8:00 am stsrt Sunday

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

0730 Saturday:

The Snapshot: The clouds have cleared out this morning with dry and stable weather taking shape over the PNW.   An alpenglow wonderland.

The Science:  The PNW is squeezed between a strong high-pressure ridge to the west and a weak low-pressure system tracking south out of Alberta Canada. This will produce a mostly dry weather pattern with the exception of a few weak systems passing through the from time to time.

Long Range: Next week will be mostly dry with low freezing levels on Tuesday and Wednesday, warmer and clear to finish the week.  

Precipitation ending at 4am: Today’s 24hr Water = 0   Snow = 0  Tomorrow’s 24hr Water = .10  Snow = trace Trend and Timing: Dry today, a chance of some light snow early Monday morning.

24hr temperature ending at 4am tomorrow:  Low: 20   High: 34 Freezing level: +- 3000.’ Trends and Timing: Melt freeze temperatures will continue through Monday.

24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4am tomorrow: Base: 5-10 E Ridge Top: 5-15 E   Trend and Timing: East flow today shifting westerly tomorrow.

JM

Start Time Saturday---8am

Start Time Friday 8:30am

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

0630 Thursday:

The Snapshot:  Diminishing snow showers today; dry, clear and colder for the weekend, a couple more inches of snow possible early Monday morning, clear and dry for the remainder of next week.

The Science:  High-pressure stretched out along the waters of the PNW coast will begin to drift southeast over the next few days.   A weak disturbance will make its way through late Sunday night with a chance of some more light snow to start the week. 

Long Range:   Dry and cold arctic air sinking into the intermountain west will filter east early next week with another round of clear and cold weather for the east slopes of the Cascades.  Mostly dry with warming finishes out next week.

Precipitation ending at 4am: Today’s 24hr Water =<.25  Snow = 0-2    Tomorrow’s 24hr Water = >10  Snow =  trace Trend and Timing: Light snow showers will diminish throughout the day.  Dry tomorrow.

24hr temperature ending at 4am tomorrow:  Low: 26   High: 36 Freezing level: 4000’  3000.’ Trends and Timing: The melt/freeze cycle will continue with daytime temperatures recovering into the mid 30’s again today and tomorrow.

24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4am tomorrow: Base: 0-5 NW shifting E Ridge Top: 5-10 NW shifting E   Trend and Timing: East/offshore flow develops tonight and strengthens tomorrow.

JM

Start Time Thursday 8:30am

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

0700 Wednesday:

The Snapshot:  Light mixed rain and snow today through Friday morning, cold and dry for the weekend, snow early Monday, dry next week.

The Science:  This morning’s radar has spotty showers falling in the Skykomish River valley in response to the approaching weather system.  Precipitation is expected to develop over the southern half of Cascades Mountains over the next 12-24hrs.  Stevens is just on the northern edge of the storm track and not expected to receive as much snow as our friends to the south.   Snow totals by Friday morning 3-5” of snow.

Long Range: Another weak system tracking down the BC coast will bring light snow to the Pass late Sunday night into Monday.  High-pressure returns on Tuesday trending the rest of the week dry.

Precipitation ending at 4am: Today’s 24hr Water =.25    Snow = 1-3  Tomorrow’s 24hr Water = .25   Snow = 2-4 Trend and Timing: Light mixed rain and snow today with light snow tonight.  Intermittent showers will persist into Friday morning.

24hr temperature ending at 4am tomorrow:  Low: 30   High: 38 Freezing level: +- 4500.’ Trends and Timing: Freezing levels not expected to fall below 4000’ until Friday.

24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4am tomorrow: Base:0-5 WNW Ridge Top: 5-10 NW    Trend and Timing: Light NW winds will continue today.   East flow develops on Friday.

JM

Start Time Wednesday---8:30am

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

0700 Tuesday:

The Snapshot:   Dry with high clouds moving in later today, a chance of snow tomorrow night through Friday.  Dry for most of the weekend with snow possible Sunday night.

