January 16, 2016

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day: 0700 Saturday

The Snapshot: 3” of new snow reported over night.  Snow, wind and warming today with another similar storm tomorrow.

The Science:  A triple point (warm, cold, occluded) frontal system entering the PNW will bring heavy snow to Stevens Pass today.   Freezing levels will rise to 4500’ in the wake of the warm front that is expected to pass over the mountain in a few hours.  Easterly flow will be overtaken by westerly winds – therefore a bit a rain could be in the mix once that occurs. The following cold front will cut off the moisture stream and drop the freezing levels a few hundred feet late tonight.    

Hit repeat as another similar system arrives early tomorrow morning. There will be a short break between storms with little to no snow expected over night.   Snow begins again tomorrow morning with 6-8” of snow possible.

The Long Range:   MLK day will be relatively quiet with just remnant showers and sun breaks expected. Active weather will continue next week.  The storm track has a SW orientation so expect the approaching storms to continue to be on the warm side. 

Precipitation Ending at 4am:

Today 24hr water =  .75 -1  snow = 8-10

Tomorrow’s 24hr water =  .5-.75 snow = 6-8

Trend and Timing:
There will be a chance of a mixed rain component this afternoon.  The precipitation will end late tonight and return after 4am tomorrow morning.   


24hr temperature ending at 4 am tomorrow: 
                                     
Low:  26   High: 32
Freezing level: +-4500’

Trend and Timing:   
Freezing levels will rise to 4500’ this afternoon and then fall to 4000’ tonight.  Same scenario tomorrow.
 
24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4 am tomorrow:
Base: 5-10 E shifting WSW
Ridge Top: 5-15 – ESW shifting SW

Trend and Timing:
East flow will shift WSW this afternoon and then back to easterly tomorrow morning.   Gusty westerly winds can be expected with the passing of the cold front tonight.




jM

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