March 12, 2015

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

0715 Thursday:

The Snapshot:   The rain and the wind will diminish today with partly clear condition lasting through tomorrow; rain on the weekend.

The Science:  .33” of water dropped on Stevens Pass during the last 24hrs.  A weak high-pressure ridge building this morning will dry things up through tomorrow.  The next storm system schedule to arrive early Saturday morning is complex with two cut-off lows embedded in a sub-tropical moisture stream.  Therefore, the models are having a hard time nailing down the details and timing.  To complicate things even further, a cold front tracking in from the NW will bring cold air aloft into the mix sometime on Sunday with some snow possible on the back end of the system.  The timing of the all this is still in question so stay tuned.

Weekend storm water equivalents:
4am Saturday – 4am Sunday  +1.”
4am Sunday – 4am Monday     5-.75.    2-4” of snow.

Long Range:  Another high-pressure ridge begins on Monday with a return to dry spring-like weather for most of the upcoming week.   Long-range models have also been fickle, so trust in the forecast is low.


Precipitation ending at 4am:

Today’s 24hr Water = .10   Snow =  0

Tomorrow’s 24hr Water = 0  Snow = 0

Trend and Timing:
Light rain ends this morning, dry through early Saturday morning.


24hr temperature ending at 4am tomorrow: 
Low:  34  High: 48
Freezing level: 8000.’

Trends and Timing:
Freezing levels will remain well above Pass level through Sunday morning.

 
24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4am tomorrow:
Base: 0-10 WSW
Ridge Top: 5-10 SW   

Trend and Timing:
Ridge top winds will diminish today and shift easterly tomorrow.



JM

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