December 18, 2014

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

0730 Thursday:

The Snapshot: 4” of the white stuff on the ground this morning for starters.  Snow tonight, light snow showers tomorrow, heavy snow on Saturday, and rain on Sunday.

The Science:  The frontal systems eagerly discussed this past week are still on track.  Radar has the leading edge of the first front entering Puget Sound this morning and is expected to reach the mountains later today.  Light snow showers will fall ahead of the front and intensify tonight.  This first storm is weakening as it progresses east, hopefully, the Pass will get +-6” of snow by the morning.  A weak high-pressure ridge between storms will move east tomorrow producing a relatively quiet day.  The main event arrives mid day on Saturday with heavy snow changing to rain by early Sunday morning.  2+” of rain is likely on Sunday.  Cooler air aloft arrives Sunday changing the rain back to snow early Monday morning.       

4-7day Long Range:  If luck is with us there could be 12-20” of snow left on the ground by Monday morning.    High pressure builds off of the NW coast starting on Monday – this will produce a dry and cold holiday week. 

Precipitation ending at 4am:

Today’s 24hr Water =.5   Snow = 3-6”

Tomorrow’s 24hr Water= .25+   Snow = 2-4” 

Trend and Timing:
Light snow showers will continue today.  Snow will intensify tonight and change back to light showers tomorrow.  The main push of moisture is expected to arrive mid day on Saturday.

24hr temperature ending at 4am tomorrow: 
Low: 26   High: 34
Freezing level: +- 4500’

Trends and Timing:
Freezing levels will rise to 4500’ today.  East flow will help hold surface temperatures near 32f.   This temperature profile should persist through early Saturday morning.

 
24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4am tomorrow:
Base: 0-5 E
Ridge Top: 0-10 SE    

Trend and Timing:
Weak east flow will remain at the surface.  Ridge top winds will flip-flop from east to west as these fronts move through.




JM

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