January 1, 2014

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day: 0930 Wednesday


The Snapshot: The New Year begins with light snow and or rain showers with sun breaks today and tomorrow.  Rain changing to snow late tomorrow afternoon/evening. (see trends and timing below)


The Science:  The high pressure ridge will flatten and sag south today. This will allow the atmosphere to destabilize and thus allow weak showers to develop.  A cold front drives in tomorrow afternoon producing moderate to heavy precipitation in the mountains.  (mostly snow – see below) Snow ends around noon on Friday.  


4-7day Long Range:  And yes, high pressure returns Friday afternoon for a dry and mostly sunny weekend.


Precipitation:
Water by 4am = <.25   Snow equivalent = 0
 
Total inches of water by noon tomorrow = .25
Total inches of snow by noon tomorrow = 0
 
Trend and Timing:
Very light scattered showers today with little measurable amounts expected through noon tomorrow.  The main front arrives tomorrow afternoon.  Rain to start then turning to snow.  Models have the timing as such:   Snow above 4500’ with rain in the base area, snow levels will fall below 4000’ within an hour or two of the start of the precipitation.
Moderate snow expected to fall through the night.
 
Storm totals from 4pm Thursday through noon Friday are +-.75” of water and 6-10” of snow.
 
 
Base Temp and Freezing levels: 
Low: 30    High: 40
Freezing level: 3000      5500’
 
Trends and Timing
Freezing levels will rise above 5000’ this afternoon and remain there through most of tomorrow.  Freezing levels will fall below 4000’ after 4pm tomorrow.  Temperatures will continue to fall through the storm. 
 
Winds (mph)
Base: 0-5 E
Ridge Top: 0-10 SW  
 
Trend and Timing:
Light east flow at the surface with SW flow aloft will continue through the night.  Winds will shift westerly and strengthen with passing of the front
Tomorrow.

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