The Science:  High cirrus clouds will move into today in response to the shifting jet stream. NW flow will allow a weak low-pressure system to roll down the BC coast bringing a little snow to the Cascade Mountains starting tomorrow night. Light mixed rain and snow (mostly snow) with freezing levels +-4000’ will continue into Friday morning.  Storm totals are light with only a few inches of snow likely.  

Long Range:  The precipitation tapers off Friday with Saturday and Sunday trending dry, colder and partly sunny.  Another weak system may bring a few more inches of snow late Sunday night into Monday.   

Precipitation ending at 4am: Today’s 24hr Water = 0   Snow =  0 Tomorrow’s 24hr Water =<.25   Snow = 1-2” Trend and Timing: Dry today with light snow beginning tomorrow night.

24hr temperature ending at 4am tomorrow:  Low: 24   High: 40 Freezing level: +- 4000.’ Trends and Timing: This melt freeze cycle will continue today and tomorrow.

24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4am tomorrow: Base: 0-10 NW Ridge Top: 5-10 NW   Trend and Timing: WNW flow will be the general wind pattern through the week.

JM

8:30 am start Tuesday

Young and Proud.

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

0630 Monday:

The Snapshot:  A few more warm spring-like days with some light snow late Wednesday night through Friday.  March arrives dry and cold.    

The Science:  The high-pressure system that has been parked over the PNW will begin to flatten and drift southeast over the next few days.  This will allow cooler NW flow to develop tomorrow with light snow beginning Wednesday night. 

Long Range:  A low-pressure system tracking down the BC coast will keep light snow in the forecast Thursday and Friday.  At this point, storm totals are not impressive with < .5” of water and 2-5” of snow.   The weekend is trending dry and cool.

Precipitation ending at 4am: Today’s 24hr Water =0   Snow =  0 Tomorrow’s 24hr Water = 0  Snow =  0 Trend and Timing: Dry through Wednesday evening.

24hr temperature ending at 4am tomorrow:  Low: 26  High: 48 Freezing level: +-5000.’ Trends and Timing: Warm days and cool nights will continue today and tomorrow.

24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4am tomorrow: Base: 0-5 WNW Ridge Top: 5-10 NW   Trend and Timing: Northwest flow develops today.

JM

8:30 start Monday

8:00 start Sunday

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

0700 Saturday:

The Snapshot:  Dry, clear and cooler today through Tuesday.  

The Science:  A cool, dry airmass sinking into the eastern basin will bring clear skies and cooler temperatures to the mountains today and tomorrow.   Freezing levels will gradually rise to 5000’ by the start of the new week as the high-pressure parks itself off of the PNW coast. 

Long Range:  Most of next week will be dry under a split flow weather pattern.  A system tracking in from the NW will bring a chance of snow on Thursday and then again early next weekend. 

Note: Models disagree greatly on the timing and intensity of the approaching storms, so confidence is low at this time.

Precipitation ending at 4am: Today’s 24hr Water = 0   Snow =  0 Tomorrow’s 24hr Water = 0   Snow =0  Trend and Timing: 0

24hr temperature ending at 4am tomorrow:  Low: 18   High: 34 Freezing level: 4000’  2500.’ Trends and Timing: Temperatures will fall into the teens early tomorrow morning and then recover to +-320 during the day.  Freezing levels will then rise to 5000’ for the start of the new week.

24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4am tomorrow: Base: 5-10 E Ridge Top: 5-10 E   Trend and Timing: Gusty easterly winds develop today.

JM

Start Time Saturday---8am

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

0630 Friday:

The Snapshot:  Light mixed rain and snow will continue today, precipitation diminished tomorrow, dry with cooling through the weekend.  

The Science:  Cool unstable NW flow will allow the light precipitation to persist through the day.  High-pressure building off the NW coast and cold east flow will bring a dry, clear and cold weekend.  Low temperatures by Sunday morning will be in the teens.   

