February 14, 2014

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST


Time and Day: 0830 Friday

The Snapshot:  More snow and wind today.  There will be another break in the action tonight with another round of snow tomorrow.  Storms keep rolling in through the middle of next week.

The Science:  The next frontal system is approaching the mountains this morning.  This will bring a spike in temperature and heavy precipitation.  Another front with a similar effect will arrive mid day tomorrow with yet another one Sunday.  All of these systems are warm fronts followed by cold fronts with rising and falling freezing levels.  High frontal winds will continue to be strong with the passing of the fronts.    

4-7day Long Range: When will this storm cycle end?   Long range models have a cooler and dryer NW flow pattern developing during the middle of next week with high pressure building off shore.  If these features continue to develop, the storm cycle will come to an end around Wednesday.   In the mean time, the mountains will receive copious amounts of snow. 

Precipitation:
Water by 4am = .25 Snow = 2-4
24hr total inches of water ending at noon tomorrow = .5
24hr total inches of snow ending at noon tomorrow = 3-5
 
Trend and Timing:
The snow will begin to taper off late this afternoon with the next front arriving around midday tomorrow.   Therefore, not much snow expected over night.
 
 
Base Temp and Freezing levels: 
Low: 24    High: 32
Freezing level: 4500’    3000’
 
Trends and Timing
Freezing levels will temporarily rise to +4500/5000’ today and then fall to 3000’ by tomorrow.   A similar event with another spike in temperatures is expected with tomorrow’s front.   
 
 
Winds (mph)
Base: 5-15 w gusty
Ridge Top: 10-30  strong
 
Trend and Timing:
Westerly winds will kick in this morning with the passing of the front.  A high wind advisory will be in effect though most of the day.  40-50mph winds will be possible along the ridge tops.

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