January 2, 2014

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day: 0900 Thursday

The Snapshot:  Scattered rain showers today changing to moderate snow tonight.  Windy tonight with lowering temperatures, snow ending tomorrow.

 
The Science: A prefrontal wave has pushed rain into the mountains this morning. The approaching cold fronts (yes there are two) will increase precipitation this afternoon.  Rain is expected to turn to snow with the passing of the first front tonight.   Moderate snow is expected through the night.  High pressure develops behind the second cold front which will cut off the precipitation tomorrow.    

 
4-7day Long Range:  The weekend will be dry, chilly and mostly sunny under strengthening high pressure.   Long range models show a pattern change to NW flow developing next week.  Watch for storms tracking through the region during the second part of the week.   


Precipitation:
Water by 4am = .75”  
Snow equivalent = 6-10”  a few more possible on upper mountain.
 
Total inches of water by noon tomorrow = .75+
Total inches of snow by noon tomorrow = 6-10
 
Trends and Timing:
The main precipitation arrives mid to late afternoon today. The upper elevations should see mostly snow with rain turning the snow in the base area an hour or so after sunset.  Snow will begin to diminish during the early morning hours.  Light snow showers will linger through mid day tomorrow.
 
 
Base Temp and Freezing levels: 
Low:  24   High: 36
Freezing level: 5000’         3000’
 
Trends and Timing
Freezing levels hover near 5000’ for most of the day.  Once the first front moves through, temperatures will begin to fall.  Freezing levels could reach 2000’ by the end of tomorrow.  
 
 
Winds (mph)
Base:  5-15 W gusty
Ridge Top: 10-20 WNW gusty
 
Trend and Timing:
Winds will strengthen tonight with gust near 40mph likely. Winds will diminish mid morning.   Light NNW winds will be the general flow pattern through the weekend.
 

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