Long Range: A shift to an active NW flow pattern is beginning to take shape for late next week.  The first of a series of storms begins late Wednesday night.    Snow dances….  Note: UW GFS long range models are having trouble booting up this morning.  Update on next week’s storm system tomorrow.  

Precipitation ending at 4am: Today’s 24hr Water = .25   Snow = 1-3  Tomorrow’s 24hr Water = 0  Snow =  0 Trend and Timing: Mixed rain and snow continuing today, tapers off tonight, dry tomorrow.

24hr temperature ending at 4am tomorrow:  Low: 24   High: 34 Freezing level: 4500’   3000.’ Trends and Timing: Freezing levels drop below 4000’ tonight and continue to descend through the weekend.  Low temperatures in the teens by early Sunday morning.

24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4am tomorrow: Base: 0-5 NW shifting E Ridge Top:  5-10 NW shifting W Trend and Timing: Westerly winds shift easterly and strengthen tomorrow.

JM

Start Time Friday 8am Yea thats right 8am

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

0700 Thursday:   

Remembering the three amigo’s – SHRED.     

The Snapshot:  Mixed rain and snow today, dry through the weekend.  

The Science:  A system sliding down the BC coast will bring a period of mixed rain and snow to the Pass today.  Hopefully, it will be mostly snow with cooler air arriving from the north.  A weak PS Convergence Zone could squeeze a few inches of snow out of this system tonight.  A large cold dry airmass sinking into the intermountain west (Montana) will also influence the weather at Stevens Pass over the weekend.   Clear and cold east/offshore flow will drop temperatures into the low teens by Sunday morning.  

Long Range:  Next week will start off cold and dry with a chance of snow by the end of the week.

Precipitation ending at 4am: Today’s 24hr Water = .5   Snow =  2-5 Tomorrow’s 24hr Water = <.25  Snow =  1-2 Trend and Timing: Mixed rain and snow in the base area with mostly snow on the upper mountain will begin today and continue through the night.  Precipitation tapers off tomorrow by noon or so.

24hr temperature ending at 4am tomorrow:  Low:28   High: 36 Freezing level: +-4500.’ Trends and Timing: Freezing levels will hover around 4500’ today and then begin to slowly fall through the night.

24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4am tomorrow: Base: 0-5 WNW Ridge Top:  5-10 WNW Trend and Timing: WNW flow will continue through Friday.  East flow develops and strengthens over the weekend.

JM

IS WHAT I MENT WAS Start Time THURSDAY 8:30am thanks IAN

Start Time Thursday---8am

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

0730 Wednesday:

The Snapshot:   Thickening clouds today, light mixed rain and snow beginning late tonight and lasting into early Saturday morning; dry, clear and colder for the weekend.

The Science: A cold front approaching from the west will bring light rain and snow showers to the mountains for the remainder of the week.  With some luck, +2-4” of snow could be on the ground by early Saturday morning. 

Long Range: High-pressure returns on the weekend for another stretch of dry and clear weather.   Cold air is expected to drop in from the north early next week with low temperatures in the upper teens possible; this will help hold the snowpack in place for awhile longer. 

Precipitation ending at 4am: Today’s 24hr Water = <.25    Snow = trace  Tomorrow’s 24hr Water = .25   Snow = 1-3  Trend and Timing: Light rain showers begin around midnight tonight.  Light mixed rain and snow can be expected through early Saturday morning.

24hr temperature ending at 4am tomorrow:  Low: 30   High: 36 Freezing level: +-4500.’ Trends and Timing: Freezing levels will fall to 4500’ and hover at the elevation for the next 24-48hrs.

24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4am tomorrow: Base: 0-5 WNW Ridge Top: 5-15 WNW   Trend and Timing: Gusty westerly winds will increase this afternoon.  Northwesterly flow is expected to continue for the remainder of the week.

JM