November 10, 2015

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day: 0630 Tuesday

The Snapshot:  Dry with sun breaks today, wind and snow tonight and tomorrow, snow on Thursday changing to heavy rain on Friday/Saturday.

The Science:   Clouds will thicken this afternoon as a cold front approaches the region.  Snow will begin to fall on Stevens Pass after dark and intensify during the early morning hours.  The winds will also be strong with the development of the Puget Sound Convergence Zone (PSCZ).  The PSCZ may be aimed just south of Stevens Pass with the winds coming from the WNW.  Models are beginning to downgrade snowfall amounts with this system producing only 6-10” of snow.  A weak high-pressure ridge between systems will bring and end to the snow Wednesday night with light snow showers lingering into Thursday.   There is a chance to squeeze a few more inches of snow on Thursday before it changes to rain.

Long Range:  Friday and Saturday will be very wet with heavy rain and high freezing levels. Several inches (+5”) of rain will be possible through the weekend.



Precipitation ending at 4am:

Today’s 24hr Water = .25    Snow =  2-4

Tomorrow’s 24hr Water = +-.5  Snow = 3-6

Trend and Timing:
Snow begins tonight and intensifies after midnight tonight.  Convergence conditions may aid in snow amounts. 


24hr temperature ending at 4 am tomorrow: 
Low: 28  High: 34
Freezing level: 4500’  3500.'

Trends and Timing:
Freezing levels will fall below 4000’ with the passing of the front tonight.
A warming trend begins Thursday.

 
24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4 am tomorrow:
Base: 5-15 WNW
Ridge Top:  10-20  NWN  

Trend and Timing:
Westerly winds will be consistent through tomorrow morning. 



JM

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