW  Gusty
 
Trend and Timing:
 
Winds will shift westerly this afternoon.  Winds will be fairly light tonight.  Strong WSW ridge top winds can be expected tomorrow with the passing of the front.  +40 mph winds will be possible.
 

 

 

 

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