January 20, 2016

MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST

Time and Day:  0630 Wednesday

The Snapshot: It’s a bit windy this morning with 40pmh gusts recorded at Tye Mill.  Winds will diminish along with the snow showers today.  A sporty storm with wind, rain and snow will grace the mountains to end the week.

The Science: A high pressure ridge building in behind last night’s little storm will bring an end to the snow this morning.  This morning’s radar still has some showers lifting north; so expect some snow showers to continue this morning with sun breaks later today.  

A strong, complex frontal system developing off of the Oregon coast will bring rising freezing levels and a good dose of moisture to the Cascade Mountains starting early tomorrow morning and lasting into Friday.  Models are struggling with the temperature profile as well as the timing.  So, at this point, we should expect snow beginning early tomorrow morning (+-2am) changing to rain below +-5000’ and then back to snow early Friday morning.   Those details will be refined later today.     

The Long Range:  The weekend is trending mostly dry with more storms expected next week.

Precipitation Ending at 4am:

Today 24hr water = .25 - .5 Snow = 3-5

Tomorrow’s 24hr water = .5-.75  snow = 2-6

Trend and Timing:
Snow begins after midnight and intensifies through the morning.  The mixed rain game should begin around noon or so.  The precipitation will likely diminish tomorrow evening and ramp back up on Friday. 


24hr temperature ending at 4 am tomorrow: 
                                     
Low: 26   High: 32
Freezing level: 3000’ – 5000’

Trend and Timing:   
Freezing levels will rise to +- 4500’ this afternoon.   Temperatures will be on the cusp of the freezing mark with east flow influence through Friday morning.   Freezing levels could peak as high as 5500’ tomorrow afternoon/evening. 

 
24hr Winds (mph) ending at 4 am tomorrow:
Base: 5-10 W shifting E
Ridge Top:  5-15 W shifting W

Trend and Timing:
Winds will begin to taper off this morning and shift easterly tonight.




jM

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