Summary: Neutral
conditions continued for the month of September. The consensus of
forecasters indicates a 2-in-3 chance (62% chance) of El Niño during the
November 2014 - January 2015 season. This El Niño will likely remain weak
(3-month values of the
Niño-3.4 index between 0.5°C and
0.9°C) throughout its duration.
I am not sure why there is some
much negative press regarding El Nino. The official NOAA Climate
Predicition is stating a weak El Nino. The late fall weather trends have
been normal/average and are expected to remain that way for the next 2 months.
NOAA Climate Discussion for Oct
9th: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf
JM
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