Typical Early Mountain Snow

It is no surprise that the mountains are receiving snow.  With El Nino not officially developed, and with most climate predictors forecasting a weak existence at best, a “normal” start to the snow season is in the works. 

So, what is happening out the in the atmospheric world of the PNW?   Seasonal changes in weather patterns are usually unorganized and fickle. This pattern is no exception.   The jet stream has storms stacked and aimed at the PNW but; there are also huge pockets of warm air associated with the approaching low-pressure troughs.  We can thank what is left of Hurricane Ana for the warm saturated southern flow heading our way.  A few cool weak high pressure ridges will pass through from time to time (today) but the overall pattern will be dominated by warm SSW flow. 

The Forecast:

Today, Sunday, is one of those passing high-pressure ridges that will bring a break in the precipitation.  Freezing levels will stick around 4000’ through early tomorrow morning with little to no additional snow.  

The next approaching low-pressure system will enter the scene tomorrow evening; this will raise freezing levels above 7000’ and bring heavy rain to the mountains through Tuesday.  Another weak high-pressure ridge passes over on Wednesday for break in the action.

The week ends with a strong southern fetch of moisture with freezing levels in the neighborhood of +-8000’.     A typical late Oct early November weather pattern for the PNW.   

PS:  Daily moutain weather forecast will begin Monday Nov 3rd.  

JM

Stanley June 2000 - Oct 23 2014

This was no ordinary dog-human relationship.

Let us not forget the 12 years of service as an avalanche  rescue team that Stanley and Ryan gave to the this company and community.  Stanley and Ryan were at the forefront of developing Stevens Pass’s avalanche dog training program;  a program that is consider elite in North America. 

Stanley and Ryan trained in Switzerland, quickly became Back Country Avalanche Rescue K9 (BARK) certified in Washington State.  Stanley and Ryan were lead instructors for Swiss Method of searching, lead examiners for the State BARK certification exam.  Their combined skill and knowledge of avalanche rescue contributed greatly in the development of the Washington State Department of Emergency Management avalanche rescue standards.  This standard is widely used by PNW Winter Search and Rescue community today.      

  

This remarkable achievement takes 1000’s of hours of training and dedication, countless hours digging, running and search training no matter the weather.   Training and avalanche dogs starts when the dog is 7 weeks old and doesn’t stop until the dog retires around +-10years.  You can imagine the bond that forms when that much time and effort is spent together.   Stanley lived a remarkable life that most dogs have no idea exist. 

October 9th Climate Prediction

Summary:  Neutral conditions continued for the month of September.  The consensus of forecasters indicates a 2-in-3 chance (62% chance) of El Niño during the November 2014 - January 2015 season. This El Niño will likely remain weak (3-month values of the

Niño-3.4 index between 0.5°C and 0.9°C) throughout its duration.

I am not sure why there is some much negative press regarding El Nino.  The official NOAA Climate Predicition is stating a weak El Nino.  The late fall weather trends have been normal/average and are expected to remain that way for the next 2 months.    

NOAA Climate Discussion for Oct 9^th:  http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf

JM